Der USA Bären-Thread

Bankensterben geht weiter
Britische LSB pleite

www.n-tv.de/1061923.html

navigatorc

habe ich noch was interessantes gefunden
von user seahorse2  aus www.peakoil.com/fortopic47773.html

I've tried for awhile now to understand all these various loans etc that the Federal Reserve Bank (FSB) and the US Treasury are implementing to stave off a financial collapse. In that process, I have exchanged many emails with a retired accountant, who, in his day, used to work in Chicago with the big boys. He can read and understand the Federal Reserves balance sheet.

In short, he has convinced me that the US States government, via the US Treasury, is borrowing money from various central banks throughout the world and pumping that money into the banking system via the Federal Reserve Bank in New York. This money is apparently then being lent out by the FRB in NY to various entities in NY, suspects are Goldman Sachs, who, he suspects, are then lending the money out in the "shadow banking" system to keep various hedge funds etc afloat.

He hasn't answered my questions yet about how long he believes this can go on, although he agrees that the risk of failure means financial collapse as Bush and them have argued. He suspects that these short term loans will somehow have to become permanent. How? He hasn't responded yet. Further, I've asked if in fact the US treasury is borrowing from various world CBs, are they borrowing treasuries possibly from China and Japan? Is this allowing China and Japan to offload their trillion each in dollar reserves? He hasn't answered that either. But this seems to provide a way for China and Japan to offload their treasuries and dollar reserves without crashing the dollar. That's just speculation on my part. I will post some of his emails for you are to review and consider. As more become available, I will post them as well.

Quote:
Ok, that trillion dollars they lent out since January 1, 2008 has absolutely nothing to do with issuing Federal Reserve Notes! FRN's are close to maxed out. The FRB of New York is the major culprit here. They have borrowed as of a week ago $558. 864 bn that the lent to banks and investment houses in just the NY District. ALL of that money came from the United States Treasury . The account is titled U.S. Treasury, supplemental financing account. This is almost all overnight money from the Treasury. Why would the Treasury keep an extra half trillion around on which THEY pay interest. This is way beyond the daily needs of the USG and you know, they do have daily needs !!! How much is needed to cushion checks written against daily tax receipts? Certainly, $20-$30 bn but not much more. So where did that money come from ? That extra, say $525 billion Dollars! It is not provable but obvious to anyone understanding money cash flows. The Treasury is borrowing money overnight ALL over the world to lend to the FRB NY overnight. The FRB lends overnight so thar the big banks can lend overnight to someone? Who? For starters how about money fleeing brokers like Goldman Sachs? But overnight multiple kiting has limits on any one block of exiting money. They must find other ways to cover. The answer is Reverse Repurchase Agreements at the FRB NY of $821.463 bn as of last week. As of last December , the FRB NY had just $7.559 bn outstanding. THe increment in ten months of $813.904 bn is collateralized by US Treasuries!!! These Treasuries also collateralize Federal Reserve Notes officially! Hence, why I use the term kiting in my posts. The FRBNY is kiting collateral to more than one lender in theory. In point of fact, they are not because the outstanding Federal Reserve Note liability is really a preferred capital position in real life. crap, they cannot pull the FRN's even if they wanted to and especially if they surrendered all their treasuries at the FRBNY to the people they borrowed from. That is kiting and certainly outside the intent of the Federal Reserve Act if not legally so! It is an emergency and they are doing what was done in the movie " The Producers".

The end result is an unbacked currency , in part, if this backfires. It hardly matters because if it did backfire the world monetary system would actually collapse as I see it.

But they are not printing money because they have no authority. Is Obama aware of this? You bet! He knows just how desperate things are.

www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/20081030

Keep it coming. I would love to knock all this fantasy Libertarian drivel out so people can understand the reality. Just how desperate things are.


Quote:
Part of my previous two posts are incorrect. I missed a line in the detail. The actual line is not reverse repos but the increase in deposits from " Depositary Institutions". More later. The effect is the same .  


Quote:
OK , back at it. The $558.864 bn I discuss is spot on. The next biigest layer of NEW borrowings in 2008 is Demand Deposits owed to Depositary Institutions of $425.972 bn. As of last December that number was only $11.439 BN !!! This increase of $414.533 bn , when added to the $558.864 bn accounts for $973.397 bn of the total 2008 increase in assets of the FRB's of $1,076.724 bn.

