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New York Times
March 26, 2011
A Bounce Isn’t Enough to Recover From a Bubble
By PAUL J. LIM
DESPITE recent volatility in global markets, domestic stocks have doubled in value in the last two years, the fastest such gain since the Great Depression.
And financial shares have fared even better, soaring more than 160 percent since the long stock rally began in March 2009.
But will the broad market in general and financial stocks in particular resume this torrid pace? Perhaps not.
Consider how stocks have fared over a much longer stretch — since the end of the previous bull market, in March 2000. Last Thursday was the 11th anniversary of the bursting of the technology bubble, a reminder of how long it may take investments at the center of a major market plunge to return to their past glory.
For example, though most sectors of the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index are now trading above their levels of March 2000, the overall index is still slightly below where it was then. And technology and telecommunications stocks — the market’s best performers leading up to the 2000-02 bear market — are still down around 60 percent, on average, from their peaks 11 years ago; blue-chip growth stocks are off about 35 percent.
What’s the moral of this story? Don’t count on a complete recovery anytime soon, said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at Standard & Poor’s Equity Research. “It could take 15 years for stocks to work off the effects of a major bubble,” he said.
Mr. Stovall has studied market recovery periods in the years after World War II. He has found that while it usually takes stocks about 14 months to return to previous highs after a mild bear market, and five years, on average, to bounce back from a severe downturn of 40 percent or more, it typically takes even longer to recover from a bubble.
He noted, for example, that after oil prices peaked during the energy bubble in 1980, it took 16 years for some categories of oil-related stocks to recover to their pre-bubble highs. And after gold peaked in 1980 at around $850 an ounce, it took 28 years for the price to return to their pre-bust perch. (Of course, even at $1,426 an ounce, gold still hasn’t recovered to its 1980 levels when adjusted for inflation.)
The reason that recoveries take so long “is that a true bubble occurs only when valuations are taken to extremes, and it usually requires at least two bear markets to bring those valuations back to historic norms,” said James B. Stack, editor of the InvesTech Market Analyst newsletter.
To be sure, one could argue that the valuations of financial shares have never skyrocketed the way those of tech shares did in the late 1990s.
In fact, at the end of 2007, when the global credit bubble had popped, the price-to-earnings ratio for financial stocks stood at around 17, according to Bloomberg. That’s about on par with valuations for the broad market at the time.
Yet that happened because the reported profits of financial companies had soared leading up to the plunge, Mr. Stack said, so that earnings — the “E” in the P/E ratio — generally kept pace with rising prices.
“But in reality,” he said, “many of those earnings were built on artificial sources of income that were not only going to dry up but reversed course when the asset bubble popped.”
Another reason to believe that financials may soon hit a ceiling, Mr. Stack said, is that “there are still too many people waiting to get out” of those shares. In other words, many investors are still holding onto financial stocks not out of faith, but because those shares are still so far below their October 2007 peaks — about 50 percent, on average — that they’ve have been waiting for a bigger rally before selling.
Haven’t financials surged over the last two years? Yes. But Jack A. Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank, notes that since the first three months of this rally — when financial stocks bounced back the most — these shares have actually lagged behind the broad market. Since the start of June 2009, the S.& P. 500 has gained 42 percent, versus just 34 percent for the financial stocks in the index.
Mr. Ablin said that “conditions during this stretch couldn’t have been any better for the banks,” alluding to the government’s efforts to keep short-term interest rates near zero, assuring substantial profits when banks relend that money to customers. “Yet this is all we got to show for it,” he said. “That would suggest that it could take many years for the fundamentals of this sector to recover.”
AS for the broad market, it’s hard to imagine how much longer it can keep up the pace of the last two years, some market strategists say.
Beyond the threat of rising inflation, as well as various geopolitical risks, valuations are becoming stretched. David R. Kotok, chief investment officer at Cumberland Advisors, says a simple way to judge the frothiness of the market is to consider the ratio of total domestic stock market capitalization to gross domestic product. “History says that when stock market capitalization is about 55 percent or 60 percent of G.D.P., stocks are a great bargain, which was the case during the March 2009 lows,” Mr. Kotok said. “But when stocks are 110 percent of G.D.P., it’s time to sell.”
