Der USA Bären-Thread

müssten jetzt doch massiv ansteigen und ein Arbeiten scheint wohl kaum mehr möglich zu sein.  

Heute wurden lediglich ein paar Liter verstrahltes Wasser aus dem Turbinengebäude 1 rausgepumpt, und wahrscheinlich direkt ins Meer geleitet (m.M.)  

Mehr NICHT.

www.spiegel.de/panorama/0,1518,753807,00.html

glattgestellt,   das zum thema shorts...... ich sehe das immer noch als eine kurzfrist korrektur , monatsende , quartalsende .......

Home Prices Drop 3.1%, Case Shiller Says; Drop Less Than Expected

Wind aus Südwesten trägt die radioaktiven Partikel vom havarierten Atomkraftwerk Fukushima vorerst weiter auf den Pazifik hinaus. Am Mittwochabend allerdings ändert er seine Richtung und weht in Richtung der Millionen-Metropole Tokio. Böen bis Stärke sechs treiben die Radioaktivität dann auf den Großraum mit seinen rund 35 Millionen Menschen zu. "Dort steigt die Konzentration folglich an, allerdings deutlich verdünnt gegenüber der Ausgangsregion", erklärt der Deutsche Wetterdienst. Genaue Werte kennen die Wetterfachleute nicht. Dazu kommt noch Regen, der die gefährlichen Partikel zu Boden bringen kann.

 

Bin mal auf die Reaktion der Geigerzähler am Do / Fr aus Tokio gespannt.

in USA eine Revolution mit Großer Depression Nr. 2.

Der "Wutbürger", wie Ischariot ihn nannte, mal wieder in Höchstform:


March 29, 2011
Tax the Super Rich now or face a revolution
By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch

SAN LUIS OBISPO, Calif. (MarketWatch) — Yes, tax the Super Rich. Tax them now. Before the other 99% rise up, trigger a new American Revolution, a meltdown and the Great Depression 2.

Revolutions build over long periods — to critical mass, a flash point. Then they ignite suddenly, unpredictably. Like Egypt, started on a young Google executive’s Facebook page. Then it goes viral, raging uncontrollably. Can’t be stopped. Here in America the set-up is our nation’s pervasive “Super-Rich Delusion.”...

www.marketwatch.com/story/...w-or-face-a-revolution-2011-03-29

Home prices are falling in most major U.S. cities, and the average prices in four of them are at their lowest point in 11 years.

The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller 20-city index shows price declines in 19 cities from December to January. Eleven of them are at their lowest level since the housing bust.

Home values in Atlanta, Las Vegas, Detroit and Cleveland are now below January 2000 levels.

The only market where prices rose was Washington, where homes prices gained 0.1 percent month over month. The nation's capital has outperformed every other city in the index. Prices there are up 3.6 percent year over year.

S&P stuft Portugal auf BBB- ab (bisher A-3), Ausblick negativ.

stärkt man den Dollar

Frage: Ist das hier noch der US Bären Thread oder schon der Japan AKW Strahlung Thread?

• Consumer Confidence Index Declines to 63.4 in March, Down From 72 in February

Aufgrund der Globalisierten Weltwirtschaft kann man keine einzelnen Kontinente mehr isoliert betrachten.
Hier werden deshalb ständig die aktuellen News aus der Wirtschaft zusammengetragen und diskutiert. Aus USA, Deutschland, Asien etc.
Nur noch die USA zu diskutieren hätte keinen Sinn mehr. Wäre auch langweilig.

scheint es so zu laufen:

- Daten schlecht, Dollar schwach, Markt rauf
- Daten gut, Markt rauf

doch mittlerweile in den USA angekommen. ;-)

solange der sich über 1.. hält , wird der  aktienmarkt nicht nachhaltig  fallen....

für logarithmische Geometrie zu haben: siehe SPX log-Chart!

Gestern hatte ich gepostet, ich sei auf Marriott short gegangen. Heute hat die aktuelle "Flaute" ein großes REIT Unternehmen aus dem Hotelsektor, Felcor Lodging Trust, erfasst:

finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=FCH+Profile

Dieser Trust (Hedgefond) ist Eigentümer einer Reihe von an renommierte Ketten verpachteten Hotels in den USA und Kanada.

www.querschuesse.de/recovery-ist-gelungen/

Wie der Markt diese "Recovery" sieht, habe ich gestern mit dem Chart des Financials ETF XLF aufgezeigt! Die "Gewinne" der Financials, insbesondere die der Großbanken, wurden nämlich nicht organisch, d.h. im Kerngeschäft, sondern primär durch exzessiven Eigenhandel mit geliehenem Geld zwischen diesen erzielt.

und Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian president, has accepted the resignation of the country's government, following two weeks of anti-government protests that have gripped Syria....A new cabinet is to be formed in 24 hours, sources have told Al Jazeera.

english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/...75114399138.html

The new risk retention rules proposed by regulators today are far more stringent than major banks had hoped they would be.

The FDIC today revealed a new set of rules that would implement a provision of the Dodd-Frank financial reform law mandating that banks maintain at least 5 percent of the risk of mortgage securities they package.

Banks had pushed for regulators to adopt an expansive definition of the “qualified residential mortgage” that would be exempt from the requirement.

Regulators rejected the most expansive versions of a qualified residential mortgage, which would have exempted virtually every mortgage banks are now making. Instead, only very conservative, traditional mortgages will qualify.

The purpose of the risk-retention provision of Dodd-Frank was to insure that banks have “skin in the game” when they securitize mortgages—with the hopes that this will incentivize them to police the quality of mortgages that get bundled and sold to investors.

