Der USA Bären-Thread

Sept. 9, 2009, 9:25 p.m. EDT
Stock market may collapse again, TCW's Gundlach says

By Alistair Barr, MarketWatch

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The stock market's recent rally is likely to run out of steam soon and equity prices may collapse again, Jeffrey Gundlach, chief investment officer at Los Angeles-based mutual-fund giant TCW Group Inc., said Wednesday.

The benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 index is "extremely unlikely" to climb above 1,100, before collapsing again, he said during a conference call.

"You've made 90% of the money you're gonna make in this rally," Gundlach said, advising investors to sell on strength when the S&P 500 is above 1,000.

The S&P 500 closed at 1,033 Wednesday, leaving it up more than 50% since early March.

Gundlach, who also runs TCW's flagship Total Return Bond Fund (TGLMX 10.02, +0.04, +0.40%) , had spotted cracks that subprime mortgages were forming in the financial system by June 2007 and was among the first to warn that an era of easy money would come to a bad end. See full story on Gundlach's warning.

His new concern is the massive debt being accumulated by the U.S. government as it tries to stimulate an economy that's been mired in the worst recession since the World War II.

"We're basically borrowing money and calling it economic growth," he said on Wednesday. "It's not real economic activity."

Debt-fueled government stimulus, such as the "cash for clunkers" program, may keep the U.S. economy growing for one or two years, but then growth will probably "just die," Gundlach said.

Cash for clunkers, in which the government gave up to $4,500 to new car buyers if they handed in old gas-guzzling vehicles, illustrates another of Gundlach's concerns, that of deflation.

"Deflation is so strong that you can't even sell cars unless you slash prices 20% through government subsidies," he said.

Gundlach is similarly bearish on credit markets and commodity prices, arguing that "a turning point is close at hand in these markets."

One of the few areas he's bullish on is the U.S. dollar -- but not for good reasons.

Gundlach sees such large debt defaults in coming years that he thinks the trend will cut the supply of dollars, pushing up the currency's value.

"We're standing on the edge of a major default wave," he said. "Defaults are the elimination of dollars. You could eliminate so much actual wealth that this could be the source of a strong dollar rally."

Alistair Barr is a reporter for MarketWatch in San Francisco.

www.marketwatch.com/story/...se-again-gundlach-says-2009-09-09

  Bereits zum Beginn der kommenden Woche dürften sie jedoch abgewickelt sein. Als Kurstreiber fallen sie damit aus. Auch der "Hexensabbat" wird dann wohl zu keinen größeren Verwerfungen mehr führen. "Die Erwartungshaltung dürfte hoch, die tatsächlichen Verfalltagseffekte aber gering sein", sagt auch Volker Bien, Analyst beim UniCredit dazu. "Die 'Squeezes', die ein Verfall indiziert hätte, haben wir schon gesehen", so der Analyst mit Verweis auf die explosionsartigen Kursgewinne mancher Aktien.

  Den DAX erwartet Bien am kommenden Verfalls-Freitag um 5.360 Punkte, was einem Minus von 3,8% gegenüber dem XETRA-Schlusskurs vom Donnerstag bei 5.595 Punkten entsprechen würde. Verglichen mit dem bisherigen freitäglichen Hoch von 5.641 Punkten würde das Rückschlagpotenzial gar bei 5,0% liegen.

  Diese Annahme, so der UniCredit-Analyst, werde durch die Situation des S&P-500-Index gestützt. Das Verhältnis von Put- zu Call-Optionen liege bei dem US-Aktienkursbarometer auf ähnlichem Niveau wie beim DAX. Lediglich der durchschnittliche Strike-Preis auf der Put-Seite sei etwas höher.

  Mit Blick auf die kommenden drei Tage erwartet Bien, dass der S&P-500-Index eine Evening-Star-Formation ausbilden wird, deren Top er bei 1.060 Punkten ausmacht. Das Settlement für die Futures und Optionen auf den S&P-500-Index sieht er bei 1.025 Punkten. "Damit erwarte ich für die Woche des Verfalls das Risiko einer Abwärtsbewegung um 3,3%", so der UniCredit-Analyst (...)

weiter unter:
www.finanzen.net/nachricht/aktien/...-Gedaechtnis-Woche-669009

da sicher der Kredit staatlich gestützt auf Niedrigzins umgeschuldet wurde, lässt man den stehen und hofft mal wieder auf Lohnerhöhung, Inflation und Selbstabzahlung. Wieso also sein Haus mit 800.000 tilgen, wenn es nur 500.000 wert ist? Das Vermögen schrumpft von 1,2 auf 0,7 Mio.
Gleichzeitig erhofft man abwertungsgehebelte Auslandsgewinne. Man ist sparsam geworden, erst wegen des Crashs, wegen der Schulden, jetzt fürchtet man Teuerung. Man spart und kauft davon neue Aktien.

Man kann in den USA auch auf das Kreditscoring pfeifen und das Haus samt Kredit an die Bank zurückgeben.
Schrumpft das Depot auf 700.000 und fällt der Hauswert auf 400.000, kauft man ein anderes, gibts dann in gleicher Qualität an jeder Ecke, und besitzt immer noch genauso viel wie bei einer Tilgung jetzt. Oder sitzt das aus.