Today, the stock market is worth about 95 percent of G.D.P. “So,” he said, “I don’t believe the market has a large strategic move upward from here in the short term.”
www.nytimes.com/2011/03/27/your-money/27fund.htmlMarch 26, 2011
Fresh reports of violent clashes and midnight raids taking place over the weekend did nothing to stifle a steady stream of traffic through Bahrain's financial district Monday, nor did the continued presence of foreign troops and tanks keep business from re-opening their doors.
"People just want life to go back to normal," one Bahraini businessman tells CNBC.
But as Bahrain's foreign minister quashed speculation of foreign mediation between government and opposition leaders, many investors looked at the country's billion dollar financial industry and saw continued risk.
"It is the intensity of protests in each country and the response of leaders which are determining risk profile. In Bahrain, the military response will have a long term consequence," says Angus Blair, chief economist at Beltone Financial. "What you've got now is a huge lack of trust between a large section of the population and the ruling family."
"In the GCC," says Blair, "we've mostly seen limited concessions with large injections of cash helping to assuage protestors' demands. But since this doesn't equate long term productivity, it may not be enough to quell a growing demand for political change."
Bahrain's index rose .05 percent Monday, while the promise of $93 billion in social spending in Saudi Arabia that buoyed markets through Sunday failed to keep the country's index from slipping .2 percent.
The cost of continuing unrest both economically and politically, says one former member of Bahrain's Shua Council, could be very expensive. Plus allowing for the prospect of an actual physical conflict with the country's neighbors.
"The stability and sustainability of political reforms is in everyone's interest," says Dr. Mansoor M. Al Alarayedh of the Gulf Council on Foreign Relations. "You cannot have political progress in this part of the world by ignoring the religious process. Bahrain is basically the neighbor to the two opposing sects of Islam, it cannot go either way, it must co-exist among them. This is what we aspire to."
Now opposition groups say a "shadow campaign" by security forces has left some 250 people missing despite calls from opposition groups for government action on a proposed national dialogue.
The continued postponement of that dialogue, says Al Alarayedh, will only allow sectarian tensions to gain traction.
"It cannot be monarch or people," says Dr. Al Alarayedh. "It must be a partnership."
Malko,
Du schriebst mehrmals,wer Tschernobyl mit Fukushima vergleiche, der habe keine Ahnung. Sicher, in Fukushima ist kein Graphit im Spiel, aber umsomehr Plutonium(78430.). Falls es zu einer weiteren Explosion kommt (Block 3) und Uran +Plutonium in die Umgebung verbracht wird, bekommt Fukushima eine "andere Qualität", mit vielleicht noch schlimmeren Folgen als nach Tschernobyl.
Zur geologischen Situation in Fukushima:
Falls es zu einer vollständigen Kernschmelze kommt und die Lava sich ins Erdreich frisst, so ist die geologische Situation günstig: Zwischen AKW und Grundwasser liegen 200m Ton-Felsgestein ohne Wasseradern, wo sich die Lava totfressen kann.
http://www.welt.de/wissenschaft/article12834475/...tiv-verseucht.html
@malsomalso (älteres Posting):
Der Fotograf in Tschernobyl hiess Igor Kostin http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Igor_Kostin. Ein Wunder, daß der Mann noch lebt (wenn auch schwer krank): Er hatte, Stunden nach dem Reaktorunfall und ohne Schutzkleidung ( von der radioaktiven Strahlung war ja noch nichts bekannt), in einem Helikopter den Reaktor überflogen und die ersten Bilder gemacht; außerdem war er fünfmal auf dem Reaktordach und war insgesamt einer mehrfachen tödlichen Dosis ausgesetzt. Auf dem Dach wurden in der Spitze 7000 (!) Röntgen gemessen (entspricht ungefähr 70 Sv !)
Dieses und mehr wurde für die Doku "Super-GAU Tschernobyl" (2006) recherchiert:
(ein Mustsee!) 93 min
http://www.videolica.com/videos/sDiThP-JZCA/...omkatastrophe-der-welt
bearisher "Abverkauf" zum Handelsende hin,
Tagesschluss = Tagestief
der Dow wird morgen die MA 50 verläuft bei 12066 bzw. die gebrochene Abwärtstrendlinie von oben testen (Ausbruch aus dem Abwärtstrend könnte eine Art Fake gewesen sein, zumal der S&P 500 heute an der noch bestehenden Abwärtstrendlinie gescheitert ist, bzw. darunter geschlossen hat)
anbei Charts Dow und S&P 500
Ja, es kann sein, dass es Rollverluste, blöde Gebühren und alles mögliche gibt, was dazu führt, das inverse ETFs nicht so "gut" sind, wie normale. Aber die Berechnung die der Herr Kirchner anstellt ist kompletter Quatsch und zeigt mal wieder, wie flach sich die Leute mit der Materie beschäftigen.