Obviously, world banks lent the Federal Reserve Banks money!!! And near a half trillion of it, at that. AND apparently unsecured! But which banks? You can guess that this was the Middle East and Japan. All that Yen Trade money coming back relent to the FRB NY? Must be. But how much and who?

Back to my bad eyes faux pau! There was a sizeable increase in Reverse Repo lending too ! The total more than doubled increasing $54.113 bn. Here we have the double hocking of Treasuries I made my total value mistake on in my prior posts.

This tells though , by making a mistake, that Geithner and Bernanke will only operate within the law.

I should put all of this on a spread sheet with no subtotals to mess up old eyes.


But maybe my mistake will help in the understanding.

These people have floated over $1 trillion dollars from every source on the planet to lend to essentially, the big Wall Street banks or brokers.

Where did the money go after it went to Wall Street? THey cannot be sitting on this money but I have some very sour ideas! Are they floating Hedge Funds they sponsor?  


Quote:
Good, maybe my faux pau helped a little. The best I can figure is that most of that $559 bn gets wired to the Treasury account at banks all over the world. The Treasury wires all these funds from their accounts to the FRB NY. Thus the FRB has increased funds of $559 bn and it credits the special account of the Treasury. Now, the Treasury wires the funds to the banks where Goldman Sachs has accounts. Those banks now have funds of $559 bn and owe the FRB NY the $559 bn. These banks credit the accounts of Goldman Sachs and record the loan to GS of $559 bn. The banks themselves still have the $559 bn in live funds. They have an Account Receivable from GS of $559 bn. The next step is GS wiring the money to people where they want to place the funds. Thus the bank has $ 559 bn less live funds and the demand deposit liability owed GS is reduced by the $559 bn. At this point the banks have a Loan Receivable of $559 bn and owe the FRB NY $559 bn. Similarly, GS has funds of $559 bn and owes the bank $559 bn.


The next morning, this all reverses at the opening of business all the way down the line where it repeats itself at the close of business. Time zones to the rescue and very very good software. Good clerks too !

At the end of the day each organization has a Loan Receivable for $559 bn and a loan payable for $559 bn. There it stays still for a few hours.

Money moves and all banking is constant movement. Thus Balance Sheets are just a photo at one millisecond of time. Just like a photo finish at the race track. Bankers gotta understand movement or get out of banking.


Quote:
This is not about bookkeeping losses but quite a few trillion dollars of value has been lost and much of it has fled. The Fed itself can be demonstrated as having loaned out $1.077 trillion dollars to someone. They lent most of it to banks. But who did the banks lend it to. Bank lending is actually way up.

Look at these graphs.
www.minneapolisfed.org/research/WP/WP666.pdf


The Banks are loaning . It is just that they are not loaning to the real economy outside the financial system. The answer is obvious and multifaceted. I got out of CD's and into energy producers. Millions have done what I have done. Huge mid level balance business demand deposits that are not FDIC insured have fled to Treasuries. Think the Indymac scare. In the meantime, huge values have left the shadow banking system like money market funds and insurance company CD's. All these people lent the money very long into things like CDO's that they thought they could sell if money left them. Now they cannot sell the CDO and have the money available when people cash out to go elsewhere. The banks are lending to prevent shadow money system collapse. So far, those investments have forced Fed to lend back the money that left the system to cover the illiquidity of not being able to sell assets they counted on. One huge round robin is going on. If not, using overnight money would not work for as long as it has.

They will need permanent money now because money has been permanently lost by the big sources of funds for the shadow system.

This is exactly what happened , in principle, during the Trust Company panic of 1907. The banks were forced to cover for the hated Trust Companies by the hard nosed intervention of JP Morgan. We have no J P Morgan just greedy yuppies from the lower classes with an attitude. There is no financial Don. A guy like JPM could have nipped this in late June 2007 when managers tried to dump those Bear Stearns SIV assets. One phone call could have don it. In the case of JPM a refusal meant ostrasized from big deals for life. Everyone knew he was to accomodated at the end of the arguement.

