Der USA Bären-Thread

Sollte der Markt dennoch nicht wie gewünscht anziehen, können die Goldmänner jederzeit  ein paar Kupfertrommeln in die Höfe ihrer Lagerhäuser rollen lassen, was Lagerverknappung (Rohstoffmangel! Preisanstiege!) suggeriert.

Wenn man diese eigenhändig erzeugte Knappheit in den Lagerhäusern dann auch noch geschickt in der News-Rubrik einschlägiger Rohstoff-Trader-Infoblätter lanciert - idealerweise gepaart mit einer Kausalzusammenhang stfitenden Fake-News über extrem gestiegene chinesische Nachfrage (lässt sich beides kaum überprüfen) - dann kann man mit dem Trommel-Gerolle die Werbetrommel für Kupferkäufe rühren - und Heerscharen externer Trendfolge-Blödis vor den eigenen Long-Karren spannen.

Kaum hat sich der Markt nach Ankündigung des Sparprogramms etwas beruhigt, nutzt Griechenland den Rückenwind und bietet eine milliardenschwere Anleihe zur Zeichnung an. Die Nachfrage ist offenbar groß – es sollen Gebote über elf Milliarden Euro eingegangen sein. Der Schuldenstaat muss dafür einen hohen Preis zahlen.

http://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/anleihen/...lliarden-ein;2540404

Debt-burdened Greece launched a critical bond issue on Thursday and urged Germany and other EU partners to send a clear signal of confidence in Athens to financial markets that would allow it to borrow more cheaply.

 

A day after announcing draconian new austerity measures, the government went to the market with a 10-year euro-denominated bond, the lead manager said, with price price guidance in the area of mid-swaps plus 310 basis points.

Athens, which needs to borrow 53 billion euros ($72.43 billion) this year, badly needs the funds to repay existing debt and cover its huge budget deficit, but the cost will be high.

The pricing offered a premium of more than 20 basis points over Wednesday's closing spread over benchmark German bonds.

"We are compensating the markets to re-enter," the head of the country's debt agency, Petros Christadoulou, told Reuters.

The government was seeking a maximum of 5 billion euros with this issue, and orders reached 14 billion euros, the head of the country's Debt Agency told Dow Jones, while a banking source told Reuters demand was as high as 16 billion euros.

EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said euro zone nations would take coordinated action to guarantee Greece's stability if necessary, and prevent any spillover of its debt crisis to other members with serious budget problems.

Rehn said in an Italian newspaper interview the 4.8 billion euros in extra savings announced on Wednesday were sufficient for 2010 providing they are applied fully.

"But further on, in 2011 and 2012, further measures will be necessary for Greece... for medium-term consolidation," he told Il Corriere della Sera.

Deputy Greek Foreign Minister Dimitris Droutsas made an appeal for political rather than direct financial backing as Athens tries to bring down its sky-high borrowing costs.

"What we need from our EU partners and from such an important EU partner as Germany, is an explicit, clear signal to the international financial markets that Greece and the Greek government have their full confidence," he told Deutschlandfunk radio.

 

"At no time has the Greek government demanded direct financial support from its EU partners. This is not necessary, Greece doesn't need it. We can, we want to clear up our state budget on our own," he added.

Thursday's bond was a crucial test ahead of a period between April 20 and end May when Greece needs to borrow or refinance 20 billion.

Without clearer European support, its borrowing costs could be cripplingly high due to a lingering lack of confidence in government's effort to get the huge deficit under control.

Prime Minister George Papandreou will meet German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin on Friday, but she said on Wednesday that the question of financial aid will not be on the table.

Avoid Spillover

Rehn said the euro zone had the resources to ensure stability if required. Asked if this implied an EU bailout for Athens, he said: "We are not speaking about this today. Greece has restarted well." Other countries in both southern and northern Europe also had serious problems.

"The aim of all this is precisely to avoid a spill-over effect ... from one country to another," he said.

European government sources have said Germany and France are working on contingency plans under which state-owned financial institutions would directly purchase billions of euros in Greek bonds or offer guarantees to commercial banks that bought them.

Droutsas noted that with current interest rate premiums, Greece would have to pay 750 million euros more in interest on a five billion euro loan than Germany would.

"We're trying to bring these borrowing costs down and for this we need the trust of the international financial markets. We're earning this with these measures which we have announced," he said.

The yield on 10-year German government bonds is just over three percent, whereas on the Greek equivalent it is around 6 percent.

The Greek spread over German bunds widened initially to by 11 points to 301 bps on news of the issue.

