erläutere das bitte kurz. was ist das konkret? Short Interest im Russell?
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Der USA Bären-Thread
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Zugriffe: 22.503.861 / Heute: 2.101
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Die Börsen in Japan kämpfen weiter mit den Folgen der Finanzkrise: Nach anfänglichen Gewinnen schloss der Markt im Minus. Die japanische Notenbank pumpt erneut Milliardensummen in das Finanzsystem.
Analysten werteten die Zinssenkungen zwar als wichtiges Signal, um Vertrauen zu schaffen. Ob damit die quasi zum Erliegen gekommene Kreditvergabe der Banken untereinander aber wieder in Gang komme, sei ungewiss. "Das, was wehtut, ist die Vertrauenskrise - die Leute sind nicht bereit, Geld auszuleihen", sagte Peter Jankovskis von OakBrook Investments LLC.
Die japanische Zentralbank kündigte zudem an, weitere vier Billionen Yen (rund 30 Milliarden Euro) in die Finanzmärkte pumpen zu wollen. Das war die bislang größte Tagesoperation zur Bereitstellung zusätzlicher Liquidität. Auf diese Weise versucht die Zentralbank die Kosten für kurzfristige Kredite im Interbankengeschäft zu drücken, um die Institute des Landes
www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/0,1518,583066,00.html
Analysten werteten die Zinssenkungen zwar als wichtiges Signal, um Vertrauen zu schaffen. Ob damit die quasi zum Erliegen gekommene Kreditvergabe der Banken untereinander aber wieder in Gang komme, sei ungewiss. "Das, was wehtut, ist die Vertrauenskrise - die Leute sind nicht bereit, Geld auszuleihen", sagte Peter Jankovskis von OakBrook Investments LLC.
Die japanische Zentralbank kündigte zudem an, weitere vier Billionen Yen (rund 30 Milliarden Euro) in die Finanzmärkte pumpen zu wollen. Das war die bislang größte Tagesoperation zur Bereitstellung zusätzlicher Liquidität. Auf diese Weise versucht die Zentralbank die Kosten für kurzfristige Kredite im Interbankengeschäft zu drücken, um die Institute des Landes
www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/0,1518,583066,00.html
Die Waffe eines echten Demokraten ist stets das Argument, NIEMALS das Verbot!
--> www.vorkriegsgeschichte.de/ <--
--> www.vorkriegsgeschichte.de/ <--
die den Russell-2000-Index abbildet und die man wie eine gewöhnliche Aktie an den US-Börsen kaufen kann. Umsatz: mehrere Millionen pro Tag, sehr kleiner Spread.
TWM gehört zu einer ganze Gruppe von ETFs (exchange traded funds), den so genannten proshares.
www.proshares.com/funds
Sie haben alle einen doppelten Hebel.
Die bekanntesten 2x-"Ultra"-Shorts
TWM (auf Russell-2000)
SDS (auf SP-500)
QID (auf Nasdaq)
SKF (auf US-Banken)
DUG (auf US-Öl- und Energie-Aktien) - die hatte ich im Sommer länger
Es gibt auch 2x-"Ultra"-Longs
SSO (auf SP-500)
QLD (auf Nasdaq)
UYG (auf US-Banken)
DIG (auf US-Öl- und Energie-Aktien)
Wie Du in meinem obigen Chart siehst, war TWM in den letzten Wochen äußerst ergiebig. Achtung Bären, es gibt immer auch Chancen auf der Long-Seite!
TWM gehört zu einer ganze Gruppe von ETFs (exchange traded funds), den so genannten proshares.
www.proshares.com/funds
Sie haben alle einen doppelten Hebel.
Die bekanntesten 2x-"Ultra"-Shorts
TWM (auf Russell-2000)
SDS (auf SP-500)
QID (auf Nasdaq)
SKF (auf US-Banken)
DUG (auf US-Öl- und Energie-Aktien) - die hatte ich im Sommer länger
Es gibt auch 2x-"Ultra"-Longs
SSO (auf SP-500)
QLD (auf Nasdaq)
UYG (auf US-Banken)
DIG (auf US-Öl- und Energie-Aktien)
Wie Du in meinem obigen Chart siehst, war TWM in den letzten Wochen äußerst ergiebig. Achtung Bären, es gibt immer auch Chancen auf der Long-Seite!
