Der USA Bären-Thread

Deutschland hat die größten Bad Banks der Welt
www.heise.de/tp/r4/artikel/33/33208/1.html
In seinem Buch [extern] "Bankräuber. Wie kriminelle Manager und unfähige Politiker uns in den Ruin treiben" zeigt [extern] Leo Müller  minutiös auf, dass die Bankenkrise nicht wie eine unabsehbare Naturgewalt über uns hereingebrochen ist: Bereits fünf Jahre vor der Lehman-Pleite, im Februar 2003, fanden Geheimgespräche zwischen der damaligen rot-grünen Bundesregierung und dem Spitzenpersonal der deutschen Bankenwelt statt, in welchen über eine bevorstehende Bankenkrise debattiert wurde. Denn schon damals schlummerten nur unzureichend gedeckte Kredite im Umfang von etwa 300 Milliarden Euro in ihren Giftschränken. Und bereits zu diesem Zeitpunkt wurde vonseiten der Banken die Forderung nach staatlich finanzierten Bad Banks gestellt.

Da diese Forderung in der deutschen Öffentlichkeit politisch nicht durchzusetzen war, einigte man sich auf die Einführung sogenannter Conduits: Zweckgesellschaften, die in Finanzoasen angesiedelt wurden und die - obwohl sie als Eigentum eines Treuhändlers oder Trusts gelten - jedoch nicht wie eine solche bilanziert werden. Mit diesem Taschenspielertrick wurden die faulen Kredite ausgelagert und die Regeln des deutschen Bilanzrechts in puncto Eigenkapital umgangen, in welchem riskante Anlagen mit einem entsprechenden eigenen Finanzpuffer unterlegt werden müssen. Formal handeln diese Briefkastenfirmen vollkommen unabhängig von ihrer Stammbank, obgleich Letztere für diese haftbar zu machen sind.

Diese Zweckgesellschaften konzentrierten sich nun ausgerechnet auf den US-amerikanischen Immobilienmarkt. Als diese Spekulationsblase platzte, beschloss die schwarz-rote Bundesregierung, nachdem sie die Auswirkungen der Krise auf den deutschen Finanzmarkt verschleiert hatte, binnen Tagen eine Garantie für "systemrelevante" Banken in dreistelliger Milliardenhöhe zu geben. Gleichfalls wurden Bad Banks gegründet. Man hat also die Forderungen der Bankiers vom ersten Geheimtreffen 2003 mittlerweile ohne Aufschrei in der Öffentlichkeit erfüllt. Damit ist der Staat nun verschuldet wie nie zuvor.

.....Kann soviel Ignoranz und Inkompetenz Zufall sein?

Leo Müller: Es ist klar, dass es neben Marktversagen ganz offensichtlich auch Staatsversagen und politisches Versagen gab. Doch wir müssen feststellen, dass das politische Versagen nicht einmal analysiert wurde. Anders als in anderen Ländern hat in Deutschland keine Regierungsinstitution, keine Aufsichtbehörde, kein Expertengremium die Fehler in der finanzpolitischen Steuerung der Krise untersucht.

"Voodoo-Aufsicht"

Bei den Recherchen an meinem Buch musste ich erleben, dass deutsche Finanzpolitiker vor und während der Krise sehr inkompetent agiert und zum Teil sogar damit kokettiert haben, dass sie von den internationalen Finanzmärkten nichts verstehen. Das hat sich bitter gerächt.

Welche Rolle spielten hier die Finanzpolitiker?

Leo Müller: Bei der Kompetenz eines Finanzpolitikers geht es ja in erster Linie nicht um ideologische Fragen, sondern schlicht darum, wie viel er von Finanzmärkten und von der globalen Finanzindustrie versteht. Bei deutschen Finanzpolitikern hat man häufig den Eindruck, dass sie ihre Inkompetenz mit billigem Populismus überdecken. Und das kommt beim Publikum auch noch gut an. .....

.....Nun haben die Landesbanken bei diesen hochriskanten Geschäften auf dem Hypothekenmarkt kräftig mitgemischt und mussten anschließend vom Staat finanziell gerettet werden. Wie also spielen die Landesbanken in die Finanzkrise hinein?

