Der USA Bären-Thread

Die Fed will Schusswaffen verbieten, um die US-Banken zu retten.

Die Banken haben die Kunden bereits mit Kreditkarten entwaffnet (# 48923).

North American companies are flocking to sell shares this week, signaling to some investors the U.S. stock market may be close to sputtering after a long rally.

 

On Tuesday and Wednesday, at least 15 public companies announced plans to issue a total of some $7 billion of shares, including a $3 billion issue by Canadian gold producer Barrick Gold.

September is on pace to be the busiest month for secondary issuance since May, which to some portfolio managers is a sign companies are taking advantage of the market while they still can.

"Companies are feeling there are dark clouds on the horizon, so why not issue now?" said Matt McCormick, a portfolio manager at Bahl & Gaynor Investment Counsel in Cincinnati.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average index has risen more than 40 percent since lows hit in early March, but a flood secondary stock offerings have squelched rallies in places such as Hong Kong.

Alibaba and Lenovo Group both placed shares in Hong Kong, pulling the broader market lower on Wednesday.

Experts expect 14 new share issues, that will raise a total of HK$70 billion ($9 billion) to enter that market in September.

 

U.S. capital raising reached a crescendo in May 2009, the all-time busiest month in the United States for follow-on share issues, with a total of $45.3 billion, led by banks.

As financial institutions stopped issuing shares, other sectors failed to step into the breach and secondary offerings dropped to $11.3 billion in August.

This week's large follow-on offerings include Cemex, the world's No. 3 cement maker, which plans to sell $1.8 billion of shares to pay down some of the $15 billion in debt it recently restructured to avoid defaulting.

Barrick Gold said it would issue $3 billion in stock and buy back all of its fixed-price gold hedges and a portfolio of its floating hedges. It said it will issue 81.2 million shares for $36.95 apiece.

Rising volumes of secondary issuance come as initial public offerings globally also rise, with multibillion dollar IPOs in Brazil and China.

"Any time the stock market rallies with the vociferous move that this one has had, you're going to get people hitting the window (of opportunity)," said Jeffrey Saut, chief investment strategist, Raymond James Financial, in St. Petersburg, Florida.

Six IPOs are set to price in the United States the week of Sept. 21 in what will likely be the busiest since Dec. 2007.

Getting Out While You Can

In another sign investors may be questioning how long the market's rally will last, company insiders have continued to sell shares at a torrid pace in recent weeks, in an effort to lock in profits before the markets fall.

"This is the most bearish period we've seen for insider sentiment since the second quarter of 2007," said Ben Silverman, director of research at InsiderScore.com.

Silverman said that, while the ratio of selling of shares to buying has fallen from August peaks, it remains high by historical standards.

Both insider sales and companies selling shares in the secondary market can be a bearish sign, said Walter Todd, a portfolio manager at Greenwood Capital Associates, but high levels of insider sales are particularly worrisome.

"Insiders have better information than you do and history would suggest that, when you get higher insider selling, it's not a great harbinger for the future," Todd added.

Home prices in the US could fall by another 25 percent because of high unemployment and another leg down will come for stocks, banking analyst Meredith Whitney told CNBC Thursday.

 

"No bank underwrote a loan with 10 percent unemployment on the horizon," Whitney said. "I think there is no doubt that home prices will go down dramatically from here, it's just a question of when."

Local governments and states are chronically under-funded and "most states are under water," adding to the problem of low private consumption, she said.

 

"If you look at the drivers for unemployment I don't see that reversing very soon," Whitney said.

If consumers were to decide to spend, "that would be a game-changer," but it would be an unnatural thing to do in a recession, she said.

"A lot of themes are constant, which is the US consumer and the small business doesn't have any credit, credit is still contracting," Whitney said.

Consumer debt and consumer credit have dropped according to the latest figures which also show that people have been spending more from their debit cards than from their credit cards.

"Obviously that doesn't bode well for spending," Whitney said.

• Click Here for the Interview

  She said another leg down was coming for stocks but that Goldman Sachs still has "gas in the tank" and she kept her 'buy' on its stock.

  "Goldman is taking a lot of the place that Lehman left," she said.

  But banks are not going to see their earnings rise too much from now on, she warned.

  "Banks are taking advantage of what the government is doing by artificially inflating asset prices so they can ride a steep yield curve and they're going to have a third quarter that reflects that," Whitney said.

  Their shares are unlikely to be uplifted by these results as it happened in mid-July, because then they were under-valued, she added.

The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits fell last week to 550,000, according to a government report on Thursday that also showed the number of those collecting long-term aid tumbled.

 

Analysts polled by Reuters had expected initial claims to drop to 560,000, after reaching 576,000 the prior week, which had previously been reported as 570,000.