Ich glaube eine Frist beim Sentiment zu setzen ist zwar möglich aber unrealistisch(max. Frist wäre ja 100%Bären unabhängig vom Zeitfaktor)es gilt hier eher nach Korrelationen/Wendepunkten zwischen Kurs und Sentiment zu suchen. Natürlich kann das Sentiment je nach Anbieter auch im Extrembereich bleiben(siehe II Beispiel) und genau deshalb sollten ja möglichst viele von einander unabhängige Infos mit dem Markt/Kurs korrelieren um ein akzeptables CRV zu finden.
Es kann natürlich ein L-Boden / Seitwärtsbewegung kommen bei dem sich das Sentiment erholt aber für einen intakten Bärenmarkt wäre so etwas eher unüblich.Deinen L-Boden sehe ich eher als mögliche Variante am Ende des Bärenmarktes wobei auch hier gesagt werden muß das ein anschließender Seitwärtsmarkt ja unter Schwankungen abläuft und auch hier das Sentiment zwischen Angst und Gier pendelt aber vermutlich dann mit anderen Wendemarken als aktuell bzw. andere Sentimentindikartoren als die jetztigen dann funktionieren.
Es kann natürlich ein L-Boden / Seitwärtsbewegung kommen bei dem sich das Sentiment erholt aber für einen intakten Bärenmarkt wäre so etwas eher unüblich.Deinen L-Boden sehe ich eher als mögliche Variante am Ende des Bärenmarktes wobei auch hier gesagt werden muß das ein anschließender Seitwärtsmarkt ja unter Schwankungen abläuft und auch hier das Sentiment zwischen Angst und Gier pendelt aber vermutlich dann mit anderen Wendemarken als aktuell bzw. andere Sentimentindikartoren als die jetztigen dann funktionieren.
Schwarzer Tag für Leute, die dort Einlagen hatten
www.ftd.de/unternehmen/finanzdienstleister/...hbar/423939.html
www.ftd.de/unternehmen/finanzdienstleister/...hbar/423939.html
Das mit der Frist war ein Scherz. Wir können uns glaub ich darauf einigen, dass Sentiment-Indikatoren zurzeit weniger aufschlussreich sind als in gewöhnlichen Bärenmärkten (ohne globales Bankensterben, Staatenpleiten u. ä.).
genau. Das ist ein Hanging Man im Short-Russell.
Das schreit nach LONG!
Das schreit nach LONG!
meinte "Börse online".
Fakt ist: Das Geld ist futsch (# 30930)
Ich hab die Webseite - der blanke Hohn - mal als Screenshot kopiert, für den Fall, dass sie demnächst nicht mehr erreichbar ist (wie die Konten jetzt schon).
Hier der Link: www.kaupthingedge.de/produkte
Fakt ist: Das Geld ist futsch (# 30930)
Ich hab die Webseite - der blanke Hohn - mal als Screenshot kopiert, für den Fall, dass sie demnächst nicht mehr erreichbar ist (wie die Konten jetzt schon).
Hier der Link: www.kaupthingedge.de/produkte
(Verkleinert auf 75%) 
meine zwei Aktienpositionen wieder geschmissen;
außer Spesen nix gewesen
außer Spesen nix gewesen
George Soros, the prominent financier, avoids using the financial contracts known as derivatives “because we don’t really understand how they work.” Felix G. Rohatyn, the investment banker who saved New York from financial catastrophe in the 1970s, described derivatives as potential “hydrogen bombs.”
And Warren E. Buffett presciently observed five years ago that derivatives were “financial weapons of mass destruction, carrying dangers that, while now latent, are potentially lethal.”
One prominent financial figure, however, has long thought otherwise. And his views held the greatest sway in debates about the regulation and use of derivatives — exotic contracts that promised to protect investors from losses, thereby stimulating riskier practices that led to the financial crisis. For more than a decade, the former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has fiercely objected whenever derivatives have come under scrutiny in Congress or on Wall Street. “What we have found over the years in the marketplace is that derivatives have been an extraordinarily useful vehicle to transfer risk from those who shouldn’t be taking it to those who are willing to and are capable of doing so,” Mr. Greenspan told the Senate Banking Committee in 2003. “We think it would be a mistake” to more deeply regulate the contracts, he added.
Today, with the world caught in an economic tempest that Mr. Greenspan recently described as “the type of wrenching financial crisis that comes along only once in a century,” his faith in derivatives remains unshaken.The problem is not that the contracts failed, he says. Rather, the people using them got greedy. A lack of integrity spawned the crisis, he argued in a speech a week ago at Georgetown University, intimating that those peddling derivatives were not as reliable as “the pharmacist who fills the prescription ordered by our physician.”