Es ist ein deutsches Sonderphänomen der Finanzkrise, dass hier die Landesbanken massiv auf dem Verbriefungsmarkt engagiert waren, sogar die amerikanischen Notenbanker wunderten sich über die Deutschen. Ein weiterer deutscher Sonderfall ist es, dass die Landesbanken hier noch Verbriefungen für für nicht werthaltige Papiere in Milliardenvolumen kauften, als auf den internationalen Märkten andere rasant ausstiegen. Und man kann drittens erkennen, dass die betroffenen Landesbanken, hier Citi-Bank, gespielt haben: Sie kauften Wertpapiere in Größenordnungen wie sonst nur die größten Finanzkonzerne der Welt, obwohl sie von ihrer Kapitalbasis dazu überhaupt nicht ausgestattet waren. Und weil ihr Eigenkapital ihnen diese Geschäfte gar nicht erlaubte, griffen sie zum Bilanztrick, diese Geschäfte außerhalb der Konzernbilanz über Briefkastenfirmen in Dublin oder auf Jersey abzuwickeln.

Nehmen Sie den Fall der Sachsen LB: Diese Landesbank hatte Eigenkapital von ungefähr einer Milliarde Euro und hat in der Größenordnung von mehr als 30 Milliarden Euro in Briefkastenfirmen außerhalb Deutschlands angelegt. Sie hat also ohne hinreichendes Eigenkapital auf diesen Märkten mitgemischt.

"Nicht Banker, sondern Politiker haben Entscheidungen getroffen"

Das war  in Deutschland nicht erlaubt, und meines Erachtens auch nicht durch die Verlagerung des Geschäfts ins Ausland. Und das war ganz klar eine Verletzung der Bilanzregeln. Daher muss meines Erachtens hier geprüft werden, ob die Kreditvergabe- und Sorgfaltspflichten erfüllt wurden, ob die Bilanzierungspflichten eingehalten wurden und ob hier nicht sogar eine Veruntreuung der öffentlichen Gelder vorliegt. .....
www.heise.de/tp/r4/artikel/33/33208/1.html

U.S. consumer spending rose at the strongest pace in four months in July, supported by a small gain in incomes and a jump in auto sales, offering hope that consumers will be able to keep contributing to a modest recovery.

 

The Commerce Department said on Monday spending increased 0.4 percent, the largest gain since March, after being flat in June. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected consumer spending to rise 0.3 percent.

Stock index futures, which had been flat to slightly lower, mostly held steady after the data release.

Die Weltfinanzmärkte kommen nicht zur Ruhe: Aus den USA wehen düstere Befürchtungen nach Europa. Die Lust der Anleger ist gedämpft. Viele fragen sich: Haben Dax und Dow Jones ihre Jahreshöchststände womöglich schon hinter sich?

http://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/...7-aengste-der-maerkte;2644820

The United States needs to stop printing money and take on austerity measures like the Europeans did, in order for the economy to recover, said billionaire investor Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings.

 

"I'd rather have the Europeans running the U.S. central bank than the people running the U.S. central bank, least they know how to try to build for the future," Rogers told CNBC Monday.

“In America, Bernanke just says we'll print more money, we'll spend more money, even though the United States is now the largest debtor nation in the history of the world."

Rogers reiterated that economies in trouble should be allowed to go under, like bad companies.

"The things that have worked in the past... will be you go bankrupt then you re-organize and you start over. You have a painful period for awhile, and then you start over. This has been done in the past 3 or 4 thousand years, and that's the way you do it," said Rogers.

"Trying to push the problem out to the future, and printing money, we just had another example here in the U.S., it didn't work and it's not going to work."

Rogers said that with central banks "flooding the world with money", the only place to invest right now is in real assets, whether it's in "silver, or rice or natural gas".

"Paper money is not going to do it for you," he added.

No Bubble in Gold, Currencies are ‘Difficult'

He disagrees that that there's a bubble brewing in the gold market right now, although he doesn't rule that out in the future.

"I expect there to be hysteria in the precious metals markets in 5 to 10 years. Right now, very few people own gold, and I can hardly call something a bubble when very few people own it," he said.