Continued claims fell to 6.088 million in the week ended Aug. 29, the latest for which the data is available, from 6.247 million the prior week. That was the lowest level since the week ended April 4. The U.S. trade deficit widened the most in more than 10 years in July as imports grew a record 4.7 percent on resurgent U.S. demand for foreign cars, consumer goods and oil, a government report showed on Thursday.

Meanwhile, the trade gap expanded 16.3 percent in July to $32.0 billion, the biggest month-to-month increase since February 1999.

Wall Street analyst had expected the trade deficit to be little changed from June, which the Commerce Department revised to $27.5 billion from its original estimate of $27.0 billion

U.S. imports grew for the second consecutive month to $159.6 billion, led by a $2.4 billion increase in imports of cars and car parts and a $1.7 billion increase in consumer goods such as medical drugs, toys, clothing and televisions.

Auto and auto parts imports were the highest since December and may have reflected dealers building up inventory in anticipation of Congress' "cash for clunkers" program to encourage motorists to exchange old gas guzzlers for new more fuel-efficient vehicles.

A sixth consecutive monthly rise in the average price of imported oil to $62.48 per barrel also helped widen the trade gap. Overall imports of petroleum products were the highest since December.

 

The trade deficit with China grew 10.8 percent in July, as imports from the Asian manufacturing giant hit their highest level since November.

The July trade gap remained far below the record of $64.9 billion set in July 2008, just before the global financial crisis took a huge bite out of international trade.

U.S. exports also increased for the second consecutive month in July to $127.6 billion, a rise of 2.2 percent from June.

Goods exports had their best showing since December, led by increases for autos and auto parts and capital goods. U.S. exports to Mexico were the highest since November 2008, although shipments to the European Union were the lowest since July 2006.

"fkuebler, wo hast Du bloß dieses Drehbuch her?
also klar,  rauf und runter.     o.k.      oder runter und rauf.     
hilft das denn wirklich?  jetzt mal rein psychologisch gesehen.."

Ich nehme an, die Frage ist zumindest halb ernst gemeint. Dann will ich sie gerne auch so beantworten:

Woher ich das "Drehbuch" habe?

Nun ja, das Wort war zwar leicht ironisch gemeint, aber in der Tat bemühe ich mich um ein zumindest vages Gefühl für Ursache-Wirkungs-Zusammenhänge. Was man dabei für plausibel hält, ist schlussendlich eine sehr subjektive Gemengelage. Zur Verdeutlichung eine Gegenfrage: woraus schliesst man als Individuum, dass die Erde eine Kugel ist? Wenn man über die Frage nachdenkt, dann kann man ziemlich ins Grübeln kommen...

Aber für einen Fundamentalisten kann es bei aller zugegebenen Schwierigkeit, vielleicht sogar Unmöglichkeit, auf einigermassen sicheres Terrain zu kommen, eben kein "scheissegal" geben. Und auch keine unangemessene Delegation der eigenen Verantwortung an technische Systeme.

Konkret folge ich noch am ehesten den Strukturmechanismen "Japan 1990s", die in dem mehrfach erwähnten Buch von Koo unter dem Leitmotiv "Bilanzrezession" mMn bisher am qualifiziertesten analysiert werden. Natürlich kommt es nicht genau so. Aber auch wenn ich eine tägliche Autofahrt unternehme, dann kommt es nicht genau so wie am Vortag erlebt. Aber zumindest beim Autofahren funktionieren die instinktiv zur Vorhersage aus der Erfahrung abgeleiteten Mechanismen in der Regel ganz brauchbar.

Hilft es psychologisch, eine Hintergrundeinschätzung zu haben? Ja, das hilft sogar sehr. Lebewesen ab einer gewissen Stufe brauchen generell das subjektive Gefühl einer Vorhersehbarkeit, wie man an Tierexperimenten gezeigt hat: einem subjektiv empfundenen Zufall ausgeliefert zu sein, kann auf Dauer sogar elementare Lebensfunktionen gefährden.

Wenn ich doch wieder leichte Ironie hervorblitzen lassen, dann würde ich insofern ganz neutral sogar sagen: wenn man mit einer Fundamentalanalyse nicht zurecht kommt, dann ist ein HS immer noch besser als gar nichts... Oder wenn man mit einem HS nicht zurecht kommt, dann ist eine Fundamentalanalyse immer noch besser als gar nichts... ;-)

Oder wenn man mit beiden nicht zurechtkommt, dann ist ein Guru immer noch besser als gar nichts ;-))

den Daumen senkt (# 48930, siehe auch unten), dann heißt das, die BigBoyz wollen jetzt erst mal eine Korrektur sehen. Umgekehrt war es Anfang Juli, als dieselbe Tante eine Hausse verhieß (die dann auch prompt kam).

 

Rev Shark, street.com:

...The dilemma for investors who are trying to be flexible and open-minded is that it is tough to completely embrace the positive market action when there is so much skepticism swirling about. It is even tougher when the chart action is so confounding. We have consistently gone straight back up to new highs after some technical damage was done. That just isn't textbook action, and it has made for tough trading if you are using technical analysis as a guide.

