Der USA Bären-Thread

 

President Obama laid out his agenda on aggressively cutting spending and measures on to grow the economy in his State of the Union Tuesday night.

The President praised the American worker and delivered these encouraging words," We know what it takes to compete for the jobs and industries of our time. We need to out-innovate, out-educate, and out-build the rest of the world." But what's price tag attached to this?

I decided to ask that question to Pete Sepp, Executive Vice President of the moderate, conservative group, the National Taxpayers Union who did a line by line cost analysis on how much the proposals included in this address would cost the American Taxpayer.

The National Taxpayers Union Foundation, (NTUF) the research affiliate of the National Taxpayers Union, broke down the numbers exclusively for C-Suite Insider. The NTUF uses the accounting database called BillTally, which reports the “net annual agenda cost” for each Member of Congress based on sponsorships and cosponsorships of pending legislation. The NTUF matched Obama’s State of the Union proposals with those in the BillTally system in White House documents and other third-party sources.  

(Read full text of the breakdown)

LL: The President is calling for fiscal reform, how much will the President's proposals cost the taxpayer?

PS: After reviewing line by line the total we calculated was $21.349 billion dollars.

LL: Based on your line by line analysis, how many proposals will boost spending?

PS: What I can tell you is out of the 15 proposals, five will increase spending, three will decrease it, and seven has indeterminate impacts. The single largest item Obama mentioned was increased “investment” in transportation infrastructure, which could amount to $50 billion in additional outlays. Other large initiatives included $1.35 billion in possible higher spending for the “Race to the Top” educational program. Some elements he offered last year such as the extension of a domestic discretionary spending freeze ($15.0 billion) and medical tort reform ($2.06 billion) could yield budgetary reductions for taxpayers.

LL: How many of these programs have a positive impact on job creation?

 

PS: Based on the overinflated expectations and underwhelming results of the stimulus package, it's highly unlikely that the new spending will have a long-term job creation benefit. Some of the cost-saving proposals, however, might help to stabilize federal finances and with it an economy that might be able nurse itself back to health.

The real job-creation potential is on the tax side, but here again the President is sending mixed messages. If done right, corporate tax reform has tremendous stimulus potential by unlocking tens of billions of dollars wasted on tax-filing costs, all of it without borrowing more money. On the other hand, his call for raising taxes on many small and medium-sized businesses in the top brackets could wipe out some or all of those job gains. This is made all the worse by the White House's continued attacks on energy producers, who would once again be punished by discriminatory tax hikes.

LL: Energy was also touched in the address. What are you expecting to see unfold as the budget is delivered?

PS: We're likely to see a contrast in the Administration's approach to energy policy (punish oil and gas with huge tax hikes, subsidize alternatives) compared to the House's (more market-based mechanisms. Look for major showdowns between both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue on this issue

LL: Based on your analysis, do any of the proposals delivered in the State of the Union- would they outweigh any savings on the freezing-cutting measures might provide?

PS: That $21 billion includes both the increase and decreases. But in the end, it is still a $21 billion dollar increase. We do include the freeze proposal in the numbers which translates into $15 billion dollars in savings a year.

To explain the spending freeze: the Administration is claiming $400 billion total in savings over ten years by first having frozen spending and then keeping it in place longer. We are counting the extension only as new savings, scoring it in a ten-year window, and then annualizing it. One interesting point the President made in the address was the remark he made about the defense cuts.

The savings is actually larger than what he said. The cuts save $15.6 billion. That shows you right there if you don't look at military spending as well, you won't get a good deficit reduction number. You need to look at defense spending as well.

LL: The NTUF has been tracking Presidential addresses since 1999. Which President has had the lowest track record?

PS: The lowest recorded total was President George W. Bush’s address in 2006, which came in at under $1 billion in new spending; the highest was President Clinton’s 1999 speech, which proposed $305 billion in new outlays. Bush’s first State of the Union speech, in 2002, racked up $106 billion in higher expenditures.

LL: Normally does the analysis of the Address and the reality of what happens hold true in terms of what is spent? Is the total tax dollars spent normally more or less?

PS: The trend among spending-increase proposals has been difficult to peg. During the first few years of our study, Bill Clinton rarely saw wholesale enactment of the laundry lists he recited to Congress. George W. Bush's spending-hike plans met with somewhat more success in the early part of his term, especially the spending was military and homeland-security related.

President Obama received some of the additional spending he wanted, but the major defeat for him was the failure of cap-and-trade, which would have meant more than $50 billion in higher expenditures. The trend for spending cuts has been somewhat easier to track—narrow interests among both parties in Congress often succeed in concentrating their pressure on just right points of the legislative process to thwart much of the savings Presidents propose. To give just one example, tort reform, which Obama mentioned last night, was a regular fixture of Bush's agenda.

LL: What did you think of the GOP response?