 

Rogers also revealed that he is bullish on the agricultural commodity space.

"There are 3 billion people in Asia, and most of them had not had a very good standard of living in the past 100 or 200 years. That's changing and changing very rapidly. They're going to eat more, they're going to wear more clothes…so agriculture is going to do very well."

He pointed out that cocoa stands to do very well.

On currencies, he said it's a difficult asset class to invest in right now, as he expects "a lot more currency turmoil over the next 2- 3 years because of the huge imbalances that exist in the world."

"I would prefer the euro, perhaps with the yen second. Because there are many technical reasons that I'm optimistic about the yen," he concluded.

Hier mal wieder ein Schlaglicht auf diesen Markt: Die Serie CMBX.NA.BBB2 wurde in 2007 emittiert und am Hoch mit 97.3 bezahlt. Laut David Rosenberg ist BBB bis BB das mediane Rating bei solchen Bonds. AAA- und AA-Bonds machen gerade mal etwa 10 % aus.

Zunächst zwei recht gegensätzliche zum Analysten-Sentiment:

www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/06/...-are-still-too-bullish/print/

www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-29/...lysts-in-math-denial.html

Und nun eines mit "harten" Daten:

www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/08/...ufacturing-activity.html

"jump in auto sales"

Der größte Teil davon ist auf saisonale Tauschmaßnahmen der Mietwagen-Unternehmen zurückzuführen.

www.wirtschaftsfacts.de/?p=8226#more-8226

www.wirtschaftsfacts.de/?p=8197#more-8197

Zunehmend mehr Small Cap Unternehmen geraten bzgl. Umsätzen/Gewinnen bzw. Krediten in Schwierigkeiten. Kaum sind die zum Gutteil nicht berückenden Q2-Zahlen veröffentlicht, kommen schon erste Gewinnwarnungen für Q3 und das Gesamtjahr.
Der GD-Fächer und MACD 60,130,45  im Chart des $RUT verheißen nichts Gutes.

and other leading powers.
www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/...metal-exports.html
Japan's foreign minister Katsuya Okada issued what amounted to a formal protest at top-level meeting with Chinese officials in Beijing over the weekend, saying the sudden cut-off was "affecting the global production chain".

It is the latest sign of rising pressure after angry complaints by companies outside China that rely on this family of 17 metals for hybrid cars, mobile phones, superconductors, navigation, and a host of high-tech industries.

China's commerce minister Chen Deming said that Beijing would not back down over the export quotas. "Mass-extraction of rare earth will cause great damage to the environment, that's why China has tightened controls," he said, repeating the official line.

Beijing set off shockwaves in early July when it announced a 72pc reduction in rare earth exports over the second half of this year. The country has acquired a near monopoly, with 97pc of global output after under-cutting the rest of the world with Mongolian ores in the 1990s. The sudden cut-off since July has drastically restricted supplies to the rest of world.

The last US mine shut 14 years ago, discouraged by tough US environmental rules. The US General Accounting Office said China now has a "dominant position" with market power. "Rebuilding a US rare earth supply chain may take up to 15 years," it said.

Washington is examining claims that China's curbs breach World Trade Organisation rules by giving preferential access to Chinese companies. The US Trade Representative is collecting data from US firms to assess the basis for a legal challenge. There are strong suspicions that Beijing's aim is to force foreign companies to locate technology plants in China. China claims it will need a growing proportion of these metals for its own industries, but US and Japanese officials say privately that Beijing's methods are not in keeping with the WTO ethos. Japan has already drafted a "Strategy For Enhancing Stable Supplies of Rare Metals" and has been stockpiling.

Rare earth metals are sprinkled in iPads, BlackBerrys, plasma TVs, lasers, wind turbines, hybrid engines, and smart bombs. They cannot easily be replaced, if at all. Neodymium enhances magnets at high heat, and cerium is used in catalytic converters.

Rare earth ores are not in fact rare, merely scattered and costly to extract. There are ample reserves in the US,Australia, Canada, Russia, and Greenland....aber es wird 15 Jahre dauern

Vodafone joins queue of firms to leave China
www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/...o-leave-China.html
The British mobile group holds a fifth of the free float of China Mobile, the world’s biggest operator with 554m customers. It is weighing options for an open sale of shares on the Hong Kong stockmarket, or through a direct deal with a strategic player.