So we have a market being bolstered by an artificial infusion of cash, a high level of skepticism and a persistent uptrend. We'd be foolish not to have some doubts about how much more this market can run, but until there is a shift in the character of the action, the skepticism needs to say on the back burner.

Meredith Whitney is on CNBC this morning and sounding quite bearish overall. She says October will be a month of reckoning, that home prices have another leg down and that bank fundamentals have not improved. She helped to trigger the big run that started in July with bullish comments about Goldman Sachs (GS), so it will be interesting to see if the market reacts to her comments today.

Marc Faber ist bullish auf Stocks und sieht noch ein beträchtliches Steigerungspotenzial bei den Indizes. Der schwache Dollar, der seiner Meinung nach auch gegenüber den Rohstoffen implodieren wird, sowie die hohe Liquidität mache Aktien zu einer zu bevorzugenden Anlageklasse. Faber sieht die Entwicklung an den Börsen jedoch abgekoppelt von makroökonomischen Gegebenheiten.
www.cash.ch/news/boersenticker/...aechtlich_steigen-828930-450

Aufgrund der zahlreichen Green Shoots sieht Goldman voraus, dass die Fed Funds Rate auf Jahre im "Keller" bleiben wird.

Goldman Says Deleveraging May Keep Fed Rate Low for ‘Years’

The Federal Reserve may keep interest rates low for “many years” to help U.S. consumers and companies as they pare back debt, according to economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=axL0qC8rIx_M

mit ernsthaften, konstruktiven Vorschlägen komme, werde angehört, lockte er die
Konservativen. "Meine Tür ist immer offen", sagte er. Keineswegs strebe er eine
staatliche Gesundheitsversorgung an, die die privaten Kassen verdrängen würde.
OBAMA WILL STAATLICHE VERSICHERUNGSANGEBOTE
   "Ich weiß, dass viele in diesem Land sehr skeptisch sind, wenn die Regierung
sich um sie kümmern will", sagte Obama. Auch er denke, "dass die Regierung nicht
alle Probleme lösen sollte". Dies widerspreche dem Freiheitsideal der
Gründungsväter. Aber es gebe auch Gefahren, wenn der Staat sich zu wenig um die
Probleme der Menschen kümmere. Deshalb brauche es auch staatliche
Versicherungsangebote.
   Obama ist sich bewusst, dass er seinen Plan, den es so gar nicht gibt, eher
grundlegende Gedanken, nur umsetzen kann, wenn er auf die Mehrheiten seiner
Partei im Kongress setzt - die aber im Senat äußerst knapp scheinen. Dann aber
muss er den von ihm so oft beschworenen überparteilichen Ansatz für die Reform
aufgeben. Oder aber er stößt die starke Parteilinke vor den Kopf und verzichtet
weitgehend auf ein staatliches Versicherungssystem.
   Obama droht bereits nach acht Monaten seiner Präsidentschaft ein herber und
folgenreicher Dämpfer: Schafft er es nicht, eine Gesundheitsreform
durchzusetzen, ist sein erklärtermaßen wichtigstes innenpolitisches Projekt
gescheitert. Damit wäre seine Glaubwürdigkeit angeschlagen, sein Versprechen auf
"Wandel" früh infrage gestellt. Aber mit seiner 43-minütigen, leidenschaftlichen
Rede vor dem Kongress hat er erst einmal seinen "Einsatz verdoppelt", wie das
"Wall Street Journal" mit einem Begriff aus dem Pokerspiel
kommentierte./tr/DP/js
   --- Von Laszlo Trankovits, dpa ---
NNNN


2009-09-10 15:48:53
2N|ECO FIS GOV|USA||

ist mitnichten bei GS, sie war bei Oppenheimer und hat jetzt ihre eigene Bude. Und ich persönlich halte sie für ziemlich gut.

in #48932 steht ja eben, dass Whitney im Juli ein bullishes Statement zu Goldman abgegeben hatte, welches mithalf, den Banken-Sektor insgesamt mitanzuschieben.

Das komplette CNBC-Interview mit M. Whitney gibt's übrigens hier

pragcap.com/meredith-whitney-day-of-reckoning-is-coming

4. All the growth we are seeing globally this year is due to fiscal stimulus; not just here in Canada and the U.S., but also in Korea, China, the U.K., and Continental Europe too. For 2010, the government’s share of global growth, by our estimates, will be 80%. In other words, there are still very few signs that organic private sector activity is stirring. For a Keynesian, government stimulus is necessary, but the question for an investor is the multiple one attaches to a global economy that is still relying on a defibrillator. The problem is that governments do not create income or wealth, and today’s stimulus is really a future tax liability. Curiously, that future tax liability is likely going to pose a roadblock for the return to a “normalized” $80 operating EPS estimate that strategists are now starting to pen in for 2011.