Droutsas noted that the government aimed to reduce the budget deficit to 8.7 percent of gross domestic product this year from 12.7 percent in 2009.

"We are very optimistic that with the right implementation of this package of savings measures we can reach this target in 2010. That is our obligation and something that the Greek government is undertaking very seriously," he said in the interview.

The EU — and Germany — praised Greece's third savings package in as many months and said Athens could count on European solidarity.

But Germany, whose backing for any European safety net for Greek borrowing would be vital, has stopped short of any commitment to financial support.

"Klingt konsequent."

Ja, in gewisser Weise wäre es das.

"Ist die Griechenrettung nicht in Wahrheit eine Rettung der deutschen Banken, die sich mit griechischen Staatsanleihen zu weit aus dem Fenster gelehnt haben? Wenn die Griechen zur Drachme zurückkehrten, könnte man deren Euro-Schulden vermutlich nie wieder vollständig eintreiben"

In unserer hochgradig vernetzten Welt, insbesondere EU/Eurozone, kann man Ursache-Wirkungs- und Täter/Opfer-Separierungen nur noch sehr schwer, und auf keinen Fall vollständig hinkriegen. Deshalb ist an so etwas immer etwas "dran", aber es ist halt nur ein Aspekt von vielen.

Zunächst mal: ich finde, dass der "Griechenland-Prozess" von der Politik bisher unter dem Strich ganz gut gehandhabt worden ist. Besser als ich befürchtet hatte, und das gibt mir auch weiter Hoffnung.

Aber die Sache ist wirklich schwierig, wie ein für Griechenland-Fans (wie mich :-) lesenswertes unpolemisches Interview eines qualifizierten Griechen zeigt: Euro-Krise: "Die Griechen müssen leiden"

Überraschungen sind immer möglich (auch positive! :-), aber ich glaube nicht, dass die Rückkehr zur Drachme kommt, würde es aber auch nicht völlig ausschliessen (sagen wir mal 20:80), weil mMn ein von der Eurozone aktiv unterstütztes Zurückkehren zur Drachme eine Menge Vorteile für alle haben könnte. Das könnten unter dem Strich auch die Entscheidungsträger aus Eurozone und Griechenland feststellen, allerdings wohl erst gegen Ende der ewig-langen Pokerpartien, wenn man eingesehen hat, dass über-den-Tisch-ziehen nicht aussichtsreich ist. Das dürfte aber lange dauern, sehr lange...

Insofern ist wohl leider auch der in dem o.a. Interview geäusserte Pessimismus zur Reformfähigkeit der griechischen Regierung sehr begründet, wenn man folgenden aktuellen Nachrichtenausschnitt nimmt:

Eurozone: An aide to Greek prime minister George Papandreou tells the WSJ (ahead of the PM’s meeting with Angela Merkel tomorrow): "Papandreou will say: 'Help us to borrow at normal interest rates. Don't leave us so exposed to speculators." The aide also tells the paper that Greece isn't seeking a handout, but it would like credit guarantees from Germany and other Eurozone peers, so that it can tap capital markets more easily

Das ist ja eine derart bodenlose Unverschämtheit, dass sich mir schon wieder die Nackenhaare aufstellen! Gott-sei-Dank geht es dann zumindest so weiter:

However, a German official tells the paper "We aren't interested in bailing out Greece's interest-rate spreads—only in preventing Greek insolvency." The officials argue that Greek insolvency isn’t a threat just yet as there are no debt repayments due until April 20th. Until then Greece must make more progress in enacting its many promises of budget cuts and must try to tap bond markets, rather than fretting that it can't.

Naja, wie sagt AL doch immer so schön? Wütend nachshorten! ;-)

 

Was Steffen Bogs in seinem neusten "Querschuss" akribisch aufzeigt, ist nichts für schwache Nerven:

wirtschaftquerschuss.blogspot.com/2010/03/...-erstmals-in.html

New claims for jobless benefits fell last week in a sign that layoffs may be easing as the economy slowly recovers.

 

The Labor Department said Thursday that initial claims for unemployment insurance fell by 29,000 to a seasonally adjusted 469,000. That nearly matches Wall Street analysts' estimates of 470,000.

Still, any improvement in the job market is likely to be slow, as companies remain reluctant to hire. Last week's drop only partly reverses a sharp rise in claims in the previous two weeks.

The drop in unemployment coincided with a considerable rise in productivity.

The four-week average of claims, which smooths out volatility, fell by 3,500 to 470,750. Despite the drop, the average has risen by about 20,000 since the beginning of the year.

