Der USA Bären-Thread

SONG LYRICS  das passend eLied zur Krise
Musik dazu unter clusterstock.alleyinsider.com/2009/1/i-want-my-bailout-moneyI want my bailout money
hiphop
Keep the bills coming
Sweet green cash just drippin like honey
I’m a new kind of thug with a Washington buzz ’cause
Dealing debt pays better than dealing drugs
What do you think will happen when they double the money supply?
The falling dollar makes it harder for you to survive
They take those billions and trillions and give it to their own kind
Hope you don’t mind bein robbed blind

How do you think we got runaway credit?
Ain’t nothin goin down unless the crooks in Washington let it
Now they regret it but they still don’t get it
Cause the economy is crashin so bad it needs a paramedic

I want my bailout money
Sweet green cash just dripping with honey
Gotta keep this economy running
I need another hit of my bailout money

Look at the stash, it’s like a mad dash for the cash
They got the taxpayer takin it in the ass
the CEOs they are havin a blast
While the workin poor trying to make the paycheck last

The bailout money is created with new debt
While they rollin in their limos and private jets
All the workers on the street drippin sweat
While collar hustlers are takin everything they can get

They put the nation on a hyperinflation track
No Presidential administration can take it back
And now the taxpayers pickin up the slack
Like they put a high dollar Big Brother monkey on your back

I want my bailout money
Sweet green cash just dripping with honey
Gotta keep this economy running
I need another hit of my bailout money

The prisons are filled with brothers caught on a fifty-dollar jack
But when Whitey takin trillions, the cops they turn their back
The incompetent bankers, they get their jobs back
Cause those crankers smoking money like it was crack

They take your car, your home, everything that you own
And when you’re jobless and broke, you still gotta pay the loan
If you’re thinkin of stealin some food, please don’t
Just go to Washington and you can steal everything you want

How we gonna solve this, dissolve the big scam
We resolve we won’t let ‘em steal from a fellow man
Gotta raise our hands and ask “What is this?”
Then we put the Federal Reserve out of business!

You take a look at a dollar bill, you see that eye above the pyramid lookin back at you
That eye is laughin at you suckers!

I want my bailout money
Keep the con running
Sweet green cash just dripping with honey
Gotta keep this economy running
I need another hit of my bailout money

Aren’t you tired of payin for that? Tired of breakin your back for that?
Bein oppressed and suppressed while you keep payin your tax for that?
We gotta get out of this financial trap
And it’s never gonna stop until you take your country back

The politicians are useless, don’t you know that they used us
And the bankers refused us while the media schooled us
The authorities knew this was happening to us
Cause they make more money every time that they screw us

You didn’t think they’re printing all that funny money just for you, did ya?

Drownin’ in debt but the Fed isn’t done yet
What are we gonna get?
Gonna print funny money
Budget’s in the red, economy nearly dead
Politician’s said that we
Gonna print funny money
Hangin’ by a thread, the people are bein’ bled
But get it through your head that we
Gonna print funny money
The bankers gotta stay ahead, gotta make more bread
That’s when they said, “Print more money!”

Song and Lyrics © 2009 by Michael Adams, All Rights Reserved

Villa prices at Jumeirah Park and Jumeirah Islands, Nakheel’s exclusive residential developments in Dubai, have plunged up to 45 percent in the last four months, Arabian Business has learnt.

Brokers across the UAE said speculators were desperately scrambling to off-load property before prices fell further.

Imran Aslam, agent at Dubai-based property broker AAA said completed three to four bedroom villas on Jumeirah Islands were now on the market for as low as six million dirhams, down from 10.5 million dirhams four months ago“It’s a big difference now. Investors are quickly reducing prices. They are also finding they have got too many [properties], so they want to sell. At the moment there is no stable price in the market.”
www.arabianbusiness.com/...mid-real-estate-slump#comment-38546

....Robert Shiller, Professor of Economics at Yale University, who predicted the end of the internet bubble seven years ago, said: “We could have many years of a very weak economy. Big recessions are followed by years of weakness and typically unemployment keeps rising.

“To say that this will last years is not a dramatic statement. What is happening now is much worse than 1990. We could be facing a decade of real weakness.