PS: There were certainly a lot more specifics in the GOP Response but there still remains a lot of open-ended questions on how aggressive the House will pursue defense reductions and are they willing to do entitlement changes. We saw that in the response which was encouraging but the real debate will come in two weeks when the budget comes out.

From what I have been told, the House budget document which will be released sometime after the President's, will be the most detailed and give an honest look at the accounting of the deficit problem as well as provide solutions.

It will be the most detailed budget coming out of the House in years. Taxpayers need to look beyond the words and look at the numbers when the White House releases its budget blueprint in a couple of weeks.

Rev Shark, steet.com CC

Inflation

1/26/2011 3:08 PM EST

Speaking of inflation this is from the WSJ this morning:

"Over the past 30 years, the federal government has made a lot of changes to the way it calculates inflation. It's taken place under presidents of both parties. Each change in methodology has come with plausible-sounding justifications. But, as if by magic, each change has had the effect of flattering the numbers. Funny, that.

According to one rogue economist, John Williams at Shadow Government Statistics, if we still calculated inflation the way we did when Jimmy Carter was president, the official inflation figures would look about as bad as they did when ... Jimmy Carter was president. According to Mr. Williams's calculations, if we counted inflation under the old system the official rate wouldn't be 1.5%. It would be closer to 10%. "

Ich sagte ja ich habe ne andere Strategie. Ich bin einfach der Meinung das hier mal ein guter Punkt ist für ein Short.

vielleicht noch etwas früh, wart doch mal ob er am Trend nach oben abprallt

30min

Das Problem ist zu Wissen, wann es die letzten 5% sind. Am Chart der Nasdag sieht man die Anstiege Feb-Mär 2010 und Sept 2010-Heute.

Hätte man den Anstieg von 2009 als Maßstab genommen, hätte man seine eventuelle Longposition viel zu früh geschmissen. Deshalb sollte man eh mit geeigneten Stopstrategien arbeiten, als den Versuch zu unternehmen das Ende eines Anstieges zu kennen.

Viele empfanden diesen Anstieg schon letztes Jahr als ungewöhnlich, da er im Grunde 20% ohne Korrektur stieg.

Der jetztige Anstieg war in der Spitze bei 34% und es ist gut möglich, dass wir auch noch die 40% sehen werden.

Wie Du treffend beschrieben hast ist das eigentlich absurd, aber leider Realität. Irgendwann werden sich auch die fundamentalen Daten in den Kursen zeigen. Wir mussten jedoch aus der Subrimekrise lernen, dass dies Jahre dauern kann.

Seit dem Flashcrash musste man sich in der Tat Gedanken machen, mit welchen Strateien man handelt. Ohnehin sollte man nicht mehr Riskieren, als man Bereit und in der Lage ist zu verlieren.

Street Picks
Kass: New-Home Sales on Weak Foundation
By Doug Kass
RealMoney Silver Contributor
1/26/2011 3:30 PM EST

We are in a market that appears to interpret every statistic positively.

Case in point -- today's housing report, which appears to have been the proximate cause for the upside move in the indices this morning.

Sometimes, such as in this morning's December new-home sales report, the positive interpretation is nothing more than a sound bite from a bullish cabal that incorporates little analysis and overstates the case that a broader based housing recovery is in place.

December new-home sales rose to 329,000, easily beating expectations of 300,000 and compared to 280,000 in November. But the bulk of the rise was in the Western region, increasing by an outsized 71%. By contrast, sales only increased modestly in the South and Midwest. The Northeast's sales actually declined!

During the last few months, the West Coast (California) numbers artificially inflated the national and state housing statistics, owing to the California first-time homebuyer tax credit (Assembly Bill 183), which expired on Dec. 31, 2010 (well after the national credit expired). This California home credit could be used regardless of income and was worth up to 5% of the home's price or $10,000, whichever was less.

I haven't heard a single person in the media or elsewhere focus on the notion that December's new-home sales were inflated by the expiration of the California tax credit.

No one!

This credit likely positively affected September to December new-home sales activity and prices. Since December was the last month of the state tax credit, it probably had a particularly outsized impact on today's sales report.

For example, if you go back to Case-Shiller's October report, home prices in San Francisco, San Diego and L.A. rose by about 3%, though the total country (20-city composite) reported a 0.8% drop in home prices.

But the skew in new- and existing-home sales is even more pronounced (than prices) by the California tax credit.

For example, California single-family new-home sales rose by nearly 40% in November, as nationwide new-home sales increased by only 5%. (The Northeast dropped by 27% that month!) During the same period, existing-home sales in the West rose by 13%, even though the national activity was flat.
 

Federal Reserve policy makers maintained plans to buy $600 billion of Treasuries through June, indicating that signs of an accelerating recovery don’t warrant paring back efforts to reduce high unemployment.