I see the kiting as being made semi permanent or it all caves in and soon.

navigatorc

Chart wie bei einer faulen Bank, ist aber ein Frachtschiff-Unternehmen. Andere Schiffs-Logistiker wie DSX und EGLE sehen kaum besser aus.

www.dryships.com/

Wenn ich mir überlege, welche realwirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen 9/11 gehabt hat und das mit der aktuellen Situation vergleiche, dann sehe ich fundamentale Unterschiede. 9/11 war ein extern induzierter Schock, aber keine Systemkrise. Nunmehr hat der Konsument (Unternehmer wie Privater) cerebral einen Systemschock zu verarbeiten. Die aktuelle Finanzkrise hat hinsichtlich des Vertrauens weitreichendere Auswirkungen. Die Unternehmer haben neben dem konjunturellen Problem ein finanzierungsproblem ihrer Kunden zu verarbeiten und aufgrund der Nebulosität der näheren zukunft eine Situation, in der viele Geschäftspartner einfach nur abwarten. Keiner möchte den Fehler begehen, zu teuer und zu früh (in der Hoffnung auf eine ende der Krise) zu kaufen. Der Endverbraucher hat dies Realisierungspahse noch vor sich. Er wird es dann begreifen, wenn das Problem bei ihm angekommen ist. Wenn es seinen Job verliert! Diese Situation ist mit 9/11 nicht vergleichbar. So ist ausgeprägter, weil fundamentaler. Wir stehen in den Indices viel zu hoch!

AP

Panel says US has been in recession since Dec. '07

Monday December 1, 12:49 pm ET
By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer  

National Bureau of Economic Research panel says US recession began in December 2007

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The U.S. economy has been in a recession since December 2007, the National Bureau of Economic Research said Monday.

The NBER -- a private, nonprofit research organization -- said its group of academic economists who determine business cycles met and decided that the U.S. recession began last December.

The White House commented on the news that a second downturn has officially begun on President George W. Bush's watch without ever actually using the word "recession," a term the president and his aides have repeatedly avoided. Instead, spokesman Tony Fratto remarked upon the fact that NBER "determines the start and end dates of business cycles."

"What's important is what is being done about it," Fratto said. "The most important things we can do for the economy right now are to return the financial and credit markets to normal, and to continue to make progress in housing, and that's where we'll continue to focus."

Many economists believe the current downturn will last until the middle of 2009, and will be the most severe slump since the 1981-82 recession.

By one benchmark, a recession occurs whenever the gross domestic product, the total output of goods and services, declines for two consecutive quarters. However, the NBER's dating committee uses broader and more precise measures.

The GDP did contract by 0.2 percent at an annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2007. However, that drop was followed by a 0.9 percent rate of increase in the first quarter and a 2.8 percent spurt in the second quarter, when the economy was boosted by the distribution of millions of economic stimulus payments.

However, employment, one of the measurements tracked by the NBER, has been falling since January.

The GDP turned negative again in the July-September quarter of this year, falling at an annual rate of 0.5 percent. Many economists believe the GDP is falling in the current quarter at an even sharper rate of 4 percent, and that the economy won't begin to rebound until late 2009.

In a news release, the NBER said its cycle dating committee held a telephone conference call on Friday and made the determination on when the recession began. Founded in 1920, the NBER has more than 1,000 university professors and researchers who act as bureau associates, studying how the economy works

The NBER decision means that the economic expansion lasted from November 2001 until December 2007. Economic expansions peak and recessions begin in the same month, according to the NBER's dating methods.

The decision on the recession means that during the eight years that Bush has been in office, the country has seen two recessions. The first downturn lasted from March 2001 until November of that year.

---

Na, dann sollten wir es ja bald geschafft haben. Noch 3 Jahre und es geht wieder aufwärts.

 

• Fed Chairman Bernanke: More Interest Rate Cuts "Certainly Feasible" (story developing)

 

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke in Texas

 

der RSI steigt aus dem Sumpf, in dem der MACD noch steckt, aber ein kleiner Lichtblick für einen Jahresendspurt.

There is no doubt that time will be the greatest healer, but there is a strong argument for putting the financial system through a methadone-clinic-style rehabilitation as opposed to the “cold sweats” rehab that we face. The US government appears to feel the same, which is why various versions of direct government lending and quasi- as well as real bail-outs have been announced. Certainly, credit was extended to unworthy borrowers, but the baby is now being thrown out with the bath water. I expect more broad-based credit contractions but, specifically, more than $2,000bn in credit lines to be cut in reaction to risk aversion, constrained capital and regulatory change.

Here are some easily adoptable changes that would make a difference.

First, re-regionalise lending. Since the early 1990s, key bank products, mortgages and credit card lending were rapidly consolidated nationally. Banking went from “knowing your customer” or local lending, to relying on what have proven to be unreliable FICO credit scores and centralised underwriting. The government should now motivate local lenders (many of which have clean balance sheets) to re-widen their product offering to include credit cards and encourage the mega banks to provide servicing and processing facilities to banks that sold off these capabilities years ago.