But others hold a starkly different view of how global markets unwound, and the role that Mr. Greenspan played in setting up this unrest.
“Clearly, derivatives are a centerpiece of the crisis, and he was the leading proponent of the deregulation of derivatives,” said Frank Partnoy, a law professor at the University of San Diego and an expert on financial regulation.
The derivatives market is $531 trillion, up from $106 trillion in 2002 and a relative pittance just two decades ago. Theoretically intended to limit risk and ward off financial problems, the contracts instead have stoked uncertainty and actually spread risk amid doubts about how companies value them.
If Mr. Greenspan had acted differently during his tenure as Federal Reserve chairman from 1987 to 2006, many economists say, the current crisis might have been averted or muted.Over the years, Mr. Greenspan helped enable an ambitious American experiment in letting market forces run free. Now, the nation is confronting the consequences.
Derivatives were created to soften — or in the argot of Wall Street, “hedge” — investment losses. For example, some of the contracts protect debt holders against losses on mortgage securities..........
und 4 weitere Seiten zum Selberblättern
www.nytimes.com/2008/10/09/business/...nspan.html?ref=business
And Warren E. Buffett presciently observed five years ago that derivatives were “financial weapons of mass destruction, carrying dangers that, while now latent, are potentially lethal.”
One prominent financial figure, however, has long thought otherwise. And his views held the greatest sway in debates about the regulation and use of derivatives — exotic contracts that promised to protect investors from losses, thereby stimulating riskier practices that led to the financial crisis. For more than a decade, the former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has fiercely objected whenever derivatives have come under scrutiny in Congress or on Wall Street. “What we have found over the years in the marketplace is that derivatives have been an extraordinarily useful vehicle to transfer risk from those who shouldn’t be taking it to those who are willing to and are capable of doing so,” Mr. Greenspan told the Senate Banking Committee in 2003. “We think it would be a mistake” to more deeply regulate the contracts, he added.
Today, with the world caught in an economic tempest that Mr. Greenspan recently described as “the type of wrenching financial crisis that comes along only once in a century,” his faith in derivatives remains unshaken.The problem is not that the contracts failed, he says. Rather, the people using them got greedy. A lack of integrity spawned the crisis, he argued in a speech a week ago at Georgetown University, intimating that those peddling derivatives were not as reliable as “the pharmacist who fills the prescription ordered by our physician.”
But others hold a starkly different view of how global markets unwound, and the role that Mr. Greenspan played in setting up this unrest.
“Clearly, derivatives are a centerpiece of the crisis, and he was the leading proponent of the deregulation of derivatives,” said Frank Partnoy, a law professor at the University of San Diego and an expert on financial regulation.
The derivatives market is $531 trillion, up from $106 trillion in 2002 and a relative pittance just two decades ago. Theoretically intended to limit risk and ward off financial problems, the contracts instead have stoked uncertainty and actually spread risk amid doubts about how companies value them.
If Mr. Greenspan had acted differently during his tenure as Federal Reserve chairman from 1987 to 2006, many economists say, the current crisis might have been averted or muted.Over the years, Mr. Greenspan helped enable an ambitious American experiment in letting market forces run free. Now, the nation is confronting the consequences.
Derivatives were created to soften — or in the argot of Wall Street, “hedge” — investment losses. For example, some of the contracts protect debt holders against losses on mortgage securities..........
und 4 weitere Seiten zum Selberblättern
www.nytimes.com/2008/10/09/business/...nspan.html?ref=business
Rev Shark Blog
Regardless of Your Position, Have a Plan
By Rev Shark
Street.com Contributor
10/9/2008 8:26 AM EDT
It is always important to have a strategy for dealing with the market, but it is more important than ever as we undergo a truly historic downtrend. These last couple of weeks will likely be the worst action many of us will ever face when it comes to investing. No matter how you have been positioned, you likely have had some very strong emotional responses to these dramatic events. Even if you have avoided major losses, you are going to wonder about the whole process of investing and whether you will ever be able to trust the market again.
The root cause of the most severe problems investors are facing is that they simply ignored the fact that the market was in a downtrend. It simply wasn't deemed important, which is what traditional Wall Street would have you believe. In fact, the market had been sinking for nearly a year before it accelerated even lower in the last couple weeks. If you simply honored that fact, you would be safe and sound.
