Der USA Bären-Thread

Condos = Eigentumswohnungen

Die Preise fielen, wie von mir befürchtet, weiter. Die meisten Käufe waren Billig-Appartments und Häuser aus Zwangsversteigerungen. Hinzu kamen riesige  "saisonale Bereinigungen". Die verlängerte Staatszulage für Käufer half ebenfalls.

 

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Existing Home Sales Surge on Cheap Condos
By Barry Ritholtz - November 23rd, 2009, 10:24AM

Existing-home sales gained in October on a monthly basis as prices fell and cheaper homes predominated sales. Elevated inventory levels also declined.

Existing-home sales gained 10.1%, reflecting in large part an outsized seasonal adjustment. Sales were 23.5% above the 4.94 million-unit level in October 2008, when the collapse of Fannie, Lehman, AIG, Bank of America and Citigroup had paralyzed the nation.

Median existing-home price was $173,100 in October, down 7.1% from October 2008.

The biggest gains were found in the cheapest homes – especially condominiums and co-ops. Their sales surged 13.2% (seasonally adjusted) and were up an astonishing 40.8% above a year ago. Median prices for condos fell 10.4% below October 2008.

As expected, the prior month’s initial report was revised downward to annual pace of 5.54 million in September (originally reported as 5.57mm annualized). These revisions effectively eliminated the upside surprise of 220k sales last month.

It is noteworthy that seasonally adjusted sales activity is at the highest level since February 2007 (6.55 million).

Ultra low interest rates are helping sales somewhat. A 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to 4.95% Last week, the 30-year rate dropped to 4.83%.

In addition to the low rates and the now extended first time homebuyers’ tax credit, a big spike in foreclosures is attracting bargain hunters. In parts of the country, some foreclosed units are selling for less than 50% of the peak 2005-06 price – especially on the low-end of the price scale. Foreclosure units have been selling briskly in California, Florida, Arizona, and Las Vegas.

Total housing inventory for sale fell 3.7% to 3.57 million existing homes, a 7.0-month supply at the current sales pace. This does not include a variety of so-called shadow inventory: REOs, rental units, vacation properties, and bank-owned strategic non-foreclosures.


Source:

Existing-Home Sales Record Another Big Gain, Inventories Continue to Shrink
National Association of Realtors, November 23, 2009

www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2009/11/record_big

www.ritholtz.com/blog/

 

Nicht zuletzt deshalb wollen die Käuferschlangen vor den Banken ja immer Bares.

Vielleicht soll die "verkappte Nachricht" der chinesischen Zentralbank ja lauten: WIr wachsen jetzt dermaßen stark, dass wir bremsen müssen. Es würde sonst einfach zu stark, dieses Wachstum.

So wie 1999/2000 in USA....

market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/...urkeys-All-Around.html

Fantastic new iPhone App called Bailout Ben:

Bailout Ben (aka Helicopter Benny), the intrepid pilot of Bail Force One, is on a mission to engineer the biggest bailout in the history of the universe! Benny’s helicopter is flying lower and lower, and if he doesn’t bail out every single company he will crash & burn!

The names of the companies to be bailed out are shown on the bottom of the screen, in stock ticker format. For example, C for Citigroup, GM for General Motors.

The debt of each company is denoted by the blue and green bars. The taller the bar, the greater the toxic debt. Tap the screen to drop a bundle of dollars and help bail out a company. Only one wad of cash can be dropped at a time, so manage your bailouts carefully.

Land the helicopter and see Benny dance to the funky beat*. Or be trampled by a herd of piggy banks, angry at the lack of money flowing their way. Sometimes they get really mad and then it’s “Oh my gosh they killed Benny!”

Outstanding!

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/

 

 

The asset-price rally is running out of momentum and will soon crack, which could lead to a 30 percent correction in oil and a 20 percent correction in stocks, Sean Corrigan, chief investment strategist at Diapason Commodities Management, told CNBC.com.

 

"Difficult to call the top in here, but we think the first part of next year will be a bit more difficult. There is a potential, once this cracks, for maybe a 25-30 percent correction (in oil prices)," Corrigan said. 

When the market finally does crack, the declines could be led by either oil, stocks or a rebound in the dollar, Corrigan said. But when it does, expect a 30 percent drop in oil and a 20 percent fall in stocks, he added.

The stimulus measures brought in by governments to boost the economy and asset prices have been fueling the recent rally through adding liquidity, Corrigan said.

Corrigan believes there is too much good news already priced in by investors and when the flow of upbeat economic data starts to level off, it will bring the recent rally to a halt.