Das mit dem Haus war nur ein Beispiel, um den Sachverhalt einfach beschreiben zu können. Die Haupt-Akteure und -Adressaten einer Bilanzrezession sind Corporates.

Bei vertieftem Interesse: The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics: Lessons from Japans Great Recession

Import Prices Rebound in August, Up 2.0% on Energy Prices; Export Prices down 6.1%

"When the numbers come out next year at this time, I expect them to look even worse," said Robert Greenstein, executive director of the left-leaning Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

The statistics reflect the toll the recession has taken on the nation since the downturn officially began in December 2007.

The nation's poverty rate rose to 13.2 percent in 2008, up from 12.5 percent in 2007, the Census Bureau data showed. That was the first significant increase since 2004 and the highest level in 11 years.

In all, 39.8 million Americans were living in poverty in 2008, defined as an income of $22,025 for a family of four. The last time there were that many poor people was 1960, although the nation's population was smaller then.
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Almost one in five children younger than 18 are living in poverty, with the total number rising from 13.3 million in 2007 to 14.1 million in 2008.

In a measure of the breadth of the decline, median household income -- the amount earned by a family at the exact center of the income scale -- sank 3.6 percent in 2008: from $52,163 to $50,303. In 1998, at the height of the tech stock boom, the comparable income was $51,295. All the figures were adjusted for inflation.

The drop in median household income was the first in four years. It had stagnated for four years after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

"We've basically seen a lost decade," said Lawrence Katz, an economist at Harvard University. "We had a plutocratic boom. Then we have egalitarian recessions. Taken together, only the top ends up growing, on average. For the typical American family, the 2000s have been a disaster."

The income loss is the largest one-year decline on record, said Lawrence Mishel, president of the liberal Economic Policy Institute, tracing it to the number of people shifting from full-time jobs to part-time work.

Although incomes went down for all races, Hispanics experienced some of the biggest losses. Income declined 5.6 percent for Hispanic households, 4.4 percent for Asians, 2.8 percent for African American families and 2.6 percent for non-Hispanic whites. Hispanics and Asians also showed the biggest increases in poverty rates.

www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/.../ST2009091100188.html

Video game sales fell 16% in August from a year earlier
The drop was the industry's sixth consecutive monthly decline, according to a report released by market research firm NPD Group.

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By Alex Pham

September 11, 2009

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Boom! Not even John Madden and his trademark expressions could avert the crash in video game sales in August, which fell 16% from last year.

The drop was the industry's sixth consecutive monthly decline, according to a report released Thursday by market research firm NPD Group Inc.

That means sales of games and game consoles must grow 14% in the last four months of the year for 2009 sales to be flat with 2008, NPD analyst Anita Frazier said.

Even sales of Madden NFL 10, a football simulation game developed by Electronic Arts Inc., were down last month from a year earlier. "It is discouraging that one of our highest-rated and best-marketed Madden titles in years is facing strong head winds," EA Chief Executive John Riccitiello said.

alex.pham@latimes.com

Copyright © 2009, The Los Angeles Times

www.latimes.com/business/...-games11-2009sep11,0,6677690.story

verstehe ich die daten richtig: die amis müssen mehr für ihre importe bezahlen und kriegen weniger für ihre exporte (stark vereinfacht ausgedrückt)?

Dieser Thread dient auch in nicht unerheblichem Masse zur Unterhaltung der Teilnehmer wie auch alle anderen Threads. Deine Frage wurde ja beantwortet wenn auch noch mit sarkastischem Beigeschmack.

Manchmal hab ich das gefühl Du suchst hier jemanden der Dir 100%ig sagen kann das ein Index aufgrund von dem oder jenem Grund fällt oder steigt. Das kann Dir aber weder hier noch an einem anderen Ort der Welt jemand mit bestimmtheit sagen. Und weil das so ist gibts halt manchmal ernste oder weniger ernste Auskünfte.

Heute um 16.00 Uhr kommt wiedermal das Verbrauchervertrauen. Mann könnte nun darauf wetten das das Ergebniss abverkauft wird. War jedenfalls vor zwei Wochen so.

Ich bin im Moment Long und Short gleichzeitig. Das verhindert das auf dem Depot Geld rumliegt das auf ein Investment drängt und die Verluste halten sich auch in Grenzen.

Desweiteren geh ich jetzt in den Wald ein bisschen rumrennen. Abends seh ich dann ob meine Wetten aufgegangen sind.

Heute ist übrigens auch noch die Ziehung bei "Euro-Millions" wo ich auch regelmässig mitmache.

Hoffe ein wenig geholfen zu haben.

Der Anstieg ist in den Brennstoffpreise begründet.

Auf Jahresbasis sind die Importpreise übrigens um 15% gefallen. Es handelt sich um Monatsdaten (Vergleich zum Vormonat) die über Erwartung gestiegen sind.

Gruß

Permanent

ich würde erwarten, das mir jemand sagt, ob der Index steigt oder fällt?