The expansion is “continuing, though at a rate that has been insufficient to bring about a significant improvement in labor market conditions,” the Federal Open Market Committee said today in its statement after a two-day meeting in Washington. Officials were unanimous for the first time since December 2009.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-26/...mulus-on-slow-growth.html

Bis Juni 600 Mrd. zusätzlich in die Zockerei. Kein wunder, daß die Rohstoffe durch die Decke gehen.

A.L. schraub den weg frei :-)

 

Navigator.C

 

January 26, 2011 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE


...“Some retailers said consumers are back in a penny-pinching mood. Since most
winter inventory is on clearance, this type of business did not necessarily
translate into higher margins ... retailers are already moving in Valentine’s Day
and spring merchandise.”

Geez, considering how bullish everyone is, the retailing community sure sounds
a little panicky.

But we’ll tell you someone who isn’t panicky at all. His name is Ben Bernanke.
He runs the nation’s printing press, and he is one cool customer. His nickname
is Helicopter Ben. We’ll call him HB for short.

We just saw in the King Report that HB gave an interview on CNBC last Thursday
when he was queried about the success of QE2, especially since bond yields and
mortgage rates have gone up substantially in recent months. Here was his
response:

“Policies have contributed to a stronger stock market just as they did in March
2009, when we did the last iteration of this. The S&P 500 is up 20%-plus and
the Russell 2000, which is about small cap stocks, is up 30%-plus.”

Well, there you have it. When you have a central bank chief talking about the
virtues of small-cap stocks, you know you really have a pro looking after the
country’s monetary affairs. One has to wonder whether Cramer will end up on
the short list for HB’s replacement when the time comes. So what we have is a
Fed that is now targeting the stock market and engaging in some form of
manipulation to invite the same speculative risky behaviour that has ended so
badly in the past. But make no mistake, HB is spiking the Kool-Aid in a
significant way and it is working for now. So the Bernanke put is really an
extension of the old Greenspan put, but with just a different strike price.

Nowhere did we see HB talk about the other asset price — the one that is going
down — called housing. And how Fed policies that lead to higher as opposed to
lower market rates are responsible for this setback. The Case-Shiller 20-city
index tumbled 0.5% MoM in November, and is down in each of the past five
months — at a 10% annual rate (on a three-month annualized basis), which is
the steepest decline since the green shoots arrived in the spring of 2009.

In a sign of how the renewed price decline is becoming more alarming, consider
that 85% of cities were down in November (on a month-over-month basis) and
all 20 have seen falling prices over the past three months...

FEELING BETTER

Consumers felt better as the new year got underway, according to the latest
Conference Board survey. The overall index came in better than expected in
January, rising to 60.6 from 54.0 in December. ...

If there are any flies in the ointment it was that the increase in the Conference
Board survey was not validated by the University of Michigan Consumer
Confidence survey, which showed a near-two point dip in January. To put the
Conference Board’s January 60.6 reading into context, historically, the average
level during an economic expansion is closer to 100, while during recessionary
periods in the past, the average was below 70. From this standpoint, we still
have a long way to go to get back to expansionary-type readings.

http://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/...an-wieder-sehr-gefragt;2740825

Die schwere Finanzkrise von 2008 hätte vermieden werden können. Zu diesem Schluss kommt eine von US-Präsident Obama eingesetzte Kommission, die heute ihren Bericht vorstellt. Erste Ergebnisse wurden bereits bekannt: Demnach hat nicht nur die Politik massiv versagt, auch die US-Notenbank trägt große Schuld. Und ihre aktuelle Geldpolitik verheißt nichts Gutes.
Untätige Politiker, laxe Finanzaufseher und zockende Banker: Nur durch diese ungesunde Mischung ist es nach Ansicht einer von US-Präsident Barack Obama eingesetzten Kommission zur Finanzkrise gekommen, die schließlich in der schlimmsten Rezession der Nachkriegsgeschichte gipfelte. "Die Krise war ein Ergebnis menschlicher Taten oder Tatenlosigkeit", heißt es in einem Untersuchungsbericht, aus dem die "New York Times" am Mittwoch vorab zitierte. "Es waren nicht Mutter Natur oder durchgeknallte Computermodelle."

Die mit mit Politikern beider großer Parteien besetzte Kommission hat seit 2009 mehr als 700 Zeugen befragt, um herauszufinden, welche Rolle die staatlichen Stellen und privaten Geldhäuser bei den heftigen Turbulenzen auf dem Finanzmarkt vor drei Jahren spielten.
http://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/...sagen-der-us-notenbank;2740841

Starökonom gibt Euro 50 Prozent Überlebenschance

Regierung plant drei Rentenerhöhungen in Folge

Das Geld muss raus. Wählerstimmen müssen gekauft werden. Nun ist es vielleicht richtig den Rentnern nach Jahren des Kaufkraftverlust eine Erhöhung zukommen zu lassen. Jedoch sollte man hier durchaus eine Gegenfinanzierung bei den Beamtenpensionen in Betracht ziehen. Nachdem der Rentner über Jahre geschröpft wurden lebt der Pensionär nach wie vor in Saus und Braus.