 

Many market watchers fear that a double-dip in the economy could push the prices of riskier assets lower. But Corrigan thinks that the stock market could correct even if the economic recovery remains intact.

"That's not Armageddon double-doom, but I think the markets could correct even if the economy doesn't," he said.

Investors are getting increasingly concerned about the market's momentum, according to Corrigan. But they don't want to be first to reduce their risk exposure, he said.

"They would rather look stupid in company than prudent in isolation," Corrigan said.

Investors that have benefited from this year's rally will be ready to reduce risk ahead of the New Year in order to maximize their changes of getting a good bonus, Louis Gargour, managing Partner and chief investment officer at LNG Capital, told CNBC.

Aktuell ist der Zinssatz für einjährige US-Schatzwechsel auf den niedrigsten Stand der Nachkriegsgeschichte gefallen: 0,25 %. Ich habe mal die Entwicklung des Goldpreises mit der Zinsentwicklung korreliert. Es ist schon ein rätselhaftes (?) Phänomen: In den 1970ern stieg der Goldpreis bei steigenden Zinssätzen, und seit 2008 steigt er bei sinkenden Zinssätzen.

geht hin. Dieses Phänomen würden wir ohne die Maßnahmen (QE) der FED wohl bereits erleben.

Permanent

The government's efforts to auction off more debt met with modest response Monday as investors bought $44 billion in two-year notes.

 

The auction fetched a high yield of .802 percent with bidders putting up $3.16 for every $1 auctioned.

Immediately after the auction Treasurys prices were little changed from lower levels.

Higher stocks sapped the safe-haven appeal of government debt.

Stocks were boosted in part by a weaker dollar and suggestions from a Federal Reserve official that fiscal stimulus should be maintained beyond what was originally planned.

 

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said Sunday night that the central bank should keep alive its mortgage-related asset purchase program beyond a planned end date.

"Stocks are up globally, fueled by positive data and policy comments suggesting that stimulus will remain in place," said T.J. Marta, chief market strategist with Marta on the Markets in Scotch Plains, N.J. He added that "in keeping with the generally positive attitude, government bond yields have risen."

Investors were also looking to cheapen Treasurys ahead of the sale of $118 billion of notes this week.

 

Ahead of the sale, benchmark 10-year Treasury notes were trading 5/32 lower in price to yield 3.39 percent, up from 3.37 percent late Friday, while 30-year bonds were 12/32 lower to yield 4.32 percent, from 4.30 percent.

The bearish tone in Treasurys was fueled by data showing existing U.S. home sales rose in October to the highest in more than 2-1/2 years. Sales surged a record 10.1 percent to an annual rate of 6.10 million units from a 5.54 million unit pace in September. Analysts polled by Reuters had been looking for sales to rise to 5.70 million in October.

"The data is consistent with the theme that the economy is recovering and that the housing market has hit bottom," said Kim Rupert, managing director of global fixed income analysis at Action Economics LLC in San Francisco.

Two-year Treasury notes were trading unchanged in price to yield 0.74 percent.

The price action Monday steepened the U.S. Treasury curve, with the spread between yields on two-year notes and 10-year notes widening to 265 basis points from 263 basis points late Friday.

Was sonst.:)

Es ist noch etwas Platz nach oben, aber dort wartet dann schon die nächste Shortchance.

Just aufgepickt aus Frank Meyers Blog

Vergleichszahlen

In den ersten neun Monaten erhöhte sich der weltweite Ausstoß der Minen um sieben Prozent auf 1.766 Tonnen. Zum aktuellen Preis von 1.171 USD kostet ein Kilogramm 37.553 USD. Die Gesamtsumme aus dem Output beträgt damit 66,5 Milliarden USD. Allein in dieser Woche begibt das US-Schatzamt neue Anleihen in Höhe von 145 Milliarden USD, dem mehr als Doppelten der Summe des neu geförderten Goldes. Wo es auf der Welt „bubbelt“, scheint damit beantwortet zu sein. Allein die deutsche Netto-Neuverschuldung entspricht in diesem Jahr der gesamten geförderten Goldmenge in den ersten neun Monaten. Yes we can!

Auf dem Goldmarkt tauchen neben den Kleinkäufern zunehmend Anlagevehikel auf, die mit Gold hinterlegt sind. Man möchte es zumindest hoffen. Zudem sind auch die Zentralbanken als Nettokäufer unterwegs, nebst einer europäischen Zentralbank, die laut letztem Ausweis der EZB für eine Million Euro Goldmünzen gekauft hat. Peanuts. Vielleicht als Weihnachtsgeschenk für verdiente Mitarbeiter?