Initial claims have been volatile in recent weeks as last month's severe snowstorms in the Northeast have distorted the data.

Claims rose sharply two weeks ago partly because several states processed a backlog of claims that had built up from previous weeks when government offices closed due to the bad weather. No states reported backlogs this week, a Labor Department analyst said.

The number of people continuing to claim benefits, meanwhile, fell more than expected to 4.5 million.

But the so-called continuing claims do not include millions of people who have used up the regular 26 weeks of benefits typically provided by states, and are receiving extended benefits for up to 73 additional weeks, paid for by the federal government.

 

Nearly 5.9 million people were receiving extended benefits in the week ended Feb. 13, the latest data available, up from about 5.7 million the previous week. The extended benefit data isn't seasonally adjusted and is volatile from week to week.

In a separate report, the government said productivity in the final three months of last year surged at a faster pace than previously thought as labor costs fell more rapidly.

The Labor Department reported Thursday that productivity jumped at an annual rate of 6.9 percent in the fourth quarter, even better than an initial estimate of a 6.2 percent growth rate. Unit labor costs fell at a rate of 5.9 percent, a bigger drop than the 4.4 percent decline initially estimated.

The combination of rising productivity and falling labor costs bolsters company profits and helps keep inflation at bay. But it also puts American households under stress, leaving them with less income to increase consumer spending, the key ingredient to economic growth.

die big boys sind im  cu short und im öl long, ........

Iran und Syrien verbünden sich mit der Hamas. Somit ist die Bedrohung für Israel immer realer. Israel hat sich Rückendeckung für den Fall eines Präventivschlag gegen iranische Atomeinrichtungen in den USA geholt. Clinton lässt sich von Saudi Arabien die Zusicherung geben Öl an China zu liefern wenn der Iran kurzfristig ausfällt.
Saudi Arabien willigt ein, die Beziehungen zum Iran sind ohnehin sehr schlecht.
Russland und China werden kein Veto gegen verschäfte UN Sanktionen gegen den Iran einlegen. Russland ist zur Zeit sehr schlecht auf den Iran zu sprechen.
Israel sieht sich mehr denn je in seiner Existenz bedroht und ist bereit in den Krieg zu ziehen.

Die Gespräche, welche durch Initiative der Türkei zustande kamen, sind gescheitert.

Wohin soll das noch führen.

Permanent

www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/03/...elinquent-mortgages.html

 

 

The number of buyers who agreed to purchase previously occupied homes fell sharply in January, a sign that demand for housing is sinking this winter, especially after stormy weather hit much of the country.

The National Association of Realtors says its seasonally adjusted index of sales agreements fell 7.6 percent from December to a January reading of 90.4.

It was the lowest reading since last April.

Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters had expected the index would rise to 97.6.

 

The index is considered a barometer for future sales because typically there is a one- to two- month lag between a signed sales contract and a completed deal. A reading of 100 is equal to the average level of sales activity in 2001, when the index started.

Das könnte durchaus der Fall sein, denn sowohl beim Aufbau von Lagerbeständen der LME als auch bei denen der NYMEX zeichnet sich in den letzten beiden Monaten ein deutlicher Momentumschwund ab. Lediglich die Chinesen (Shanghai-Börse) haben im Februar ihre Lager nochmals kräftig von 120.000 t auf 150.000 t aufgestockt.

Was den Iran angeht, da können die Israelis ohne Probleme taktisch agieren, aber sonderlich hilfreich ist das nicht, es würde die Reaktionen gegen Israel weltweit verstärken und den Iran in eine günstigere politische Position bringen.
Ein Einsatz am Boden, wer das beginnt hat nicht alle Murmeln im Beutel, daß ist nicht zu gewinnen und würde die gesamte Region völlig destabilsieren.
Ein Einsatz durch die Amerikaner, politischer Selbstmord, die Amis stehen Öffentlich nicht gerade sonderlich gut da und werden zunehmend gehaßt, nicht "nur" von Muslimen.

Die Amis können mit ihrem umfangreichen Sortiment an Waffen natürlich vieles anstellen, daß fängt an mit Predator Einsätzen und hört auf mit flächendeckenden Bombardements, der Preis dafür ist enorm, denn das dürfte dann tatsächlich zu Terroranschlägen führen und garantiert innerhalb der USA.