Many lawmakers believe that the ability of banks to distribute the risk of mortgages to investors led to loose underwriting, bad loans, and contributed to the severity of the financial crisis.

 

The rule proposed today would only exempt securities entirely composed of very high quality home loans. The tests for quality include a requirement for a 20 percent down-payment, a maximum loan to value ratio of 80 percent, a very strong borrower credit history, and a low ratio of borrower debt-to-income. No interest-only loans are allowed, and adjustable-rate mortgages are strictly limited.

The rules are so strict, in fact, that a single loan to a homebuyer who had missed a single credit card payment in the past two years could disqualify a bundle of thousands of mortgages. Such loans would have to be excluded from the securitization.

Bank lobbyists argue that these rules will constrict mortgage lending, make non-qualifying mortgages more expensive, prevent a revival of the mortgage securitization market, and hurt the housing market.

Sheila Bair, the chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, believes that the rules will actually help securitization by instilling investor confidence in the quality of the underlying loans.

Die Ergebnisse der Stresstests sollen am Donnerstag veröffentlicht werden. Medienberichten zufolge benötigen die irischen Institute zwischen 18 und 23 Milliarden Euro an zusätzlichem Geld. Am Kapitalmarkt können sich die Bank of Ireland, die Allied Irish Bank, Irish Life und die EBS Building Society derzeit nichts leihen.

Um die Folgen für die gebeutelten irischen Banken geringer zu halten, wirft die EZB ihnen wahrscheinlich bald eine spezielle Rettungsleine zu. Sie sollen sich längerfristig mit Zentralbankgeld versorgen können, auch wenn die EZB die Zinsen erhöht und ihre Krisenmaßnahmen ansonsten weiter zurückfährt.

Quelle: rts

Gestern Abend habe ich im Fernsehen bei Eurosport folgende Szene aus einer Partie der Basketball-Bundesliga gesehen: Der Ball hatte sich zwischen dem Korbrand und dem Wurfbrett so massiv eingeklemmt, dass er erst bei einem dritten Sprungversuch wieder befreit werden konnte. Laut Kommentator war eine solche "Klemme" zumindest in der Bundesliga noch nie zuvor eingetreten.

Robert Marcin, street.com
Defending The Fed?
3/29/2011 1:48 PM EDT

For the nth time. The Fed oversaw the Great Debt Bubble, even contributed to the leveraging up of the entire system. The Fed failed miserably as banking regulator/systemic risk manager. Failed miserably. Both actively and passively the Greenspan/Bernanke Fed helped create the conditions which led to the financial meltdown. Should we defend that?

The Infinite Intervention post collapse did prevent a 1930's style depression. I will give you that. But QE is a contract with the devil. QE prevented the restructuring/delevering that accompanies a credit bust. Bernanke's QE2 hasn't fixed any structural imbalances. On the contrary, it fostered BIGGER deficits and MORE debt.

Solving the deficit/debt problem now will be more painful than 2008 or 2003, whenever the markets force it. It's hard to defend the Fed when they destroyed the dollar, cheer leaded the Debt and Housing Bubbles, perpetuated disastrous TBTF banking policy, and grossly mismanaged systemic financial risk. Those Fed actions are indefensible.

USA ist im Moment ausdiskutiert - bis zum nächsten "Black Swan"

(z.B. "Standard&Poors stuft Rating der USA um 3 Stufen ab") ;-)

 

Did I say double dip? Well I'm not the only one.

Today's home price report from S&P Case Shiller proves the point. Remember, this report is based on the sale prices of transactions that closed in January, but it is also a three month running average. That means that at least two thirds of the price deals were struck in October and November, when mortgage rates were at historic lows, providing more purchasing power; they only began spiking in December.

So prices in the top twenty U.S. Markets were down 3.1% in January, year over year, and the slide is accelerating. Eleven of the top twenty hit new price lows on the index. Only San Diego and Washington, DC are showing annual improvements with San Diego just barely out of the red.

“Keeping with the trends set in late 2010, January brings us weakening home prices with no real hope in sight for the near future” says Standard and Poors' David M. Blitzer. "The housing market recession is not yet over, and none of the statistics are indicating any form of sustained recovery. At most, we have seen all statistics bounce along their troughs; at worst, the feared double-dip recession may be materializing."

 

What's so indicative of that double dip to me is that many of the markets with the biggest price drops are not those original boom-to-bust markets in California and Florida. Prices in Atlanta are down 7 percent year over year, Chicago down 7.5 percent, Minneapolis down 7.6 percent and Seattle down 6.7 percent. The S&P Case Shiller is now just 1.1 percent above the low of April 2009; I guess we're not officially in a double dip until we go below that, but we're pretty close.

"Bottom line, prices are retesting the lows again with no reason to think they won't break below," notes Miller Tabak's Peter Bookvar. "The question of course is to what degree and whether bank balance sheets are prepared. Most unfortunately do not assume a double dip in pricing."

 

So how much lower will prices overall go? 5 percent? More? Yes, we saw an improvement in contracts signed to buy homes in February, and some claim that the reported huge drop in sales of new construction is just plain wrong because the Commerce Department's data is supposedly bad.

Here's one thing we know for sure: Foreclosure inventory volume is outpacing foreclosure sales, and foreclosure sales are already more than one third of the market right now. Distressed properties sell at a big discount, pushing prices down all around them. Banks are pushing to get rid of foreclosed properties now, and pushing to get borrowers in the process out of the process before the state attorneys general and federal regulators come down with some kind of painful settlement. That's more inventory, as consumer confidence continues to fall. You tell me where prices are headed...

with no good reason!