Kein Wunder ist es, dass bei diesen Preise die angebotene Menge Altgold ansteigt. In den ersten neun Monaten kamen 37 Prozent mehr altes Gold auf den Markt – insgesamt 1.200 Tonnen, schreibt das World Gold Council im letzten Bericht. Auch bei den Münzhändlern werden gerade viele Schätzchen mit teils dickem Gewinn in Papiergeld umgetauscht. Sollte man bei diesen Rekordpreisen Gold kaufen? Ich weigere mich. Vielleicht gibt es bald günstigere Gelegenheiten. An der US-Terminbörse Comex liegt die Shortposition bei jetzt rekordverdächtigen 281.546 Kontrakten bzw. 28,15 Millionen Unzen. Das entspricht rund 900 Tonnen Gold bzw. einem Drittel der weltweiten Jahresförderung. Es wäre nicht verwunderlich, wenn der Preis in Kürze schlagartig einbrechen sollte. Von welchem Niveau aus, kann keiner vorhersagen.

Obwohl dieses mal wirklich der Verfallstag mit reingespielt hat. Aber das ist unerheblich.
Der neue Sense ist immer noch ziemlich bärenlastig. Die nächste Mini-Rallyestufe bis zur oberen trendlinie kann also theor. weiterlaufen.

The Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll is a survey of the web's most prominent investment bloggers, asking "What is your outlook on the S&P 500 for the next 30 days?" Conducted on a weekly basis, the poll is sent to participants each Thursday, and the results are released on Ticker Sense each Monday. The goal of this poll is to gain a consensus view on the market from the top investment bloggers -- a community that continues to grow as a valued source of investment insight. © Copyright 2009 Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll

tickersense.typepad.com/ticker_sense/2009/...ntiment-poll.html

gefallen, abwarten, was  morgen der Goldpreis macht, Wahrscheinlichkeit für Kurseinbruch wächst

Damit hat sich meine kleine persönliche Chartanalyse tatsächlich bestätigt.
Fehlsignale mit einzuplanen ist die "Neue" Charttechnik.
GS und HFT sei dank.

Es gab zwei "gute" / bzw. "zuverlässige" bärische Toppingsignal auf einmal  (Bilder siehe: www.ariva.de/Today_Hanging_Man_am_Trendwendepunkt_t283343 und www.ariva.de/Island_Topping_Hanging_Man_t283343)  
von denen der Hanging Man nach unten aufgelöst wurde und somit ein sehr starkes Toppingsignal geliefert hat. 
Das Island Topping war nicht ganz regelgerecht.

Sehr gutes Indiz, dass die "Rallye" weitergeht ist für mich immer wenn Momentum-Topaktien bzw. die modernen Indexverzerrungswerkzeuge wie z.B. AAPL nicht mit dem Markt weiterfallen.
Das sieht man schön im CHart von 11:00 bis 15:00 ortsszeit.

AAPL hat das Level gehalten, aber der SPX ging stück für Stück deutlich in die Knie.
Zeigt mir, dass die großen Trader weiterhin willens sind zu distributieren.
Sagt mir aber auch, dass wir nicht mehr fern von der tatsächlichen Trendwende sind!

Diese könnte tatsächlich schon vor Weihnachten einsetzen, wenn wir in diesem ahlsbrecherischen Tempo weiter steigen.

http://www.ariva.de/...A_Baeren_Thread_t283343?page=2116#jumppos52924

Wenn ich mir das extreme Volumen der Apple-Aktie oben in den letzten Minuten anschaue, kann ich mir vorstellen, dass die "Punktlandung" nur ein Zwischenschritt auf dem Weg neuen jahreshochs ist...

www.zerohedge.com/article/...tion-following-deep-2010-downturn
....SocGen's Albert Edwards once again stalks out the Black Swan in left field and posits the contrarian view de jour: China will aggressively devalue the yuan following a deep 2010 downturn coupled with escalating trade wars. As Edwards says: "I think the next 18 months will see major ructions in the financial markets. The consequences of a double-dip back into recession next year require some lateral thinking. If the carry trade unwind results in a turbo-charged dollar, any collapse in the China economic bubble will be doubly destructive to commodity prices. A surging dollar, coupled with China moving into sustained trade deficit through 2010, could prompt the Chinese authorities to acquiesce to US pressure for a more flexible exchange rate. But why does no-one expect a yuan devaluation?"