“This is no ordinary recession. There are signs that people see this as a different story. People are talking about a depression, something that we haven't seen previously.”....
Some economists, such as Kenneth Rogoff, the former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund and now a Professor of Economics at Harvard University, believe that America will be lucky if unemployment peaks at 9 per cent of the workforce and that there is a high chance that it will reach at least 10 per cent......
business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/.../article5496559.ece

der FED ist, dass sie sich ihren eigenen Rettungsschirm basteln kann, sich also selbst beschützt. So werden die Schrotthypotheken den Banken abgekauft werden, ohne dass die FED selbst das Risiko einer Pleite eingeht. Der nächste Schritt wird sein, sich selbst die Zinsen zu erniedrigen, indem langlaufende Bond aufgekauft werden. Was wollt ihr Bären gegen so viel Potenz eigentlich machen (grins )?

...ich bin in gold, aber das ist ja erstens nix neues und wird zweitens nicht gerne gelesen.

ein wirklich lesenswerter Beitrag im Wallstreet Journal heute
online.wsj.com/article/SB123146363567166677.html

ein Buch das 1957 geschrieben wurde ,aber äusserst aktuell zu sein scheint
......Many of us who know Rand's work have noticed that with each passing week, and with each successive bailout plan and economic-stimulus scheme out of Washington, our current politicians are committing the very acts of economic lunacy that "Atlas Shrugged" parodied in 1957, when this 1,000-page novel was first published and became an instant hit.

Rand, who had come to America from Soviet Russia with striking insights into totalitarianism and the destructiveness of socialism, was already a celebrity. The left, naturally, hated her. But as recently as 1991, a survey by the Library of Congress and the Book of the Month Club found that readers rated "Atlas" as the second-most influential book in their lives, behind only the Bible.

For the uninitiated, the moral of the story is simply this: Politicians invariably respond to crises -- that in most cases they themselves created -- by spawning new government programs, laws and regulations. These, in turn, generate more havoc and poverty, which inspires the politicians to create more programs . . . and the downward spiral repeats itself until the productive sectors of the economy collapse under the collective weight of taxes and other burdens imposed in the name of fairness, equality and do-goodism.

In the book, these relentless wealth redistributionists and their programs are disparaged as "the looters and their laws." Every new act of government futility and stupidity carries with it a benevolent-sounding title. These include the "Anti-Greed Act" to redistribute income (sounds like Charlie Rangel's promises soak-the-rich tax bill) and the "Equalization of Opportunity Act" to prevent people from starting more than one business (to give other people a chance). My personal favorite, the "Anti Dog-Eat-Dog Act," aims to restrict cut-throat competition between firms and thus slow the wave of business bankruptcies. Why didn't Hank Paulson think of that?

...The current economic strategy is right out of "Atlas Shrugged": The more incompetent you are in business, the more handouts the politicians will bestow on you. That's the justification for the $2 trillion of subsidies doled out already to keep afloat distressed insurance companies, banks, Wall Street investment houses, and auto companies -- while standing next in line for their share of the booty are real-estate developers, the steel industry, chemical companies, airlines, ethanol producers, construction firms and even catfish farmers. With each successive bailout to "calm the markets," another trillion of national wealth is subsequently lost. Yet, as "Atlas" grimly foretold, we now treat the incompetent who wreck their companies as victims, while those resourceful business owners who manage to make a profit are portrayed as recipients of illegitimate "windfalls."......

das Buch bekommt man  bei amazon.de  bereits für  6,40 EUR auf englisch  kostenlose Lieferung

da findet man übrigens auch einen kritischen Artikel zum Gazakrieg ,man sollte es nicht glauben,aber wirklich die Israelis werden kritisiert
online.wsj.com/article/SB123154826952369919.html

“By moving quickly to address the market decline, we are using Alcoa’s strategic flexibility and solid liquidity to address the continuing economic uncertainty and emerge even stronger when the economy recovers,” said Kleinfeld.

Discontinued operations for the fourth quarter 2008 had a loss of $262 million, or $0.33 per share, representing the results of operations for the Electrical and Electronic Solutions business as well as charges for previously announced headcount reductions and asset impairments related to the intention to sell the business. In the third quarter 2008, discontinued operations had a loss of $38 million, or $0.04 per share. The Engineered Products and Solutions segment does not reflect the Electrical and Electronic Solutions business in its results for the fourth quarter 2008 and all prior periods.