Permanent

Ich glaube, dass Herr Roubini das Thema Vertrauen absolut vernachlässigt. Warum sollte es mir als Verbraucher in den Sinn kommen Kredite für Anschaffungen oder Konsum in Anspruch zu nehmen, wenn ich mir auf der anderen Seite ausrechnen kann, dass ich in Zukunft immer mehr Steuern und Abgaben leisten soll.

Immer mehr Schulden sind der absolut falsche Weg. Schafft es der Staat nicht seine Finanzen spürbar in den Griff zu bekommen wird das Misstrauen in die Zukunft wachsen. Zu Recht!

LONDON (dpa-AFX) - Die Ratingagentur Standard & Poor's hat die Kreditwürdigkeit Japans wegen der hohen Verschuldung um eine Note gesenkt. Nach zuvor "AA" sei die neue Bewertung auf "AA-" zurückgenommen worden, hieß es in einer am Donnerstag veröffentlichten Studie. Der Ausblick für Japan sei stabil. Die Ratingagentur erwartet in den kommenden Jahren einen weiteren Anstieg der japanischen Staatsverschuldung.

www.finanzen.net/nachricht/aktien/...hohe-Verschuldung-1020509

Die 2011-Prognose im ersten Artikel unten, erschienen um die Jahreswende, ist interessant genug, um sie auch jetzt noch zu posten - zumal sich einige der Vorhersagen bereits bewahrheitet haben.

Es handelt sich gemäß Autor Roger Arnold von street.com/Real Money um eine "realistische" Langzeit-Prognose. Arnold ist, wie Rosenberg, ein Deflations-Bär und bedient sich ausgiebiger Fundi-Analyse - ergänzt um ein Model namens Coppock Curve, das in der Vergangenheit eine recht gute Trefferquote aufwies. Gestern veröffentlichte Arnold einen zweiten Artikel, in dem er Coppick-Methodik detailierter vorstellte. Den zweiten Artikel poste ich am Ende.

Die Coppock Curve basiert auf Investoren-Stimmung und versucht, die langfristige Markttendenz zu erfassen. Sie erreichte in der Vergangenheit Werte zwischen +200 (sehr bullisch) und -200 (sehr bärisch). Hinzu kamen drei bärische Extreme von -400 in den Jahren 1932, 1938 und 2009.

In Anbetracht der sich aktuell verbessernden Makro-Lage und anziehenden Konsumentenvertrauens in USA (das freilich von extrem tiefen Werten her erst langsam hoch kommt) sollte man meinen, das tendenziell prozyklische Coppock Model würde jetzt einen neuen Bullenmarkt signalisieren. Das würde sich dann mit der aktuell fast ausnahmslos bullischen Konsensmeinung decken.

Tatsächlich jedoch ist die Coppock Curve weltweit "auf dem absteigenden Ast" und hat in einigen Ländern gerade die Null-Linie nach unten gekreuzt, was langfristig bärische Stimmung signalisiert. Dies spricht gegen einen "neuen Bullenmarkt", wie ihn Bubblevision und Co., Wall Street sowie Bernanke unermüdlich verheißen.

Arnold ist auch langfristig bärisch bzgl. Gold und sagt einen Preisrückgang auf 500 Dollar voraus, was ab dem Top bei 1400 Dollar einem drastischen Absturz um 65 % entspräche. 2011 soll Gold zunächst in die Preiszone zwischen 800 und 1000 Dollar fallen.

Mir selber ist aufgefallen, dass im Zuge der Finanzkrise ab Herbst 2008 der Goldpreis oft "Punkt für Punkt" mit dem SP-500-Stand korrespondierte. Im Sommer 2009 stand der SPX bei 900 bis 1000, Gold notierte ebenfalls knapp unter 1000 Dollar. Im Spätherbst 2010 erreichte Gold seinen bisherigen Rekord bei 1400 Dollar, während der SPX 1200 überwand und sich aktuell auf 1300 vorarbeitet. Gold ist inzwischen wieder auf dem absteigenden Ast und notiert knapp über 1300, so dass aktuell wieder annähernd "Punkte-Parität" herrscht. Sollte Arnold Recht behalten und Gold in 2011 auf 800 bis 1000 Dollar fallen, würde - bei weiterem Gleichlauf - auch der SP-500 wieder in den  Bereich zwischen 800 und 1000 zurückfallen. Fundamental handelt es sich bei dieser Parallelität mMn um ein synchrones Aufblasen unterschiedlicher Assetklassen (Gold und Aktien). Da der Bläheffekt auf alle Assetklassen gleich wirkt, ergibt sich eben auch (womöglich zufällig) der von mir beobachtete Punkte-Gleichlauf.
 

