Der USA Bären-Thread

Wenn das passiert, kommt es mit hoher Wahrscheinlichkeit wieder schnell zu Exzessen an den Finanzmärkten. Die extrem hohen Profite von Goldman Sachs zeigen uns, dass das Schattenbanksystem immer noch existiert und floriert. Auch einigen Hedge-Fonds geht es sehr gut. All diese Institutionen profitieren enorm von den niedrigen Zinsen, und sie werden neue Produkte auf den Markt werfen - wenn auch keine Subprime-Produkte -, die die Risikotransformation in der Zukunft gewährleisten….

Bob Prechter: Inflation Not a Problem, Deflationary Depression in Our Future

….But like President Bush declaring "Mission Accomplished" in 2003, Elliott Wave International founder, Bob Prechter thinks Krugman and Bernanke are premature in declaring victory over the credit crunch. Prechter tells Tech Ticker "the march towards depression, which is being fueled by deflationary trend, is pretty well intact."

So forget all you've heard about recovery and inflation, "we've only seen the first phase," of the downturn according to Prechter. Next to come, is "a credit implosion" that will once again destroy the value of stocks, commodities and especially real estate. "The biggest area of overvaluation because of credit extension is the real estate area," he says. "And if you'll notice that’s the area that's had the weakest of any kind of attempt at a recovery."

When this next phase of "deflationary depression" happens the only investment advice he can give is: safety first. "Make sure as an individual you're in the safest possible investments so you can ride this out."

Prechter, der im Februar d.J. eindringlich zu dem Ausstieg aus Shorts geraten hatte, sieht nach der von ihm seinerzeit richtigerweise prophezeiten Rally den nächsten fetten Downmove auf die Börsen zurollen, welcher die März-Tiefs noch unterbieten soll. Die Videos mit den Prechter Interviews sind unter dem unten beigefügten Link komplett einsehbar. Interessant hier auch Prechters "Why the Dollar will gain in Value"

Next Wave Down Will Be Bigger and March Lows Will Be Break

In late February, Robert Prechter of Elliott Wave International said "cover your shorts," and predicted a sharp rally that would take the S&P into the 1000 to 1100 range.

With that prediction having come to pass, Prechter is now saying investors should "step aside" from long positions, and speculators should "start looking at the short side."

"The big question is whether the rally is over," Prechter says, suggesting "countertrend moves can be tricky" to predict. But the veteran market watcher is "quite sure the next wave down is going to be larger than what we've already experienced," and take major averages well below their March 2009 lows.

Yes, the late 2007-early 2009 market debacle was just a warm-up to what Prechter believes will be the bear market's main attraction. In this regard, he says the current cycle will echo past post-bubble periods such as America in the 1930s and England in the 1720s, after the bursting of the South Sea bubble.

The 2000 market peak market a "major trend change" for the market from a very long-term cycle perspective, and the downside is going to continue to be painful well into the next decade, Prechter says. "The extreme overvaluation, the manic buying and bubbles in the late 1990s [and] mid-2000s are for the history books - they're very large," he says. "The bear market is going to have balance that out with some sort of significant retrenchment."

www.fundmymutualfund.com/2009/08/...-of-elliot-wave-meets.html

liegen marginal im positiven Bereich.
http://www.ariva.de/...Depot_genommen_t283343?pnr=6229646#jump6229646

Die ursprüngliche Planung sah eine Austockung der Shortpositonen vor. Zur Zeit herrscht bei mir eine gewisse Verunsicherung ob der Fahrplan beibehalten werden soll. Die Realisierung der wirtschaftlichen Tatsachen scheint sich in die Länge zu ziehen. Noch sehen wir einen Effekt des Boden finden. Daten werden in den monatsvergleichen noch eine Weile gut bleiben. Die Jahresvergleiche sind noch schlecht werden sich aber auch verbessern, sobald die Vorjahreswerte in der Abschwungphase angekommen sind.

Somit werde ich zunächst keine Positionsveränderungen vornehmen. Diese gilts solange es keine Extrembewegungen an den Börsen gibt.

