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Ziemlich bärisch (außer für USA) gibt sich die Saxo Bank. Die Prognosen widersprechen sich aber teilweise - siehe meine Kommentare in Klammern.
Marketwatch (Auszug):
....Here are the 10 outrageous predictions for 2013:
Germany’s DAX plunges 33% to 5,000 - China’s economic slowdown will continue and add pressure on Germany’s industrial expansion. Such a scenario will stoke low consumer confidence and large price declines in industrial stocks, which make up a large part of the German benchmark index.
Nationalization of major Japanese electronics companies - Japan’s electronics industry suffers after strong competition from South Korea, causing annual losses of $30 billion for Sharp Corp. JP:6753 +7.97% , Panasonic Corp. JP:6752 -1.42% and Sony Corp. JP:6758 -0.11% alone. Credit worthiness will deteriorate and the Japanese government feels obliged to nationalize key industry players –- similar to the U.S. government’s bailout of the auto industry....
Gold drops to $1,200 an ounce - The strong U.S. economic recovery surprises the market and especially gold investors, which flee the traditional safe haven investment. Additionally, lack of pick up in physical demand from China and India trigger a round of gold liquidation, and the metal falls to $1,200 an ounce before central banks eventually start taking advantage of lower prices.
Crude oil slumps to $50 a barrel –- U.S. crude-oil production continues to rise through advanced production techniques and with domestic inventory levels already at 30-year highs combined with limited exports options, oil prices come under renewed selling pressure.
The dollar/yen USD/JPY falls to 60.00 [wäre eine Überraschung, aber "wider die Fundamentals" ist ja Wallstreets Lieblings-Hütchenspiel, A.L.] -– Japan’s new leader Shinzo Abe has vowed to use aggressive easing measures to boost the economy, which has punished the yen. Not all measures are introduced, however, and the market becomes over-positioned to for yen weakness and risk appetite retrenches, prompting the dollar to drop 60.00 yen, as the Japanese currency emerges as the world’s strongest currency.
Euro/Swiss francs EUR/CHF relationship breaks peg, touches 0.9500 –- As European Union tail risks are aggravated –- maybe by the Italian election or a Greek exit of the euro zone –- capital flows surge into Switzerland once again, inspiring the Swiss National Bank and Swiss government do abandon the franc’s peg to the euro rather than push reserves past 100% of Switzerland’s gross domestic product. As a consequence, the euro/Swiss franc touches a new low....
Spain steps closer to default as interest rates rise to 10% — With social tensions in the country, the public sector cannot cut costs further and Spain’s sovereign credit rating will be downgraded to junk. Yields ES:10YR_ESP -1.53% rapidly rise as an inevitable default is priced in.
30-year U.S. sovereign yield doubles in 2013 [wäre inflationär und passt nicht zu den sonstigen Prognosen - außer der Markt rechnet damit, dass USA zeitgleich mit anderen Staaten vor die Hunde geht. Ich glaub eher, die Amis fallen dank "Leitwährung" als letzte - A.L.] –- The Federal Reserve’s low-interest-rate policy forces investors to leave fixed income and substitute bonds with stocks. [Wie soll das der DAX um -30 % fallen?? - A.L.] As the bond market is far larger than the equity market a 10% reallocation to stocks should amplify equity fund inflows by around 30%. This leaves to higher yields in the U.S. and marks the beginning of a decade-long outperformance by stocks over bonds.
blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2012/12/18/...ions-by-saxo-bank/
Marketwatch (Auszug):
....Here are the 10 outrageous predictions for 2013:
Germany’s DAX plunges 33% to 5,000 - China’s economic slowdown will continue and add pressure on Germany’s industrial expansion. Such a scenario will stoke low consumer confidence and large price declines in industrial stocks, which make up a large part of the German benchmark index.
Nationalization of major Japanese electronics companies - Japan’s electronics industry suffers after strong competition from South Korea, causing annual losses of $30 billion for Sharp Corp. JP:6753 +7.97% , Panasonic Corp. JP:6752 -1.42% and Sony Corp. JP:6758 -0.11% alone. Credit worthiness will deteriorate and the Japanese government feels obliged to nationalize key industry players –- similar to the U.S. government’s bailout of the auto industry....
Gold drops to $1,200 an ounce - The strong U.S. economic recovery surprises the market and especially gold investors, which flee the traditional safe haven investment. Additionally, lack of pick up in physical demand from China and India trigger a round of gold liquidation, and the metal falls to $1,200 an ounce before central banks eventually start taking advantage of lower prices.
Crude oil slumps to $50 a barrel –- U.S. crude-oil production continues to rise through advanced production techniques and with domestic inventory levels already at 30-year highs combined with limited exports options, oil prices come under renewed selling pressure.
The dollar/yen USD/JPY falls to 60.00 [wäre eine Überraschung, aber "wider die Fundamentals" ist ja Wallstreets Lieblings-Hütchenspiel, A.L.] -– Japan’s new leader Shinzo Abe has vowed to use aggressive easing measures to boost the economy, which has punished the yen. Not all measures are introduced, however, and the market becomes over-positioned to for yen weakness and risk appetite retrenches, prompting the dollar to drop 60.00 yen, as the Japanese currency emerges as the world’s strongest currency.
Euro/Swiss francs EUR/CHF relationship breaks peg, touches 0.9500 –- As European Union tail risks are aggravated –- maybe by the Italian election or a Greek exit of the euro zone –- capital flows surge into Switzerland once again, inspiring the Swiss National Bank and Swiss government do abandon the franc’s peg to the euro rather than push reserves past 100% of Switzerland’s gross domestic product. As a consequence, the euro/Swiss franc touches a new low....
Spain steps closer to default as interest rates rise to 10% — With social tensions in the country, the public sector cannot cut costs further and Spain’s sovereign credit rating will be downgraded to junk. Yields ES:10YR_ESP -1.53% rapidly rise as an inevitable default is priced in.
30-year U.S. sovereign yield doubles in 2013 [wäre inflationär und passt nicht zu den sonstigen Prognosen - außer der Markt rechnet damit, dass USA zeitgleich mit anderen Staaten vor die Hunde geht. Ich glaub eher, die Amis fallen dank "Leitwährung" als letzte - A.L.] –- The Federal Reserve’s low-interest-rate policy forces investors to leave fixed income and substitute bonds with stocks. [Wie soll das der DAX um -30 % fallen?? - A.L.] As the bond market is far larger than the equity market a 10% reallocation to stocks should amplify equity fund inflows by around 30%. This leaves to higher yields in the U.S. and marks the beginning of a decade-long outperformance by stocks over bonds.
blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2012/12/18/...ions-by-saxo-bank/