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Market Commentary
A Realist's Outlook for 2011
By Roger Arnold
Street.com Contributor
12/30/2010 7:00 AM EST

It's that time of year. So here's a rundown of what I'm watching for and expecting in 2011.

Housing and the Economy

As for the nascent private-sector global economic recovery, my principal area of concern is the state of housing in the U.S.

The recovery in trade, both domestically and internationally, that has been achieved since the collapse of Lehman Brothers has been driven to a great extent by the expansion of fiscal and monetary stimulus in the U.S., coupled with the permanent expansion in the size of the U.S. federal government.

The stimulus measures have not been a sufficient catalyst for igniting private-sector economic activity that would give policy makers the opportunity and obligation to remove the stimulus. The reason for the failure is that the stimulus and the permanent measures have been too timid and ill-focused to reach the housing sector [man könnte auch sagen, eine platzende Hauspreis-Blase lässt sich mit Zentralbank- und Politik-Mitteln kaum reinflationieren - A.L.] and thus achieve their objective of sparking a self-sustaining economic expansion.

That is not to say that I was in favor of the measures taken, such as TARP and QE2. But once the president and Congress decided to use such measures, they should have made it clear that these measures would continue until they succeeded.

Until the recent Treasury rout [Flucht], which drove the shoulder of the Treasury yield curve up by about 100 basis points, causing a corresponding increase in mortgage rates, I was hopeful that housing could rebound in 2011 and provide the confidence necessary for private-sector economic activity to expand.

As it stands now, however, the recent increase in mortgage rates has caused a dramatic and abrupt reversal in the nascent recovery in housing [wurde inzwischen durch die Case-Shiller-Daten, die 1 % Hauspreisverfall allein von Nov. bis Dez. ermittelten, bestätigt] , and thus, in my opinion, a reversal in the prospects for U.S. economic activity in 2011.

As such, 2011 will be marked by another poor housing sector, with valuations, transactions and starts continuing to decline. This will cause the waning of inflationary concerns and renewed deflationary concerns [hörte man gestern auch von der Fed]. Consumption, job growth and unemployment will stagnate. By next spring, the Federal Reserve will either have to announce an increase in the size of QE2 or begin considering another round of quantitative easing to follow.

Coppock Curves

The Coppock curve is a proven, very-long-term indicator signaling secular turns in sentiment from negative to positive with respect to the trajectory for equity valuations. As such, it is best at providing secular buying opportunities for stocks. It is a poor indicator of selling points for equities, as it is a lagging indicator. It is also ineffective when applied to other asset classes for either buy or sell signals.

In a future column (unten angehängt), I will discuss the mechanics and importance of Coppock curves as indicators of confidence and sentiment. For the purposes of this article, I will merely direct your attention to the fact that the Coppock curves for many of the world's stock markets are now simultaneously in decline, slowing or actually negative, indicating a simultaneous, global increase in risk-aversion.

That's not normal. These markets include Australia, India, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Japan, Brazil and the U.S.

The U.S. Dollar and Gold

The U.S. dollar and gold have historically had a cyclical inverse relationship. I expect that to hold true for 2011 as well. And by that I mean that both will reverse their trajectories of 2010, with the dollar rising and gold falling. Gold has, in my opinion, entered a speculative phase and extended its inverse relationship to the dollar well beyond the historical pattern in a very short period of time.

I believe the dollar will rise, driven mostly by a flight to safety by global investors as it becomes clearer that private-sector U.S. economic activity is not rebounding and that concerns about U.S. and global inflation are misplaced. [Ich teile diese Ansicht. Es bleibt bei der Marktabsurdität, dass Investoren bei wirtschaftlicher Schwäche in USA "in den Dollar fliehen" und Risk Assets, zu denen auch das hochspekulierte Gold zählt, fallen lassen - A.L.]

As U.S. inflationary concerns continue to recede and global deflationary concerns again rise, causing the dollar's upward trajectory to accelerate, I expect gold to reverse course dramatically in 2011. (Diese Prognose brachte Arnold VOR dem deutlichen aktuellen Goldpreis-Rückgang, denn dieser Artikel ist von Ende Dez. 2010. Goldfan Wawidu hat das übrigens auf Grund von Charttechnik ebenfalls "gerochen" und vor seinem Urlaub seine Papiergold-Posi in GLD verkauft.)

As such, I believe that gold is close to the highest levels it will be able to achieve for the next few years and that a reversal will take it back to the price point at which the current run began, in the $500 range. That bottom will not likely occur for two to five years, however. For 2011, I believe that gold will likely reverse to between $800 and $1,000 an ounce in U.S. dollar terms.

