Der USA Bären-Thread

bemühe mich abzunehmen. Mein letztes Posting (für heute)...

Fill

www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/boerse-maerkte/...-italien/7073950.html

Genausowenig, wie die Fed mit QEx Arbeitsplätze herbei zu pumpen vermag, kann die EZB mit Anleiheaufkäufen PIIGS-Solvenz aus dem Hut zaubern.

wie bereits zuvor Weber, Stark und Köhler?

www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/...-bedraengnis/7071950.html

Positiven will muss das gesamte Steuer- und Abgabensystem umkrempeln. Zielgröße muss die Schaffung von qualitativem Wachstum und Arbeitsplätzen sein. Dazu müssen F&E Ausgaben komplett von der Steuer abzugsfähig sein.
Die Ungleichbehandlung von Lohn und allen anderen Einkunftsarten als Basis der Sozialversicherungsbeiträge muss aufgegeben werden. Dadurch bleibt dem Arbeitnehmer mehr netto von der Lohnsumme, gleichzeitig sinken die Sozialversicherungsbeiträge der Arbeitgeber.
Gewinne müssen versteuert werden wo sie anfallen und nicht dorthin verschoben werden wo es möglichtst günstig ist. Dazu braucht man ein kompetetiven Steuersystem und einen Kontrollmechanismus der irrsinnige Verschiebungen (Stichwort Dutch Sandwich). Um eine solche Änderung zu bewirken braucht man Politiker die einen steuerpolitischen Sachverstand haben und sich nicht von Interessensgruppen einlullen lassen.

Permanent 

Man kann hier natürlich endlos diskutieren, was nun "aussagekräftig" in Bezug auf eine Währung ist.
Dominiert wird der Außenwert einer Währung aber wohl von
- Zins
- Vertrauen
während flows aus der Realwirtsschaft den Kurs nur dann maßgeblich beeinflussen, wenn ein erheblicher Export/Importüberfluss besteht.
Übrigens exportiert Deutschland zB nach Polen und Tschechien etwa gleich viel wie in die USA oder knapp dahinter China, auch nach Russland bereits ca. die Hälfte.
Exporte in die Schweiz mehr als 50% derer in die USA!

Die Rolle des USD als Leitwährung und Fakturawährung ist dann wieder eine andere Sache ...

Investoren kennen keine Gnade mit Italien

Bei allem Respekt, aber die Bemessung des "Wertes" einer Währung nun von der Reserven-Politik der Zentralregierungen/banken abzulesen, ist gelinde gesagt, gewagt. Ich überlass solche Urteile üblicherweise der Summe aller dritten Marktteilnehmer ...

Allein die Schweiz hat in drei Jahren die Gesamtreserven von 50 auf 380 Mrd hochgepumpt, sehr hohe Anteil in EUR! Aussage in Bezug auf die Dikussion: Wenn nicht 0, dann eher eine deiner Aussage gegenteilige ...

Aber ok, lassen wirs gut sein.

de.toonpool.com/cartoons/EZB_174925

www.corporateeurope.org/sites/default/files/...lanet_cartoon_crop.jpg

lh5.ggpht.com/-RfgWvG63cXM/UAYt8t2MJUI/...25255B5%2525255D.png

"Falls es nichts zu tun gibt, Scheibe einschlagen und Scherben auffegen."

spon.de/vfg4T

Sollte die Bank of America (BoA) Recht behalten, werden die USA sich bald im „Auge des Sturms“ wiederfinden. Das zumindest schreibt die Bank in einer aktuellen Notiz an ihre Kunden. Die BoA-Strategen Arjun Mehra und Cheryl Rowan warnen in der Notiz „Code Red“ vor einem Börsen-Crash. Das Risiko eines Ausverkaufs an der Börse sei hoch.
 

www.deutsche-wirtschafts-nachrichten.de/2012/08/...tet-boersen-crash/
 

 

Derzeit sind kaum Optimisten auszumachen, das ist das gefährliche für Bären. Die Märkte nehmen jeden Anlass, um zu steigen. Käme ein plausibler Lösungsansatz auf den Tisch, die Probleme Weltweit in den Griff zu bekommen, hätten wir binnen Tagen neue ATH`s. 

Slovak PM "Fico" Sees 50/50 Chance Of Euro Breakup

More Bad News Imminent:
August US Auto Production Set To Plunge By Most In 16 Months
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/30/2012 - 11:09

Over the past several months, many pundits were scratching their heads at the peculiar patterns in summer hiring and layoff trends, which threw all NFP, claims, and JOLTs forecasts in a loop making a mockery of even the best forecasters. The reality is that there was a very specific reason for this abnormal seasonal pattern: numerous car plants worked throughout the summer, avoiding traditional temporary shutdowns and furloughs, in an attempt to provide an optical boost to the Union-endorsed administration. And as always happens (see Cash for Clunkers), every attempt to pull demand or supply from the future to the present results in an eventual collapse in either of these two. Sure enough, with June and July reaping the benefits of advance demand, August is set be an absolutely abysmal month for US auto assemblies and for Industrial Production. Because as Stone McCarthy calculates, based on projections provided by Wards Autos, the U.S. motor vehicle assembly rate for August is projected to decline by 8% to a 10.1 million annualized rate after rising by 4.4% in July. This would be the biggest monthly percentage decline in the assembly rate in about a year and a half, since April 2011's 9.5% drop.