Permanent

überraschend weit auseinander. Woran liegts? Nur an der Zockerei mit Ölfutures?

long und im gas sind sie short,  ich bin  mal vorsichtig long im gas gegangen...sollte die rezession over sein...ist erdgas das erste was anspringt.... da spekuliere ich als longi mal auf shortsquee , unlängst vor paar tagen im zucker  zu sehen, alle shorts in ko und kurzfristigen bereich wurden platt gemacht.....
GS12Q9

der Herr Professor kümmert sich tatsächlich um die Volkserziehung:

aus Wikipedia: "Neben seinen Forschungstätigkeiten besteht eines der Anliegen von Martin Weber darin, die Financial Literacy von Privatanlegern zu steigern. Zu diesem Thema hat er deshalb ein Buch mit dem Titel „Genial einfach investieren“ herausgebracht, das privaten Anlegern die wichtigsten Ergebnisse der wissenschaftlichen Forschung einfach und strukturiert näher bringt"
de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_Weber_(Wirtschaftswissenschaftler)

Solange dabei aber der Tenor "Leutz, kauft Fonggs, die steigen immer" herauskommt, ist dem Anlegervolk nicht wirklich gedient. Aber ich sag' Euch: mit so einem erbärmlichen universitären W3-Gehalt kommt man in D nicht weit. Da muß man dem Herrn Professor schon ein paar Nebenverdienste zugestehen. Z.B. Vorträge zur Investment-Strategie für Kleinanleger ... wer sponsort solche Veranstaltungen üblicherweise ??

Und ansonsten: Füße stillhalten, und "besser den Sportteil lesen als den Wirtschaftsteil"
Is gut jetzt. Hab heute meinen gehässigen Tag, seit 10 Uhr geht die Laune bergab, ach ich seh' gerade, sie steigt wieder  ;o)

The world economy still risks a double-dip recession if oil prices rise toward $100 per barrel and if huge U.S. government debts frighten investors, Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics and chairman of RGE Monitor, told CNBC.

 

"There is a risk, a low probability for a double dip," Roubini said on "Squawk Box."

Although the risk of a depression has been virtually eliminated by the massive monetary stimulus, "we are in the middle of the worst recession in 60 years" and the rallying stock market may have gotten ahead of itself, he added.

"Asset prices should go higher, the question is too much, too soon, too high? In my view there is the risk of a correction," Roubini said.

"I can still see downside risks for financial institutions," he said.

 

Because of the United States' large budget deficit—monetized by the Federal Reserve—investors may at some point next year begin to worry and pull out of government bonds, pushing yields higher, according to Roubini.

Another risk is that if the oil price goes toward $100 a barrel, the shock would be similar to the one felt last year when it went above $145, which was the tipping point for the world economy, he said.

"It could lead to a double dip. I'm not saying it's going to happen but it's a risk," Roubini added.

However, any correction in stocks would not be as severe as pushing the S&P 500 towards 666 unless there is a clear risk of a double-dip, he said.

#0000ff">Die US Haushalte zeigen sich weiterhin extrem Zinssensitiv. Dies zeigt der FED klar welchen Spielraum sie hat.

U.S. mortgage applications fell last week, reflecting a drop in demand for home refinancing loans as interest rates soared to their highest levels since June, data from an industry group showed on Wednesday.

Applications for loans to buy homes, an early indicator of sales, rose slightly.

 

Tepid interest in purchase loans does not bode well for the hard-hit U.S. housing market, which has been showing signs of stabilization.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage applications, which includes both purchase and refinance loans, for the week ended Aug. 7 decreased 3.5 percent to 499.0.

Celia Chen, senior director of housing economics at Moody's Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania, said higher interest rates on mortgages tend to depress home buying, but that demand is not as sensitive to changes in rates as it is in refinancing activity.

"Even though mortgage rates are rising, they still remain quite affordable," she said. "The bigger obstacle to home buying is job losses and tight qualifying conditions for borrowing," she said.

With the U.S. unemployment rate at 9.4 percent, many potential home buyers who have lost or who fear they may lose their jobs remain sidelined even though home affordability has improved significantly.

Borrowing costs on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, excluding fees, averaged 5.38 percent, up 0.21 percentage point from the previous week. It was the highest rate since the week ended June 19 and significantly above the all-time low of 4.61 percent set in the week ended March 27.

 

The survey has been conducted weekly since 1990. Interest rates a year ago were at 6.57 percent.

