Der USA Bären-Thread

sieht man an den beiden Musterknaben von steigenden Dreiecken im Gold. Passt alles zusammen, Kaufsignal im Williams, Momentum hat gedreht...
Aber wer mit OS hantiert, sollte den Ausbruch abwarten, denn eigentlich fehlt noch eine kleine Korrekturwelle nach unten.
Die Frage, die sich mir stellt, ist nun, woher fundamental die Stärke kommt? Vertrauensverlust in Papiergeld und Aktien und Banken?

Hallo Freunde!
Auf Grund eines massiven Rechnerproblems war ich bis heute aus dem Verkehr gezogen. Ich habe jedoch wohl nicht viel versäumt. Zunächst muss ich mal alle Programme und meine verloren gegangenen Web-Favoriten neu installieren. Das wird eine verflixte Arbeit werden, da ich eine Menge gespeichert hatte. Viel kann ich diese Woche nicht mehr bewerkstelligen, da ich von Freitag bis Sonntag mit meinen Kegelfreunden auf Tour bin. Ab nächster Woche werde ich mich jedoch wieder nach und nach im Thread einbringen.

ad SPX: Beachtet die große Keilformation seit März/Mai! Vom Mai-Hoch bis zum August-Hoch hat die Preiskurve gerade mal noch rund 100 Punkte zugelegt. Die von mir angedachte "Megafon-Formation" ist immer noch relevant.

Das Investment in Silber war -vom Timing- ein reiner Glücksgriff. Die steigende Nervorsität ist jedoch fühlbar. Es wird den Regierungen von Seiten der Vermögenden und der Vermögensverwalter immer weniger zugetraut die Wirtschaft wieder ans laufen zu bringen. Ebenso glaubt kein Mensch an die Möglichkeit die Staatshaushalte zu konsolidieren.

Edelmetalle erfüllen hier die Funktion eines Lückenbßers. Grundsätzlich sind Edelmetalle überflüssig -bis auf kleinere industrielle Anwendungen. In Krisen schlüpfen sie in die Rolle der Wertaufbewahrungsfunktion, eine Rolle die dem Währungssystem immer weniger zugetraut wird. Dieser Prozess spielt sich in den Köpfen der Marktteilnehmer ab. Aber wem erzähle ich das, ihr kennt den Markt mindestens so gut wie ich, ..........................

Permanent

A U.S. federal judge ruled that Morgan Stanley and two credit rating agencies must defend fraud charges in a class-action lawsuit accusing them of masking the risks of an investment linked to subprime mortgages, and which eventually collapsed.

U.S. District Judge Shira Scheindlin on Wednesday rejected efforts by Morgan Stanley , Moody's Moody's Investors Service and McGraw-Hill's Standard & Poor's to dismiss fraud claims brought by the plaintiffs, Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank and King County in Washington state.

She dismissed the plaintiffs' remaining claims, and all claims against a fourth defendant, Bank of New York Mellon , while granting permission for the plaintiffs to amend their complaint.

Scheindlin's ruling could affect other lawsuits brought by pension funds and other investors, seeking to hold banks and credit raters responsible for hyping the value of complex debt to win fees and causing investor losses as the debt collapsed.

The case concerned the Cheyne Structured Investment Vehicle (SIV), which went bankrupt in August 2007 after the quality of its assets plummeted. Many investors in Cheyne-related notes
lost much or all of their investments.

SIVs are complex packages of loans and debt, including collateralized debt obligations, that once held some $350 billion of assets before falling out of favor.

The California Public Employees' Retirement System, the nation's largest public pension fund, in July sued Moody's, S&P and Fitch Ratings over losses on Cheyne and other SIVs.

In the New York case, the plaintiffs alleged that Morgan Stanley wrongly marketed Cheyne as a high-quality investment, and that the rating agencies assigned improperly high ratings.