Ich zitiere: "Die Tücke steckt in einem unscheinbaren Detail der Prozentrechnung. Notiert etwa der DAX® bei 5000 Punkten und klettert an einem starken Börsentag um 250 Punkte, beträgt der Zugewinn fünf Prozent. Der ShortDAX® würde an diesem Tag fünf Prozent verlieren. Gibt der DAX® allerdings tags darauf seine Gewinne wieder ab und fällt um 250 Punkte auf 5000 Zähler zurück, legt der ShortDAX® an diesem Tag nicht etwa um fünf Prozent zu, die er am Tag zuvor verloren hat. Sein Tagesplus beträgt dann 4,76 Prozent - eben jenen prozentualen Verlust, den der Dax bei einem Rückgang von 5250 auf 5000 Punkte erlitten hat. Ein Rückgang des Dax von 5250 auf 5000 Punkte entspricht nur einem Minus von 4,76 Prozent. "
Warum prozentuale Veränderungen mit Punkten verglichen werden, ist mir nicht ganz klar. Das inverse Berechnen der prozentualen Veränderungen führt doch gerade bei fallenden Märkten dazu, dass ich mit einem Short ETF mehr verdiene als der Index verliert. Bei steigenden Märkten ist es natürlich genau anders herum. Aber ich gehe ja davon aus, dass der Index fällt, wenn ich ein Short ETF kaufe.
| Zeit | DAX Start | DAX Schluss | +-% | ETF Start | ETF Schluss | +-% | |
| Tag1 | 5000,0 | 4500,0 | -10 | 100,0 | 110,0 | +10 | |
| Tag2 | 4500,0 | 4050,0 | -10 | 110,0 | 121,0 | +10 | |
| Tag3 | 4050,0 | 3645,0 | -10 | 121,0 | 133,1 | +10 | |
| Tag4 | 3645,0 | 3280,5 | -10 | 133,1 | 146,4 | +10 | |
| Tag5 | 3280,5 | 3252,5 | -10 | 146,4 | 161,1 | +10 |
Der Dax verliert also in dieser katastrophalen Woche "nur" 40%, aber der Short ETF gewinnt im gleichen Zeitraum "tolle" 60%.
Dazu Zucker nach dem Dow Jones-UBS Sugar Subindex mit dem Short ETC A0V9X9. In den 9 Monaten ist der Index um 50% zusammengebrochen und hat sich dann komplett wieder erholt. Der Short hat zwischendurch 200% plus gemacht und ist danach wieder auf den Startkurs zurückgefallen.
charts.comdirect.de/charts/...mp;WITH_EARNINGS=1&SHOWHL=1" style="max-width:560px" />
The result of nuclide analysis in the stagnant water on the basement floor of the turbine building of each Unit of Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Station
http://www.nisa.meti.go.jp/english/files/en20110327-1-5.pdf
Die Bedeutung des hohen Anteils der Radionukleide mit kurzer Halbwertzeit dürfte doch bekannt sein
Navigator.C
Die Autobranche leidet immer stärker unter den Folgen des Bebens in Japan. Dabei stehen die größten Ausfälle wohl erst noch bevor. Experten sehen die Autoindustrie schon auf die größte Krise aller Zeiten zusteuern.
TokioDie Globalisierung hat der Autoindustrie viele Vorteile gebracht, doch nach der Katastrophe in Japan werden nun die Nachteile weltweit vernetzter Lieferketten sichtbar. Die größten Ausfälle stehen den Autobauern noch bevor. Schon in einer Woche könnten Autokäufer Probleme bekommen, ein Modell in ihrer Wunschfarbe zu bekommen. Tausende Angestellte in der Autoindustrie rund um den Globus werden eine Zwangspause einlegen müssen. Und Unternehmen wie Toyota und Honda werden Milliardenumsätze verlieren.
Der Produktionsausfall kommt mit Zeitverzögerung, weil viele Teile wochenlang in Frachtschiffen auf See sind, bevor sie verarbeitet werden. Manche der Schiffe, die vor dem Erdbeben am 11. März in Japan losgefahren sind, haben ihr Ziel also noch gar nicht erreicht. Außerdem dauert es etwas, bis die Lager erschöpft sind. Der wirkliche Mangel an Teilen wird die Fabriken in den USA, Europa und Asien erst Mitte April treffen.
