wird es auf jeden falll spannend. praeferiere das "toppy" szenario, aber mal schaun>
"The bad news about the stock market this past week was that it went nowhere after the Dow Jones industrials ($INDU -0.02%) closed above 13,000 on Tuesday. The good news is that it went nowhere.
The coming week may result in a sizable market move, one probably determined by Friday's big jobs report. A good report -- with, say, more than 200,000 jobs created and a decline in the unemployment report from January's 8.6% -- should cheer everyone. A shortfall could send the market into a funk, perhaps a major funk.
It may well be a week of tension over Iran's nuclear program that could generate more volatility in crude oil (-CL) and gold (-GC), not to mention worries about Europe.
Expect a lot of excitement Wednesday when Apple (AAPL +0.13%) is expected to introduce a new iPad model and maybe its long-awaited Apple TV.
This week left many investors concerned. The Dow couldn't move anywhere once it closed at 13,002 on Tuesday. Neither could the Standard & Poor's 500 Index ($INX -0.32%), which closed at a four-year high on Tuesday and another four-year high on Thursday and then stalled. The Nasdaq Composite Index ($COMPX -0.43%) briefly topped 3,000 on Wednesday but failed to hold that level. Its Thursday close of 2,989 was its best since December 2000.
One can read this stall two ways:
The market is consolidating and waiting for a catalyst to move higher. A bullish jobs report.
The market is toppy and just needs a shove to fall back.
Most analysts see this scenario: The toppiness will lead to some sort of pullback. The major averages are up around 25% since October, a big, fast move. The Nasdaq is trading 11.4% above its 200-day moving average, which is a bit high. The index's relative strength index, which measures current performance against past returns, is close to a high.
But there isn't a worry that the market is looking as wacky as it did in, say, 2000 or 2007.
The Dow Jones Transportation Average ($DJT -0.99%), a leading economic indicator, has been sliding. So has the Russell 2000 Index ($RUT 0.00%), which tracks small stocks. A declining Russell suggests the market leadership is narrowing. You want leadership to broaden. You can see charts for the transports here and the Russell here.
Oil prices have risen and really could shoot higher if someone starts firing missiles in the Persian Gulf. And Europe is still an issue. Greece was downgraded Friday by Moody's Investor Service, and Spain said its finances are not struggling.
But maybe the market will get lucky. Here's what to look for.
The jobs report is everything
As we often note, the Labor Department's jobs report, due before Friday's open, is the most important economic report of any month. The question in February is whether the modest strength seen in the late fall and January will continue.
Most economists see nonfarm payrolls rising by some 220,000, a bit less than January's 243,000, with the unemployment dropping to 8.2%. That would reflect strength in the auto sector and other areas of manufacturing and maybe some improvement in construction.
A big worry is if there's too much euphoria, especially with crude oil at $106 a barrel and the price of retail gasoline up 14% this year.
A hint of what the jobs report will say will come Wednesday with the ADP National Employment Index, which tries to gauge trends in private-sector jobs, and Thursday with the government's weekly report on jobless claims and the Challenger Gray & Christmas report on layoffs.
Also due in the week ahead:
Monday: The Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing index, a good gauge of the services economy, and the Commerce Department's report on factory orders.
Wednesday: Government reports on productivity and consumer credit growth.
Friday: Reports on the nation's trade balance and wholesale inventories.
Earnings: Dick's Sporting Goods, Brown Forman and more
There are a large number of earnings reports. Here's a quick rundown of some of the key reports.
Monday: Arcos Dorados Holdings (ARCO -0.53%), Steinway Musical Instruments (LVB -1.20%) and NutriSystem (NTRI -0.80%). Steinway and NutriSystem should give us a feel for discretionary spending. Arcos Dorados is McDonald's (MCD +0.25%) largest franchisee and owns most restaurants in Latin America.
Tuesday: Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS +0.40%), Pandora Media (P +2.28%) and Vail Resorts (MTN -0.58%). Dick's will tell us how sporting goods are doing. Pandora is a play on Internet music and a gauge of how initial public offerings are faring. Short answer: The shares started trading at $16 and are now at $13.90. Vail is another measure of consumer confidence.
Wednesday: Brown Forman (BF.B -0.78%), Ciena (CIEN -2.62%) and Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV -3.57%). Brown Forman makes Jack Daniel's whiskey. Ciena makes mother boards. Hovnanian will offer a picture of whether there really is a housing recovery.
Thursday: Brewing giant Anheuser Busch Inbev (BUD -2.25%), Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM -0.31%) and Smithfield Foods (SFD +0.43%). Smithfield will let us see inflation. Soybean prices have been rising because of drought in Argentina and elsewhere. "
(money.msn.com)
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