 

The complaint also accused Bank of New York Mellon, acting as a depositary and processing agent, of improperly valuing Cheyne's assets and delivering reports to the rating agencies.

In a 68-page ruling, Scheindlin said the plaintiffs pleaded enough facts to let the fraud claims case go forward.

"Where both the rating agencies and Morgan Stanley knew that the ratings process was flawed, knew that the portfolio was not a safe, stable investment, and knew that the rating
agencies could not issue an objective rating because of the effect it would have on their compensation, it may be plausibly inferred that Morgan Stanley and the rating agencies knew they were disseminating false and misleading ratings," she wrote.

Scheindlin set an Oct. 1 status conference in the case.

McGraw-Hill spokesman Frank Briamonte said the company was pleased that Scheindlin dismissed all but one of 11 claims it faced, and said it was "confident" it would prevail on the
remaining claim.

Bank of New York Mellon spokesman Kevin Heine had no immediate comment. The rest of the parties did not immediately return calls or e-mails seeking comment.

The case is Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank v. Morgan Stanley, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York (Manhattan), No. 08-7508.

Der geliehene Aufschwung ist da 

03.09.2009, 07:10 Uhr von Axel Schrinner

China kauft IWF-Anleihen für Milliarden

03.09.2009 , 07:21 Uhr

Nachdem am Montag schon die Gerüchte kursierten, dass eine große US-Bank sich in erheblichen Schwierigkeiten befinden soll, siehe auch hier

jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/09/rumours-du-jour.html

ist mit Zunahme der Bankenpleiten in den USA

siehe auch #48490 und www2.fdic.gov/qbp/2009jun/qbp.pdf  

durchaus vorstellbar, dass Gold sich mit großer Wahrscheinlichkeit künftig weiterhin in Richtung Norden bewegen wird.

Hier funktionierende Links zu den beiden Artikeln, die Permanent heute morgen reingestellt hat:

www.handelsblatt.com/politik/...hene-aufschwung-ist-da;2452316

www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/anleihen/...r-milliarden;2452384

Rev Shark Blog
Dip-Buyers Lack Juice
By Rev Shark
Street.com Contributor
9/2/2009 4:21 PM EDT

Although the indices hardly moved today, it was a troubling day for the bulls. After the intense selling on Tuesday, we should have seen more aggressive dip-buying and/or a bigger reflexive bounce. What we had instead was a most meager dead-cat bounce. All the buyers were able to do was hold us steady. After months of squeezing the shorts just as they started to gain an edge, the dip-buyers had no juice today.

In addition to the lack of bounce, we had a sudden rampage of buying in gold stocks. You have to ponder whether a sudden rush for a tradition safe harbor is something more than just momentum traders lighting up the sector for a day or two. It is quite easy to read something dire into that action.

The good news is that volume was light and there seems to be a high level of disinterest rather than outright aversion. Things still look rather precarious but as I've been writing we have yet to do any really serious technical damage. That doesn't mean we shouldn't be cautious but I am still looking for the bulls to get a little upside move here soon, especially with important jobs numbers coming up on Friday.
 

"heim ins Reich" holen....

Sep 3, 2009, 4:29 a.m. EST
Hong Kong recalls gold reserves, says it can store it at home
Invites Asian states to store bullion in new facility, in bid to become gold hub

By Chris Oliver, MarketWatch

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Hong Kong is pulling all its physical gold holdings from depositories in London, transferring it to a newly-built high-security depository at the city's airport, in a move that won praise from local traders Thursday.

The facility, industry professionals said, would support Hong Kong's emergence as Swiss-style bullion trading hub and help lessen dependency upon London as center of settlement and storage....


www.marketwatch.com/story/...-london-2009-09-03?dist=bigcharts

dann kann  der Baltic Dry ja wieder steigen.

China pushes silver and gold investment to the masses

A report suggests that the Chinese government is pushing the general public into buying gold and silver bullion, which could have a dramatic effect on the markets.