5. While Mr. Market may be pricing in a fine future for the U.S., but when the 3-month Treasury-bill yield is 13bps north of zero, which is completely abnormal, you know that there are still substantial fundamental imbalances that need to be worked through.

David Rosenberg / Gluskin Sheff

Die Tragweite der Aussage von David Rosenberg, dass “today’s stimulus is really a future tax liability” wird recht gut ersichtlich, wenn man z.B. mal kurz einen Blick auf die explodierenden Schuldenberge der EU-Staaten wirft. Ein weiterer tiefer Griff des Staates in die Taschen seiner Bürger ist vorprogrammiert.

EU erstickt an Schulden

Wie die "Financial Times Deutschland" unter Berufung auf die Daten der EU-Kommission meldet, werden die meisten europäischen Staaten bis 2020 einen Schuldenstand anhäufen werden, der doppelt bis dreimal so hoch ist wie es die Maastricht-Kriterien erlauben. Den Berechnungen zufolge werden die krisenbedingten Konjunkturpakete, Kapitalspritzen und Bankengarantien die Verschuldung in Europas großen Volkswirtschaften in den kommenden Jahren regelrecht explodieren lassen.

Den unveröffentlichten Zahlen zufolge könnte Irland dann Schulden im Umfang von etwa 200 Prozent der Wirtschaftsleistung haben, in Großbritannien wird mit rund 180 Prozent gerechnet. 2007 lag der irische Wert noch bei 25 Prozent und der britische bei 44,2 Prozent. Beide Länder haben ihren Bankensektor in der Krise mit mehr Staatsmilliarden als andere Länder gestützt.

Im EU-Durchschnitt rechnen die Experten der Kommission für 2020 mit einem Schuldenstand von etwa 125 Prozent der Wirtschaftsleistung. Frankreich und Italien dürften in etwa diese Werte aufweisen. Deutschland kommt auf etwas weniger als 100 Prozent. Zum Vergleich: Die Bundesrepublik hatte 2007 noch einen Schuldenstand von 65,1 Prozent, für 2009 rechnet Brüssel mit 73,4 Prozent. Der EU-Stabilitätspakt setzt den Regierungen eigentlich eine Obergrenze von 60 Prozent.

www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/...tickt-an-Schulden-article498318.html

Shares of US health insurers climbed Thursday as analysts said President Barack Obama's highly anticipated speech urging Congress to act on health reform revealed no "game changers."

Analysts also deemed the possibility of a public plan that would seriously undermine the companies as unlikely following the speech.

• Check 30 Key Health Care Stocks

  Obama called for quick action on a broad healthcare overhaul in his prime-time address on Wednesday night. But the speech contained nothing unexpected, said Steve Shubitz, an analyst with Edward Jones.

  "There wasn't anything said that is drastically changing the outlook as to what might come out of Congress," Shubitz said.

  The prospect of dramatic overhaul of the healthcare system has pressured health insurer shares throughout the year.

  Shares of UnitedHealth Group and WellPoint, the two largest health insurers, were little changed in morning trading. Other insurers rose a bit, with Aetna up about 1 percent and Cigna rising more than 3 percent.

  Obama "demonized insurers several times but didn't add anything new to the debate," Wells Fargo analyst Matt Perry said in a research note. "Overall we view the speech as neutral to insurers."

  Shubitz said Obama's plan resembled the framework proposed earlier this week by Senator Max Baucus, head of the powerful finance committee, indicating that Baucus' formal bill would be crucial for investors to watch.

  "It's very clear that this is the route they're going to use to get something out there," Shubitz said.

• After Speech, Obama Presses Hard For Health Care Reform
• Health Care Experts React To Obama Speech

  Obama made his case for a public health plan that he said would lead to more competition in the private market. The controversial public plan idea has prompted fear from investors that companies would be unable to compete against it and eventually beget a government takeover of healthcare.

  Obama said he had "no interest in putting insurance companies out of business" and would remain open to other ideas to ensure Americans have an option to secure affordable coverage.

   

  Ana Gupte, a Sanford Bernstein analyst, said in a research note she was "even more confident after the Obama speech that the legislative outcomes will be moderate with no threat of a Medicare-like public plan." Analysts noted that Obama remained open to other ideas aside from the plan, such as nonprofit cooperatives that are seen as less threatening to the industry.

• A History of Government Spending

  "While we understand the negotiating logic of keeping it on the table for now, we still don't see any higher/better odds that a full fledged public plan can ever make it into a final piece of legislation," JP Morgan analyst John Rex said in a research note.

mMn sind die Unterschiede zwischen jener Superexportnation und der Superimportnation schlicht und einfach viel zu groß, um eine einfache Analogie in Krisenverlauf erwarten zu können.

Die Weltbank USA wird ihren global engagierten Finanzsektor, ihr Herzstück, aber auch andere Wirtschaftsbereiche nicht in einer Deflation kaputt gehen lassen. Die Zielvorgabe heißt kontrollierte Abwertung ohne vollen Lohnausgleich.