Mortgage rates were above 5 percent for an 11th straight week. Some experts say rates at 5 percent and below are needed to make a significant impact on home loan demand.

The MBA's seasonally adjusted purchase index rose 1.1 percent to 267.2, the third, albeit small, gain in the last four weeks.

The four-week moving average of mortgage applications, which smoothes the volatile weekly figures, was down 0.7 percent.

Looming Foreclosures to Pressure Home Prices

Chen said the biggest obstacle for the U.S. housing market is foreclosures.

Moody's Economy.com is expecting 3.85 million defaults this year compared to 2.7 million last year, she said.

First mortgage defaults are the first step in the foreclosure process; not all defaults turn into foreclosures.

 

Although the housing market has been showing signs of stabilization, with sales rising and home price declines moderating in many regions, Chen said prices likely will fall again.

"There are a large number of foreclosures in the pipeline and once they hit the housing market, they will pull house prices down again," she said. "I expect house prices to continue falling until mid-2010."

Weekly Refinancing Activity Reverses

The Mortgage Bankers seasonally adjusted index of refinancing applications decreased 7.2 percent to 1,853.8, following an increase of the same amount the previous week.

The refinance share of applications decreased to 52.3 percent from 54.2 percent the previous week, significantly lower than the peak of 85.3 percent in the week ended Jan. 9.

The adjustable-rate mortgage share of activity increased to 5.8 percent in the latest week, up from 5.4 percent the previous week.

Fixed 15-year mortgage rates averaged 4.71 percent, up from 4.60 percent the previous week. Rates on one-year adjustable-rate mortgages increased to 6.71 percent from 6.67 percent.

ein Professor von unseren Steuergeldern finanziert ausbrüten und dann sogar noch absondern darf...

Uuups, Gott-sei-Dank von meinen Steuergeldern ja nicht mehr ;-). Solche beamteten Idioten gibt's in der Schweiz anscheinend einfach nicht (was übrigens die These von Olaf Henkel indirekt bestätigt ;-)

"It would be wrong to imagine that we have hit a turning point in the market," he said. "There is still an enormous oversupply of housing, which means that the direction of house prices will almost certainly continue to be downward."

Mr. Baker says the inventory of unsold houses - now at the equivalent of eight months' worth of supply - is misleading because the number of vacant rental units is going up. That suggests many owners have given up trying to sell their homes and have put them up for rent instead, he said.

If accurate, it's sobering news. The collapse of house prices in the United States helped trigger the global recession, and until the market recovers, U.S. consumers are unlikely to be a major force in the global economy.
Uncertainty is palpable. Buyers are staying on the sidelines because they don't know if they'll have jobs in a few months and, by then, prices could be even lower. Various government efforts to stoke the market - including foreclosure moratoriums and mortgage modification programs - have not been wildly successful.

Until the demand recovers, the housing slump is unlikely to end.

So what will it take for a solid recovery in real estate to take hold? Economist Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research in New York said it all starts with unemployment, now at 9.5 per cent nationally, and widely expected to top 10 per cent by the end of the year.

He said home values closely follow the cost of house rentals, which in turn tracks the jobless rate, all of which points to a gradual recovery in housing. "Houses don't trade like stocks, which tend to make V-bottoms," Mr. Yardeni said. "Home prices  tend to make L-bottoms."

A quick rebound in housing would require a return to the mortgage market of 2006, when lenders ignored swelling household debt levels and dodgy credit histories, said Timothy Duy, an assistant professor and director of the Oregon Economic Forum at the University of Oregon.

And that's unlikely, Prof. Duy said. "I can't see [a housing rebound] unless conditions revert back to the 'Let's give everyone one with a pulse a loan' era."

The impact of still-rising unemployment is also hitting foreclosures. The first wave of Americans losing homes occurred mainly in overheated real estate markets, such as California and Florida, where exotic variable-rate mortgages were sold to buyers with poor credit. The latest wave of foreclosures and forced sales is happening because homeowners are losing their jobs, leaving them unable to pay their mortgages.

Also holding back the recovery is the sheer magnitude of the housing implosion, which is shaping up as the worst on record. Moody's Economy.com is now projecting that the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index - which has tracked values dating back to 1890 - will fall 40 per cent from its peak in 2006. It has declined roughly 30 per cent so far. Before this slump, the largest correction spanned the 1916-to-1932 period, when prices tumbled 37 per cent.

