bad news. Just 5-6% returns in 2010? Warning: Buffett-Bogle's 2002 'New Normal' failed
By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch
ARROYO GRANDE, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- New normal? Yes, "New Normal." No more double-digit returns, says Pimco's Bill Gross. Cut your "expectations in half." What's left? Not much, maybe 5%-6% returns. Ouch. How long? Maybe you'll never be able to retire?
Warning, you're being misled (again). Big time. We wrote about the same "New Normal" baloney back in 2002. Back then it was Warren Buffett and Jack Bogle: Two big-shot investors, bigger than Gross and Pimco. And yet, if you had relied on Buffett-Bogle's "New Normal" hype back then you'd have missed the profitable early upswings of the 2003-07 bull market.
Warning: Gross is just as bad. Get it? His "New Normal" is not only "old news," it is misleading, and it's "bad news."
Still, journalists all over America are taking the bait, buying Pimco's story. Gross must have great PR handlers. He's all over the press pushing his "New Normal." Don't buy it. Just because he's the big cheese, managing almost a trillion dollars, don't go ga-ga over him.
Yes, we love icons like Buffett, Bogle, Gross, Tiger or Buddha. But as the great Buddha once put it: "Believe nothing, no matter where you read it or who has said it, not even if I have said it, unless it agrees with your own reason and your own common sense."
So before you start making plans for a new 2010 investment strategy based on Gross's mythical "New Normal," ask yourself four questions: Can you really build a solid nest egg and retire on just 5%-6%? What if Gross's too pessimistic and you miss the coming bull market? Conversely, what if he's too optimistic: The too-greedy-to-fail banks trigger the "Great Depression 2" by 2012? Finally, can you really, really trust Gross (or any other money manager) guessing about the 2010 market: Remember, these guys got paid millions the past couple years while losing billions of your money.
1. Old News: Buffett-Bogle sang a 'New Normal' tune back in 2002
Yes, old news: America's investors heard an earlier version of "New Normal" seven years ago. We fell for it in June 2002, during a scary bear-recession, although the Dow didn't hit bottom at 7,286 for four months more. Then a five-year bull. In June 2002 I wrote: "Tough Times Ahead for Retirees: Predicted 7% Returns Could Spell Disaster: Wake up, America. Stop kidding yourself. If you're one of the vast majority of investors who still expect double-digit returns, you're in denial, 7% to 8% is the best you can hope for. The go-go years are gone, unlikely to return in our lifetime." Scary stuff.
Then I warned: "America's getting back to normal. But what's 'normal?' The new normal was set by Buffett and Bogle both warning investors to expect single-digit returns for the next decade, in the low 7% to 8% range."
Yes, we did call the Buffett-Bogle prediction a "New Normal" in 2002. Yet here we are, seven years later. And a naive press is again falling for the same PR gaming. And whether you're being gamed by Buffett or Bogle or Gross, remember, their agenda probably won't serve your best interests. So be skeptical and trust your instincts, no matter what.
2. The Gross 'New Normal' is dangerous 'self-fulfilling prophecy'
Yes, Gross is the chief guru of the $950 billion Pimco bond fund managers. His PR agents got him everywhere, except Letterman and SNL. But his message is misleading us. And brainwashing professional advisers, the guys helping millions of investors on portfolio strategies in 2010. Here's how Jessica Marquez put it in InvestmentNews:
"Gross: Curb expectations ... the 'New Normal' is 5%-6% returns ... investors will never again see the returns and profits of a few years ago. Speaking during InvestmentNews' ETF Insights Online Conference" Gross "told attendees he still believes that the U.S. economy is in the 'New Normal.' 'It's a world where growth slows down and where investment returns are half of what we have grown used to over the past 10 to 25 years.'"
Unfortunately Gross's opinion is biased and questionable: Remember, the I-News professional advisers make big commissions selling Pimco securities to Main Street. Marquez summarized Gross's message to advisers: "Economic growth will be half of what it was, averaging around 4% annually, he said. Profits will remain around 4% to 5% instead of the previous levels of 8% to 9% ... if we have less growth, less leverage and the inability to siphon funds from Main Street to Wall Street, you'd better expect rates of return in the general vicinity of 5% to 6% total'." Yes, "siphon" off Main Street's money.
