(die letzte vor ca. 4 Monaten war übrigens zu bärisch ;-))
Kass gibt 4 Szenarien vor. Im bärischsten wird der SP-500 das Jahr 2014 mit 1364 abschließen, im bullischsten mit 1980.
Höchste Wahrscheinlichkeit haben die beiden "mittleren" Szenarien (zusammen = 80 %), wonach der SP-500 das Jahr in einer Spanne zwischen 1635 bis 1750 abschließt. Das wären immerhin mindestens 100 Punkte unter dem letzten ATH.
....Forecasting is the art of saying what will happen and then explaining why it didn't. While my fundamental observations (and headwinds) still seem materially correct, my assumptions for a contraction in P/E multiples were wrong-footed as were my market conclusions and S&P price targets.
Last year, the S&P 500 dramatically eclipsed my calculations of fair market value, owing principally to an expansion in P/E multiples and, to a lesser degree, a better corporate profit performance (25% of the S&P's better rise was due to higher profits, and 75% was due to an expansion in multiples.)
A year ago, my baseline expectation for 2013 S&P profits was $102-$104 a share (the Street was at about $104). Around midyear, I raised my forecast to $106-$108, as did many other forecasters. Estimated 2013 profits -- a number of fourth-quarter earnings have yet to be reported -- are likely to come in slightly higher at about $108.50 a share.
For 2014, the consensus estimates that the S&P 500 will achieve profits of about $116 to $120 a share. (Recently, those projections have been skewing higher and seem to be moving closer to $120 a share.) My base case estimate is for $112-$114 a share, a gain of under 5% (year over year), which is, again, below consensus. Indeed the gap between my projections ($113) and consensus ($120) has rarely been wider.
Slowing sales, a contraction in margins, the reduced influence/benefit from aggressive monetary policy and political uncertainties are some of the reasons why my baseline earnings expectation is for below-consensus 2014 S&P 500 profits.
Scenario No. 1 -- Economic Reacceleration Above Consensus (5% probability): The pace of U.S. economic recovery re-accelerates to above-consensus forecasts (3%-plus 2014 real GDP growth) based on pent-up demand in nondurable spending (cars and autos), rising consumer and business confidence and a sustained period of low interest rates. Corporate profit margins are preserved and even expand slightly. The Fed tapering continues and accelerates. European economic growth rises to above 1% in real terms, and China's growth rate exceeds 7.5%. The disruptive influence of our politicians in Washington, D.C., is diminished and fails to adversely influence business/consumer behavior. The yield on the 10-year U.S. note exceeds 3.5%. S&P 500 profits for 2014 meet $120 a share. P/E multiples average 16.5x, producing a 7% 12-month upside. S&P target 1980.
Scenario No. 2 -- Near-Recession (15% probability): The U.S. enters a near-recession (zero to +1.5% real GDP). The Fed disengages from tapering, but it becomes clear that monetary policy has lost its effectiveness. The eurozone turns back into negative real GDP growth, and the debt crisis renews. China's real GDP falls below +7%. The Democratic and Republican Parties grow more contentious, partisan and unequivocal in position. The sovereign debt crisis in Europe heats up again, contributing to a deepening European recession and a hard landing in China and India. The yield on the 10-year U.S. note dips below 2% again. S&P 500 earnings estimates for 2014 are materially reduced (relative to consensus expectations) to a range between $95 and $100 per share. Stocks, valued at 14x under this outcome, have 26% downside risk over the next 12 months. S&P target 1365.
Scenario No. 3 -- Below-Consensus Economic Growth (50% probability): The U.S. experiences a disappointing +1.5% real GDP growth rate, Europe experiences little recovery (zero to +1.0% real GDP), and China's economic growth modestly disappoints relative to expectations. The Fed announces a plan to extend its QE program and ceases the taper in 2014. The yield on the 10-year U.S. note is held between a range of 2.25% and 2.75%. The S&P 500 consensus profit forecast for 2014 is too high ($110 to $112 per share is expected), as corporations' pricing power is limited and profit margins are pressured more than expected. Stocks, valued at 14.75x under this outcome, have 11% downside risk over the next 12 months. S&P target 1635.
Scenario No. 4 -- Muddle Through (30% probability): The U.S. muddles through, with 2.0% to 3.0% real GDP growth; the European economies post a modest recovery (+1% real GDP); and China's economy grows in line relative to consensus forecasts. The Fed's tapering continues. The yield on the 10-year U.S. note is between 2.75% and 3.25%. S&P 500 profits for 2014 are in the range of $115 to $118 a share as some modest margin slippage occurs. Stocks, valued at 15x under this outcome, are moderately overpriced (by 5%). S&P target 1750.
......
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