Für meine Begriffe ist der Iran für niemanden eine Gefahr. Im Gegenteil, würde man die Verteufelung unterlassen und mit dem Iran Verhandlungen auf wirtschaftlicher Ebene führen, würde die Weltwirtschaft enorm profitieren. Der Iran hat Rohstoffe und benötigt dringend Waren, wir benötigen Rohstoffe und haben Waren. Eine Win Win Situation und wer miteinander Geschäfte tätigt, bringt sich meist nicht gegenseitig um. Es würde die Region stabilisieren, den Menschen dort einen besseren Lebensstandard geben und dürfte auch die Demokratie im Iran stärken, weil Menschen die im Mittelstand leben, dies nicht mehr verlieren wollen, die iranische Regierung gerät dann unter Druck, innerhalb der Weltgemeinschaft eine tragende und verantwortliche Rolle zu spielen.

Israel würde dabei ebenfalls Ruhe an der Front der Hamas bekommen, wenn der Iran hier mäßigend einwirkt, um den lockenden Wohlstand nicht zu verlieren und Israel durch den nachbarschaftlichen Wohlstand weniger Gefahren sieht, damit dann auch stärker verhandlungen mit den Palästinenser führen kann.

Mir ist immer unbegreiflich, weshalb man nicht die Chancen nutzt und stattdessen alles tut, um auf der Hand liegende Vorteile einfach auszuschlagen.

aus dem Solarenenergie-Sektor:

die von Hedge Funds geplante spekulative Attacke gegen den Euro (siehe auch #58390). 

Did Hedge Funds Conspire to Devalue the Euro?  

The Department of Justice is investigating whether several prominent hedge funds conspired to drive down the value of the euro as the Greek debt crisis left the currency vulnerable to sophisticated trading methods employing credit default swaps and other derivatives.

 

Likewise, the European Commission yesterday (Wednesday) said it would examine trades in sovereign credit-default swaps (CDS) related to the Greek crisis, which has driven the euro lower and prompted officials to warn hedge funds against trying to profit from the region's debt crisis.

The Justice Department's antitrust division "has opened an investigation into agreements among various hedge funds that trade euro contracts," including contracts to trade euros in the "cash or the derivatives market," a person familiar with the letter told The Wall Street Journal.

In a letter sent last week the Justice Department asked hedge funds to hold onto trading records and e-mails relating to the euro, Bloomberg News reported, citing people who have seen the letter.

The letter requested that the funds "preserve all documents" and electronic communications relating to agreements to trade the euro or communications about agreements to trade currencies, the anonymous source told The Journal.

Recent trading in securities related to the Greek financial crisis has drawn the attention of government officials to hedge funds, banks and other speculators. Some critics claim traders have deepened financial difficulties in Europe by first helping nations hide their debt with CDS and other derivatives, and then profited by driving down the value of the underlying securities.

"It is clear in the current environment, and likely for a long time going forward, any entity that profits from another's misfortune, in this case hedge funds versus Greece and the euro zone, risks being the target of public backlash, or worse, government retaliation," Kirby Daley, a senior strategist in Hong Kong with Newedge Group's prime brokerage business told Bloomberg.

Devaluation on the Menu

On Feb. 8, Executives from some of the hedge funds including SAC Capital Advisors LP, Greenlight Capital Re Ltd. (Nasdaq: GLRE), Soros Fund Management LLC and Paulson & Co., attended an "idea dinner" hosted by New York-based research and brokerage firm Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co., according to an anonymous source cited by Bloomberg.

One of 23 themes discussed at the dinner was a bet that the euro would fall against the dollar.

In fact, during the dinner at the Townhouse, a Manhattan restaurant, a SAC portfolio manager encouraged other traders to join his firm in going "short," or betting against, the euro, The Journal reported citing people who attended the dinner.

A research note issued shortly after the dinner to hundreds of hedge-fund clients by Monness Crespi summed up the SAC manager's argument without mentioning his name, The Journal reported. The trader argued that the euro is likely to fall to "parity," to the dollar on an exchange basis.

The presenter was very bearish on the euro, believing over time it "could trade between 90 cents and $1.20." With the Eurozone countries facing high deficits and historic spending cuts, the note continued, "the presenter's way to play this is to short the euro."

The size of the bets against the euro is unclear.

Justice Department investigators are likely to examine whether information sharing like what occurred at the Feb. 8 dinner constitutes collusion. Because of the difficulty of proving that firms intentionally sought to act together, collusion charges against Wall Street firms have been rare.

Spokespeople for the hedge funds declined requests from CNBC to comment or didn't return calls. Neil Crespi, President of Monness Crespi couldn't be reached for comment.