Unfortunately, the vast majority of investors don't respect the power of a trend. When the market is in a downtrend, about 70%-80% of stocks will decline, and as we've seen recently, it can be a far higher percentage. Investors like to believe that their stocks will somehow be immune. They want to believe that the market is irrational, and that it will soon come to its senses so the stocks they are holding will go back up. Inertia sets in, and we do nothing. The big problem is that the market's irrationality can last far longer than we can remain solvent, as the economist John Maynard Keynes once said.
For many months, I've been preaching the gospel of Shark Investing, which is to respect and honor the trend. You don't want to hold stocks unless the trend is in your favor. I've been very pleased to hear from many readers who have followed this advice and are unscathed by the worst financial panic since the Great Depression.
If you are still holding plenty of cash, which I hope you are, you have fantastic flexibility that will pay off big in the near future. You might use a small amount of capital to play the bounce game in this grossly oversold market, like I have been talking about lately, but mostly, you should just continue to stay defensive and let the market eventually find a bottom.
What is extremely important is that you not be in a big rush to put money to work. Of course, the media pundits will encourage you to do just that, but ignore them just like you did during all of those prior bottom calls. There will be plenty of time to catch the next major uptrend when it starts. You just have to make sure you keep your capital safe for now.
More difficult decisions face those who have been riding stocks down during this downtrend. It is incredibly frustrating to listen to market "experts" who have urged us to stay bullish during this months-long downtrend, and then hear them tell us to sell and lock in 20%-30% losses or more as we hit newer and deeper lows. What happened to their averaging-down strategy and assurances that things would bounce back? What happened to those proclamations that the bottom is in, and we have seen the lows?
It is incredibly frustrating, and the natural inclination of many is to either do nothing, or sell everything and give up on the market. I hope you don't do that.
My advice to those of you who are still heavily long is to do some selling and not worry about locking in a loss. The important thing is to break the "buy and hold" psychology that has kept you holding stocks in a nasty downtrend. You have to change the way you think if you want to be a successful investor.
The first step in doing that is to realize how easy it is to sell and rebuy. Selling is nothing more than a very cheap form of insurance. You can undo it with minimum cost, even if you have to buy stocks a bit higher.
I assure you that the stocks you held on the way down will not be the best ones to make up your losses on the way up. You are most likely emotionally invested in many of those stocks, and are having a hard time selling because it is not just a loss of money, but a personal defeat.
So do some selling and reclaim your flexibility and balance. I'm hopeful that we will have a little bit of a relief rally soon that will allow you to reposition, but make sure you have a plan and are ready to implement it.
The tone of the market this morning is a bit more positive. Overseas markets continue to be tremendously volatile, and investors are badly shaken. But the news flow is a bit calmer, and there are some signs that we are sifting through the wreckage and becoming more strategic in their thinking. I'm excited about the opportunities that await us. Just make sure you have capital so you can enjoy them.
Regardless of Your Position, Have a Plan
By Rev Shark
Street.com Contributor
10/9/2008 8:26 AM EDT
It is always important to have a strategy for dealing with the market, but it is more important than ever as we undergo a truly historic downtrend. These last couple of weeks will likely be the worst action many of us will ever face when it comes to investing. No matter how you have been positioned, you likely have had some very strong emotional responses to these dramatic events. Even if you have avoided major losses, you are going to wonder about the whole process of investing and whether you will ever be able to trust the market again.
The root cause of the most severe problems investors are facing is that they simply ignored the fact that the market was in a downtrend. It simply wasn't deemed important, which is what traditional Wall Street would have you believe. In fact, the market had been sinking for nearly a year before it accelerated even lower in the last couple weeks. If you simply honored that fact, you would be safe and sound.
Unfortunately, the vast majority of investors don't respect the power of a trend. When the market is in a downtrend, about 70%-80% of stocks will decline, and as we've seen recently, it can be a far higher percentage. Investors like to believe that their stocks will somehow be immune. They want to believe that the market is irrational, and that it will soon come to its senses so the stocks they are holding will go back up. Inertia sets in, and we do nothing. The big problem is that the market's irrationality can last far longer than we can remain solvent, as the economist John Maynard Keynes once said.
For many months, I've been preaching the gospel of Shark Investing, which is to respect and honor the trend. You don't want to hold stocks unless the trend is in your favor. I've been very pleased to hear from many readers who have followed this advice and are unscathed by the worst financial panic since the Great Depression.
If you are still holding plenty of cash, which I hope you are, you have fantastic flexibility that will pay off big in the near future. You might use a small amount of capital to play the bounce game in this grossly oversold market, like I have been talking about lately, but mostly, you should just continue to stay defensive and let the market eventually find a bottom.