Second, expand the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s guarantee for bank debt. Banks need to know they can access reasonably priced credit for an extended period to continue to extend new credit lines. Any semi-conscious bank management team knows that capital and liquidity are precious and therefore is hoarding both.

Third, delay the introduction of accounting rule FAS 140 until 2011 or 2012. These moves to bring off-balance-sheet assets back on balance sheet for the sake of transparency are a mirage. The primary assets that will come back on to balance sheets are credit card loans. Frankly, there is more transparency in off-balance-sheet master trust data than in on-balance-sheet accrual accounting. Banks cannot afford it now and it will further constrain credit.

Fourth, amend the proposal on Unfair and Deceptive Lending Practices that is set to be adopted in 2010. The proposal includes one major change that will lead to a severe unintended consequence – pulling credit from consumers. Restricting lenders’ ability to reprice an unsecured loan will cause them to stop lending or to lend less. This change could cut over $2,000bn in unused credit card lines, or over 40 per cent of unused credit lines. With so many Americans relying on their credit cards as a major source of liquidity, it would be equivalent to a major pay cut.

This is no time for partisanship. The situation is too dire. These changes are ones I would never have imagined endorsing a year ago, but these are extraordinary times.

The writer is managing director of Oppenheimer & Co    www.ft.com

kaufen.

www.bloomberg.com/apps/...20601087&sid=alejHqvRg.O8&refer=home
Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) -- In the best year for Treasuries since 2002, fund managers who only buy government bonds are seeking permission to invest in corporate debt they considered toxic just a month ago.

Treasuries “are yielding next to nothing,” said Robert Millikan, who manages $5 billion at BB&T Asset Management in Raleigh, North Carolina, including the $51 million BB&T Short U.S. Government Fund. “Trying to do something for your shareholders, it’s hard to sit there and buy a bond that yields less than any fees you charge.”

While U.S. government debt returned 10.1 percent on average this year, the most since 11.6 percent in all of 2002, Merrill Lynch & Co. index data show, yields dropped so low that fund managers have little chance of offering anything but subpar returns in 2009. Yields on two- and 10-year notes, as well as 30-year bonds fell to record lows today.

That helps explain why BB&T, BlackRock Inc., T. Rowe Price Group Inc. and Sage Advisory Services Ltd. are looking elsewhere for returns, including bonds of the banks that were almost ruined by $967 billion in losses and writedowns since the start of 2007. Treasury funds are receiving permission to buy debt of Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. after the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. finalized plans on Nov. 21 to guarantee their debt.

The FDIC program announced on Oct. 14 is part of the more than $1.5 trillion in unprecedented financing from the Treasury and the Federal Reserve to end the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. The U.S. now guarantees more than $13 trillion of debt.
Goldman, which registered as a bank in September after 139 years as a securities firm, became the first U.S. company to take advantage of the program, selling $5 billion of 3.25 percent FDIC-backed notes on Nov. 25. The debt, which matures June 2012, was priced to yield two percentage points more than Treasuries of similar maturity. Before the government announced the guarantees, New York-based Goldman’s 6.15 percent bonds due 2018 yielded about five percentage points more than government debt.

Morgan Stanley, which also became a bank on Sept. 21, sold $5.75 billion in FDIC-backed debt in three series, including $2.5 billion of three-year, 3.25 percent notes at a spread of 186 basis points. As recently as Oct. 13, the New York-based company’s notes yielded more than six percentage points more than Treasuries.....
Two-year note yields fell 11 basis points last week to 1 percent as reports showed gross domestic product shrunk 0.5 percent in the third quarter and Americans cut spending by 1 percent in October, the biggest drop since the last recession in 2001. The price of the 1.25 percent security due November 2010 rose 6/32, or $1.88 per $1,000 face value, to 100 16/32 since being auctioned on Nov. 24, according to BGCantor Market Data.

The yield fell five basis points to a record low of 0.9251 percent at 10:25 a.m. in New York.

“There are plenty of cheap quasi government-guaranteed alternatives to Treasuries,” said Stuart Spodek, co-head of U.S. bonds in New York at BlackRock, which manages $502 billion in debt. “So why buy a two-year note?”

Barely Above Fees

The hunt for alternatives to government debt may become more acute because the Fed is likely to cut interest rates to less than 1 percent this month.

Futures traded on the Chicago Board of Trade show a 76 percent chance Fed policy makers will cut the 1 percent target rate for overnight loans between banks by 50 basis points at their Dec. 16 meeting. All other bets are for a reduction of 75 basis points, or 0.75 percentage point.

