Wenn Fannie und Freddie nach Bear Stearns pleite gehen, werden sich - wie üblich - auch einige Bullen finden, die dies als "Kaufsignal" werten. Begründung: Bislang ENDETE jede Krise damit, dass eine oder zwei Großbanken pleite gehen.
Das scheint mir jedoch recht schematisch. Das Problem hat Manning in # 27097 detailliert:
"The FDIC currently has over 90 banks in the U.S. on their watch list for risk of failure, and no one really knows how large this list should really be.
That list could be much larger if the Fed decides not to protect the preferred shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. This would be devastating to hundreds of banks across the U.S. that are loaded up with this paper. With banks already in jeopardy from the losses on residential mortgages,
the added burden of more writedowns and losses on these preferred shares would likely be devastating. Another risk that no one is talking about is the commercial real-estate mortgage market..."
Bei einer Pleite bzw. einer Staatsübernahme würde der common stock von FNM/FRE wertlos. Die Bonds der beiden würden sich wegen der US-Staatsgarantie vermutlich nahe 100 % halten, evtl. mit kleinem Abschlag. Bei den preferred shares gab es in letzter Zeit auffallende Abverkäufe, die noch stärker ausfielen als beim common stock. Fürchtet etwa auch dort jemand Totalverlust?
Fannie, Freddie: Beyond the Balance Sheetsby: Lockstep Investing posted on: August 24, 2008 | about stocks: FNM / FRE
From Kings 1, 19:11-13:
The LORD said, "Go out and stand on the mountain in the presence of the LORD, for the LORD is about to pass by. Then a great and powerful wind tore the mountains apart and shattered the rocks before the LORD, but the LORD was not in the wind. After the wind there was an earthquake, but the LORD was not in the earthquake. 12 After the earthquake came a fire, but the LORD was not in the fire. And after the fire came a gentle whisper. 13 When Elijah heard it, he pulled his cloak over his face and went out and stood at the mouth of the cave.
The story of Elijah is a spiritual example of how investors need to demonstrate discipline and discernment. Each of the seemingly apocalyptic events that occurred in front of Elijah could have caused him to react prematurely or fear something not worthy of fear.
On a much more worldly level, such is the case with Freddie Mac (FRE) and Fannie Mae (FNM) preferred shares. In the past few months, the din of negative assessments of the GSEs situation has been deafening. Stories of representatives of foreign sovereign financial institutions calling Paulson himself to explicitly guarantee the US government financial backing for the FRE and FNM are accepted as truth. There has been an unprecedented selling of FRE and FNM preferred share securities, over $12B worth, in just a few weeks. For any smaller or non-government entity, this would be a sign that the corporation was worth no more than junk.
Even more telling are estimates regarding the net worth of GSEs. By many mark to market measures, there is negative net worth to the organizations. No one really disputes this, but many market participants expect that this is grounds to seek bankruptcy proceedings for these entities. The roar of the critics and investors disillusioned by the state of the credit markets expecting honest reporting and vindication for predictions of this outcome of easy credit is deafening.
Yet this is all noise. The authority, the US government, has completely different agenda. The US government must maintain the stability of the US and implicitly the US housing and credit markets. The calculation of the net worth of FRE and FNM completely discounts the goodwill value of having a government organ able to keep mortgage markets from freezing up completely and starting the economy in a free fall. To the government, FRE and FNM are one of the few remaining levers to keep the markets moving. How much is that worth? In a whisper, that value is beyond the value of any bailout cost in dollar terms.
seekingalpha.com/article/...-freddie-beyond-the-balance-sheets
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