The critical observations from Edwards that may end up being spot on, courtesy of everyone with an FX account being short the dollar:
Investors seem to have spotted that the global economic cycle may be on the wane. The ECRI leading indicator for US activity has now slid for five weeks in a row. Recent data such as the slumping October US housing starts are causing very valid jitters of what will occur as the turbo-charged fiscal stimulus now starts to abate.

...I envisage, geo-political tensions are likely to increase sharply. And with trade barriers already beginning to be erected in a recovery, investors should be really concerned about what might unfold in any renewed global recession. Aggressive competitive devaluation and a proliferation of trade barriers would become an increasing prospect in 2010.
I show below one of my favourite charts of what world trade did in the 1930s. Politicians reassure us that they have learnt the lessons from that period. Unfortunately, all I see are more and more protectionist measures being implemented, belying the soothing rhetoric.
Some serious concerns are emerging in the US about the sustainability of this recovery. And so they should! The jump in unemployment rate above 10% was entirely consistent with what is occurring in some of the other labour market surveys. The Conference Board Survey, for example, shows no abatement in the gloom about job availability (see the chart below). In addition, the moderation in job losses in the payroll data to its 188,000 average over the last three months vastly overstates the improvement. The Household Survey measure of jobs typically leads the payroll measure because it includes a better snapshot of what is going on with smaller companies. And this series shows a renewed downturn with job losses averaging a worrying 588,000 over the last three months (see chart below). Double-dip here we come.

Our Asian Economist Glenn Maguire has been very right on China this year. I was chatting to him on my recent visit to the region and he re-emphasised his call that China will be heading into trade DEFICIT (!) throughout 2010. This is a mega-call and will have major implications for the global financial markets. First and most obviously is that China will not be accumulating FX reserves at anywhere near its recent pace. This has implications not just for US treasuries etc., but also for the pace of Chinese growth itself, as the rise in reserves has previously been a major stimulus to domestic monetary growth and activity .

The fear of a cessation of flows of funds out of China in the event of a shift into trade deficit might also combine with similar worries about Japan. I, like many others, am increasingly concerned that the Japanese authorities may be nearing the end of the road in their ability to fund the out-of-control public sector deficit. Japan has been a major source of flows of funds for the global economy over the years as a direct mirror image of its massive trade and  current account surpluses. Currently Japan is seeing huge long-term outflows (see chart below). A spike higher in JGB yields could seriously impair these capital outflows.

And the conclusion could very well be the harbinger of a major 2010 black swan (together with who knows what else courtesy of the Fed's central planning policy).

   Imagine we are in the middle of 2010. Imagine the western economies (plus Japan) are sliding back into recession as the lack of additional fiscal stimulus reduces 2010 GDP growth back to its weak underlying rate (deficits need to widen to boost the economy). Imagine also that in 2010 the Chinese economy is beginning to roll over. China'?s vulnerability is perhaps far higher than the bulls suppose, having engaged in the same sort of recession defying stimulus as the US in 2003. The US authorities in no way thought gently tapping the monetary brakes in 2005/6 would end in the biggest economic and market crashes since the Great Depression. Personally, I see the Chinese conjuncture as little different ?- in particular, the market's? confidence that the authorities are in control of events opens the possibility of a rude shock.

   I am reassured that my views are not totally bananas when two of the deepest thinkers in the markets are also concerned about a Chinese economic crash. Edward Chancellor thinks China is a bubble waiting to burst (link - he is one of the worlds leading thinkers on bubbles and the author of the seminal book on the history of bubbles The Devil Take the Hindmost). I was also reading a news report on the views of Jim Chanos at Kynikos Associates -? link. Amid all the bullish hype on China, it is well worth taking some time to read these men'?s views.

   Any synchronized end in Chinese and US recovery will undoubtedly heighten geo-political tensions and accelerate the inevitable trend towards protection


Any synchronized end in Chinese and US recovery will undoubtedly heighten geo-political tensions and accelerate the inevitable trend towards protectionism. The trend towards competitive devaluation will also increase. And in the case of China, if its economy founders unexpectedly and unemployment soars, no lever to restore growth should be ruled out, including devaluation. With the potential for the dollar to soar, in the same way the yen did in 2008 as risk carry trades unwound, this may be all too much for a beleaguered Chinese economy. With a Chinese trade deficit and a loss of confidence in the growth miracle, China?'s reserves will in all probability be in decline. What better way of meeting the American?s call for greater flexibility than to give them what they want? The Chinese may yet respond to the new market pressures and devalue. 2010 could be a very lively year