Treasury Yields and Mortgage Rates

Although U.S. Treasury yields have surged recently, I do not believe this indicates increasing expectations of private-sector U.S. economic activity (sehe ich auch so, wie ich bereits mehrfach gepostet habe). I believe the reversal was started by a "buy on rumor, sell on fact" process that reached its pivot point when QE2 was announced. As the buyers reversed to take profits, the process cascaded into a duration-matching, convexity issue for mortgage portfolio managers, which has exaggerated the increase in yields well beyond fundamentals. (Das deckt sich mit D. Rosenberg, der als "Deflationsbär" ebenfalls langfristig bullisch bzgl. Anleihen ist. Ich sehe im Anstieg der Zinsen aber auch den Aspekt wachsender Risikoscheu, speziell bei den Munis. Man muss beobachten, ob es bei neu aufkommender Krisenstimmung in USA erneut eine Flucht in den Dollar und US-Staatsanleihen gibt, was die Deflations-These von Rosenberg und Arnold bestätigten würde.)

By the end of January, as it becomes apparent that U.S. housing market expectations for this spring are again overly optimistic (Treffer!), as was the case this year, I believe U.S. Treasury yields will again decline and, before the end of 2011, fall below the lowest levels achieved in 2010 (das würde zu einer deutlichen Korrektur im Aktienmarkt passen).

As a result, I believe the par 30-year fixed conventional conforming mortgage rates in the U.S. will fall below 4% in 2011. I do not believe this will occur until the latter half of 2011, however.

Oil

Although I believe the dollar will rise and gold will fall in 2011, I do not believe that oil will fall. Driven by global supply and demand imbalances, oil has now begun what I believe will be a permanent shift in its absolute price level globally and will begin a faster-than-exponential increase in U.S. dollar pricing beyond 2011. For 2011, though, I believe that oil will have its upward trajectory hampered by the renewed deflationary concerns and that it should stay in the $100-per-barrel range throughout the year. (Ich glaube nicht, dass Öl eine Sonderrolle spielt. Falls sich der deflationäre Zyklus fortsetzt, der die Kurse von US-Staatsanleihen wieder hochbringt und Aktien, Gold und Rohstoffe in den Keller schickt, dürfte sich Öl von dieser Tendenz nicht abkoppeln können.)

Conclusion

The magnitude of the mortgage, real estate and banking crisis in the U.S. and its impact on private-sector economic activity seems to have eluded everyone who is involved in addressing these issues in Washington and New York. The actions taken to date have failed. A Congress divided against itself and divided from the executive branch will severely limit fiscal policy responses to increasing concerns about another recession in the U.S. and cause us to rely on the Fed for monetary stimulus.

 

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Zur Treffsicherheit der Coppock Curve (empirisch)

Technical Analysis
Traveling the Coppock Curve
By Roger Arnold
Street.com Contributor
1/26/2011 5:30 PM EST

A few weeks ago I briefly mentioned the Coppock Curve in my "Outlook for 2011" column (Artikel oben, A.L.). Today I'll examine the curve a bit more closely.

The Coppock Curve was created by Edwin Coppock, a U.S. economist, in 1962. It is a technical indicator that attempts to quantify the psychology of the markets and determine when investor confidence has recovered from a previous secular low level and has begun a new secular upward trend.

One of the most interesting aspects of the curve is that it was created on a theory of bereavement (schmerzlicher Verlust) that had yet to be codified by sociologists. A bit more on that in a minute.

The concept was originally based on the idea that people, in general, need time to heal from the death of a loved one. According to the Episcopal Church, the organization that originally tasked Coppock with determining long-term buying opportunities for investors, this period of mourning was 11 to 14 months in duration.

So Coppock used these two time periods to create a model of investor confidence and then overlaid it onto the empirical data of actual historical market performance for U.S. equity indices, the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

The Model

The curve is a reflection of a rolling monthly average weighted return in U.S. equities. Today, however, most followers calculate the measurement daily, and many apply it markets in all classes, globally. A bit more on that in a minute as well.

The creation of the Coppock Curve is as follows:

    * The monthly calculation is the rate of return for the past 14 months plus the rate of return for the past 11 months, and then these two averages are averaged to produce a single number.
    * Then take the resulting number and multiply by 10.
    * Take the previous months' Coppock result and multiply by 9, et cetera, for 10 months.
    * Then add these 10 numbers up and divide by 55, 55 being derived as 10 plus 9 plus 8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1 -- the weights.
    * This number is then plotted and the curve created by drawing the line from the past measurement to the current measurement.

The indicator has a baseline of zero. It expresses optimism and confidence in the positive direction, and pessimism in the negative. It has been bound between readings of roughly positive 600 to negative 600.