If the federal funds rate falls to 0.5 percent and two-year Treasury note yields follow, investors would realize an annualized return of 1.5 percent, according to Bloomberg data. That would barely cover the 0.66 percent expenses charged by Millikan’s fund.

JPMorgan Forecast

Yields will decline in 2009 as the Fed lowers its key rate to zero from 1 percent, JPMorgan Chase & Co. wrote in a report on Nov. 28. Two-year yields will fall to 0.6 percent by June 30 while 10-year yields tumble to 2 percent, JPMorgan said.

The FDIC guarantees opened credit markets for banks shut out of long-term financing alternatives. Yields on investment- grade financial debt rose more than 5 percentage points this year to a near-record high of 7.28 percentage points above Treasuries, according to Merrill Lynch index data. Investment- grade bonds are debt rated Baa or above by Moody’s Investors Service or BBB or above by Standard & Poor’s.

As much as $600 billion of the FDIC-backed bonds may be issued by the time the program ends in June, according to Barclays Plc. Such sales already total $17.25 billion.
That’s on top of $1.7 trillion of securities sold by government-chartered mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae in Washington and Freddie Mac of McLean, Virginia, $1.3 trillion of bonds from the 12 Federal Home Loan Banks and almost $5 billion in agency mortgage securities
....There’s little chance that demand for Treasuries will slacken as investors seek a haven from riskier assets, said Ian Lyngen, an interest-rate strategist in Greenwich, Connecticut, at RBS Greenwich Capital. The firm is one of the 17 primary dealers of U.S. government securities that trade with the Fed and are obligated to bid at the Treasury’s auctions.

‘Marginal Impact’

FDIC-backed bank debt “will have a marginal impact, if any,” said Lyngen, who expects two-year Treasury yields to decline to 0.85 percent in the first quarter. “It’s a bit of a toss up given that the bulk of the move has been a flight to quality.”

The FDIC program follows more than a dozen government programs to unlock credit that will be paid in part with Treasuries. Gross issuance in the $5.7 trillion Treasury market will increase to about $1.2 trillion in fiscal 2009, which started on Oct. 1, from $724 billion last year, according to Credit Suisse Group AG, another primary dealer.....

optionarmageddon.ml-implode.com/2008/12/01/...earned/#more-659
...Lesson #1:  A key factor precipitating the current financial crisis was the low interest rate policy pursued by Alan Greenspan earlier this decade.  That caused investment managers to seek higher returns in riskier investments like CDOs and other toxic debt securities....this report from Bloomberg shows some investment managers have learned nothing.  They are once again putting investor money at risk in order to squeeze out just enough yield to offer a competitive return after their own fees.

Not so, these managers would argue. This debt is backed by the FDIC, so it is just as safe as Treasuries.  I wonder how many of them have actually stopped to look at the FDIC’s balance sheet, which now has somewhere south of $40 billion in reserve to protect the nation’s entire deposit base.  That was only 1% of all insured deposits BEFORE deposit insurance limits were raised to $250k from $100k.  To this they might respond that the FDIC wouldn’t be left hanging by Treasury if it needs additional funds.

Fine.  And where does Treasury get the funds it will need to back the entire financial system when it implodes under the weight of old financial bets gone bad?  That is, effectively, what Treasury and the Fed have done over the past year: written an implicit guarantee protecting the vast majority of private debt securities.

And this brings us to the second lesson that hasn’t been learned…

Lesson #2: Government insurance perverts economic incentives, encouraging risky behavior that blows up in taxpayers’ faces. The S&L scandal is the prime example.  Reagan deregulated the interest rates S&L’s were allowed to pay on deposits without putting strict controls on the use of those deposits. ....
And this brings us back to lesson #1 above. When risk is under-priced because interest rates are held artificially low, dumb investors underwrite bad bets. These investors should, of course, lose when their investments go sour.

But the sheer scale of the bad bets made recently are so large that if they were allowed to go bad, the global financial system would implode.  The government’s choice, then, is to repeat the same mistakes, only this time on a much grander scale.

Bernanke is lowering interest rates to avoid deflation, which encourages savers to seek higher yield by investing in riskier paper.  Compounding the problem, the Feds insure all of it, removing any incentive for investors and investment managers to carefully consider risks.

The endgame is easy to forecast.  As with the S&L scandal, investors will continue to pour money down a hole, losing huge sums of money in the process.  Because their investments are federally-insured, taxpayers will be left holding the bag.