"mMn sind die Unterschiede zwischen jener Superexportnation und der Superimportnation schlicht und einfach viel zu groß, um eine einfache Analogie in Krisenverlauf erwarten zu können."

Es geht mir auch nicht um "Japan" und "USA", sondern um Mechanismen in Bubble und Post-Bubble.

Aber nein, "einfache Analogien" können wir sicher nicht erwarten.

Das macht es ja so schwierig... ;-)

... und ist der Grund, warum schätzungsweise 90..95% der Börsenteilnehmer auf längere Sicht verlieren. Das "Schöne" ist nur, dass man vorher nicht unbedingt wissen muss, wer das ist... ;-))

An auction of 30-year Treasury bonds exceeded already-lofty expectations, with the long bond yielding 4.238 percent.

 

Traders had been expected a crowded auction with foreign demand likely to be high. The bid-to-cover ratio, a measure of demand against supply, was a healthy 2.92.

The euro hit a session high against the dollar, but the stock market showed little reaction to the $12 billion auction, staying positive at tepid levels.

Treasury prices had climbed earlier as the market headed into the last of three note auctions this week, encouraged by solid demand at two earlier auctions and stocks' pullback from session highs.

In when-issued trading, the 30-year bonds had been yielding 4.268 percent. The yield dropped further after the auction to 4.23 percent.

Wednesday's 10-year Treasury note auction drew strong interest after some price cutting at the longer end of the maturity range.

U.S. benchmark 10-year Treasury notes were up, their yields easing to 3.37 percent from 3.48 percent late Wednesday.

 

"Price action shows bonds are holding up well, despite the supply," said Kim Rupert, managing director of global fixed-income analysis at Action Economics in San Francisco.

"After two relatively successful auctions I don't think anybody is concerned about today's offering," Rupert said. "It is relatively small, and a reopening, so the market is just thinking it gets done OK and we move on."

John Spinello, chief fixed-income technical strategist at Jefferies & Co in New York, said the market benefited from "a technical reaction to holding 3.515 percent support" on the 10-year yield.

Traders said data on the July trade deficit and the latest weekly count of new jobless claims did not impede bond prices' upward climb.

The U.S. trade deficit widened the most in more than 10 years in July as rebounding consumer demand led to a record increase in imports, a government report showed on Thursday.

 

Meanwhile, the Labor Department reported the number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits fell to 550,000 from a revised 576,000 the week earlier.

"The data on jobless claims and the July trade deficit suggests that the hoped-for strong recovery is unlikely to develop, even though the third-quarter GDP report is likely to show positive growth," said Steven Ricchiuto, chief economist at Mizuho Securities USA.

While the drop in initial jobless claims and continuing claims can be interpreted as signs of a gradually healing labor market, Ricchiuto said, "the level of both series remain in recession territory."

Two-year notes rose, their yields easing to 0.88 percent from 0.93 percent on Wednesday.

Five-year notes climbed, their yields easing to 2.28 percent from 2.37 percent.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said Thursday the economy has regained enough strength to allow a shift in the government's strategy from rescue to preparing for future growth.

Appearing before the Congressional Oversight Panel for the $700-billion Troubled Asset Relief Program, Geithner said the economy was in far better shape now than a year ago when it was "on the verge of collapse," though it still had problems.

That meant it was time to consider ending some programs for bolstering the financial sector but to keep others, such as taxpayer-subsidized public-private partnerships for buying toxic assets, in place until a recovery is firmly established.

• Watch Geithner Testimony Live

  "As we enter this new phase, we must begin winding down some of the extraordinary support we put in place for the financial system," Geithner said.

  He said banks that received capital injections in the form of taxpayer-provided funds have repaid more than $70 billion, reducing the government's total investment to $180 billion.

  "We now estimate that banks will repay another $50 billion over the next 12 to 18 months," he added.

  Another senior Treasury official told reporters earlier that Treasury will allow its money market mutual fund guarantee program to expire on Sept. 18.

  The backstop program was created a year ago to prevent panic withdrawals of $3.4 trillion in savings after a key fund "broke the buck" when its net asset value per share fell below $1.

• Geither Town Hall Tonight on CNBC...Click Here to Submit Questions

  The program took in $1.2 billion in fees from funds, but has not had any payouts.

  Geithner boasted that the economy now was "back from the brink" of a free fall that it was in when the Obama administration took office in January, though he cautioned recovery will be gradual at best.

  Still, he cited several signs of progress, including the fact that the government no longer feels it needs a contingency in the budget for another $750 billion in stabilization funds.

  "Today, we believe that money is unlikely to be necessary and we have removed it from budget provisions, lowering this year's deficit," Geithner said.

  Treasury does intend to press ahead with so-called public-private investment funds to buy toxic assets.

  The senior Treasury official predicted that the first purchases should occur by early October.