Ich hatte lediglich gefragt, was PMI bedeutet, weil ich das einfach wissen wollte. Auf sarkastische Kommentare kann ich da einfach gerne mal verzichten. Man fragt sich echt, ob einige Leute denken, sie müssten nichts mehr dazulernen. Ich will jedenfalls dazu lernen und stelle deshalb Fragen. Ständig wird man wegen diesen Fragen blöde von der Seite angemacht.

Nix für ungut ...

HERE

Der 567'384-ste Vergleich zwischen der Börse 1929/30 und 2008/09... Dieses Mal aber mMn sehr lesenswert die Zeitschriften-Kommentare aus der Zeit damals.

Wie sagt man so schön? "It's the animal spirits, stupid!" ;-)

Im Original ist's schöner formatiert, aber auch so überkommt einen schon die wohlige Gänsehaut... ;-)

Topics in Wall Street

The New York Times – February through April, 1930

Market Strong and With Buyers from “Remote Places” – the day traders of yore:

(February 1, 1930) “Broad buying over a wide range of issues added yesterday materially to the stock market’s stature, and sufficient stock moved forward in vigorous fashion to warrant the statement that the tone was strong...According to leading brokers, a considerable amount of the buying came from remote places over their wires.”

Recovery Occurring Faster than Expected:

(February 2, 1930) “The process of bidding up the “trading favorites” was continued...Last week’s estimates that steel production for the country at large was averaging 75 per cent of capacity, as against an average of 59 in December, seemed to guarantee a considerably larger total steel output this month than in December. The point was made, both in Wall Street and in trade circles, that this represented unusually prompt recovery. After the deflation crisis had reached an acute stage toward the end of 1929, January steel production was only 6 per cent less than in December.”

Hiring Back Laid-off Investment Bankers:

(February 2, 1930) “So substantial has been the improvement in business recently that a number of brokerage houses which reduced expenses sharply following the break of last autumn are expanding again. In some instances, employees who were let out are being taken back.”

The Ton of Cash on the Sidelines is Coming Back:

(February 5, 1930) “Brokers, with the experiences of last autumn fresh in their minds, are being surprised daily, one of them said yesterday, by the amount of cash that their customers are supplying. It was pointed out that the impression was widespread after the break that would be fully a year before the rank and file of traders would be able to repair their financial position sufficiently to get back in the market. It is being proved that a great many trader held substantial amounts in reserve and that they were not hurt so badly as was thought, a partner in one leading house said.”

Market Trading in Parallel with Commodities:

(February 5, 1930) “The speed with which the stock market rallied in sympathy with the better tone in commodities yesterday is an indication, according to brokers, of the close attention that is being paid to the commodity situation.”

New Post Crash Highs:

(February 6, 1930) “Not only did the volume yesterday establish a new high record on the Stock Exchange for 1930 but the composite averages of The New York Times moved into the highest ground that they have ever reached since the break of last autumn.”

Easy Money Used to Foster Recovery after the Crash:

(February 7, 1930) “The reduction of the bank rates in New York and London yesterday offered another example of apparent cooperation between the two markets. The movement toward lower central bank rates began on Oct. 31, last when both New York and Long cut the rate. The Federal Reserve Bank here led the British institution by a week in the next reduction, which came on Nov. 15 here and on Nov. 21 in London.”

Return to a Bull Market – the “New Era” is coming back:

(February 9, 1930) “Out of the lately improved sentiment in Wall Street has arisen a feeling among many bankers and brokers that the idea of an altogether “new era” in American finance, which was proclaimed by the new school of economists before the October panic, has not been thoroughly destroyed after all. Some investment trust executives declared last week that they would not be surprised to see a return of some of the phenomena which made the 1929 bull era so unique.”

Business is Recovering Just Fine:

(February 14, 1930) “The improvement in sentiment in Wall Street may be traced almost directly to the encouraging reports which the financial community is receiving from the leading industries of the country, according to investment trust executives. They say that the current rise in security prices is firmly grounded on the improvement in business conditions that began in December.”

More Easy Money:

(February 15, 1990) “Bringing Down the Rates - The alacrity with which other banks from the Reserve System have followed the lead of the New York

institution in reducing rediscount rates has been remarkable.”

Intraday Trading Dominates:

(February 16, 1930) “With the return last week of an installment of the army of out-and-out speculators, however, a few writers of [investment] literature had the temerity yesterday to suggest “buying stocks for a quick turn” in advices sent out to clients for perusal over the week-end. In the parlance of the financial community, the present market is a “sharpshooter’s affair,” and it is quite as important to know the hour to sell as it is the time to buy. Thus far, however, professional advisers have refrained from indicating any elaborate system of timing transactions in given stocks.”

IPO’s are Coming Back:

(February 19, 1930) “According to financial authorities the stabilization for stock holding gives promise of a gradual return to favor of the offering of common stocks through subscription rights as one of the means of conducting new financing this year.”

Were There also Algo’s in the ‘30’s?:

(February 22, 1930) “An idea of the relative size of public and professional participation in the market was offered yesterday by a broker who indicated that the volume of commission business for the public, compared with a year ago, was much smaller, while the total trading was only moderately less than that of 1929. The slack has been taken up by professional trading, this broker contends, explaining the relative narrowness of certain recent movements and the abrupt changes in trend that have mystified traders for the turn.”