Fonds müssen Zahlungen an Rentner stoppen

von Richard Haimann (Hamburg)

 

Die Krise bei den offenen Immobilienfonds bringt mehrere Zehntausend deutsche Rentner in finanzielle Schwierigkeiten. Nach FTD-Informationen hat die Finanzaufsicht BaFin elf große Publikumsfonds aufgefordert, die sogenannten Auszahlungspläne für meist ältere Kunden zu stoppen.

 

Betroffen sind vor allem frühere Selbstständige und Freiberufler, die häufig kein Geld aus der gesetzlichen Rentenkasse erhalten. Die elf Fonds von Anbietern wie Credit Suisse, UBS, Kan Am oder Degi waren im Oktober geschlossen worden, nachdem Anleger ihre Anteile panikartig abgezogen hatten. Jedoch wollten die Gesellschaften Fondssparer mit Auszahlungsplänen von der Sperrung ausnehmen - schließlich sind diese Rückflüsse langfristig vereinbart. Die BaFin moniert nun, dass dieses Privileg "mit dem Gleichbehandlungsgrundsatz aller Anleger nicht vereinbar" sei, so eine Sprecherin.

Weiter unter www.ftd.de/unternehmen/finanzdienstleister/...ner-stoppen/446100.html

Nachdem die Amerikaner ihren Thanksgiving-Truthahn verdaut haben (anscheinend mti heftigen Blähungen), scheint es auch mit der guten Stimmung wieder vorbei zu sein. Und wenn an der Wall Street der Pessimismus die Oberhand gewinnt, dann vergeht auch den deutschen Börsianern die Kauflust.

Ohnehin waren während der Kursgewinne der letzten Woche die Umsätze relativ dünn. Für eine nachhaltige Kursrallye bräuchte es jedoch wachsendes Kaufinteresse und steigende Umsätze.

 

Wenn man den Bock zum Gärtner macht... Ich liebe diesen Paulson - gerade spricht er auf CNBC. Ein Szenario Keynes, wie hier propagiert wird dürfte kaum Früchte tragen. Es wird vielmehr zu einer weiteren Verschuldung der US-Privathaushalte führen und was das bedeutet, muss ich in diesem Thread nicht erläutern. 

 

 

Grund des erneuten Verkaufsdrucks ist mMn die Erkenntnis, dass trotz der Zinssenkungen durch die Notenbanken und der Konjunkturprogramme der Regierungen der Weg aus der Rezession lange und steinig sein wird. Länger und steiniger, als anscheinend manche derzeit immer noch hoffen. Deutliches Indiz dafür ist, dass immer mehr Unternehmen über eine sinkende Nachfrage berichten und daher Sparprogramme/Entlassungen/Kapazitätsanpassungen ankündigen. Welche Dimensionen der gesamtwirtschaftliche Nachfrageeinbruch hat, zeigt sich z.B. daran, dass Daimler die Fertigung von LKWs deutlich einschränkt.  

Konjunktur? Es lohnt sich derzeit fast nicht, die Konjunkturindikatoren im Einzelnen unter die Lupe zu nehmen: Sie sind durch die Bank weg einfach schlecht!

DAX fiel erneut unter die Unterstützung bei 4.500/4.600 Punkten zurück. In den nächsten Tagen muss sich entscheiden, ob sich die Bodenbildung fortsetzt oder gar ein Fall unter die Unterstützung bei 4.000 Punkten droht.

Short-Kandidaten: SAP, Deutsche Post und Neu-DAX-Mitglieder Beiersdorf und Salzgitter.

 

... an

also das muss ich noch los werden:

Auf CNBC, Aussage der Kommentatorin: now it is clear that USA entered recession in December 2007. This is a good sign, then this means, the recession will soon come to the end....... ;-))

also mehr Kino geht nicht!  

THORNBURG MTG LATE-SHARES HALTED; LAST TRADE AT 39 CENTS

missed payments...

Nach dem Auftragseinbruch im Oktober erwarten Experten und Unternehmer auch für 2009 weitere Rückschläge. "Der Auftragseingang ist sehr schlecht, und damit wird der Umsatz 2009 auch sehr schlecht ausfallen", sagte Alexander Malkwitz, Experte der Beratungsgesellschaft A.T. Kearney, nach Gesprächen mit Unternehmern aus der Metallbranche. Der Umsatzrückgang werde in einigen Feldern deutlich ausfallen.