What is extremely important is that you not be in a big rush to put money to work. Of course, the media pundits will encourage you to do just that, but ignore them just like you did during all of those prior bottom calls. There will be plenty of time to catch the next major uptrend when it starts. You just have to make sure you keep your capital safe for now.
More difficult decisions face those who have been riding stocks down during this downtrend. It is incredibly frustrating to listen to market "experts" who have urged us to stay bullish during this months-long downtrend, and then hear them tell us to sell and lock in 20%-30% losses or more as we hit newer and deeper lows. What happened to their averaging-down strategy and assurances that things would bounce back? What happened to those proclamations that the bottom is in, and we have seen the lows?
It is incredibly frustrating, and the natural inclination of many is to either do nothing, or sell everything and give up on the market. I hope you don't do that.
My advice to those of you who are still heavily long is to do some selling and not worry about locking in a loss. The important thing is to break the "buy and hold" psychology that has kept you holding stocks in a nasty downtrend. You have to change the way you think if you want to be a successful investor.
The first step in doing that is to realize how easy it is to sell and rebuy. Selling is nothing more than a very cheap form of insurance. You can undo it with minimum cost, even if you have to buy stocks a bit higher.
I assure you that the stocks you held on the way down will not be the best ones to make up your losses on the way up. You are most likely emotionally invested in many of those stocks, and are having a hard time selling because it is not just a loss of money, but a personal defeat.
So do some selling and reclaim your flexibility and balance. I'm hopeful that we will have a little bit of a relief rally soon that will allow you to reposition, but make sure you have a plan and are ready to implement it.
The tone of the market this morning is a bit more positive. Overseas markets continue to be tremendously volatile, and investors are badly shaken. But the news flow is a bit calmer, and there are some signs that we are sifting through the wreckage and becoming more strategic in their thinking. I'm excited about the opportunities that await us. Just make sure you have capital so you can enjoy them.
Ambrose Evans- Pritchard bekannt für seinen Euroskeptizismus
www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/...-bail-out-the-euro.html
sorry mein Welpe winselt und will raus
www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/...-bail-out-the-euro.html
sorry mein Welpe winselt und will raus
wer im Glashaus sitzt ...
Who is going to bail out the islandmonkeydollar?
Who is going to bail out the islandmonkeydollar?
Die in den letzten Tagen bei 70 pro Tag aus-toppte. Nun sind alle Sterntaler plötzlich weg. :o((
Ähnlich wie das Tagesgeld bei Haupthing oder die Börsengewinne aus 2007.
Aber man darf den Kopf nicht hängen lassen:
HaupSACHE man hat bzw. hatte Spaß.
"Money comes and goes, life only goes..."
Ich erinnere mich noch, wie vor zwei Jahren in einem Ariva-Bond-Thread Anleihen von GM wegen ihrer hohen Zinsen empfohlen wurden. Das ist eine ähnliche "Value-Falle" wie Tagesgeld bei der isländischen Kaupthing-Bank (# 30933).
In beiden Fällen ist/wird das Geld futsch sein.
In beiden Fällen ist/wird das Geld futsch sein.
ruft weiter den Botton aus (jetzt komplett long); so ganz glauben möchte ich nicht dran, aber wie gesagt in den letzten Monaten mit gutem Händchen:
benbittrolff.blogspot.com/2008/10/...fast-its-that-simple.html
benbittrolff.blogspot.com/2008/10/...fast-its-that-simple.html
"rot" schließen, wird es langsam höchste Eisenbahn die gesamte Literatur über den technischen Aberglaube zu Börsen, abzufackeln. Die war mir immer schon suspekt. Da gibt es Begriffe, da meint man es gebe nur Verkäufer und nicht gleichzeitig gleichviele Käufer. Und müsste nicht längstens doch eine technische Reaktion bei momentanen Sentiment erfolgen? Die Wahlrallye lässt auch auf sich warten. Nur das Wetter ist ideal um schöne Berghütten, mit nicht zu anstrengendem Zugang, zu besuchen. Steht morgen auf dem Programm
www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/0,1518,583069,00.html
im SP-500 vermutlich endet? Ich erinnere mich an Werte um 700, dann wäre nach unten noch 30 % Luft.
noch negativ auf negative News (16h Großhandel);
solange scheint noch negatives Überraschungpotential vorhanden zu sein. Erst wenn es bei negativen News nicht mehr sinkt, ist der Markt ausgebombt.
sondern buchstäblich eine Kursfrage. Bei 700 im SP-500 könnte dieser Punkt mMn erreicht sein.
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