Revenues for the fourth quarter 2008 were $5.7 billion, down from $7.0 billion in the third quarter 2008 and $6.1 billion in the fourth quarter 2007 after excluding divested businesses.

Revenues for the full year 2008 were $26.9 billion and income from continuing operations was a profit of $229 million, or $0.28 per share, primarily reflecting the impact of restructuring, impairment, and other special charges.

Referring to the accomplishments of 2008, Kleinfeld noted, “The improvements we made in 2008 solidified the strategic fundamentals of the Company, which provided the flexibility to act swiftly when the economy began to fall and the staying power to maintain our competitive lead through this historic economic downturn.”

During 2008, Alcoa had a number of accomplishments that prepared the Company for the challenges of 2009 and the opportunities of the future. The Company secured favorable long-term power commitments for nearly half its smelting capacity. Its downstream business, Engineered Products and Solutions, had record results with a 23 percent annual increase in after-tax operating income (ATOI). It shaped its portfolio to focus on its strengths -- successfully exiting the Packaging and Consumer business and executing a cash-free swap to exit the soft alloy extrusion business and gain ownership of two smelters, making Alcoa the largest aluminum producer in the world. For the seventh consecutive year Alcoa was chosen for the Dow Sustainability Index. And the Company enters 2009 with an increase in its short-term debt capacity of almost 60 percent.

Cash from operations in the fourth quarter 2008 was $608 million and the Company has $762 million of cash on hand. Additionally, Alcoa expanded its 364-day revolving credit facility to $1.9 billion in the quarter. Alcoa’s $5.2 billion of aggregate revolving credit facilities support its commercial paper program and provide significant liquidity in 2009.

Capital expenditures for the quarter were $1.0 billion, with 57% percent dedicated to growth projects. The Company’s debt-to-capital ratio stood at 42.5 percent at the end of the quarter.

Looking to the future, Kleinfeld said, “Once the economy stabilizes, the global megatrends – demographics, urbanization and environmental stewardship – will all drive opportunities for our core products. Aluminum has the ideal combination of strength, light weight and infinite recyclability to help countries rebuild their infrastructures for the 21st century. We are extremely well positioned to seize those opportunities.”

Citi may be broken up, under government influence
Sale of Smith Barney would jettison another business from Travelers deal
By Alistair Barr, MarketWatch
Last update: 4:58 p.m. EST Jan. 12, 2009

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Some private investors have been calling for Citigroup Inc. to break itself up for years. Now, according to analysts, the government may be doing the job.

Citi (C) is in talks to sell a majority stake in its Smith Barney brokerage business to Morgan Stanley (MS) for roughly $2.5 billion, according to a Wall Street Journal report. The deal would be set up as a joint venture and would likely give Morgan Stanley an option to buy the rest of the unit later, reports say.

Citi shares slumped 17% to close at $5.60 as investors worried that such a deal favored Morgan Stanley over Citi. Morgan shares slipped 1.4% to $18.79.

If the transaction were to go through, it would mark another departure from the financial-services-supermarket business model that was consummated when Citi, headed by John Reed, and Travelers Group, run by Sandy Weill, agreed to merge in 1998.

Citi has already sold most of the insurance businesses that came with that groundbreaking deal, along with the money-management business. The only major unit left would be consumer finance, a category in which Citi operated before the merger, Ladenburg Thalmann analyst Dick Bove noted Monday.

Sudden departure

Even before the financial crisis hit in 2007, some investors were calling for Citi to be broken up, arguing the company had become too unwieldy to manage. The calls were rejected by executives at the company.

As recently as early December, Citi Chief Executive Vikram Pandit told analysts and investors that the company had the right business mix. The Smith Barney deal would be a sudden departure from that, suggesting government involvement, UBS analyst Glenn Schorr said Monday.

"That a month later such a transaction is even a possibility suggests to us that this move is at least partially being driven by the ownership presence of the U.S. government," Schorr wrote in a note to clients.

Citi may also sell its Mexican business, Banamex, Schorr and Bove noted.