Author: Lawrence Williams
Posted:  Thursday , 03 Sep 2009

LONDON - 

We are indebted again to Paul Mylchreest's  Thunder Road Report  for news that will bring big smiles to gold and silver investors everywhere.  Apparently China is pushing the idea of buying gold and silver for investment purposes to the general population in the way that Western television sells soap powder.  If 1.3 billion Chinese citizens start buying gold and silver, even in tiny quantities, imagine what that will do to the market!

The report notes that China's Central Television, the main state-owned television company, has run a news programme letting the public know how easy it is to buy precious metals as an investment.  On silver investment the announcer is quoted as saying " China has introduced its first ever investment opportunity for silver bullion. The bars are available in 500g, 1kg, 2kg and 5kg with a purity of 99.9%. Figures show that gold was fifty times more expensive than silver in 2007, but now that figure has reached over seventy times. Analysts say that silver has been undervalued in recent years. They add that the metal is the right investment for individual investors and could be a good way to cash in."

What appears to have happened in China is a total relaxation of strictures on holding precious metals by the individual with the government pushing gold and silver as an investment option, seemingly at every opportunity.  This is a far cry from the situation only a few years ago where the distribution of gold and silver was strictly controlled.  Now, the Thunder Road Report notes that every bank will sell gold and silver bullion bars in four different sizes to individuals and gold related investments are said to be soaring in popularity.

Around a year ago, Leyshon Resources managing director, Paul Atherley, in an investor presentation in London - and no doubt delivered elsewhere in the world too - commented that some employees at the company's gold mining project in northern China would, on pay day, go to the local bank and buy a small gold bar as an investment and wealth protector.  To an extent we put this down at the time to mining company hype - but this seems to be exactly the same phenomenon noted by Thunder Road.  The Chinese are being converted from being the lowest per capita gold consumers in the world to a nation of small precious metals investors.  Now, by next year, Chinese consumption of gold is likely to exceed that of India, which has been for years the world's biggest gold market.  And one suspects that the potential for gold purchasing by individuals is only in its earliest stages.  As more and more Chinese move into the cities and individual wealth grows, this trend is only likely to accelerate.

Paul ends the piece on Chinese gold and silver potential with the following comment: "Simply put, the Chinese government is trying to trigger a national gold craze...and it's working. The Chinese public now has gold trading platforms on steroids.... ...Also, for the first time in history, Chinese investors can even trade gold abroad (in London) with the swipe of a ‘Lucky Gold' card. I can't even get Bank of America to open a foreign currency account."

This may be an overstatement of the case from a precious metals bull - or it may not!  Certainly if China is indeed pushing the public to buy gold then there may well be a hidden agenda here.  It's unlikely they are doing it and will suddenly pull the rug out from under millions of investors.  A cynic (or a raging gold bull) would suggest that this will precede a move to switch a good proportion of the country's reserves into gold which would have a huge effect on the global gold price and could prove disastrous for the dollar.  Maybe it's not in China's interests to drive the dollar down too much until it has managed to divest itself of the huge dollar overhang (see the article on Chinese Sovereign Wealth Funds we published yesterday - Chinese sovereign wealth fund dumping dollars for strategic investments like gold  ).  The country may well already be, of course, surreptitiously building its gold reserves without reporting the build-up. 

If the Chinese are indeed beginning to buy gold and silver as the quoted report suggests then this has to be a strong signal that prices are going to rise, and perhaps rise dramatically, in the relatively near future.  We await comment from other China watchers for confirmation of the gold and silver buying spree, but with global gold production at best flat and probably in decline, even a small increase in Chinese buying could have a substantial impact on gold and silver prices

Gold ist zu schwer, die Frachter versinken - und der Index mit ihnen.

Außer sie nehmen nur je eine Kiste mit Barren und als Füllmasse 50000 Säcke Daunen an Board. Dann zöge sich der Transport aber über Monate, wenn nicht Jahre hin. Inzwischen sind China und USA pleite.