Vom schwarzen Oktober getroffen wurde auch die Klöckner-Werke AG, eine Tochter des Dax-Aufstiegskandidaten Salzgitter. In diesem Monat habe sich das Geschäft wie noch nie zuvor abgekühlt, sagte Vorstandschef Roland Flach dem Handelsblatt. Er senkte daher gestern den Ausblick für das gesamte Jahr. "In den vergangenen Wochen sind die Bestellungen bereits gefallen; das trifft uns wie auch andere Unternehmen." Statt eines operativen Gewinns auf dem Vorjahresniveau von 52,4 Mio. Euro erwartet Flach nun einen Rückgang.

Mit einer Prognose für seine Gesellschaft hielt er sich zurück, mahnte aber: "2009 wird für die Branche der Maschinenbauer ein schwieriges Jahr." Der Abschwung im mittelständisch geprägten Maschinenbau spiegelt sich in der Auftragslage für den Oktober wider. Nach Angaben des Branchenverbands VDMA bestellten die Kunden 16 Prozent weniger Maschinen und Anlagen bei den Herstellern, wobei vor allem die Nachfrage aus dem Ausland sank. "Solch einen Rückgang haben wir zuletzt im Jahr 2002 gesehen", sagte VDMA-Chefvolkswirt Ralph Wiechers gestern.

Für die Misere in der deutschen Schlüsselbranche machte er die Krise an den Finanzmärkten verantwortlich, die für eine Verunsicherung bei den Kunden gesorgt habe. Das Vertrauen in die Märkte müsse wieder hergestellt werden, damit die Branche wieder in ruhigeres Fahrwasser komme. Einer Umfrage der DZ-Bank zufolge rechnet knapp jeder dritte Mittelständler aus der Metallbranche mit einer Verschlechterung seines Geschäfts über die kommenden sechs Monate. So kommt es zu der außergewöhnlichen Situation, dass der Mittelstand zwar noch gute Umsätze vermeldet, jedoch außergewöhnlich schlechte Geschäfte erwartet. "Noch nie seit Bestehen unserer Umfrage wurden die Geschäftsaussichten so pessimistisch eingeschätzt, und noch nie klafften Lagebeurteilung und Erwartungen so weit auseinander", sagte der Chefvolkswirt der DZ-Bank, Hans Jäckel.

Ein wesentlicher Grund für den Nachfragerückgang ist demnach, dass die Kunden auf Neubestellungen verzichten und ihre Lagerbestände nutzen. Damit schonen sie ihre Bilanz und vermeiden mögliche Abschreibungen. Dennoch gefährdet die Dynamik des Absturzes den Bestand vieler Firmen. Der Wirtschaftsverband Stahl- und Metallverarbeitung und die Industrie- und Handelskammern in NRW sprachen in einem gemeinsamen Appell von einem "dramatischen Nachfragerückgang in kürzester Zeit".

Der Geschäftseinbruch im Maschinenbau hat auch Vorzeigeunternehmen wie Trumpf im schwäbischen Ditzingen bei Stuttgart erwischt. Der Weltmarktführer bei Laserwerkzeugmaschinen erwartet nach jahrelangen Umsatzrekorden einen "spürbaren Umsatzrückgang", wie ein Sprecher sagte. Und die Lage spitzt sich weiter zu. "Der November war schlecht." Nach Einschätzung von Branchenkennern dürfte damit der Rückgang im November deutlich über zehn Prozent gelegen haben. Trumpf reagiert und unterbricht die Produktion vom 22. Dezember bis zum 6. Januar. Die Beschäftigten verfügen nach dem Boom der vergangenen Jahre noch über prall gefüllte Arbeitszeitkonten.

Theoretisch könnte Trumpf so die Produktion sogar zwei Monate ruhenlassen. Zykluserprobte Unternehmen wie Trumpf können Umsatzeinbußen von bis zu 20 Prozent ohne Entlassungen abfangen. Aber gegen eine lang anhaltende Rezession ist auch Trumpf nicht immun.

Atemberaubende Talfahrt

Schlüsselbranche: Die weltweite Wirtschaftskrise hat den deutschen Maschinenbauern den stärksten Auftragseinbruch seit sechs Jahren beschert. In rasantem Tempo brachen im Oktober die Orders gerade der ausländischen Kunden weg. Insgesamt verbuchte die Schlüsselbranche im Vergleich zum Vorjahr 16 Prozent weniger Aufträge.