"Technically, Citi hasn't been nationalized [technisch sind wir auch nicht in einer Rezession... - A.L.], but it feels increasingly like there are a few additional folks pulling the strings," Schorr added. "It sure seems like there's some real pressure on Citi to continue to shrink itself into a more manageable, smaller company."

News of a potential deal with Morgan Stanley broke Friday as former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin resigned as senior counselor and director at Citi.

"Both actions suggest an end to the dream that John Reed and Sandy Weill had when they merged legacy Citicorp with legacy Travelers in an attempt to build a monolithic global financial company," Bove wrote in a note to investors.

When the credit crunch arrived, Citi was left with billions of dollars in exposure to collateralized debt obligations and other troubled mortgage-related assets. As losses mounted, it became one of the first banks to get a government investment from the Treasury's Troubled Asset Relief Program, receiving $25 billion.

But Citi shares continued to slump, forcing the government to invest another $20 billion in the bank and guarantee most of a $306 billion pool of troubled assets if losses exceed $29 billion. The Nov. 24 agreement also gave the government control over executive bonuses and put caps on dividends at Citi.

'A new order'

"Since, by some accounts, one might argue that the United States government is the largest investor in Citigroup with a 7.5% interest, any action of the magnitude being suggested here is likely to have been either approved of or stimulated by the banking regulators," Bove wrote.

Citi may emerge from such a government-inspired re-organization with three main businesses: consumer credit (including things like credit cards and retail banking); banking services for big corporations; and payment systems, the analyst said.
Citi's capital markets businesses are being "dramatically" downsized, while the banking businesses are gaining relative prominence, Bove said.

This may give investors clues to how regulators want the rest of the financial-services industry to change, Bove said.

During the credit boom, a shadow banking sector grew in which financial companies without access to deposits became major lenders. This has been in rapid decline since the subprime mortgage crisis erupted in 2007.

Regulators may now want to re-emphasize the role of traditional banking at the center of the financial system, while separating capital markets activities from banking, Bove explained. They probably want to regulate the non-banking parts of the system too, he said.

"A new order is being put in place in the American banking industry," the analyst said.

Alistair Barr is a reporter for MarketWatch in San Francisco.

CBS Marketwatch

 

Koalition einig über zweite Konjunkturspritze 

13.01.2009, 07:08 Uhr

MACD zeigt eigentlich Verkaufssignal, aber Gier war noch nie ein guter Ratgeber.

dass 2009 noch rezessiv wird, es aber in der zweiten Jahreshälfte nach oben gehen wird. Von dieser Illusion scheint sich die Finanzwelt nun zu entfernen. Entbehrt auch jeder Grundlage. Darun werden wir die nächsten Wochen, denke ich, neue Tiefstände sehen. Dax also zwischen 3.300 und 3.600. Ich dürft mich widerlegen.

Developers Diversified Realty (DDR) ist nach General Growth Properties (GGP) der zweitgrößte US-Errichter von Shopping-Malls. 

Gestern verlor DDR 21 Prozent, GGP 19 Prozent.

Die gemeinsame Überschrift lautet: "Niedergang der US-Gewerbeimmobilien".

www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/01/...olatility-bets-suggest.html

....And despite newly bearish sentiment (a lot of blogs and commetators I read have changed their posture in the last week), you can always somewhere, somehow find a factoid that says the stock market will go up. Bloomberg gives us the latest, namely, declining expected volatility in the equity options market. www.bloomberg.com/apps/...20601087&sid=aOKvseNQLT2g&refer=home
Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Options traders are betting stock swings in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will decrease at the fastest rate since the aftermath of the market crash in 1987, a sign that equities may keep rallying.

The difference between the benchmark index’s historic volatility and a gauge of so-called implied volatility based on expected swings rose to the highest in 21 years, according to data compiled by Credit Suisse Group AG and Bloomberg. The gap widened as investors paid less to insure against price declines, sending the Chicago Board Options Exchange’s Three-Month Volatility Index lower.

Historical volatility must fall 25 percent to bring the measures into accord. The last time the difference was this wide, stocks climbed for two quarters, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Declining volatility is usually bullish for equities because it shows growing investor confidence......
“The volatility regime is going to shift significantly in the first quarter,” said Stu Rosenthal, who helps oversee $4 billion in volatility strategies at Volaris Volatility Management, a unit of Credit Suisse in New York. “The options market is predicting that the equity market will calm down.”.......