A devaluation in the renminbi relative to the dollar will likely short-circuit all the millions of FX algos that expect a perpetual peg if not outright Chinese currency appreciation. This solidifies our view that the US Dollar is poised to become the next iteration of the Volkswagen short squeeze in the near- to medium-turn.

www.hussmanfunds.net/wmc/wmc091123.htm

....in the current situation, the assumption that the credit crisis is behind us is completely out of line with what possibly could result from the marriage of deep employment losses and an onerous reset schedule on mortgages that have extremely high loan-to-value ratios. A major second wave of mortgage losses isn't a question of whether the economy will post a positive GDP print this quarter or next. Rather, it is a structural  feature of the debt market that is baked into the cake because of how the mortgages were designed and issued in the first place.

If one wishes to monitor the markets for emerging signs of risk, several areas are worth watching. First, the FDIC should release its most current Quarterly Banking Profile later this week. That report will be an interesting gauge of emerging credit stress.Yet even here, a lot of the pressure to properly account for losses on off-balance sheet entities and so forth won't start until next year. In the meantime, credit spreads in general, and credit-default swaps on individual companies may bear closer attention in the weeks ahead. Finally, given the enormous pressure there may be to put a good face on increasingly bad assets, the departure of the chief financial officer of at least one major banking institution, which would not surprise me early next year, might be a sign that all hell could break loose.

......From my perspective, we are again at the point where we should be alert for tanks. We already know that stocks are priced to deliver a 10-year total return in the area of 6.1% annually - among the lowest levels observed in history except for the period since the late-1990's (which despite periodic advances has ultimately not worked out well for investors). We are already observing evidence of weak sponsorship from a volume perspective and growing non-confirmations of recent highs from the standpoint of market internals. The cumulative tally of surprises in economic reports (a metric we credit to Bridgewater, which Bill Hester adapted here), has also turned down decidedly. Though the historical correlation is not always as strong as it has been during the recent downturn, shifts in economic surprises have tended to lead market turns in recent years.

auch die Citi -es scheint sie noch immer zu geben- entwickelt ein Alptraumszenario:
www.businessinsider.com/...cenario-for-commodity-bulls-2009-11

Risk is on so far this holiday week, but the bigger question is how long will that trade work.

 

The dollar fell and commodities were mostly higher as the Dow climbed Monday to its highest level in more than a year. Treasuries were a mixed picture, with buyers pushing yields in the long end lower. The Dow rose 132 to 10,320, while the S&P 500 climbed 14 to 1106. Gold continued to shine, closing at a new high of $1164.30, an increase of 1.6 percent, but oil was just barely higher at $77.48 per barrel.

A jump of 10.1 percent in October existing home sales added fuel to Monday's rally.

"You have people wanting to buy Treasurys for yearend balance sheet purposes, and you have a Fed that's not moving, so people are buying everything," said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist at Deutsche Bank.

Tuesday's calendar is heavy on news about housing and the consumer, plus there is the revision to third quarter GDP.  The Fed's Nov. 4 meeting minutes are released at 2 p.m. and the FDIC gives an update on banks and bank earnings. #0000ff">There is an auction of $42 billion in 5-year notes at 1 p.m. (der nächste Schwung T Bills)

Fed minutes are being watched carefully both for an economic update and any inkling of what Fed policy makers are thinking about what could trigger a move in rates. The Fed's last statement signaled the market that there are no changes coming from the Fed any time soon, which is conducive to the risk rally.

 

The S&P/Case Shiller home price survey is released at 9 a.m. while consumer confidence is reported at 10 a.m. GDP is released at 8:30 a.m.

Economists expect to see GDP revised to show growth of 2.8 percent, down from the initial reading of 3.5 percent. LaVorgna's estimate is for 3 percent. "I've got a downward revision, largely on the back of softer construction spending and a wider trade deficit," said LaVorgna. He said one wild card that could add to the number is capital spending, which was surprisingly weak in the first report.

"The other thing you want to look for is we get the first read of economy wide corporate profits. In the first half of the year, corporate profits grew at a nearly 20 percent annualized rate. I think you're going to see a pretty good corporate profit number based on the fact that nominal GDP went positive," he said.

Traders are split about how long the tightly linked risk trade will work. Steve Massocca, managing director at Wedbush Securities, said Monday that he's hedging his bet and is beginning to short assets that benefit from the trade.