  The official said there was a "great deal of interest" in purchasing toxic assets among investors and money managers running the funds, but the appetite among banks to sell their toxic assets has been less than anticipated.

   

  "We thought it would be necessary for banks to sell some of these assets in order to attract private capital.

  It turned out that they were able to raise the capital without selling the assets," the official said.

  Geithner said that by providing support for U.S. automakers, the government avoided substantial job losses and that a specially assembled Auto Task Force had avoided intervening in day-to-day decisions by management of General Motors Corp and Chrysler Corp.

  "Such intervention could seriously undermine the companies' long-term viability and, consequently, their ability to repay the taxpayer for its investment," Geithner said.

  He cited a litany of problems still facing the economy, including "unacceptably high" unemployment, a shaky mortgage market outside those covered by mortgage finance sources Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, strained financing for commercial real estate enterprises and tight credit for small business.

  Given those conditions, "it is realistic to assume recovery will be gradual, with more than the usual ups and downs," Geithner warned.

mal ein paar Vergleiche. "Aber alles im Griff", stöhnt die Maus in den Krallen der Katze:
www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/3421

www.economic-policy.org/...d=183&iid=51&vid=22&id=
der Artikel ist bei economic -policy freigegeben als pdf und wie ein oberflächliches Lesen ergibt ,auf jeden Fall interessant.Es handelt sich um einen Artikel Krugmans aus dem Jahr 2007,der hier von Kevin Rourke und GianCarlo Corsetti neu diskutiert  und infrage gestellt wird.
Ich bringe mal das Resumee von Krugman:The various rationales and rationalizations for the US current account
deficit that have been advanced in recent years do not seem to help us avoid the conclusion
that investors are not taking the need for future dollar decline into account.
So it seems likely that there will be a Wile E. Coyote moment when investors
realize that the dollar’s value doesn’t make sense, and that value plunges.
The case for believing that a dollar plunge will do great harm is much less secure.
In the medium run, the economy can trade off lower domestic demand, mainly the result
of a fall in real housing prices, for higher net exports, the result of dollar depreciation.
Any economic contraction in the short run will be the result of differences in adjustment
speeds, with the fall in domestic demand outpacing the rise in net exports.
The United States in 2007 isn’t Argentina in 2001: although there is a very good
case that the dollar will decline sharply, nothing in the data points to an Argentinestyle
economic implosion when that happens. Still, this probably won’t be fun.

wer Interesse hat muss sich halt durch die etwas schwierigen Texte und Zahlen durchkämpfen

   * World industrial production continues to track closely the 1930s fall, with no clear signs of ‘green shoots’.
   * World stock markets have rebounded a bit since March, and world trade has stabilised, but these are still following paths far below the ones they followed in the Great Depression.
   * There are new charts for individual nations’ industrial output. The big-4 EU nations divide north-south; today’s German and British industrial output are closely tracking their rate of fall in the 1930s, while Italy and France are doing much worse.
   * The North Americans (US & Canada) continue to see their industrial output fall approximately in line with what happened in the 1929 crisis, with no clear signs of a turn around.
   * Japan’s industrial output in February was 25 percentage points lower than at the equivalent stage in the Great Depression. There was however a sharp rebound in March.

The parallels between the Great Depression of the 1930s and our current Great Recession have been widely remarked upon. Paul Krugman has compared the fall in US industrial production from its mid-1929 and late-2007 peaks, showing that it has been milder this time. On this basis he refers to the current situation, with characteristic black humour, as only “half a Great Depression.” The “Four Bad Bears” graph comparing the Dow in 1929-30 and S&P 500 in 2008-9 has similarly had wide circulation (Short 2009). It shows the US stock market since late 2007 falling just about as fast as in 1929-30.

Comparing the Great Depression to now for the world, not just the US

This and most other commentary contrasting the two episodes compares America then and now. This, however, is a misleading picture. The Great Depression was a global phenomenon. Even if it originated, in some sense, in the US, it was transmitted internationally by trade flows, capital flows and commodity prices. That said, different countries were affected differently. The US is not representative of their experiences.

Our Great Recession is every bit as global, earlier hopes for decoupling in Asia and Europe notwithstanding. Increasingly there is awareness that events have taken an even uglier turn outside the US, with even larger falls in manufacturing production, exports and equity prices.
In fact, when we look globally, as in Figure 1, the decline in industrial production in the last nine months has been at least as severe as in the nine months following the 1929 peak. (All graphs in this column track behaviour after the peaks in world industrial production, which occurred in June 1929 and April 2008.)  Here, then, is a first illustration of how the global picture provides a very different and, indeed, more disturbing perspective than the US case considered by Krugman, which as noted earlier shows a smaller decline in manufacturing production now than then. ...

Similarly, while the fall in US stock market has tracked 1929, global stock markets are falling even faster now than in the Great Depression .Again this is contrary to the impression left by those who, basing their comparison on the US market alone, suggest that the current crash is no more serious than that of 1929-30.