Perhaps the Market is getting a Little Overbought:

(February 28, 1930) “The strength exhibited by the stock market during the last two days has not served to crystallize sentiment in brokerage circles concerning the immediate outlook for prices. While some of the brokerage comment yesterday predicted a further advance in the market, it was emphasized in other quarters that there was a need for caution. One of the most pertinent comments made held to the opinion that the market must absorb a good deal of stock at levels just a little higher than are currently ruling.”

Unfavorable News Ignored:

(March 2, 1930) “Although professional operators for the fall [shorts] have had the advantage recently, so

far as news developments were concerned, they have not been able, it was pointed out yesterday, to capitalize them as might have been expected. Among the incidents which speculators for the rise have had to contend against were the unsettlement in the grain markets, reduction in crude oil prices, price-cutting quarrels in the gasoline business, talk of increased taxation and uncertainty in the copper industry, to mention only a few.”

On Volatility:

(March 2, 1930) “Considerable comment has lately been made on the fact that advances or declines of 3 or 4 points in active stocks are nowadays discussed as of no consequence; that Wall Street does not really begin to be interested unless a rise or fall of 10 points or thereabout occurs. It was recalled last week that the attitude toward stock fluctuations prevalent before 1927 reflected much more modest expectations. A rise of 2 or 3 points in stocks was considered a demonstration of much strength; a 5-point rise caused some excitement. Discussing the reason for this change of perspective, general judgment in Wall Street last week was that the excessively violent fluctuations which occurred almost daily during 1928 and 1929 had accustomed the market to a wide daily swing of prices and that it was hard to break the habit. Opinion differed as to whether the scope of fluctuations would grow smaller again, in case the trade reaction were to be prolonged. The question was admitted to be complicated by the relatively much larger volume of trading even on dull days. In the present market a 3,000,000-share day attracts only passing notice. It was recalled, however, that until 1928 there had been only ten days in the history of the Stock Exchange on which 3,000,000 shares had changed hands and that eight of those days had occurred since 1924.”

The Bull is Back, Just Ignore the Down Days:

(March 4, 1930) “According to one opinion the late unpleasantness in the stock market was merely a little hesitation in the major movement of the big bull market. A broker who explained this point of view to one of his customers yesterday met the fervent response: “Thank heaven, it was just a little hesitation.”

More, More Easy Money:

(March 6, 1930) “The Bank of England and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York will hold their weekly meetings of directors today and interest on both sides of the Atlantic is centered on the possibility of action by each institution on its bank rate. In London the open market appears already to have discounted a drop in the rate, but the position of

sterling militates against it. It is generally believed that the British Bank will not bring down its rate without assurances that the Reserve Bank of New York will also cut.”

More, More, More Easy Money

(March 7, 1930) “Such buying interest as development on the Stock Exchange yesterday was traced to the new money rates which, to Wall Street at least, seemed absurdly low in the light of conditions that prevailed at this time a year ago.”

What Crash?

(March 7, 1930) “Wall Street statisticians were surprised yesterday, in making comparisons with the averages of the same date last year, to learn that the recession had been so small. It was discovered, for instance, that fifty representative issues, as averaged by The New York Times, sold on March 6, 1929 at $240.46, whereas the same group yesterday closed with an average price of $226.98. Twenty-five industrials closed yesterday at $323.35 against $348.73 on the same day last year, while twenty-five rails closed at $130.62, as compared with $132.19 on the same date in 1929.”

Unemployment is Under Control:

(March 9, 1930) “Sentiment in Wall Street apparently was improved to some extent by President Hoover’s assurances that unemployment is being reduced, but there was little visible effect on the stock market.”

Those Damnable Shorts:

(March 11, 1930) “Greater emphasis is being placed than ever before on the influence of the “bear party” in the present market, and the general impression is that recent estimates as to the size of the sort interest have not been exaggerated. The managing partner of a leading commission house said yesterday that an “enormous bear party is locked up in the market.” He was contending that the makers for a strong “technical position.” Other brokers agree that the “bear party” is stubborn and that leaders of the faction refuse to cover their commitments. At the same time, they say, many of the new crop of shorts have seen fit to close out their contracts.”

What Would Happen if Foreigners Stopped Financing Us:

(March 12, 1930) “The compilation of American exports and imports of short-term capital during 1929, prepared by the Department of Commerce, gives the answer to that fascinating, if somewhat fanciful,

question: “How much gold would the United states lose if foreigners were suddenly to decide to withdraw all their holding of short-term funds in America?” The answer apparently is $1,603,434,000: that is, the difference between the $3,087,281,000 which is owed to foreigners on account of deposits by them in our banks, brokers’ loans, holding of bankers’ acceptances and other short-term investments, and the $1,483,847,000 which foreigners owe American banks and investors on account of similar holdings abroad.”