3. Warning: Follow Wall Street's brilliant advisers and you'll lose
The market was hot in August when Lynn Thomasson and Adria Cimino wrote "Taking Wall Street Advice in Rally Means Owing $6,000" in Bloomberg News: "Anyone who did what Wall Street analysts advised last March has only losses after the biggest stock market rally in seven decades. Citigroup, Bank of America and more than a dozen other firms told clients to purchase European energy producers and U.S. drugmakers while selling banks and retailers, according to combined rankings compiled by Bloomberg. An investor who used $10,000 to buy companies in the highest-rated industries and bet on declines in the lowest since the advance began on March 9 lost everything and would owe as much as $6,000 to cover bearish trades."
Never trust Wall Street's advice.
4. Markets make big moves fast ... and investors miss the move
Wall Street Journal columnist Jason Zweig made a brilliant observation about our inability to predict the market turns: "History shows that the vast majority of the time, the stock market does next to nothing. Then, when no one expects it, the market delivers a giant gain or loss, and promptly lapses back into its usual stupor," according to Javier Estrada, a finance professor at IESE Business School in Barcelona, Spain, who studied the daily returns of the Dow Jones Industrial Average back to 1900.
Timing the market is a loser's game.
5. Expert forecasters' predictions are no better than you guessing
Here's how Eric Schurenberg put it in Money magazine just before the rally early this year: "You've probably never wanted expert insight more than today, and never trusted it less. After all, the intelligent, articulate, well-paid authorities voicing these opinions are the ones who created the crisis or failed to predict it or lost 30% of your 401(k) in it. Yet ... we can't shake the belief that elite forecasters know better than the rest of us."
"The record, unfortunately, proves no such thing." Twenty-five years ago "Philip Tetlock, a professor of organizational behavior at the Haas Business School at the University of California-Berkeley ... began an experiment to quantify the forecasting skill of political experts" including "nearly 300 academics, economists, policymakers and journalists and mapped more than 82,000 forecasts against real-world outcomes ... And wrong they usually were, barely beating out a random forecast generator."
Yes, guesses.
6. Economic forecasting propaganda misleading investors
At the peak of the dot-com era, William Sherden studied the accuracy of forecasters. See "The Fortune Sellers: The Big Business of Buying and Selling Predictions." Sherden tells us his conclusions "are timeless. The political influence of predictions is basic human nature. I see no way that economic forecasting can improve since it's trying to do the impossible."
So whether you are a bull or bear, optimist or pessimist, Republican or Democrat - predicting the economy is absurd. Here are his 10 conclusions:
The forecasting skill of economists were about as good as guessing ... predictions by the politically-driven (The Fed, CEA and CBO) are often worse than guessing ... economists can't predict economic turning points ... the accuracy of a forecast declines with longer lead times ... no forecasters consistently lead in accuracy ... no ideology consistently produces superior forecasts ... no forecaster has consistently better skills predicting a particular economic statistic ... consensus forecasts do not improve accuracy ... psychological biases do affect forecasters and forecasts, some are naturally optimistic and bullish, others consistently pessimistic bears. ... And finally, Sherden says there's no evidence that economic forecasting has improved in recent decades. In fact, forecasting appears to be deteriorating as partisan politics,
Wall Street gaming and unpredictable global events intensify volatility and create new illusions.
7. Yes, every 'New Normal really is a big fat PR hoax
And that's OK. The market is a game of wits. Big-boys often use head-fakes, throw curveballs and other distractions. Buffett hustles See's Candies: "When business sags we spread the rumor that our candy acts as an aphrodisiac. Very effective. The rumor, that is, not the candy." He has a wry sense of humor. Back in 2001 he also told Fortune: "I never have the faintest idea what the stock market is going to do in the next 6 months, or the next year, or two. But I think it's very easy to see what's going to happen over the long term." Short-term trading's for losers.
Gross is probably 100% legit too, no shell game. It's just a gullible press giving him lots of coverage. We love catchy buzzwords, like "New Normal." And we have very short memories, even shorter attention spans.
8. Never trust Wall Street's predictions ... they are manipulating you
And so my dear investors: Remember what the legendary management guru Peter Drucker once said: "Anybody who tells you that he understands the American economy ought to be sent to teach modern dance."
Here's your best strategy: Whether in a bull or bear market, trust no one, question all predictions, and every guru making them up, especially if your brain is absolutely convinced they're the true, new "New Normal."