Another area where we are “surpassing” our forbearers is in destroying trade. World trade is falling much faster now than in 1929-30 (Figure 3). This is highly alarming given the prominence attached in the historical literature to trade destruction as a factor compounding the Great Depression.

To sum up, globally we are tracking or doing even worse than the Great Depression, whether the metric is industrial production, exports or equity valuations. Focusing on the US causes one to minimise this alarming fact. The “Great Recession” label may turn out to be too optimistic. This is a Depression-sized event.

That said, we are only one year into the current crisis, whereas after 1929 the world economy continued to shrink for three successive years. What matters now is that policy makers arrest the decline. We therefore turn to the policy response.

Figure 4 shows a GDP-weighted average of central bank discount rates for 7 countries. As can be seen, in both crises there was a lag of five or six months before discount rates responded to the passing of the peak, although in the present crisis rates have been cut more rapidly and from a lower level. There is more at work here than simply the difference between George Harrison and Ben Bernanke. The central bank response has differed globally.
Figure 5 shows money supply for a GDP-weighted average of 19 countries accounting for more than half of world GDP in 2004. Clearly, monetary expansion was more rapid in the run-up to the 2008 crisis than during 1925-29, which is a reminder that the stage-setting events were not the same in the two cases. Moreover, the global money supply continued to grow rapidly in 2008, unlike in 1929 when it levelled off and then underwent a catastrophic decline.
Figure 6 is the analogous picture for fiscal policy, in this case for 24 countries. The interwar measure is the fiscal surplus as a percentage of GDP. The current data include the IMF’s World Economic Outlook Update forecasts for 2009 and 2010. As can be seen, fiscal deficits expanded after 1929 but only modestly. Clearly, willingness to run deficits today is considerably greater.

To summarise: the world is currently undergoing an economic shock every bit as big as the Great Depression shock of 1929-30. Looking just at the US leads one to overlook how alarming the current situation is even in comparison with 1929-30.

The good news, of course, is that the policy response is very different. The question now is whether that policy response will work. For the answer, stay tuned for our next column.

Meredith noch mal auf deutsch verwässert von Börsego
New York (BoerseGo.de) - Die bekannte Bankanalystin Meredith Whitney geht zur Bankenkrise in den USA davon aus, dass im Rahmen der anhaltenden Pleitewelle insgesamt mehr als 300 Kreditinstitute geschlossen werden. Zwar habe sich die Panik zur Finanzkrise mittlerweile gelegt, doch seien Experten übereifrig optimistisch in ihren Schätzungen zu den Bankgewinnen für die nächsten Jahre. Für viele Banken sei eine Beruhigung eingetreten, aber den tatsächlichen Impuls für die Wirtschaft gebe es durch die Konsumausgaben. Sie sehe angesichts der höchsten Arbeitslosigkeit seit Anfang der 80er-Jahre und des Rekords an Hypothekenkreditausfällen keine Möglichkeit, dass es in dieser Hinsicht in der nächsten Zeit eine Rückkehr zu alten Zeiten geben wird, führte Whitney im Rahmen eines Interviews gegenüber Bloomberg-TV weiter aus.....

....Der von Bloomberg erhobene Konsens unter Analysten sieht zur Bankbranche für das laufende Jahr einen Gewinnanstieg um mehr als 900 Prozent und für 2010 eine weitere Erholung um 57 Prozent vor. (LOL)
www.boerse-go.de/nachricht/...Finanzkrise-ueber-300-US-Banken-
zusammenbrechen,a1871173,b147.html

Detaillierter hier:
On housing, she believes that the drop in  prices is not over and said that housing prices could fall another 25%. She sees a  price drop is inevitable because of a supply jam as well as rising unemployment and exotic mortgage resets.  She thinks Florida has a massive leg down coming in another wave.

She also thinks spending is going to be lower.  She said originally projected that $2.7 trillion in credit being pulled out of the system by the end of 2010.  So far she noted that we are $1.25 trillion of the way there, but consumers are now de-leveraging and are trying to not carry credit card debt.

The banks are taking advantage of inflating assets and riding a steep yield curve that will bring a similar Q3 earnings to Q2 earnings.  But the banks are now getting overvalued and she does not think a similar stock move is coming like we saw after the Q2 post-earnings run-ups.

And as far as the overall stock market and financial stocks, she’s bearish there too and is looking for another leg down in the stock market.  She thinks there will be both positive and negative trading opportunities around the market dynamics.  Her only single BUY is Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) which she said “still has a lot of gas in its tank.”247wallst.com/2009/09/10/...tney-gets-more-cautious-mostly-gs/

und einige wörtliche Zitate aus dem Video von CNBC:
"October will be a big month"
"I think there is no doubt that home prices will go down dramatically from here, it's just a question of when."

"when the government stops buying assets who steps in?" "The UK government is 20% of the gilt market."