Am Devisenmarkt seien Gewinnmitnahmen bei Shortpositionen auf den Euro zu beobachten gewesen, während der US-Dollar verkauft wurde. Der Yen wurde auf der Long-Seite bevorzugt – die auf eine weitere Aufwertung der japanischen Währung eingesetzten Geldmengen stiegen auf einen neuen Rekordwert an. Der US-Dollar ist nach Ansicht der Analysten technisch für weitere Korrekturen prädestiniert.
__________________________________________________

Danke übrigens an Kicky für den WSJ-Artikel zu "Atlas shrugged". Scheint echt ein Fanal zu sein, Pflichtlektüre für jeden Parlamentarier und Sozialpolitiker in D, mit anschließendem Verständnistest vor Antritt des Mandats  ;o)
Hab leider keine Zeit für 1000 Seiten englischen Text. Deshalb hier der Shortcut aus Wikipedia:

de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlas_wirft_die_Welt_ab

Auszug: "Der Roman ist eine Streitschrift für Rands Auffassung, dass unabhängiges Denken und daraus folgend Kreativität, Erfindergeist sowie Tüchtigkeit und Arbeitsbereitschaft der Motor sei, der die Welt am laufen halte. Diese Tugenden seien einerseits unter den Menschen unterschiedlich ausgeprägt (Kreativität, Erfindergeist), andererseits aufgrund persönlicher Vorlieben mehr oder weniger vorhanden (Tüchtigkeit, Arbeitsbereitschaft). Das Thema von Atlas Shrugged ist Rands Vision, was passieren würde, wenn die Men of the mind streiken würden: die Welt würde antriebslos werden und die Zivilisation kollabieren (...)

Die in ihrer bis in die Beschreibung physischer Merkmale hineinreichende klischeehafte Kontrastierung der Figuren liefert eine Polarisierung von good guys (Schaffenden, Leistungswilligen usw.) zu bad guys (Schmarotzenden, Arglistigen usw.), die nicht nur über die Länge des Romanes erhalten bleibt, sondern dessen Inhalt auch maßgeblich bestimmt. So werden überbetriebliche Gewerkschaften, Politiker, auch die auf Staatshilfe setzenden Kapitalisten und Wissenschaftler zu institutionalisiertem Parasitentum (...)

Die Frage »Wer ist John Galt?« durchzieht leitmotivisch den Roman und wird jedes Mal dann gestellt, wenn etwas nicht funktioniert, wenn etwas verkommt, ein Unternehmen Konkurs geht, niemand sich für Probleme zuständig fühlt oder ein Leistungsträger nach dem anderen verschwindet. Die Wirtschaft wird von den Politikern um James Taggart schrittweise einer zentralen Planung unterworfen. Wagemutige, als unsozial bezeichnete Unternehmer verschwinden nach und nach, sie scheinen einem unbekannten Zerstörer zum Opfer zu fallen. Mit sozialen Argumenten werden dagegen angepasste Konzerne über Wasser gehalten"
__________________________________________________
>>> bald hat man die "men of mind" soweit. Und dann wird Seehofer Kanzler. eos.

The US dollar climbed to above 83.00 on the index and refused to obey the orders to roll over and die being issued by the ever-prolific writers of its obituaries once again. Not that anything will stop the dollar's morticians from actively campaigning for its demise. Silver lost 71 cents on the day, to trade at $10.54 by the afternoon hours. Platinum dropped $38 to $951 and palladium fell $8 to $184. To make matters worse (for oil and the noble metals), automakers suddenly pulled several electric and a slew of hybrid rabbits out of their Detroit industry showcase hat, showing that when it comes to their own survival, they have the know-how.
Today's technical damage might take some time to sink in, (see below) but the selling (and not just in gold) is not yet seen as abating among the larger players. Thus we need to allow for the possible breach of $800 in the near-term, unless massive buying emerges right at the current level for some reason. Clearly, hedging for inflation is not on asset managers' models at this juncture.......
www.kitco.com/ind/nadler/jan122009B.html