www.zerohedge.com/news/...s-auto-production-set-plunge-most-16-months

Record EUR 'Longs' Suggest Caution Into Next Week
Tyler Durden's picture
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/30/2012 10:27 -0400

Last week we discussed in detail the shifts in regimes and positioning in the FX markets - most notably relative to the EUR. CitiFX is out with a note today that extends our concern as their proprietary CitiFX Positioning Indicator shows a rise from a record short in EUR in mid-July to a record long by last week. The EUR buying has been broad based and not just concentrated against the USD, with investors covering short exposure on pairs such as EURAUD and EURCAD. The shift in positioning came as peripheral spreads tightened and US yields fell, implying that it was kick-started by the surge in expectations for Fed and ECB easing. With equity markets roughly steady in recent days and data flow still relatively weak, this leaves the impression that the continued shift in FX positioning has been more about momentum than improvement in sentiment. This suggests that FX markets may be pricing in a higher degree of confidence on easing (or signs thereof) at the Jackson Hole conference and later ECB meeting. Given that absolute positioning for EUR is now long, this sets a high bar for policymakers to exceed and suggests risks are skewed in favor of a reversal on disappointment with Chairman Bernanke and President Draghi.

www.zerohedge.com/news/record-eur-longs-suggest-caution-next-week

von 100 Euro in 2008 auf jetzt 8 Cents.

ebenso Beispiele von Aktien die im gleichen Zeitraum um mehr als 100% gestiegen sind.
So ist Amazon auf einem ATH angekommen oder nehmen wir ein anderes Beispiel, Apple.
Den Markt kann man nicht anhand einzelner Aktien einschätzen.

Ich kann mathematisch jedoch immer sagen: Mein Verlust liegt bei maximal 100% mein Gewinn kann ein Vielfaches davon betragen.

Permanent

(aus der Serie: Sozialisierung von Verlusten nach irrationaler Gier)

www.ftd.de/unternehmen/industrie/...see-halt-beim-staat/70083551.html

---

Baltic Dry Index nahe 2009-Tiefstand:

www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

Q-Cells war nur mal ein Beispiel für Shorts, die sich "wie erwartet" entwickeln...

Hedgefonds shorten vorzugsweise Einzelaktien mit schlechten Fundamentals, da hilft auch QE-Gepumpe nichts.

Those 401(k) programs that became 201(k) plans during the financial meltdown in 2008 are back in vogue, with employer participation returning to pre-crisis levels.

 

Some 73 percent of companies are offering matching contributions into the popular retirement programs, which saw savings rates and employer participation wane along with the plans' value during the financial crisis.

Gallows humor at the time featured jokes that the 401(k) nest eggs had shrunk so much that they should be called 201(k) plans.

But with confidence improving gradually and the 401(k) plans considered a powerful employee retention and attraction incentive, the tide is turning for the program.

"The story behind these numbers is there's good news here for employees," said Dave Gray, vice president for client experience in Charles Schwab's retirement plan services division. "There are employers who might have suspended the match because of economic issues...It demonstrates a positive sign."

The 401(k) plan allows employs to put up to $17,000 in tax-free money a year into a plan that usually features a variety of funds and with some match from employers. Some 23.4 million American workers participate in 64,455 employer-sponsored 401(k) plans that hold about $1.4 trillion in assets, according to the Employee Benefit Research Institute.

Though the U.S. and global economies remain teetering on recession, cash levels at American corporations have soared to about $2 trillion and the talent search has gotten more competitive.

Rather than hire and reduce the 8.3 percent unemployment rate (learn more), companies instead are deploying cash internally to help maintain employees.

 

The percentage of employers offering 401(k) matches was at 73 percent in 2005, peaked at 76 percent in 2006 and fell to 67 percent in 2009. The savings rate for participants slipped from 7.23 percent in 2007 to 6.91 percent in 2011, according to Schwab data.

"Our expectation would be that we'll continue to see this tick up over the next couple of years, assuming nothing unforeseen happens in the economy," Gray said. "As folks get more comfortable, as employers get more comfortable, we expect that we'll see that rate slowly tick back up."

The typical employer match is 50 percent of employee contributions up to 6 percent of taxable income. While that number doesn't fluctuate much, employers' approach to 401(k) plans has.

Companies have become much more aggressive in providing investment advice to employees, many of whom bailed out of risk assets during the crisis.

 

Participant advice availability has soared to 83 percent of employers, nearly double the 42 percent in 2005. Automatic enrollment, in which companies provide a certain matching level even if employees don't contribute, moved from just 5 percent in 2005 to 42 percent in 2011.