International: Die Konjunkturschwäche zwingt die Industrie weltweit mit atemberaubender Geschwindigkeit in die Knie. In den USA fiel das wichtigste Firmenbarometer auf 27,9 Punkte - der tiefste Stand seit 1980.

Handelsblatt

 

4:16 Schwarzenegger declares fiscal emergency in Calif.: report

ja, leider scheint Wahres dabei zu sein. Selbst wenn einer hier ein paar Gewinne mitnimmt, es handelt sich um ganze Wirtschaftssektoren/-regionen die nachhaltig geschädigt werden können. Hoffentlich kommt nicht das aller Schlimmste Szenario der wirtschaftlichen (dann auch der psychologischen) Depression.  

erwartet man die längste Rezession in der Geschichte des Landes. Die Deflation kehrt dort mit voller Wucht zurück und gleichzeitig gibt es Kreditengpässe ( www.faz.net/s/...2EB5B3986894BA5BB6~ATpl~Ecommon~Scontent.html target="_new" rel="nofollow">www.faz,net ). In den USA wird der Konsumentenstreik immer offensichtlicher. Noch so viele statistische Tricks können es nicht mehr zudecken. Im 4. Quartal wird das Wirtschaftswachstum einen neuen Allzeitrekord hinlegen, einen negativen. In Europa geht es zügig bergab. In China erwarte ich nächstes Jahr starke politische Unruhen. Es wäre ein riesiges Wunder, wenn wir durch diesen Schlamassel schnell durch kämen. Eine große Depression kann man leider nicht ausschließen. Im Sinne von immer neuen Rekorden gehört die von 29 geschlagen. Es ist eben ein großer Irrtum, dass die Monetaristen  alles zurecht biegen könnten. In Wirklichkeit sind sie ganz kleine Wichte und sie verstehen inzwischen die Welt und ihre Aktionen selbst nicht mehr.

Unfortunately the action today makes it clear that last week's rally was nothing more than a typical countertrend bear market move. We went up on declining volume in very vulnerable fashion, and then when we gapped down this morning, the selling pressure remained steady all day and accelerated into the close. Unfortunately, our financial leaders didn't help matters with more speeches today, which merely emphasized that they are still scrambling to come up with some solutions for massive problems.

The bottom line is that we remain in the grips of an ugly bear market. We need to respect that fact and protect our capital above all else. If we do that, we'll eventually have some good opportunities to make money on the long side, but for now, just stay out of the way.

.

"Pilgrim's Pride" ist allerdings nur ne Chicken-Bude.

www.marketwatch.com/news/story/...4B%7D&tool=1&dist=bigcharts&

Beim nächsten "Hurricane" dürfte dieser Gipfel-Wipfel, dessen Kernsubstanz erkennbar "krank" ist, gekappt werden. Die "Saftleitungen" sind schon unterbrochen (Gap-Folge). In der Geschichte der Langläufer bei den Staatsanleihen gehörten die der Schweiz - als weltweit anerkannter "Hort der Sicherheit" mit echtem Triple-A - stets zu den teuersten. Der höchste Preis, der je für 30jährige bezahlt wurde, lag bei rd. 124. Dies war bislang der globale Spitzenpreis für eine Staatsanleihe.

Dieser "Baum" dürfte wohl zum "Baum der Erkenntnis" werden. Und diese Erkenntnis wird mE sehr schmerzhaft sein.

wird sich als "Phallus der Ignoranz" entlarven.  

Die USA sind pro Kopf der Bevölkerung der größte Schuldner unter den Industrieländern, mit Abstand gefolgt von Japan. Doch seltsamerweise war die Bank of Japan in den letzten Jahren gleichzeitig der zweitgrößte Kreditgeber der USA. Der zweitgrößte Schuldner stützt den größten massiv, der Blinde hilft dem Lahmen - ein Treppenwitz der Geschichte.

Übrigens: Die Japaner stehen den hedonischen Statistikern der USA kaum nach. Wenn die nunmehr auf das Szenario abheben, das Malko unter # 34270 gepostet hat, muss es tatsächlich in Japan schon katastrophal aussehen. Mit Japan und den USA werden den Chinesen zwei der wichtigsten Exportmärkte wegbrechen, und der EU-Raum dürfte mit Sicherheit folgen.

Dem Ausrufen des finanziellen Notstands in Kalifornien (siehe # 34268!) dürften in kurzen Abständen wenigstens weitere zwölf Staaten folgen. Vierzehn der zwanzig größten Metropolitan Areas stehen mittlerweile vor dem finanziellen Abgrund.