More, More, More, More Easy Money:

(March 14, 1930) “The action of open-market rates for credit, combined with the lowering of the British bank rate last week, had clearly pointed to such a move. They desire of the country’s banking authorities to do everything possible to stimulate business is conceded to be the motive behind the Federal Reserve’s aggressive easy-money policy.”

Something’s Wrong Here:

(March 22, 1930) Traders found the action of the stock market yesterday answerable to the description of the gentleman who mounted his horse and rode madly off in all directions...As to whether the present is a bull or bear market and whether it is of the creeping or roaring variety, depends large on what stocks are being held. A case could be made for any one of the four hypotheses.

Who’s Moving the Market?

(March 25, 1930) Wall Street was in a cheerful frame of mind as a result of numerous vague reports of improvement in business and industry, but the strength in stocks was generally ascribed to the more aggressive activity of professional interests committed to the advance.

The Market is the Only Healthy Part of the Economy:

(March 26, 1930) The boisterous conduct of the stock market lately has given rise to apprehension in some quarters that a new and unbridled wave of speculation is about to start. The specter of a voracious market which once more will gobble up all available credit, nullifying the efforts of the Federal Reserve Bank to provide business with easy money, is being paraded. Leading bankers profess to see no such alarming symptoms, however. They say a rampant bull market

can hardly be expected with business conditions as they now are. On the other hand, a buoyant market will have a valuable effect in lifting public morale and stimulating business optimism.

Stress Tests Not Yet Discovered, but Banks in Trouble:

(April 1, 1930) The call for statements of condition as of March 27, sent out yesterday to national banks by the Controller of the Currency and to state banks and trust companies by the State Superintendent of Banks, is likely to reveal some extensive changes since the end of last year.

High Volume Trading – 1930’s style:

(April 1, 1930) Despite the increase in trading, which would appear to indicate that the public is making commitments in stocks on a scale commensurate with that of last summer, brokers say the 5,000,000 share totals of the last few days are somewhat misleading. In the first place, professional trading is said to constitute a considerable part of the total. Another factor which should be taken into consideration, the brokers contend, is the increase in the number of shares listed on the Stock Exchange.

Earnings Look Worse, But Hope Springs Eternal:

(April 16, 1930) The appearance of several reports of quarterly earning in the last few days, with the expected appearance of many other in the net few weeks has had a decided effect on the market action of numerous issues, according to brokers. Weakness in certain stocks is believed to be in anticipation of poor quarterly reports, while other issues, which are showing strength, may make an even better showing than they did in the first quarter of 1929, the brokers say. On the whole, Wall Street has discounted the effect of smaller earning during the first quarter of this year, it is contended, while an increase in the earning of certain companies would be decidedly encouraging in view of the slower trade this year. The fact that several of the most important corporations have been able to show an increase in share earning in the face of these conditions has been reassuring to a large section of the financial community.

THE NEXT DAY, THE DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE HIT A LEVEL IT NEVER SAW AGAIN UNTIL JULY 1954

 

Ann Arbor, Michigan  (BoerseGo.de) - Der Konsumklimaindex der Universität Michigan stieg im September  auf  70,2  (August: 65,7). Erwartet wurde ein Anstieg auf 67,5.

weil ja bekanntlich aus vollen Rohren Lagerbestand aufgebaut wurde
__________________________
Washington (BoerseGo.de) - Die Lagerbestände im US-Großhandel fielen im Juli gegenüber dem Vormonat um  1,4 %. (Juni revidiert minus 2,1%, von minus 1,7%). Erwartet wurde ein Rückgang um 1,0%

It's home to Disneyland — "the happiest place on earth" — but deputies enforcing home evictions in Anaheim find mold, backed-up plumbing, marijuana crops, abandoned grandparents and the occasional suicide.

 

Orange County Sheriff's Deputy Ramona Figueroa says nothing surprises her any more but the job is getting worse, and she hopes the downward slide doesn't last too much longer.

One common task these days is serving eviction notices to people who have done nothing wrong — who rent properties that have fallen into foreclosure, or are repossessed to recover unpaid debts.

"They are shocked and surprised," Figueroa said as she went on her rounds. "And here I am giving them a five-day notice and they explain that just five days earlier the homeowner was at the home collecting rent."

With 17,000 homes going into foreclosure in this Southern California county in the first half of 2009, Figueroa has found her caseload in the last year getting heavier and harder to bear.

Homeowners forced into difficulty often take out their frustration on her when she comes knocking on the door to tell them it is time to leave.

 

"With the financial situation the way it is, people didn't get into buying a home with the intentions of losing it," said Figueroa. "They are disappointed, they are angry."

California is one of the places hardest hit by foreclosures as hundreds of thousands defaulted on the subprime loans that fueled a buying frenzy. But in the year since the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the number of prime borrowers who are overdue or in foreclosure has also skyrocketed to one in 10.

"When I first started enforcing court orders, I'd see one foreclosure every four or five years, and now I see a foreclosure every day," said Figueroa, a 25-year veteran of law enforcement.

'Everybody to Blame'

Another trend on the rise is evictions of single-family homes that are occupied by dozens of people. The harder the slump, the more people cram in together.