"People who get professional help, who have somebody manage their retirement plan for them, almost always are better off than people who make their own investment choices," Gray said. "There's a growing sense among employers that employees need help, that they can't make these decisions on their own."

Managers can help employees diversify their holdings and stay calm during stock market tumult. Gray said 92 percent of Schwab clients "stayed the course" and are in "much better position than somebody who sold out at the wrong time and never bought back in."

The Standard & Poor's 500 has more than doubled off its March 2009 low. But the index has just recently reached the point where an investor who bought in at the market top on Oct. 9, 2007 would be back to even.

Somebody putting $100,000 in an S&P 500 index fund would have seen the value drop to $45,000 at the low. Since then, the investment, including dividends, would be back to full value, according to calculations from Wells Fargo.

handeln schreibt George Dorgan snbchf.com/2012/08/draghi-against-weidmann/

..the conflict “Draghi against Weidmann”, between the ECB and the Bundesbank will continue for years. The ECB mandate and many european inflation figures do not allow for excessive ECB rate cuts or for state financing via the printing press, but Draghi wants to help his struggling home country.
These were our ideas:

   Eurobonds, fiscal or banking union are all pure utopia (on June 22nd, 2012, also here on Testosteronepit)
   Germany and other Northern states will not pay for cheaper PIIGS funding (starting at point 19 of our Italy essay, on July 22nd)
   The Northern states prevent any further funding like ECB monetizing. Therefore it can be expected that ECB purchases of government bonds will be limited this summer despite market turbulences
   Even the German opposition is against a direct ESM financing of PIIGS banks or a banking union. (point 20, on July 22nd)
   Bold steps are taken only when the global economy is in danger (like in autumn 2011) (see point 22). This is NOT NOW.
    Economic data: The euro zone crisis seems to be far away from Germany despite some bad PMI data.
   Why the euro has recovered? The German Q3 GDP growth will be stronger than the UK again.

The conflict between the ECB and the Bundesbank has only started.......


Please reference your source snbchf.com/2012/08/draghi-against-weidmann/

snbchf.com/2012/08/target2-qa/

Consider, for example, what Peter Boone and Simon Johnson wrote in The End of the Euro: A Survivor’s Guide, May 29th, 2012:

   More importantly and currently less obvious to German taxpayers, Greece will likely default on 155 billion euros directly owed to the euro system (comprised of the ECB and the 17 national central banks in the euro zone). This includes 110 billion euros provided automatically to Greece through the Target2 payments system – which handles settlements between central banks for countries using the euro. As depositors and lenders flee Greek banks, someone needs to finance that capital flight, otherwise Greek banks would fail.  This role is taken on by other euro area central banks, which have quietly leant large funds, with the balances reported in the Target2 account. The vast bulk of this lending is, in practice, done by the Bundesbank since capital flight mostly goes to Germany, although all members of the euro system share the losses if there are defaults.



Another recent example is from a widely noticed speech George Soros gave at the Festival of Economics, Trento Italy on June 02, 2012:

   If this continued for a few more years a break-up of the euro would become possible without a meltdown – the omelet could be unscrambled – but it would leave the central banks of the creditor countries with large claims against the central banks of the debtor countries which would be difficult to collect. This is due to an arcane problem in the euro clearing system called Target2. In contrast to the clearing system of the Federal Reserve, which is settled annually, Target2 accumulates the imbalances. This did not create a problem as long as the interbank system was functioning because the banks settled the imbalances themselves through the interbank market. But the interbank market has not functioned properly since 2007 and the banks relied increasingly on the Target system. And since the summer of 2011 there has been increasing capital flight from the weaker countries. So the imbalances grew exponentially. By the end of March this year the Bundesbank had claims of some 660 billion euros against the central banks of the periphery countries.

   The Bundesbank has become aware of the potential danger. It is now engaged in a campaign against the indefinite expansion of the money supply and it has started taking measures to limit the losses it would sustain in case of a breakup. This is creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. ......

   This chart below, better than any we have seen so far, summarizes just how much has been injected already to preserve the Eurozone from collapse. This is what is known as a sunk cost, because last time we checked (and just as we explained back in March at the market highs when everyone was euphoric that Europe is now fixed) nothing has been fixed, and Europe is one ‘rogue’ democratic vote away from an EMU exit, and thus oblivion (or so they said last year, now everyone is prepared for a Greek departure, or so they say now, expect for the Greeks of course – they go straight to the 10th circle of hell and do not pass go). The truth is that by the time the status quo finishes its extend and pretend game, which incidentally has only one real outcome, the €2 trillion spent to date, will be orders of magnitude higher…
Source: Brandywine Global High Yield Perspectives, Ifo.


Please reference your source snbchf.com/2012/08/target2-qa/

irgendwie denke ich  doch dass AL mehr recht zu haben scheint als Malko


Please reference your source snbchf.com/2012/08/target2-qa/

Please reference your source snbchf.com/2012/08/target2-qa/