„Das ist der größte Schock in der Geschichte der Automobilindustrie“, sagt Automobilexperte Koji Endo von der Forschungseinrichtung Advanced Research Japan in Tokio. Ein Großteil der japanischen Autoindustrie steht still. Bei dem Beben und dem nachfolgenden Tsunami wurden zwar nur wenige Fabriken direkt beschädigt. Aber die eingeschränkte Versorgung mit Strom und Wasser bremst die Autobauer aus. Und niemand kann genau sagen, wie lange noch. Manche Experten rechnen damit, dass sich die Produktionsausfälle noch bis in den Sommer ziehen könnten.
Ein führender US-Notenbanker hat vor spürbar geringeren Autoverkäufen in Folge der Erdbebenkatastrophe in Japan gewarnt. Die globale Lieferkette werde durch die Schäden bei japanischen Herstellern beeinträchtigt, sagte der Präsident der Federal Reserve von Chicago, Charles Evans, am Montag. Als Beispiel für ein wahrscheinlich betroffenes Unternehmen nannte Evans das amerikanische BMW- Werk in Spartanburg. Deutsche Hersteller wollen bislang von Produktions- und Lieferengpässen nichts wissen. Verkäufe von Autos haben im vergangen Jahr in den USA dem Handelsministerium zufolge 1,7 Prozent der Verbraucherausgaben ausgemacht.
Chips are disappearing from bags, candy from boxes and vegetables from cans.
As an expected increase in the cost of raw materials looms for late summer, consumers are beginning to encounter shrinking food packages.
With unemployment still high, companies in recent months have tried to camouflage price increases by selling their products in tiny and tinier packages. So far, the changes are most visible at the grocery store, where shoppers are paying the same amount, but getting less.
For Lisa Stauber, stretching her budget to feed her nine children in Houston often requires careful monitoring at the store. Recently, when she cooked her usual three boxes of pasta for a big family dinner, she was surprised by a smaller yield, and she began to suspect something was up.
“Whole wheat pasta had gone from 16 ounces to 13.25 ounces,” she said. “I bought three boxes and it wasn’t enough — that was a little embarrassing. I bought the same amount I always buy, I just didn’t realize it, because who reads the sizes all the time?”
Ms. Stauber, 33, said she began inspecting her other purchases, aisle by aisle. Many canned vegetables dropped to 13 or 14 ounces from 16; boxes of baby wipes went to 72 from 80; and sugar was stacked in 4-pound, not 5-pound, bags, she said.
Five or so years ago, Ms. Stauber bought 16-ounce cans of corn. Then they were 15.5 ounces, then 14.5 ounces, and the size is still dropping. “The first time I’ve ever seen an 11-ounce can of corn at the store was about three weeks ago, and I was just floored,” she said. “It’s sneaky, because they figure people won’t know.”
In every economic downturn in the last few decades, companies have reduced the size of some products, disguising price increases and avoiding comparisons on same-size packages, before and after an increase. Each time, the marketing campaigns are coy; this time, the smaller versions are “greener” (packages good for the environment) or more “portable” (little carry bags for the takeout lifestyle) or “healthier” (fewer calories).
Where companies cannot change sizes — as in clothing or appliances — they have warned that prices will be going up, as the costs of cotton, energy, grain and other raw materials are rising.
“Consumers are generally more sensitive to changes in prices than to changes in quantity,” John T. Gourville, a marketing professor at Harvard Business School, said. “And companies try to do it in such a way that you don’t notice, maybe keeping the height and width the same, but changing the depth so the silhouette of the package on the shelf looks the same. Or sometimes they add more air to the chips bag or a scoop in the bottom of the peanut butter jar so it looks the same size.”
Thomas J. Alexander, a finance professor at Northwood University, said that businesses had little choice these days when faced with increases in the costs of their raw goods. “Companies only have pricing power when wages are also increasing, and we’re not seeing that right now because of the high unemployment,” he said.
Most companies reduce products quietly, hoping consumers are not reading labels too closely.
But the downsizing keeps occurring. A can of Chicken of the Sea albacore tuna is now packed at 5 ounces, instead of the 6-ounce version still on some shelves, and in some cases, the 5-ounce can costs more than the larger one. Bags of Doritos, Tostitos and Fritos now hold 20 percent fewer chips than in 2009, though a spokesman said those extra chips were just a “limited time” offer.