Ich ahnte schon, dass Idioten dahinter stecken.

http://www.ariva.de/...latzt_die_Goldblase_t366503?page=15#jumppos391

der Gold Chart in ein steigendes Dreieck, andererseits würde bei 1000 der Eigenhandel wieder einen Absturz "verlangen". Was macht Goldmännchen?

würde wenigstens die auf halde liegenden schiffe wieder in bewegung setzen. dann stünde dem ungebremsten aufschwung mit jährlichen wachstumsraten im 4 stelligen bereich nichts mehr im wege.

auch weniger Ansporn. Würden die gesamten Gold- Reserven Hongkongs auf einem einzigen großen Schiff transportiert, müsste die Royal Navy dieses über die ganze Strecke eskortieren. Da wär es einfacher, die Navy gleich mit dem Transport zu beauftragen.

dass London das Gold überhaupt rausrückt...

Falls nicht, wäre das eine Nagelprobe für den Weltfrieden und eine Warnung zum Gesundheitszustand der Weltfinanzen.

zu schnell. Ich habe meine Silberscheine (KO Calls) veräußert und konservativer wieder angelegt:
http://www.ariva.de/Ich_habe_meine_t251492?pnr=6422760#jump6422760

London wird das Gold rausrücken ansonsten hätte London als Verwahrstelle ausgedient. Ist das Vertrauen verloren, läuft es mit den Geschäften nicht mehr.

Unser Gold liegt zum überwiegenden Teil ebenfalls in New York und London.

Permanent

das London das Gold überhaupt noch hat.

Falls nicht wäre das vermutlich die Katastrophe.

Einem investigativen Bildreporter gelang dieser enthüllende Schnappschuss, der die Wahrheit über die Gold-Tresore in Fort Knox offenbart!

ROUNDUP: Aufträge im Maschinenbau eingebrochen - Kein Aufschwung in Sicht

12:19 03.09.09

http://www.ariva.de/news/...ebrochen-Kein-Aufschwung-in-Sicht-3066248

Konjunktur

OECD: Rosige Aussicht für deutsche Konjunktur

 

http://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/...er-deutsche-konjunktur;2452603

The Federal Reserve will have to raise interest rates as aggressively as it cut them when it becomes clear the economic recovery has taken hold, to avoid flaring up inflation, Charles Plosser, president of the Philadelphia Fed, told CNBC in an interview.

 

Analysts have been worried that the various stimulus programmes and money-printing around the world will cause devaluation and price rises, and some European officials have suggested that all stimulus measures be pulled out at once to prevent that.

The Fed has an exit strategy, which it will apply when needed, Plosser said.

"Our exit strategy is really quite simple: we have to begin to pull back from our extraordinary programs, we have to begin to shrink our balance sheet, otherwise we will feel inflation in the months and years ahead," he said.

For the next few quarters inflation is not a problem but it may become so later unless the Fed orchestrates its exit carefully, according to Plosser.

 

"We have the tools to do that, the question is will we be able to discern the appropriate time and the timing of that to do it in a way that will head off any future inflation," he said. "And that may mean raising interest rates very rapidly, at least as aggressively as we cut interest rates, if the time is right."

Asked whether rate rises are likely in 2009, Plosser said "probably not." About the possibility of hikes next year, he said "we'll have to wait and see how the recovery evolves."

The US economy is in transition from a period of very sharp contraction to an expansion and it will be helped by improved growth overseas, which will boost exports, as well as by renewal of depleted inventories, which will boost factories' output, Plosser predicted.

"Gradually over the course of the next few months I expect the good news to become more dominant and I'm looking for some growth in the second part of this year," he added.

The commercial real estate sector, where lowering valuations can end up affecting the banks, and unemployment, which is a lagging indicator, are the biggest clouds overshadowing the recovery, according to Plosser.