sich nach links schon vor Jahren, auch im alten BärenThread von Anti nachlesbar. Greenspan kritisierte damals schon Bernanke ( die Kreditklemme der Häuslebauer begann und Greenspan sah die Liquiditätskrise klar voraus ). Bernanke zögerte, sprach zwar von dem Hubschrauber mit den Dollarnoten, tat aber nichts. Nun schwappt das Wasser auf der linken Seite bereits in den Kahn, auch Bernanke bekam nun nasse Füße ( und die gesamte FED ), und alle schreien : alle Mann nach rechts! ( Den Vergleich mit einer Affenschaukel spar ich mir hier lieber!)
Alle warten nun, dass der Kahn sich aus seiner bedrohlichen Schieflage wieder aufrichtet.
Persönlich erwarte ich, dass das auch gelingen wird. Nur: Auf der rechten Seite liegt nun eine solche extreme Masse an Gewicht ( Liquidität in Schulden ), dass der Kahn möglicherweise nun die  Wasserkante auf der rechten Seite erreicht, eine Überhitzung mit Hyperinflation. Mittlerweile bin ich pessimistisch; wenn die Fed schon in den letzten Jahren gepennt hat, würde ich mich nicht wundern, wenn der Kahn dann rechts Wasser aufnimmt.
Die Kunst, eine Wirtschaft zu lenken, besteht darin, zur richtigen Zeit gegensteuern zu können. Die Fed kann das nicht!

Bin mir noch nicht sicher ob ich Gewinne realisieren soll. SL wurde nachgezogen.

Gruß

Permanent

Konjunkturpaket II.: Die Nettostaatsprofiteure feiern sich
von André F. Lichtschlag

Die Zeche zahlen die anderen

Die Wahrheit ist so einleuchtend, dass jedes Kind sie versteht: Alles was Politiker an Wohltaten in die einen Taschen verteilen, müssen sie zuvor aus anderen Taschen gezogen haben. Mehr noch: Da erfahrungsgemäß bei politischer Umverteilung die Hälfte in den bürokratischen Strukturen hängen bleibt, muss etwa doppelt so viel auf der einen Seite genommen werden, um auf der anderen Seite geben zu können.

Die Politik und die ihr nahestehende Verblödungsindustrie der Mainstreammedien verschleiert allzu oft diese Grundwahrheiten. Und so wird heute wieder die Bundesregierung für ihr vergangene Nacht beschlossenes neues 50-Milliarden-Programm abgefeiert, zu dem es, da sind sich alle doch am Ende einig, „keine Alternative gegeben“ habe. Schließlich ist ein weiteres 50-Millarden-Geschenk alias (indirektem) 100-Milliarden-Diebstahl ein feines Geschäft für viele Staatsprofiteure – auf Kosten der anderen allerdings.

Wie sieht das im Einzelnen aus? Sechs Punkte hat der neue Mega-Umverteilungsdeal.

www.ef-magazin.de/2009/01/13/...tostaatsprofiteure-feiern-sich

Navigatorc

Öl fällt, weil Aktien fallen, weil Bonds fallen, weil Hauspreise fallen, weil EUR/USD fällt, weil EUR/JPY fällt, weil...

Es ist das Deflations-Szenario des "Big Unwind".

Die Bankenkrise in USA spitzt sich aktuell wieder zu. Citi droht zerschlagen zu werden, auch die Finanzierer von Gewerbe-Immobilien stürzen ab  (# 36412)  - das nächste Minenfeld.

Die Verheißungen der Gold-Bugs, dass das gelbe Metall in einem solchen desolaten wirtschaftlichen Umfeld als "sicherer Hafen" gesucht würde, erweisen sich -  wieder mal - als Trugschluss. Ein solcher Zusammenhang ist auch historisch nicht belegbar.

Fakt ist: Die spekulativen Exzesse der Pump-und-Schwelg-Ära werden nun sukzessive im "Big Unwind" beseitigt. Dabei fallen - bedingt durch (Zwangs-)Verkäufe - fast alle Asset-Preise synchron. Ob man auf Gold, Rohstoffe, Öl, Bonds oder Aktien short geht, ist fast einerlei - und letztlich Geschmackssache. Long sollte man all diese fallenden Messer meiden.

Wer glaubt, sich mit  "Asset-Klassen-Picking" dem allgemeinen Abwärts-Sog entziehen zu können, hat mMn grundlegende Zusammenhänge nicht verstanden.