It will likely take a full decade for prices to regain the lofty levels of 2006, said Moody's Economy.com economist Celia Chen. She points out that Japan's property market lost half its value in the aftermath of the bursting of that bubble in the late 1980s and has shown few signs of recovery.

Ms. Chen said no U.S. region or state is escaping the slump. And the states where the boom-and-bust cycle is most pronounced will take the longest to recover. It could be 2011 before the housing markets bottom out in hard-hit states such as Florida, Arizona, California, Nevada and New York, she said.

Meanwhile, house prices are still falling - though the pace of the decline appears to be slowing, said David Blitzer, head of the index committee at Standard & Poor's, which compiles the Case-Shiller index. "There is a clear inflection point," he said.

But an inflection point isn't a turnaround. "Remember that on a year-over-year basis, home prices are still down 17 per cent on average across all metro areas," Mr. Blitzer said.

"So we likely do have a way to go before we see sustained home price appreciation."

******

Even as Americans suffer rising unemployment, foreclosure rates in the three states hit hardest by the housing bust - California, Arizona and Florida - stabilized in June, offering hope that the worst of the real estate crisis is over.

In June, foreclosure rates held steady for Arizona, California and Florida at 4.1 per cent, 3.5 per cent and 3.4 per cent, respectively, according to RealtyTrac Inc., which maintains a nationwide database of foreclosures.
Still, RealtyTrac said more than 1.5 million households in the U.S. received at least one foreclosure-related notice in the first six months of this year.

"It's obviously good news to stop the losses," said Jim Diffley, a regional economist at consulting firm IHS Global Insight in New York.

He cautioned that even as foreclosures level out in some states, they're doing so "at very high levels."The housing bust struck first in states such as California, Arizona and Florida, which had seen outsized price increases during the real estate boom.

Now, California's real estate market, for one, is improving by most measures. Sales increased 20.1 per cent in June, and prices rose for the third successive month, according to the California Association of Realtors.
"It looks like we're past the peak in foreclosures," said Steve Goddard, president-elect of the association. "Most bank-owned properties are receiving multiple offers."

However, foreclosure rates are rising in other states, such as Nevada, Georgia and Utah, and economists say rising unemployment may push foreclosures higher into next year.

www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/.../article1240418/

Ich bin (aus ganz selbstlosen Gründen :-) ja sehr dafür, dass da drüben alles zusammenklappt ;-), aber hier möchte ich doch in einer Nuance widersprechen. Natürlich gibt es klar eine Zinssensibilität für Hauskäufe, aber den Artikel verstehe ich so, ...

"The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage applications, which includes both purchase and refinance loans, for the week ended Aug. 7 decreased 3.5 percent to 499.0.

Celia Chen, senior director of housing economics at Moody's Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania, said higher interest rates on mortgages tend to depress home buying, but that demand is not as sensitive to changes in rates as it is in refinancing activity.

 

"Even though mortgage rates are rising, they still remain quite affordable," she said. "The bigger obstacle to home buying is job losses and tight qualifying conditions for borrowing," she said."

... dass die Aufnahme von neuen Krediten eben derzeit nicht so sensibel ist. Demgegenüber sind aber neue Refinanzierungkredite natürlich total davon abhängig, ob derjenige damit gegenüber seinen bisherigen Konditionen (die ja oft auch schon günstig waren) einen relativen Gewinn macht.

Man kann sich ja schon auf rein gar nichts mehr verlassen! Wenn jetzt der Überbär Roubini den Dabbeldipp absagt, ...

"There is a risk, a low probability for a double dip," Roubini said on "Squawk Box."

... dann bin ich doch einigermassen sauer: ich hatte mich bisher nämlich 100% darauf verlassen!

Incompetent policymakers are to blame for a financial crisis that will continue until substantial changes are made, author Nassim Taleb, known as the "Black Swan," told CNBC.

 

Taleb, principal at Universa Investments and coiner of the "Black Swan" term to explain drastic, unpredictable events, said in a live interview that choking debt, continued high unemployment and a system that rewards bad behavior will hamstring an economic recovery.

"It is a matter of risk and responsibility, and I think the risks that were there before, these problems are still there," he said. "We still have a very high level of debt, we still have leadership that's literally incompetent ..."