"You get in there and where you think you have two to three people, turns out you've got 25," said Figueroa. "I had that in the city of Brea where I was pulling people out of closets and rooms in a four-bedroom, two-bath home."

The deputies give residents five days' notice of eviction in person and then return to turn them out. Dan Mendoza, another Orange County deputy, says most people comply and leave the property without incident.

"Eviction is a business disagreement," said Mendoza as he drove to his next eviction. "No one is here to get hurt."

 

But the deputies witness heartwrenching pain. One day, Mendoza has to evict — due to a mortgage foreclosure — a 70-year-old woman named Aida, who only speaks Spanish and cries with worry over her grandchildren's belongings.

As she clutches her stomach, Mendoza calls the paramedics, just to make sure that Aida "is medically and physically OK."

Mendoza talks about finding senior citizens, small kids and pitbulls left behind in the homes. Figueroa says many homes are in appalling state, with mold eating through the roof, meat rotting in the refrigerator and animal feces and urine soiling the carpet. One older man was growing marijuana upstairs, another took his life when deputies arrived.

And yet, Figueroa says she loves her job. But in this last year, she has been troubled by the constant shifting of blame that came with the sharp rise in evictions. No one wants to be seen as responsible for this large scale breakdown of people's lives and dreams.

"I get the property people blaming the real estate people, the real estate people blaming the banks, the banks blaming the homeowners. It is just this vicious circle. "I think everybody is to blame for getting into this whole mess. It has kind of snowballed."

China is unlikely to lead the global economy out of recession because its own recovery lacks balance, driven mainly by fixed asset investment, Stephen Roach, Morgan Stanley's Asia chairman, said on Thursday.

China's urban fixed asset investment rose 33.0 percent in the first eight months of 2009, beating economists' expectations, after Beijing launched a massive two-year, 4 trillion yuan government stimulus spending plan and as banks embarked on a record lending boom in the first half of the year.

 

Investment backed by the central government increased 22.3 percent from January to August.

"China's investment recovery funded by bank lending is a pretty self-contained recovery, with minimum spillover to the rest of the world," said Morgan Stanley Asia Chairman Stephen Roach in an interview with Reuters late on Thursday at the World Economic Forum in the northern port city of Dalian.

His view echoed that of many Chinese economists and officials who say China's recovery will be unsustainable once the initial effect of pump-priming government stimulus measures starts to wear off and private consumption fails to take the baton.

 

The government has long pledged to base its economic growth on domestic consumption instead of exports, which have been the major driver of economic growth for the last decade.

"China is still hoping that its exports machine would start humming again, that is unlikely to be the case given the protracted sluggishness of external demand," said Roach.

He added that China faces the risk of asset bubbles, following lending splurges like those seen in the first half. "There is certainly a risk of a new round of asset bubbles," he said.

Chinese banks extended an unprecedented 7.37 trillion yuan ($1,079 billion) in loans in the first six months of the year, heeding the government's call to support economic growth.

The breakneck lending has triggered concerns that bubbles in the property and stock market may be forming.

Separately, Roach said China will not see an internationalization of its currency, the yuan, until it deepens its capital markets and financial institutions and makes its currency convertible. "I think that is a 25-30 years story," he said.

Deine Frage war schon berechtigt, ich hab das auch nicht gewusst was das heisst, von dem her kein Problem.
Die Börse seh ich mittlerweile als Ort wo ständig gelogen, betrogen und irgendwelche Geschichten erzählt werden.
Wenn Du auf jede Antwort mit einem Posting reagierst, provozierst Du ja diese Antworten nur.
Zieh einfach das positive heraus und probier das Beste draus zu machen.

More than one in four U.S. homes for sale on Sept. 1 had their prices cut at least once since landing on the market, up slightly from a month earlier, a study showed on Friday.

As of Sept. 1, a total of 26 percent of homes had their prices reduced, up from 25 percent on Aug.1, Trulia.com said in its monthly price report.

 

Driving the increase was the pending expiration of the government's $8,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers — part of the stimulus bill — and summer months which are the peak sales period, according to data compiled by Trulia.com.

The average discount was 10 percent from the original price, unchanged from August. On average, sellers dropped their price by $39,378, Trulia said.

"Housing data has shown us that sales are on the rise this summer and aggressive pricing is one of the factors driving these sales," said Pete Flint, Trulia co-founder and CEO, in an interview with Reuters. "The other factor is the $8,000 first time home buyers credit which we believe will continue to drive a high volume of sales for the next few months."

Home sellers looking to sell their property before the tax credit expires in November will continue to cut prices in hopes of attracting home buyers in search of discounts, he said.

 

Several cities have seen consistent month-over-month increases in the percentage of listings with price reductions from June 1 to Sept. 1. They include Kansas City, Missouri; Colorado Springs, Colorado; Omaha, Nebraska; Atlanta, Georgia; Indianapolis, Indiana; Memphis, Tennessee; Milwaukee, Wisconsin; and Raleigh, North Carolina, Trulia said.

Nationwide, in dollar terms, $28.5 billion has been reduced for all homes for sale on the market on September 1, up by more than $1.1 billion from June to September, the data showed.