Track Record

Since 1872, for the stocks that would have composed the S&P 500 going back that far, the indicator has dipped below the zero baseline only 39 times. For most of this time period, the majority of the curve moved back and forth between positive and negative 200. On only three occasions has the curve exceeded negative 400 before returning to a positive trajectory: in 1932, 1938 and 2009.

The curve signals that a new bull market with the concurrent positive investor sentiment has begun after the monthly indicator has turned positive and been confirmed by the following month. The importance here is that the curve is trend-following, turns positive after the markets have already done so, and merely tries to anticipate the potential for the positive trend to continue.

Caution: Dangerous Curve

Although the curve has been very accurate in its signaling a return to a long-term bull market, there have been a few times when the bull market was short lived and two times specifically that may be considered false signals, or false bottoms: 1941 and 2001. On both occasions, U.S. equity indices declined about 20% from the first buy signal before rebounding again.

A false bottom occurs when the curve turns in a positive trajectory from below the zero baseline, is validated by at least two months measurements, but then reverses to new lows before ever getting into actual positive territory.

The curve has been applied across asset classes globally and converted by most users to a daily measurement. One of the results has been a similar pattern in asset classes all over the world. This seems to indicate that investors have a pattern of being that is very similar everywhere: resilient, optimistic and early adopters.

Recurring Patterns

It wasn't until the late 1960s that Elisabeth Kubler-Ross, a Swiss psychiatrist, codified the five stages of grief to explain the emotional states one goes through in the process of accepting their own mortality once a terminal period has been determined. These stages are denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance.

Notice how similar they are to the Schumpeter's four phases of " creative destruction" we discussed last week, which apply over decades, even centuries, to societies; prosperity, recession, depression, revival. In both instances depression is the second to last stage. It is the most negative point in the process. It is the rationale behind the concept that "it's darkest before the dawn."

After the banking crisis of 2008, the world's markets all simultaneously reset, so to speak. The best way I can describe it is like a pinball machine tilting. The result has been a synchronization of Coppock Curves for asset classes all over the world. Quite frankly, I don't know what to make of that and just bring it to your attention to be aware of.

The Coppock Curves for many of the world's stock markets are moving in a negative trajectory right now and are either approaching the zero line or have gone through it. These include the U.S., Australia, Japan, Brazil, Hong Kong, Shanghai and India.

Conclusion

The Coppock Curve is a proven long-term bull market indicator that is not widely followed by financial pundits. Because of its track record, though, investors would be wise to make sure they are aware of what it is indicating before putting money into the market for what they believe will be a long-term holding period.

besser spät als nie:

www.handelsblatt.com/politik/...erikanischen-notenbank;2740841

... alleine Japan ("AA-") sicherte sich 20 Prozent der Papiere ...
>>> wer rettet hier eigentlich wen ???

"2,89 Prozent Zinsen zahlt der EFSF für die Anleihe, Deutschland zahlt dagegen nur 2,3 Prozent für ein vergleichbares Papier. „Das EFSF-Papier bietet also ein Renditeplus bei ähnlicher Bonität“ (...)
www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article12341850/...uen-in-den-Euro.html

>>> gleiches Prinzip wie beim Ködern von Kleinanlegern für neue Tagesgeldkonten ... reine Werbeaktion ...

"Das könnte der Wendepunkt sein“, sagte Klaus Regling, Chef des europäischen Rettungsfonds EFSF (...)"   *lol*

dass Japan für 5jährige derzeit ca. 0,5% zahlt.
Das nenn ich mal ein schönes Geschäft: sich bei der eigenen bevölkerung für 0,5% verschulden und selbst für 2,89% anlegen.

Viele Fonds und Hedgefonds haben in letzter Zeit Finanzwerte hochgekauft, weil sie erwarten, dass diese von der nun steileren Zinskurve profitieren. Die Banken können dann teuer ausleihen und sich kurzfristig fast gratis refinanzieren. Diese Rechnung würde jedoch nicht aufgehen, wenn die Zinsen am langen Ende, wie Rosenberg und Arnold erwarten, sukzessive wieder runterkommen, weil sich die aktuelle Inflationserwartung mittelfristig als Wahnvorstellung erweist. Das Argument für die Finanz-Rallye entfiele, und der XLF-Short liefe ins Plus.

Das Kranke an der aktuellen Erholungsstory, die teils schizophrene Züge aufweist (# 472), ist, dass einerseits von "neuer Inflation" - bedingt  u. a. durch die Rohstoffanstiege - geschwafelt wird, und diese Inflation sogar positiv als typischer Effekt einer normalen Wirtschaftserholung interpretiert wird (obwohl sie aus Heli-Bens Druckerpresse kommt), während andererseits eindringlich davor gewarnt wird, die Leitzinsen auf jeden Fall bei nahe Null zu lassen, weil sonst das Finanzsystem erneut zusammenbricht.