Few company chiefs speak out against China for fear of hurting their prospects, but their numbers have been swelling recently. Peter Loescher from Siemens and Jürgen Hambrecht from Germany’s chemical group BASF told premier Wen Jiabao last month that the playing field in China is increasingly tilted against foreigners.

Jeff Immelt, the head of GE, vented his frustrations in Rome, complaining that the company’s efforts to gain a foothold in China were failing to pay off. “It’s getting harder for foreign companies to do business there. I am not sure that in the end they want any of us to win, or to be successful,” he said.

GE is moving production of its hybrid water heaters to Kentucky, saying rising Chinese labour costs and shipping costs make it more competitive to produce locally for the US market.

Steve Balmer from Microsoft said early this year that China’s software piracy was a constant thorn in the side. “China is a less interesting market to us than India or Indonesia,” he said.

The American and European chambers of commerce in Beijing have issued reports about subtle barriers, dubbed the “Great Wall of China”. They are particularly concerned by China’s central bank’s actions to hold down the yuan....

Symptomatisch ist hier der Chart von Nordstrom, einer Einzelhandelskette für den "gehobenen Mittelstand":

finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=JWN+Profile

Zwischen November 2008 und April 2010 "versprach" der Chart eine V-Recovery, die jedoch weder bei den Umsätzen noch bei den nur durch massive "Verschlankung" (ihr wisst, was ich damit meine!) erzielten "beachtlichen" Gewinnen real eintrat.

How Low Can We Go?
By Rev Shark
Street.com Contributor
8/30/2010 4:30 PM EDT


The most positive thing you can say about the action today is that the volume was light. We started off flat, but the good mood from Friday completely evaporated, and we closed very poorly. In fact, we closed almost exactly where we were when the text of the Bernanke speech was released on Friday.

Breadth was particularly ugly, with about 1,250 gainers to 4,400 decliners. All major sectors ended up in negative territory, and bonds reversed up sharply following the Friday selloff.

The fact that we were completely incapable of building on the Friday spike is not a good sign. My thesis that maybe Intel (INTC) was washed out following its downward guidance didn't seem to apply at all today, and if Ben Bernanke was responsible for the action on Friday, then investors sure changed their minds awfully fast.

The S&P 500 is still above the key 1040 level we bounced off of a couple times last week, but the action is so anemic, I'm not at all confident that will last for long. The year's lows are within a stone's throw, and I'll be very surprised if we don't test them soon.

It isn't too difficult to determine what is wrong with this market. There is very little participation, which means volume is at its lowest this year. The only news flow we have is about the economy, and the only people who see positives there are politicians running for reelection. There is no urgency to buy, and those who want to escape end up selling into a vacuum.

There isn't much we can do about it other than stay patient and protect our capital. There are some interesting low-volume shorts for the bears, but if you prefer the long side, you'll have to wait for the market to regain some energy. And that is probably not going to happen until after the Labor Day holiday.

Bevor der RSI bei oder unter 30 steht, ist mMn ein (Zwischen-)Boden nicht in Sicht, egal was die Serial-Bottom-Caller plärren.

RSI unter 30 würde wohl nur erreicht, wenn die 1040-Mauer fällt. 1040 war dieses Jahr schon mindestens drei Mal für Abpraller nach oben gut. Unterstützungen haben aber die Eigenschaften, immer brüchiger zu werden, je öfter sie getestet werden.

Shark meint im letzten Posting, es würde ihn wundern, wenn die 1040-Mauer nicht fiele. Unterhalb 1010 würden strategische Shorts auf den Downtrend aufsatteln. Sie könnten einen Ausverkauf lostreten, der mein (Zwischen-)Kursziel von 900 bis 950 im SPX in Reichweite bringt.

Japan renews QE as recovery falters

Japan has launched a fresh monetary and fiscal boost to shore up its faltering recovery and stem the slide into deflation, becoming the first major country to inject further stimulus since the Great Recession ended.