Trying to keep customers from feeling cheated, some companies are introducing new containers that, they say, have terrific advantages — and just happen to contain less product.
Kraft is introducing “Fresh Stacks” packages for its Nabisco Premium saltines and Honey Maid graham crackers. Each has about 15 percent fewer crackers than the standard boxes, but the price has not changed. Kraft says that because the Fresh Stacks include more sleeves of crackers, they are more portable and “the packaging format offers the benefit of added freshness,” said Basil T. Maglaris, a Kraft spokesman, in an e-mail.
And Procter & Gamble is expanding its “Future Friendly” products, which it promotes as using at least 15 percent less energy, water or packaging than the standard ones.
“They are more environmentally friendly, that’s true — but they’re also smaller,” said Paula Rosenblum, managing partner for retail systems research at Focus.com, an online specialist network. “They announce it as great new packaging, and in fact what it is is smaller packaging, smaller amounts of the product,” she said.
Or marketers design a new shape and size altogether, complicating any effort to comparison shop. The unwrapped Reese’s Minis, which were introduced in February, are smaller than the foil-wrapped Miniatures. They are also more expensive — $0.57 an ounce at FreshDirect, versus $0.37 an ounce for the individually wrapped.
At H. J. Heinz, prices on ketchup, condiments, sauces and Ore-Ida products have already gone up, and the company is selling smaller-than-usual versions of condiments, like 5-ounce bottles of items like Heinz 57 Sauce sold at places like Dollar General.
“I have never regretted raising prices in the face of significant cost pressures, since we can always course-correct if the outcome is not as we expected,” Heinz’s chairman and chief executive, William R. Johnson, said last month.
While companies have long adjusted package sizes to appeal to changing tastes, from supersizes to 100-calorie packs, the recession drove a lot of corporations to think small. The standard size for Edy’s ice cream went from 2 liters to 1.5 in 2008. And Tropicana shifted to a 59-ounce carton rather than a 64-ounce one last year, after the cost of oranges rose.
With prices for energy and for raw materials like corn, cotton and sugar creeping up and expected to surge later this year, companies are barely bothering to cover up the shrinking packs.
“Typically, the product manufacturers are doing this slightly ahead of the perceived inflationary issues,” Ms. Rosenblum said. “Lately, it hasn’t been subtle — I mean, they’ve been shrinking by noticeable amounts.”
That can work to a company’s benefit. In the culture of thinness, smaller may be a selling point. It lets retailers honestly claim, for example, that a snack package contains fewer calories — without having to change the ingredients a smidge.
“For indulgences like ice cream, chocolate and potato chips, consumers may say ‘I don’t mind getting a little bit less because I shouldn’t be consuming so much anyway,’ ” said Professor Gourville. “That’s a harder argument to make with something like diapers or orange juice.”
But even while companies blame the recession for smaller packages, they rarely increase sizes in good times, he said.
He traced the shrinking package trends to the late 1980s, when companies like Chock full o’ Nuts downsized the one-pound tin of ground coffee to 13 ounces. That shocked consumers, for whom a pound of coffee had been as standard a purchase unit as a dozen eggs or a six-pack of beer, he said.
Once the economy rebounds, he said, a new “jumbo” size product typically emerges, at an even higher cost per ounce. Then the gradual shrinking process of all package sizes begins anew, he said.
“It’s a continuous cycle, where at some point the smallest package offered becomes so small that perhaps they’re phased out and replaced by the medium-size package, which has been shrunk down,” he said.
US-Autoherstellern gehen die Farben aus
Nach dem Erdbeben in Japan musste der Chemiekonzern Merck seine Pigmentproduktion einstellen. US-Autofirmen haben jetzt ein Problem. mehr...
Bereits gestern war die Tepco-Aktie um 17 % eingebrochen. Ich hatte
gewarnt, dass Tepco kein antizyklisches "Schnäppchen" ist
wie letztes Jahr BP. Heute verlor Tepco nochmals 18,63 %, ehe die Aktie vom Handel ausgesetzt wurde. Grund für den Abverkauf sind
Pläne Japans, Tepco zu verstaatlichen.
Kurs von Tepco über die letzten 5 Handelstage. Vor dem GAU stand das Papier bei 2200 Yen, aktuell bei 566.
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