She doesn't support the government continuing to support the market "because you only have so much opportunity. The dollar is at an all time low. Things are catching up."

"The Treasury does mental voodoo on you."

"Core earnings of these banks is not what you expect. Portfolios are contracting."

On CDO's--"the guy who sells first gets the best price. most banks assume peak to trough is right where they are now, not if there's another leg down."

Local governments and states are chronically under-funded and "most states are under water," adding to the problem of low private consumption, she said.

She expects some reckoning to happen in the fourth quarter, or October, when some of the exit strategies are scheduled.
She said another leg down was coming for stocks but that Goldman Sachs  still has "gas in the tank" and she kept her 'buy' on its stock.

www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/...enkoenige-im-dax-sind;2453783

Ja, wer möchte das nicht wissen, wo die Dividendenkönige lauern, wo doch die jetzt noch so günstig sind. Daxi wird ja im Frühjahr bei 8000 vermutet und da kann man sich jetzt noch die 0,2% ige Dividende einiger Unternehmen sichern, dann im Frühjahr 0,1, aber was solls.

#0000ff">Den Bull Baer Index der WGZ Bank habe ich leider in den falschen Thread gesetzt:
http://www.ariva.de/forum/...aer-Index-387115?pnr=6466647#jump6466647

Chinese industrial output and investment accelerated in August, suggesting the economic recovery is on a solid course, but Beijing is still unlikely to tap on the policy brakes too hard for fear of derailing it.

 

Industrial output grew at a 12-month high of 12.3 percent in August from a year earlier, jumping from 10.8 percent in July and beating expectations of a 12 percent rise, data issued by the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Friday.

Annual urban fixed-asset investment growth also picked up, reaching 33 percent for the first eight months, notching up from 32.9 percent in January to July and beating forecasts of 32.5 percent.

"The data shows that the Chinese economy continues to strengthen overall," said Rob Subbaraman, chief Asia economist with Nomura in Hong Kong.

"There's a pretty good configuration of data: on the activity side there is further strengthening and on the inflation side there is still negative inflation, so I don't think there's a real urgency to tighten policy aggressively."

Despite the signs of strength, analysts expect policymakers to proceed cautiously to avoid pulling on the reins of monetary and fiscal policy too quickly, after a steady flow of assurances from Beijing that it would not exit from stimulus too soon.

 

Premier Wen Jiabao drove that point home on Thursday, saying the government would unswervingly apply its policy mix of massive government spending and loose money because the economic recovery remains fragile.

Zhang Xiaoqiang, vice chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, carried on that refrain on Friday, telling reporters at a meeting of the World Economic Forum that the recovery was not yet solid, even though GDP growth picked up to an annual 7.9 percent in the second quarter.

Figures for money supply and lending growth surprised on the upside, potentially providing comfort that the taps of credit will not be turned off too sharply.

Worries about a pullback in lending following a record burst in the first half contributed to stock market jitters in August, when Shanghai shares fell over 20 percent. The stock market was up 0.8 percent in mid-morning trade, compared with being up 0.4 percent before the data.

Banks extended 410.4 billion yuan in new local-currency loans in August, up from 355.9 billion in July and more than expected.

More From CNBC.comSee Video: Wall Street and WashingtonPrecious Metals Plays 5 Sectors That Profit From the Weak Dollar: StrategistsMore Asia Pacific NewsAnnual growth in the broad M2 measure of money supply picked up a touch to 28.5 percent in August from 28.4 percent in July, beating forecasts of 28.4 percent.

Deflationary pressures eased as food prices rose. Consumer prices fell only 1.2 percent in August from a year earlier compared with a decline of 1.8 percent in July, tempering the pace of deflation. 

"The overall trend of the economy is still stable, and the numbers for the fourth quarter will be better than a year ago," said Zhu Jianfang, chief macroeconomist at CITIC Securities in Beijing.

"There is no possibility they will raise interest rates in the fourth quarter. At least, we'll have to wait until the second quarter next year."

40 Millionen Menschen betroffen

US-Armut auf Rekordhoch

In den USA gab es im vorigen Jahr gemessen an der Gesamtbevölkerung so viele arme Menschen wie seit elf Jahren nicht mehr.

Die Zahl der Armen sei 2008 um 2,5 Millionen Menschen auf knapp 40 Millionen gestiegen, heißt es in dem Bericht des statistischen Bundesamtes in Washington.

http://www.n-tv.de/politik/US-Armut-auf-Rekordhoch-article499691.html

Gegen Finanzmarkt-"Komasaufen"

Spekulanten sollen zahlen

Die SPD will eine milliardenschwere globale Finanzmarktsteuer einführen, um Banken, Versicherungen und Investmentfonds an den Kosten der Weltwirtschaftskrise zu beteiligen und die Spekulation einzudämmen.

http://www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/...ten-sollen-zahlen-article499727.html