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor, Telegraph
Published: 8:20PM BST 30 Aug 2010

The Bank of Japan agreed at an emergency meeting to boost its special loan facility by ¥10 trillion to ¥30 trillion (£220.7bn). "We need to watch out more carefully for downside risks to Japan's economy," said Governor Masaaki Shirakawa, who cut off his trip to the Jackson Hole forum in the US.

"Several weak US figures came out, while the yen rose and stock prices fell. When we saw this, we decided that we need to take more precautions."

Premier Naoto Kan said Tokyo would tap into its reserve fund for a ¥920bn spending package on jobs and investment. "We want to take swift measures as the second pillar of stimulus to support easing by the bank," he said.

The sums are tiny, a sign of Mr Kan's limited room for manoeuvre as public debt reaches 225pc of GDP. Rating agencies are already circling ominously.

The economy stalled in the second quarter, growing just 0.1pc. Prices have fallen for the past 17 months. Core deflation is running at -1.1pc.

The Bank of Japan's move was too timid to stabilise exchange markets. The yen appreciated sharply to ¥84.6 against the dollar. It is once again closing in on a 15-year high.

Julian Jessop, from Capital Economics, said the bank was responding "without enthusiasm" to political pressure to do something about the over-mighty yen.

Mr Kan has been calling for "decisive action" to stem the yen's rise, now causing heartburn for exporters such as Toyota and Sony.

While the yen has at times been stronger against the dollar in real terms, it is the rate against China's yuan that worries Tokyo. This cross-rate is wildly out of kilter.

Japan's curse is that the yen strengthens in times of crisis as investors repatriate money for safety. Life insurers and pension funds rotate from US bonds back into Japanese bonds as the yield gap narrows, which compounds Japan's deflation woes.

BNP Paribas said Japan may have more luck than Switzerland in driving down the currency if it chooses to intervene, since both monetary and fiscal policy are aligned in the same direction. Japan's authorities launched a huge purchase of US Treasuries during the deflation scare from 2003 to 2004 in order to weaken the yen.

Mr Kan would like to see a repeat of such "shock and awe" action but has failed to convince Mr Shirakawa that the risks are worth it. Bank officials fear that a monetary blast might disturb a fragile equilibrium, bringing unwelcome attention on Japan's debts. Haunted by memories of Japan's hyperinflation, the bank is moving gingerly.

Even so, it is the first central bank to start loosening again.

While the Bank of England has hinted at more quantitative easing, and the Fed is taking steps to avoid "passive tightening", neither has yet launched fresh QE.
 
www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/...recovery-falters.html

...
But first, the scoreboard:

Dow: -135
NASDAQ: -33
S&P 500: -15.77

And now the top stories:

   * Early Sunday evening it looked as though Monday might prove to be a classic "risk on" kinda day. Word that the BoJ was to make an emergency announcement  depressed the yen and sent the Nikkei soaring. After jumping 1.6% and the open, the Nikkei kept rallying, and at one point was up about 3.3%.

   * But the optimists got fooled again by the BoJ. As everyone should have expected all along, there was no intervention to weaken the yen -- instead the bank merely extended a loan program that nobody took seriously as a market-moving measure. Half of the rally evaporated and the yen sharply turned higher.

   * And the yen kept rallying throughout the morning, blowing well past its pre-announcement highs. And of course that was only natural. The BoJ basically sent a massive signal that it was not inclined to do much of anything, even when the perfect situation had presented itself.

   * That yen rise put the pressure on everyone throughout the day. Europe sagged, and US markets (which had at one point shown an indication of rallying) came under pressure. The consumer spending and income data was benign so that was a relief, though the latest survey from the Dallas Fed confirmed the manufacturing slowdown (presaging an ugly ISM report on Wednesday). There was also more deal news today. In addition to Sanofy bidding for Genzyme (made public on Sunday), 3M announced the acquisition of biometrics maker Cogent. And HP announced a major buyback.

   * The market continued to sag, and Obama held another speech to slam the GOP for failing to act -- a move perhaps prompted by the criticism he's received in the media about his hands-off approach to the economy.


www.businessinsider.com/closing-bell-august-30-2010-8

Stocks could finish August on a cranky note Tuesday.