"They did not see the problem, the don't look at the core of problem. There's an elephant in the room and they did not identify it."

 

Pointing his finger directly at Fed Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and President Obama, Taleb said policymakers need to begin converting debt into equity but instead are continuing the programs that created the financial crisis.

"I don't think that structural changes have been addressed," he said. "It doesn't look like they're fully aware of the problem, or they're overlooking it because they don't want to take hard medicine."

With Bernanke's term running out, Taleb said Obama would be making a mistake by reappointing the Fed chairman.

 

"Bernanke belongs to a school of economics that is not in synch with the complex system," he said. "By having Bernanke there you're rewarding failure."

Taleb has earned a reputation as a market bear and sage following the publication of his 2007 book, "The Black Swan," that in part warned that banks were susceptible to failures beyond what models could predict—hence, a "black swan" type of rarity. The collapse of the financial system happened shortly thereafter.

He said he doesn't consider himself a pessimist, but is worried about a system that provides tax breaks to failing businesses and rewards, through the "Cash for Clunkers" program, people who bought gas-guzzling vehicles and don't want them anymore.

"It's not pessimism. I'm warning against a lack of understanding of the disease," Taleb said. "Now sometimes you see patients doing very well and they have cancer. Long-term, I'm not comfortable treating a patient for his headaches when he has lung cancer."

Existing Home Sales Rise in Most States, Up 3.8% in Second Quarter; Median Home price rises from 1Q to 2Q

gallery.handelsblatt.com/...ahlplakate/huGO_2_BG_h1301095.jpg" style="max-width:560px" />

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gallery.handelsblatt.com/...ahlplakate/huGO_2_BG_h1301094.jpg" style="max-width:560px" />

A real estate group says U.S. home prices posted a gain in the second quarter, another sign that the ailing housing market is finally coming to life.

 

The National Association of Realtors says the median sales price in the quarter was $174,100, up 4 percent from the first quarter, but still almost 16 percent below a year ago. Prices, however, were still down from a year ago in 129 out of 155 metropolitan areas the group tracks.

Total sales rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.76 million, from 4.58 million in the first quarter, but were still about 3 percent below a year ago.

Thirty-nine states reflected sales increases from the first states, and nine states were higher than one year ago.

"With low interest rates, lower home prices and a first-time buyer tax credit, we've been seeing healthy increases in home sales, which are a hopeful sign for the economy," said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist.

129 out of 155 metropolitan areas reporter lower existing-sale home prices compared to one year ago, while 26 areas had price gains.

 

Foreclosures and short sales made up 36 percent of the sales, weighing down home prices. The national median price was $174,100 — 15.6 percent lower on the year.

The largest sales gain between the first and second quarters was in Idaho, up 67.5 percent; followed by Hawaii which rose 24.2 percent; New York, up 22.3 percent, Wisconsin; with a 21.7 percent gain; and Nebraska with a 20.3 percent increase. Twelve other states experienced double-digit sales increases from the first quarter.

Year over year, California, Minnesota and Michigan are showing double-digit gains from the second quarter of 2008 but are off from the first quarter of this year.

Sharp price declines have continued to be concentrated in areas with high levels of foreclosures, such as California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada.

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast jumped 15.0 percent in the second quarter, but are 8.4 percent below a year ago. In the midwest, existing-home sales rose 3.2 percent in the second quarter but are 5.3 percent lower on the year.

Sales rose 3.9 percent in the second quarter in the south, 7.2 percent lower on the year. In the west, existing home sales fell 2.3 percent in the second quarter, but are up 11.8 percent above a year ago.