"The dollar is getting close to 2008 lows, and it could start to become bad news, and you have to prepare for it,"  he said. "We haven't taken the plunge yet but we're starting to nibble on the idea that the dollar going down is no longer going to create levity."

 

He said he still has long positions, and one of his favorites is in dividend paying stocks. Some of the names he likes are Kraft , Heinz , AT&T and Verizon . Telecoms, in fact were the best performing of the S&P sectors, gaining 2.6 percent Monday. The worst performer was consumer discretionary, up 0.9 percent.

Massocca said he is not playing the retailers this holiday season. "It's a bifurcated market," he said of retail names. He said both ends of the spectrum - high end and discounter - should do better than those in between.

"auch die Citi -es scheint sie noch immer zu geben- entwickelt ein Alptraumszenario:"

... heute nacht sehr gut träumen lassen, und - wie man heute morgen aus China so hört - vielleicht nicht ganz unfundiert... ;-)

Die Details zur BIP-Schätzung sind da: Steigende Investitionen haben der deutschen Wirtschaft im dritten Quartal das stärkste Wachstum seit eineinhalb Jahren beschert. „Die deutsche Wirtschaft scheint sich weiter zu erholen“, sagte ein Statistiker. Doch vor allem ein Faktor erwies sich als Wachstumshemmnis.

http://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/...deutsche-wirtschaft-an;2488442

besonders an die offiziellen chinesischen Zahlen, werde ich nie begreifen. Eine Gesellschaft, in der alles manipuliert ist, in der jede Kritik zur eigenen Vernichtung führen kann, soll die Welt aus der Krise führen? Und dann gibt es auch noch Verrückte, die ihr letztes Geld in China investieren.

bei China ist es sehr ähnlicher Effekt wie mit den Staaten aus dem ehem. Ostblock. So wurde bspw. das BIP erst über Jahre hinweg "richtig" ausgewiesen. Der Grund hierfür ist die mangelnde Ausgestaltung der Erfassungsprozesse - sprich, nicht alle Tätigkeiten und v.a. nicht in der korrekten Höhe wurde erfasst bzw. berechnet. Was bei den Chinesen für exorbitante Wachstumsschübe sorgt sind Produktivitätswachstum (begründet durch Humankapitalanstieg), ressourcenorientiertes Wachstum (aktuell keine Abschreibungen - im Gegenteil, eher Zuschreibungen auf die Rohstoffvorkommnisse durch Preisanstiege), etc.

Ein Vergleich der Erfassung der Wertschöpfung wäre in der Tat eine wissenschaftliche Herausforderung, die man im Zuge einer Dissertation erarbeiten könnte ;-))

aber der Krug geht halt nunmal solange zum Brunnen, bis er bricht.

Der Chef der Hongkonger Währungsbehörde Norman Chan:

“Wir sind uns sicher, dass der größte Teil der Vermögensblase erst im Entstehen begriffen ist. Der danach entstehende Schaden wird bei Platzen dieser Blase umso größer sein”
In Anbetracht der außerordentlich niedrigen Zinsen und der weltweit im Überfluss vorhandenen Liquidität sehe sich Hongkong im nächsten Jahr mit einem potenziellen Risiko aus kräftig gestiegenen Vermögenspreisen konfrontiert. Viele andere asiatische Volkswirtschaften stünden wegen der starken Kapitalzuflüsse vor ähnlichen Problemen.
Obwohl für diese Volkswirtschaften die Möglichkeit besteht über Zinsanhebungen Preisabkühlungen herbeizuführen könnten derartige Maßnahmen die durch Carry-Trades finanzierten Kapitalzuflüsse noch verstärken und eventuell kontraproduktive Effekte streuen.

Zhang Xin ist Chefin von Soho China, einem der erfolgreichsten privat geführten chinesischen Immobilienkonzernen. Sie warnt vor einer chinesischer Immo-Bubble:

Nach ihren Worten führe die Vermögensblase zu verheerenden ungezügelten Investments in dem Sektor. Die langfristigen Wachstumsperspektiven des Landes würden dadurch untergraben. Die Immobilienpreise dürften zunächst steigen, zumal der allgemeine Wunsch nach dem Gebrauch von Kapazitäten vorhanden sei. Aber es komme der Zeitpunkt, wo quer durch das ganze Land in jedem Immobiliensegment mehr und mehr Gebäude ungenützt bleiben. Die anziehenden Preise seien eine direkte Folge der von den Banken bereit gestellten großen Geldmengen. Die chinesischen Banken müssten sich darüber sorgen