 

The market Monday failed to follow through on Friday's rally, and instead saw selling accelerate into the closing bell. The Dow lost 140 points or 1.5 percent to 10009, while the S&P 500 fell 15 points, or 1.5 percent to 1048. At the same time, buyers flocked to bonds, reversing some of Friday's losses in Treasurys.

Stocks traded on the lowest volume of the year, or about 3 billion shares -- 25 percent below the average August daily volume and 40 percent below recent normal volume.

The Dow is now down 4.4 percent for the month, and the S&P is down 4.8 percent.  September historically is the worst performing month for stocks, with an average loss of 1 percent for the Dow and 0.7 percent for the S&P.

"The bulls had control coming into today. It was theirs to lose, and they had no power, no shots in the gun," said Scott Redler, a technical analyst with T3Live.com. "Goldman Sachs traded through Friday's lows. Bank of America traded new year lows. The banks gave us clues that Friday's reversal wasn't going to hold."  The S&P financial sector was the worst performing major sector, down 2.2 percent Monday and down nearly 9 percent for the month.

"Friday's low of 1039 (on the S&P 500) will be the next point of reference. A daily close below that would open the door back to 1010," said Redler.

Traders and analysts have been looking to September as a month that promises to be volatile. Since 1929, whenever the Dow showed a loss for the year by the end of August, it ended the full year with a loss 81% of the time.

Jeff Kleintop of LPL Financial said, in an email, that he is looking for a decline, but he sees a rebound later in the year. "We raised 10 to 15 percent cash from stocks last week in anticipation of further downside and heightened risk in the coming weeks, until the catalysts come together for a late year rally," he said.

Analysts have been looking to the November election as one factor that may be a turning point for stocks because it will give more clarity to the political environment.

Septembers to Remember

Birinyi Associates crunched the numbers for September market performances following Augusts with similar levels of decline. They found that since 1928, there was a 50/50 split in direction in September after the weak August. What the September performances did have in common was that for the most part, there were big moves in either direction.

For instance in 2001, the 6.4 percent August decline in the S&P was followed by an 8.2 percent drop in September. The 5.7 percent drop in August, 1997 was followed by a 5.4 percent gain in September. The worst September drop after a down August was in 1937. That year, stocks lost 4.4 percent in August and 14.2 percent in September.

 

Traders though said Monday's sell off seemed overblown and was exaggerated by the thin trading volume. But there have also been concerns about the earnings power of companies. The fear that third quarter earnings estimates may be too high has increased after Intel's warning Friday that its revenues would be less than expected. Earnings worries also hit bank stocks Monday.

On Tuesday, FDIC Chair Sheila Bair holds a press conference to announce bank and thrift earnings for the second quarter at 10 a.m.

What to Watch

Tuesday's data includes S&P/Case-Shiller home prices at 9 a.m.; Chicago purchasing managers at 9:45 a.m. and consumer confidence at 10 a.m. The minutes of the Fed's Aug. 10 meeting are also released at 2 p.m.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech before a gathering of central bankers and economists in Jackson Hole last Friday has probably taken the punch out of the minutes. It was after that meeting, that the Fed downgraded its outlook for the economy and initiated a trimmed down version of quantitative easing.

On Friday, Bernanke vowed the Fed would do what it takes to keep the recovery from faltering, including a possible return to a fuller program of quantitative easing. The theory is that if the Fed becomes a bigger buyer of Treasurys it can help drive down rates that would apply to things like commercial and consumer loans.

"We know what number one is thinking about, after Friday. It would be interesting to know what sort of conditions it would take for them to actually pull the trigger and restart quantitative easing. You never quite know what's in there (the minutes). You can try to judge how many members are in favor of that," said Christopher Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi.

The markets were spooked last week, ahead of Bernanke's speech, when the Wall Street Journal reported that seven of 17 Fed officials were against or had reservations about returning to quantitative easing. The Fed took a step towards a new QE program Aug. 10, when it said it would purchase Treasurys with the proceeds of its maturing mortgage securities, basically keeping its balance sheet stable.