Doch es gibt auch Datenreihen, die keinen Boden finden. So steigt die Anzahl der Zwangsvollstreckungen unaufhaltsam. Und am Dienstag berichtete der Immobiliendatendienst Zillow.com, dass die Anzahl jener Haushalte, deren Hypothekenschulden den Wert der Immobilien übersteigt, auf 25 Prozent der Hausbesitzer gestiegen ist. Zillow rechnet damit, dass dieser Wert bis Mitte 2010 auf 30 Prozent steigen wird. Bei weiter fallenden Hauspreisen kein Wunder. Und da das zunehmende Heer an Arbeitslosen dem Markt wenig dienlich ist, rechnen einige gar erst 2011 mit einer Erholung. Doch damit sich die Amerikaner wieder so reich fühlen können wie vor 2005, werden viele weitere Jahre vergehen müssen. Laut Fed-Statistik waren die Immobilien der Privathaushalte 2006 24.000 Mrd. $ wert. Nominal ging es mit den Preisen seitdem um knapp ein Viertel runter, real dürften es fast 30 Prozent sein. Eine nette Vermögensvernichtung. Und von gewerblichen Immobilien haben wir noch gar nicht geredet. Da fängt der Spaß erst richtig an. Fitch rechnet damit, dass die Ausfallrate der mit ihnen besicherten Anleihen (CMBS) sich von jetzt drei Prozent bis Anfang 2010 verdoppeln wird - das wäre dann ein Ausfall von 2 Mrd. $ pro Monat. Hank Paulson wird sich wohl noch gedulden müssen.

www.ftd.de/boersen_maerkte/aktien/...ben-ein-Fluch/552312.html

SP500 über 1000 und Nasdaq über 2000

S&P 500 1,007.03 +12.68 (1.28%)
Nasdaq 2,000.46 +30.73 (1.56%)

... und ich hab mich mal fangen lassen und auf die HP der Linken geschaut. Da haut sie gleich auf Ströbele's Plakat ein:

"Nehmen wir zum Beispiel das Investmentmodernisierungsgesetz (BT-Drs. 15/1553).  Laut dem Plenarprotokoll der 73. Sitzung des Deutschen Bundestages am 7. November 2003 (S. 6330 ff.) wurde der Antrag “Finanzplatz Deutschland weiter fördern”  von den Fraktionen der SPD und Bündnis 90/Grüne eingebracht.  Es war Frau Hendricks (SPD, damalige parlamentarische Staatssekretärin) die verkündete: “Erstmalig werden Bestimmungen zur Zulassung und Regulierung von Hedgefonds, die im Gesetz als Sondervermögen mit zusätzlichen Risiken bezeichner werden,  geschaffen. Der Finanzplatz Deutschland ist aus Sicht der Bundesregierung reif für diese Produkte, für die ein großes Bedürfnis bei institutionellen und privaten Anliegern besteht. [...] Damit werden wir auch hochqualifizierte Arbeitsplätze in Deutschland gewinnen.”                  Auf der Seite 6336 des genannten Protokolls findet man dann die Aussage der amtierenden Präsidentin Kastner, dass der Gesetzentwurf mit den Stimmen des gesamten Hauses angenommen wurde, selbes passierte auch in der dritten Lesung. Mit anderen Worten Rot-Grün hat Hedgefonds zugelassen und es gibt keine persönliche Erklärung oder eine Erklärung zu Protokoll auch nur eines Grünen oder SPD-Abgeordneten, dass er dies so nicht mitmache und dagegen stimme. Okay,  Hans-Christian Ströbele kann ja zur Einsicht gekommen sein ..."

Da stimmen wir doch ausnahmsweise mal zu!

Der Rest der Dame ist uninteressant, in jeder Hinsicht ...

US-Öllagerbestände stärker als erwartet angestiegen

New York (BoerseGo.de) - Die US-Rohöllagerbestände sind nach Angaben des Energieministeriums der USA in der letzten Woche um 2,5 Millionen Barrel angestiegen. Die Lagerbestände im Bereich der Destillate einschließlich Diesel und Heizöl nahmen um 800.000 Barrel zu. Benzin verzeichnete einen Rückgang von 1,0 Millionen Barrel. (...)

ftd dazu gestern:
__________________________________-

Dorf Cushing macht Ölmarkt nervös

Es ist ein Kaff in Oklahoma: Cushing. Doch für den Ölmarkt ist es der wichtigste Ort der Welt. Denn hier lagert das Öl, das den globalen Preis bestimmt. Und derzeit lagert hier besonders viel Öl. Die Internationale Energieagentur schlägt Alarm.

(... gekürzt für ModZ ...)