 

Insurance Against Greek Default

Credit default swaps are credit derivative contracts that let banks and hedge funds place bets on whether or not a company, or in this case a country, will default. The CDS buyer makes periodic payments to the seller, and in return receives a payoff if the underlying financial instrument defaults.

 

Weiter hier:

moneymorning.com/2010/03/04/hedge-funds/

- ebenso brisant wie der vorherige:

wirtschaftquerschuss.blogspot.com/2010/03/...ht-im-januar.html

Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve will eventually have to bail out some states such as Illinois and California, he said.

“If you compare the Depression years, we didn’t have credit cards and we didn’t have unfunded liabilities from Social Security, Medicare, and Medicade,” he explained. “In other words, in 10 years time, between 30 to 50 percent of tax revenues will be spent on interest payments on the government debt...and that will lead to a weak dollar.”

http://www.ariva.de/..._Forever_Faber_t357283?pnr=7559835#jump7559835

                                        

... (automatisch gekürzt) ...

http://www.ftd.de/finanzen/maerkte/...nt/50084007.html?author=5000516

Seit Mitte 2007 zeigt sich bei den Commercial Papers ein gewaltiger Rückgang in mehreren Etappen. Was sind Commercial Papers?

www.wirtschaftslexikon24.net/d/...r-cp/commercial-paper-cp.htm

Der Chart reflektiert quasi eine "kontrollierte Rückabwicklung" zumindest der zwischen 2004 und 2007 extrem aufgebauschten Schuldtitel - im Klartext: Kontraktion, die wohl noch nicht zuende sein dürfte.

Auch wenn einige Bären ihre Humor verloren haben versuche ich es mit ein wenig Heiterkeit:

http://www.ariva.de/forum/lustig-404434

March 4 (Bloomberg) -- China and Russia said negotiations with Iran remain the best way to resolve the dispute over the purpose of its nuclear program, after a French envoy said the time has come to adopt tougher United Nations  sanctions.

“There is still room for further diplomatic maneuvers,” Chinese Deputy Ambassador Liu Zhenmin told a Security Council meeting on Iran’s compliance with the previous three sets of sanctions. “The door to contact and dialogue has not closed.”

Russian Ambassador Vitaly Churkin, whose government has said it is open to supporting new penalties, said there is “still a horizon” for negotiations aimed at an agreement to defuse tensions by enriching uranium for a research reactor outside Iran. ...

www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aOLRz4Tjnhyc

Bonitätsnote

Moody's stuft Deutsche Bank herab

Schlechte Nachrichten für Josef Ackermann: Die Ratingagentur Moody's ist besorgt,

... (automatisch gekürzt) ...

http://www.ftd.de/unternehmen/finanzdienstleister/...ab/50084189.html

www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm#employed

www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/03/03/...-prize-winn_n_484943.html
One of the world's leading economists said Wednesday that the very structure of the Federal Reserve system is so fraught with conflicts that it's "corrupt."

Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz, a former chief economist at the World Bank, said that if a country had applied for World Bank aid during his tenure, with a financial regulatory system similar to the Federal Reserve's -- in which regional Feds are partly governed by the very banks they're supposed to police -- it would have raised alarms.

"If we had seen a governance structure that corresponds to our Federal Reserve system, we would have been yelling and screaming and saying that country does not deserve any assistance, this is a corrupt governing structure," Stiglitz said during a conference on financial reform in New York. "It's time for us to reflect on our own structure today, and to say there are parts that can be improved.".....

Stiglitz made the remarks at a conference held by the Roosevelt Institute. He and other speakers, including Harvard Law Professor and federal bailout watchdog Elizabeth Warren and legendary investor George Soros, had bold ideas about reforming the nation's financial system.

Der DOW hat darauf nur mit einem kurzen Absacker reagiert. Bei positiven Zahlen hätte es 4 % Plus gegeben.

Auffallend ist, dass der Abverkauf ab Mitte Jan. gegen den ""Widerstand relativ guter Unternehmensergebnisse" erfolgte, während beim Anstieg seit 5. Feb die zahlreichen negativen Makrodaten fast komplett ignoriert wurden.

www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2010/03/phs_down

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16:00 (MEZ)

Veröffentlichung der Zahlen zum US-amerikanischen Index zu den anstehenden Hausverkäufen ("Pending Home Sales Index") für Januar 2010

Der US-amerikanische Index zu den anstehenden Hausverkäufen ist im Januar um 7,6 % gefallen. Erwartet wurde hingegen eine Veröffentlichung von -1,0 bis +1,7 %.

derivatecheck.de