Of the luxury homes, categorized by those costing $2 million or more, 26 percent have seen a reduction, up from 25 percent. The average decrease for a luxury home was 14 percent off the original asking price, the data showed.

For homes listed for less than $2 million, 25 percent have seen a reduction, consistent on a month-over-month basis. The deduction, however, was only 9 percent off the original asking price, the data showed.

Despite its nasty reputation, this September has not triggered the long-awaited stock market selloff.

 

Though the gains certainly wouldn't be characterized as robust, the market has more than held its own so far this month. Instead of a correction—generally defined as a 10 percent pullback—the six-month rally has largely continued.

So what happened?

Continued declines in the dollar have boosted commodity trading, particularly in gold and oil, which in turn has pushed correlated stocks higher.

Meanwhile, money managers who stayed cautious once equities started rallying are using any dips in the market as opportunities to make up for lost time.

Finally, the news cycle has remained fairly positive, with a smattering of high-profile companies such as Federal Express preannouncing that their earnings would beat expectations.

Is it time, then, to sound the all-clear?

 

Not quite.

"This is the most difficult environment we've ever been in. Individual clients are anxious," says Kathy Boyle, president of Chapin Hill Advisors in New York. "We see signs of speculation from some of our clients that are not connected to reality."

Indeed, the market faces any number of pitfalls ahead that could step in front of the rally. Four to consider:

1. Unexpected News From the Financial World

Yes, the news has been mostly good, or at worst better than nightmarish scenarios many had envisioned for the market.

But what if the so-called second derivative—a term analysts use to describe bad news getting better—doesn't change and there aren't true positive signs for investors to grab onto?

"News can trip it up," says John Buckingham, CIO at Al Frank Asset Management in Laguna Beach, Calif. "If the economic statistics don't continue to show modest improvement, then that could be a big hiccup for investors."

 

Unemployment, after all, remains high, and Friday's improving consumer confidence numbers were shrugged off by investors. Should negative sentiment take hold, it could drive the market down just as quickly as it went up.

"What happens if you get the runaway train?" adds Buckingham, who remains mostly bullish on the market but believes investors should be mindful to take profits periodically. "Our strategy is to plant when it's the time to plant and harvest when it's time to harvest. These days we've been doing more harvesting."

2. Unexpected News Outside the Financial World

Geopolitical hazards remain a strong headwind for the market, and should the situations in Iran or Afghanistan explode, or if there is a significant event elsewhere in the world, that could damage the market.

"Any big, major event overseas that shakes us up, that could be something" to unnerve the markets, says Boyle, a market bear who senses a level of nervousness from technicians that a significant occurrence is on the horizon.

Such an event could roil trade in the dollar, the sharp decline of which Boyle attributes to the market improvement.

The market also has relied on the strong demand in Treasury auctions, something else that could be disturbed by a global event. Foreign buyers have been relied on heavily to cover US debt offerings.

3. Technical Pressures

The light trading volume that has dominated the market is one indicator that the average investor hasn't returned yet and the current levels are being driven by traders in the pits as well as computerized and high-frequency buys.

That has raised worries that the market lacks fundamental underpinnings and could tumble again if certain technical levels don't hold up.

"You are already in the plus-50 percent return category from the March low without a pullback," says Rick Bensignor, chief market strategist at Execution LLC in New York. "The more you rally, the more you pull away from any significant support levels, the more risk you take on an outright long position."

 

To protect against too much exposure to the long side, Bensignor has been advising clients to use pair trades, which combine long and short positions.

For example, he's current long the SPDR Select Energy ETF and short the SPDR Select Financial because he believes energy will outperform financials. He has a similar trade in which he's pairing a long position in industrials against a short in consumer staples.

"By playing pair trades you take the market risk out of the picture and you have relative performance,"  Bensignor says. "If you do your analysis correctly you should make money regardless."

4. Value Traps

Advisors caution against so-called "value traps," in which investors perceive a sector or stock to be a bargain simply because its price is beaten down. That's not always the case, and the trap can become especially enticing in a market that is still 30 percent off its historic highs.

"Roughly three out of four times, industries that are identified as value traps have failed to outperform the market in the subsequent month," Bank of America-Merrill Lynch said in a research note.

The firm noted five sectors likely to be value traps: Beverages; energy equipment and services; food and staples retailing; food products; and hotels, restaurants and leisure.

 

Buckingham's firm specializes in value-based investing but says it can be a subtle distinction between determining value or a trap.

"You do need to be very cognizant of the underlying business and its potential for growth over the next few years," he says. "The expectations are your home runs will make up for your strikeouts, and you won't strike out as often as hit home runs."

As an example, he recently bought stock in MGM Mirage , which some considered a difficult pick because of some balance sheet issues. Yet the stock has gained 45 percent in September.

"Was it a value trap or a value play? Hindsight's 20-20 but as of right now it was a great value investment," he says. "The distinction between traps and opportunities is a fine line."

Die Pleite der Corus Bank (CORS) aus Chicago kostet den US-Einlagensicherungsfond FDIC 1,7 Milliarden Dollar. Die Pleite der kleineren Venture Bank (US-Staat Washington) schlägt mit knapp 300 Millionen beim FDIC zu Buche. Die dritte Bank ist winzig.