Das ist wirklich krank, man muss sich diese "Logik" mal auf der Zunge zergehen lassen...

Hätten wir einen wirklichen, klassischen Aufschwung, könnten die Notenbanken seelenruhig die Leitzinsen erhöhen, ohne dass dies den Aktienmarkt erneut in den Keller schicken oder Banken zum Kollabieren bringen würde. Wir sahen es zuletzt von 2004 bis 2007, als die US-Leitzinsen von 2 auf 5,25 % stiegen - bei GLEICHZEITIGER Rallye in den US-Indizes. Dass dasselbe heute "nicht möglich" sein soll, spricht dafür, dass die US-Erholung ein reiner Popanz aus Bernankes Dollar-Füllhorn ist.

---

Short-Idee: XLF

Ein Rücksetzer von aktuell 16,40 auf 13 Dollar wäre mMn möglich. Dies entspräche im Chart unten einer Korrektur bis zum unteren Ende des blauen Trendkanals.

Ich merke dies mal als "Paper-Trade" vor und werde in einigen Wochen auf dieses Posting zurückkommen.

Wieso die nochmalige Einstellung des gleichen Bericht?
http://www.ariva.de/...r_US_Notenbank_t283343?pnr=9601910#jump9601910

Permanent

Stock markets in the developed world have risen too much, Robert Shiller, economics professor at Yale, told CNBC Thursday. 

On Wednesday, the Dow bounced above and below the psychologically-important 12,000 for much of the session. But stocks look expensive, Shiller said.

"I would say the market is overpriced based on fundamentals … I'm talking about the US and probably Europe," he said.

Patrick Kron, the CEO of Alstom, said that we are in a "dual economy," where things "are moving fast again" in emerging markets while in the developed countries there is still "a wait-and-see attitude."

In the housing market, things are still confusing, despite news Wednesday that new home sales surged to the highest level in eight months, Shiller said.

"I don't think anybody understands the housing market. I think it's inherently psychological," he said.

 

In the US and in the UK, prices fell sharply after the crisis struck but then they came back up, only to fall again.

"That story has something to do with pulling out of Depression fear after what happened to Lehman," Shiller said.

But now "we may see a downturn in home prices," he added.

Wenn es, wie aktuell bei den EFSF-Anleihen, AAA-Bonität in Kombination mit "Hochzinsen" gibt, ist meistens etwas faul.

Bestes Beispiel war der US-Subprime-Schrott, der ebenfalls geringfügig mehr Zinsen abwarf als AAA-Staatsanleihen und dabei ebenfalls AAA-Rating auswies. Die dt. Landesbanken witterten ein Mördergeschäft und gingen mit Hebel 40 rein in den Deal, der später ihren Untergang brachte.

Auch die Chinesen hatten in der Zeit, als sie ihre Exporterlöse noch überwiegend in US-Anleihen steckten, "mehr Rendite" bei gleichem Risiko gesucht: Sie kauften massenhaft Anleihen der US-Hypothekenbanken Fannie und Freddie, weil die ebenfalls ein halbes Prozent mehr Zinsen brachten als AAA-US-Staatsanleihen, dabei aber wegen der Staatsgarantie für Fannie/Freddie ähnliche Sicherheit boten. Zu der Zeit hatten Fannie/Freddie selber noch AAA-Ratings, und der Aktienkurs von Fannie notierte nahe 100 Dollar (heute nahe Null).

Die Chinesen hatten wegen dieser Zins-Vorteile für ingesamt 500 Mrd. Fannie/Freddie-Anleihen gekauft. Das war damals ein Drittel ihrer gesamten Staatsersparnisse. Als dann die Finanzkrise losbrach, hat es offenbar einen geheimen Deal zwischen China und der Fed gegeben. China wollte raus aus den Fannie-Anleihen (Fannie Aktien fielen bereits wie Steine), USA wollte aber nicht, dass China das Geld abzieht. So kam es zu einer "Übereinkunft" mit der Fed, die so aussah, dass die Fed die in US-Depots gehaltenen Fannie-Anleihen der Chinesen komplett aufkaufte (im Zuge von QE1) und das Geld in einer Art Swap in US-Staatsanleihen konvertierte. Die Chinesen konnten auf diese Weise klammheimlich von Fannie/Freddie-Müll in US-Staatsanleihen "umschichten" - ohne dass ihr Geld USA überhaupt verließ.

Auch bei Fannie/Freddie-Anleihen erwies sich der geringfügige Zinsvorteil als nachteilig - gemessen an den immensen Risiken, aus denen China nur in obiger Nacht-und-Nebel-Aktion rauskam.

Hatte ich übersehen, sorry. War bei mir ja auch nur der Link.

Mein Posting 524 bezieht sich auf Permanent in # 521

Mein Posting 523 bezieht sich auf Ischariot in # 518