Rupkey said he's watching consumer confidence as well. "It's a big market factor when it falls dramatically. It came off a couple of months ago, and it hasn't made a new downward leg. It will be interesting to see what happens there...the idea at the moment is consumer confidence in July is down a little since June. Consumer spending hasn't fallen of the map. The consumer spending for July was ok.  It wasn't double dip material. It wasn't awful," he said.

John Spinello, Treasury strategist at Jefferies, said he will be watching the employment component of the consumer confidence report. He said even if it's not a market mover, bonds could see month end volatility Tuesday.

He said some of Monday's activity was due to index buyers ahead of the month end. "There was good buying in bonds, not just speculative stuff. There was legitimate buying overnight, foreigners buying over night," he said.

"We'll be volatile and in a thin market, we will have an underlying bid if we do trade down. I don't think we'll reach the yields we saw last Wednesday, but I think the market will fool around with 2.5 percent on the 10-year notes. We'll have lack of selling tomorrow," he said.

The yield on the 10-year was at 2.53 percent Monday, and the 30-year fell to 3.58 percent.

In the foreign exchange market, the Bank of Japan failed to stop the yen's rise, as traders bet against the Japanese government's stimulus plans. The dollar lost nearly a percent against the yen Monday. The dollar gained a half percent against the euro.

Mein Tausch (DAX Short gegen Euro long/$) vom Freitrag war nicht glücklich gewählt. Der Euro long (Einstieg bei 1,2706) liegt im Minus und hat einen Teil der Shortgewinne vom Aktienmarkt aufgezehrt. Der Verkauf des Short war zumindest nicht falsch (ein Wiedereinstieg am Montagmorgen wäre genial gewesen), nur der Kauf eines Euro Long war voreilig.
Von den Arbeitsmarktdaten ADP am Mittwoch und BLS am Freitag kann man wohl nicht viel gutes erwarten.

Gruss

Permanent

Die Kurserholung vom Freitag wurde gestern beim DAX direkt wieder verkauft. Der Index schloss mit einem Minus von 0,7 Prozent. Das klingt zwar nicht dramatisch, aber die Tatsache, dass eine entstehende Bodenbildung direkt abgebrochen wird und an der 200-Tage-Linie scheiterte, ist klar bärisch. Zur Stunde werden sogar die Tiefstkurse vom Freitag unterschritten und die Abwärtsbewegung damit fortgesetzt. Noch kritischer sehe ich aktuell die amerikanischen Indizes, die bei einem Bruch der Verlaufstiefs aus der vergangenen Woche nach unten zunächst einmal sehr viel Platz in Richtung Süden hätten.

Beim DAX warten zumindest bei 5800 und 5600 Punkten noch einmal ziemlich deutliche Unterstützungen, die einen Kursverfall zumindest temporär aufhalten können. Allerdings haben auch hier Indikatoren wie MACD und RSI noch einige Hundert Punkte Platz nach unten, bis ein wirklich überverkaufter Zustand erreicht wäre. Ich wäre also weiterhin vorsichtig, zu früh eine tragfähige Bodenbildung auszurufen. Kurzfristige Stabilisierungen wie die der abgelaufenen Woche können Sie aber jederzeit einplanen.

DAX im Tageschart

enl.fid-newsletter.de/imgproxy/img/602525683/dax310810.png" style="max-width:560px" />

Nächste Widerstände: 6600, 6350, 6250, 6060 Punkte

Nächste Unterstützungen: 5800, 5430, 5320, 5170 Punkte

 

Herzliche Grüße und viel Erfolg,

 

Ihr Henrik Voigt.

 Dienstag, 31. August 2010

  Trübe Daten aus der Industrie

Japan spürt die Yen-Bremse

 

Der Höhenflug des Yen wächst sich für die drittgrößte  Volkswirtschaft der Erde zunehmend zum Problem aus. Zahlen aus dem  Handelsministerium deuten es an: Die Drehzahlen des japanischen  Wirtschaftsmotors werden im Herbst zurückgehen.