Damit dürften die Geldmittel des FDIC, die sich nach meinen Berechnungen letzte Woche noch auf 9,6 Mrd. beliefen, um weitere 2 Mrd. Dollar zusammenschrumpfen. Es bleiben nach heutigen Stand nur noch 7,6 Mrd. im Bankenrettungstopf des FDIC.

Meredith Whitney rechnet in ihrer vorgestern präsentierten Analyse zu den US-Banken mit weiteren 300 Bankpleiten. Wenn das Tempo wie bislang anhält (letztes WE 5 Pleiten, dieses WE 3), ist es nur noch eine Frage von einigen Wochen, bis der FDIC selber "ausgebailt" werden muss.

 

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Sept. 11, 2009, 11:41 p.m. EDT · Recommend · Post:
3 more bank failures bring 2009 total to 92
By John Letzing, MarketWatch


SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Regulators closed three more banks Friday, bringing the 2009 total to 92.

Closings announced by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.:

- Chicago-based Corus Bank (CORS 0.26, -0.07, -21.26%) which had $7 billion in assets and $7 billion in deposits as of June 30, the FDIC said. The bank's deposits have been assumed by MB Financial Bank, the FDIC added. MB Financial /quotes/comstock/15*!mbfi/quotes/nls/mbfi (MBFI 17.03, +0.52, +3.15%) will pay the FDIC a premium of 0.2% to assume all of the failed bank's deposits, and has agreed to purchase roughly $3 billion of its assets, "comprised mainly of cash and marketable securities," the regulator said. Reports of Corus Bank's failure had surfaced earlier Friday. The Corus failure will cost the federal deposit-insurance fund $1.7 billion.

- Venture Bank, Lacey, Wash., which as of July 28 had total assets of $970 million and total deposits of $903 million according to the FDIC. The FDIC said First-Citizens Bank & Trust Co., Raleigh, N.C., will assume all of the deposits of Venture Bank; will buy $874 million of the assets and entered into a share-loss transaction for $715 million of the assets. The FDIC said it will retain the remaining assets for later disposition. It estimated the cost to the deposit insurance fund at $298 million. Venture Bank, based in an Olympia suburb, is the third in Washington to fail this year and the first since Westsound Bank in Bremerton on May 8.

- Brickwell Community Bank, Woodbury, Minn., which had $72 million in assets and $63 million in deposits as of July 24, according to the FDIC. Its deposits have been assumed by Mitchell, S.D.-based CorTrust Bank. Brickwell, based in a Minneapolis-St. Paul suburb, is the third bank to fail in Minnesota this year and will cost the deposit-insurance fund $22 million.

Das Kapital

                           

Ein V für 0,13 Prozent

                                   

Für ein richtiges V fehlen noch US-Importe von rund 840 Mrd. $. Aber wer soll die finanzieren, wenn die Landesbanken keine Ramschkredite mehr kaufen? Wir hätten da eine Idee.

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Die Börsen spielen das Szenario eines stärker als erwarteten Konjunkturaufschwungs. Die Boyz in den Führungsetagen vieler Firmen scheinen das jedoch anders zu bewerten und nutzen die gestiegenen Kurse zu massenhaften Verkäufen ($31 worth of insider stock sales in August for every $1 of insider buys). Eigentlich unverständlich, wo doch angeblich das Super-V vor der Tür stehen soll ;-))

Insiders sell like there's no tomorrow

Corporate officers and directors were buying stock when the market hit bottom. What does it say that they're selling now?

"It's not a very complicated story," said Charles Biderman, who runs market research firm Trim Tabs. "Insiders know better than you and me. If prices are too high, they sell."

Biderman, who says there were $31 worth of insider stock sales in August for every $1 of insider buys, isn't the only one who has taken note. Ben Silverman, director of research at the InsiderScore.com web site that tracks trading action, said insiders are selling at their most aggressive clip since the summer of 2007.

Silverman said the "orgy of selling" is noteworthy because corporate insiders were aggressive buyers of the market's spring dip. The S&P 500 dropped as low as 666 in early March before the recent rally took it back above 1,000.

"That was a great call," Silverman said. "They were buying when prices were low, so it makes sense to look at what they're doing now that prices are higher."

money.cnn.com/2009/09/10/news/economy/...ostversion=2009091107

"Silverman said the "orgy of selling" is noteworthy because corporate insiders were aggressive buyers of the market's spring dip. The S&P 500 dropped as low as 666 in early March before the recent rally took it back above 1,000."

Soweit ich es deinen hier geposteten Fakten in #48996 entnehmen kann, hat der Einlagensicherungsfonds FDIC nur noch 7,6 Mrd. Dollar in seinem Rettungsfonds. Eine mögliche Folgerung ist doch, dass der Tipping Point bei der FDIC im Zuge der Bankenpleiten rasch erreicht ist und sie totally out of Cash laufen.
Was passiert dann? Steht die FDIC mit 'nem Hut in der Hand vor der Tür der Fed und bettelt um eine Hundert oder mehr Milliarden Dollar schwere Kreditlinie?