Britain's economy went into steep decline at the end of last year when consumers tightened their belts, businesses slashed jobs and the housing market ground to a virtual standstill, a trio of surveys showed on Tuesday.

 

The figures suggest the economy has entered its deepest recession since at least the 1980s and will add urgency to discussions on fresh policy initiatives to ease the pain of the credit squeeze.

A survey by the British Retail Consortium showed retail sales fell last month at their fastest pace for a month of December since records began 14 years ago.

"December's performance has historically set the scene for the year ahead, so the outlook is indeed bleak," said Helen Dickinson, head of retail at KPMG.

Britain's biggest retailer Tesco reported the smallest rise in Christmas sales at UK stores open for at least a year since the early 1990s.

"Against the overall background of, I suspect, rising unemployment and economic slowdown it will be a tough year," Finance Director Andrew Higginson told Reuters.

 

Nonetheless, Tesco expects to create around 10,000 jobs in the UK this year, he said in a telephone interview.

A survey from the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors, meanwhile, showed the pace of decline in British house prices eased slightly in December, but sales hit a record low and the proportion of unsold houses rose to its highest level since 1992.

British housebuilder Taylor Wimpey said it built more than a third fewer homes in 2008 compared with 2007.

The company said it had 1.55 billion pounds ($2.32 billion) of debt at the end of last year and it would continue to try to cut costs.

Prime Minister Gordon Brown unveiled a 500 million pound plan on Monday to stop the recession creating an army of long-term unemployed. Further measures on bank lending are expected later this week.

A poll for the Times newspaper showed the prime minister has lost some of the poll boost that followed his handling of the economic crisis last year.

The Populus survey put Brown's ruling Labor Party down two points on last month at 33 percent, with the Conservatives up four points at 43 percent. An election is due by May 2010.

"Frightening Deterioration"

Britain's economy has been particularly hard hit in recent months as banks around the world have reined in lending to repair overextended balance sheets.

The British Chambers of Commerce urged the government to take "additional forceful corrective measures" as it warned that businesses were facing their toughest conditions in more than two decades.

 

It said its quarterly survey of almost 6,000 firms showed a "frightening deterioration" towards the end of last year as sales, orders, investment, employment expectations, cashflow and confidence deteriorated at the fastest pace since the series began in 1989.

"These are truly awful results with the scale and speed of the economic decline happening at an unprecedented rate," said David Frost, Director General of the British Chambers of Commerce. "Since October, things have really fallen off a cliff."

The BCC was one of the first groups to forecast a recession last year and the depth and breadth of its survey makes it a closely watched barometer for the economy as a whole.

The Bank of England has already slashed interest rates to an historic low of 1.5 percent from 5 percent last October.

Analysts expect rates will fall close to zero in the coming months, shifting attention to what can be done once its conventional monetary ammunition has been used up.

aber doch ganz aufschlussreich.
nach einem kleinen rezessiönchen mit -0,3" oder -4% für 1 bis 2 quartale sieht das nicht aus.

-40 % allein im q4 2008 als initial abwärtsbewegung !

navigatorc

 

   

2009-01-13 16:19:55.0Exports and imports fall again in Dec.Exports, Inports, China economy1158960National2@webnews/enppropertyýChina's exports and imports declined for the second consecutive month in December, reflecting weakening external and domestic demand amid the global financial crisis, the customs said Tuesday.

 

 

 

   

 

 

In this file image taken April 6, 2006, a man looks at rows of containers at the Yangshan deep water port off the coast of Shanghai, China. China's exports fell in December for a second month as a trade slump that has prompt...

 

www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2009-01/13/content_7393393.htm

Bernanke Speaks At London School Of Economics

ich dachte ab Q3 geht's garantiert wieder bergauf:

The timing and strength of the global economic recovery "are highly uncertain," Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Tuesday. Coordinated goverment policy responses will be critical to turning the economy around, he said.

www.marketwatch.com/news/story/...E1C-450A22A9529E}&dist=msr_1

ICSC Chain Store Sales:
                                     Previous Actual
Store Sales - W/W change 1.4 % -2.3 %
Store Sales - Y/Y               -0.8 % -2.2 %

Gute Nacht Einzelhandel