Die japanische Industrie bekommt den starken Yen und die Abkühlung auf ihren wichtigsten Exportmärkten China und USA zu spüren. Im Juli legte die Produktion zwar überraschend um 0,3 Prozent zu, wie das Handelsministerium in Tokio mitteilte. Für den August sind die Unternehmen in den vergangenen vier Wochen aber deutlich vorsichtiger geworden. Und im September erwarten sie nur noch eine minimale Steigerung.

 

"Es ist nicht so, dass sich der Zustand der japanischen Wirtschaft verschlechtert", erklärte Takeshi Minami, Chef-Volkswirt am Forschungsinstitut Norinchukin. "Aber das Tempo der Erholung verlangsamt sich sichtlich." Die drittgrößte Volkswirtschaft müsse sich auf ein deutlich langsameres Produktionswachstum einstellen, "ganz besonders im vierten Quartal, wenn die Folgen des Yen-Höhenflugs in vollen Umfang spürbar werden".

 

Experten hatten im Mittel im Juli bereits mit einem weiteren Rückgang des Ausstoßes um 0,2 Prozent gerechnet, nach einem Minus von 1,1 Prozent im Juni. Für August erwarten die Manager der Umfrage des Ministeriums zufolge nun eine Ausweitung um 1,6 Prozent, im September aber nur noch um 0,2 Prozent. Vor einem Monat hatten sie noch ein Plus von zwei Prozent im August erwartet.

www.teleboerse.de/nachrichten/...t-die-Yen-Bremse-article1383371.html

 

 

 

Dienstag, 31. August 2010

  Machtlose Währungshüter

Yen zeigt kaum Risse

 

An den asiatischen Devisenmärkten blicken Währungsstrategen auf  einen ungebrochen starken Yen. Die Interventionen Tokios bleiben  scheinen wirkungslos zu verpuffen. Der Euro weicht gegenüber dem Dollar  zurück.

Die neuen Maßnahmen der japanischen Notenbank und Regierung gegen den Yen-Auftrieb sind am Dienstag ohne große Wirkung geblieben. Die Landeswährung blieb im asiatischen Handel zunächst nahe eines 15-Jahres-Hochs zum Dollar.

 

Der Dollar wurde mit 84,52 Yen gehandelt, kaum verändert zum Stand in den USA. In der vergangenen Woche hatte er zwischenzeitlich 83,58 Yen erreicht. Ein Euro wurde mit 1,2643 Dollar bewertet nach 1,2664 Dollar im späten New Yorker Handel. Der Schweizer Franken notierte zum Euro mit 1,2937 und zum Dollar mit 1,0228.

 

Die Bank von Japan hatte am Montag ihre Finanzierungshilfen für Banken aufgestockt. Die Regierung in Tokio kündigte Konjunkturstützen und signalisierte eine Bereitschaft, direkt in das Marktgeschehen einzugreifen. Der anhaltend hohe Yen belastet die japanische Exportwirtschaft.

 

www.teleboerse.de/marktberichte/...igt-kaum-Risse-article1383296.html

Millions now facing the lowest returns on investments since records began

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1307497/...tes-nose-dive.html

die gleichen Probleme überall:teilweise halbieren sich die Auszahlungen bereits

Millions approaching retirement could be devastated by the worst pension payouts since records began.

Despite saving the same amount of money into their pensions, they face the dire prospect of getting about half the income they would have received 15 years ago, research reveals today.

It comes on top of the collapse in final salary pension schemes, with millions locked out of the best type of retirement provision.

Experts said employees who want to retire are facing a nightmare which no previous generation has had to cope with.
The plunge in pension payouts is because annuity rates have nose-dived. Annuities offer a guaranteed monthly income to those who have saved into a pension pot.

But over the last month several major investment firms, such as Aegon, Aviva and Legal & General, have started to cut their annuity rates.
Their rivals are almost certain to follow and experts predict that rates will fall even lower over the coming months. Around 50,000 people a year buy an annuity, with up to £20billion of their hard-earned cash ploughed into the investment products.......

keiner ein Problem mit einem starken Yen hat. Es gibt nur profiteure auf Kosten Japans. China, Europa  und den USA ist ein starker Yen recht.
Die japanische Wirtschaft leidet und die BOJ ist alleine relativ machtlos.

Permanent