Lieferort für WTI ist Cushing in Oklahoma. Die Lagerbestände in dem kleinen Dorf befinden sich derzeit mit 33,32 Millionen Barrel (je 159 Liter) auf einem historischen Hoch. Das führt dazu, dass das amerikanische Rohöl billiger ist als üblich. Momentan notiert WTI gegenüber dem Nordseeöl Brent mit einem Abschlag von 2,80 $. Normalerweise ist WTI rund 2 bis 2,50 $ teurer. Am Mittwoch kostete das Fass 68,84 $.

Über die Lagerkapazität in Cushing gibt es keine verlässlichen Angaben. Die Nymex behauptet, sie liege bei 50 Millionen Barrel. Beratungsgesellschaften gehen stattdessen von 40 Millionen Barrel aus. Immer wieder ist die Rede von neuen Installationen durch Unternehmen wie Plains All American und Teppco, eine Gesamtübersicht fehlt aber.  (...)

www.ftd.de/boersen_maerkte/aktien/...arkt-nerv%F6s/552405.html

...In a sleepy European holiday resort town in a depressed economy and therefore no visitors, there is great excitement when a wealthy Russian guest appears in the local hotel reception, announces that he intends to stay for an extended period and places a €100 note on the counter as surety while he demands to be shown the available rooms.

While he is being shown the room, the hotelier takes the €100 note round to his butcher, who is pressing for payment. The butcher in turn pays his wholesaler who, in turn, pays his farmer supplier.

The farmer takes the note round to his favourite “good time girl” to whom he owes €100 for services rendered. She, in turn, rushes round to the hotel to settle her bill for rooms provided on credit.

In the meantime, the Russian returns to the lobby, announces that no rooms are satisfactory, takes back his €100 note and leaves, never to be seen again.

No new money has been introduced into the local economy, but everyone’s debts have been settled. Is this “quantitative easing”?
ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/08/12/66661/qe-explained/

 

 

Und wieder bleibt die Frage: Cui bono?

Verehrte Leserinnen und Leser,

 

das Minus des Dow Jones am Dienstag in Höhe von 96 Punkten war das höchste Tagesminus innerhalb eines Monats. Der Dax notierte an diesem Tag noch am Morgen 51% über den Tiefs von Anfang März. Und Industriemetalle und Rohöl haben ihre Kurse seit den Tiefs verdoppelt. Ist es nicht wunderbar, wie klar die Börsenkurse uns beweisen, dass die Rezession nicht nur längst vorbei, sondern der Boom bereits in voller Fahrt ist?

Ach, Sommer, Sonne ... hier geht´s weiter

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

www.nytimes.com/2009/08/12/business/12madoff.html?em

....he detailed for the first time how he and unidentified others helped Mr. Madoff perpetuate the crime — using historical stock data from the Internet to create fake trade blotters, sending out fraudulent account statements to clients and arranging wire transfers between Mr. Madoff’s London and New York offices to create the impression that the firm was earning commissions from stock trades.

“I knew it was criminal, and I did it anyway,” Mr. DiPascali told Judge Richard J. Sullivan, of Federal District Court, just before pleading guilty to 10 felony counts, including conspiracy and tax evasion.....

Mr. DiPascali is facing up to 125 years in prison; his former boss was sentenced in June to 150 years.

www.marketwatch.com/story/...aps-index-may-hit-wall-2009-08-12

das wissen alle Rotweinfans.
Die Rally hat Spekulanten in den Markt gelockt: Daten der US-Terminbörsenaufsicht CFTC zufolge haben große Investoren ihre Nettokaufpositionen bei Rohzucker-Futures in diesem Jahr mehr als verdoppelt, was zeigt, dass sie auf steigende Preise setzen. Die Zahl der Kontrakte stieg auf 206.330 - das ist der höchste Stand seit dem im Januar 2008 erreichten Rekord von 240.792.
Kann aber auch daneben gehn, wenn Petrus die Englein noch pinkeln lässt.
www.ftd.de/politik/international/...FCr-Indien/551492.html?p=2

PS: Offenbar fanden auch einige Bloomberg-Leser in USA die ursprüngliche Formulierung etwas schräg, denn wo vorher im verlinkten Artikel “as employers squeezed more out of their remaining workforce to bolster profits” stand, steht jetzt: “The productivity of U.S. workers grew in the second quarter at the fastest pace in almost six years as employers slashed payrolls to bolster profits.”

www.weissgarnix.de/2009/08/11/bloomberg-erfrischend-anders/