Der USA Bären-Thread

Die Steuereinnahmen werden schwach bleiben, die Sozialsysteme (Krankenkassen, Rentenkassen, Pflegeversicherung) werden höhere Ausgaben zu verzeichnen haben. Die versprochene Steuerreform wird nicht realisiert werden können, die Löhne steigen kaum.
Wir fordern die Konsolidierung der Staatsfinanzen, langfristig der einzige Weg nachhaltiges Wachstum und Wohlstand zu sichern. Mittelfristig wird es größere Schmerzen bereiten als wir es uns heute vorstellen können.
(Schuldenbremse 2010 http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schuldenbremse_(Deutschland)
Es ist volkswirtschaftlich-, wirtschaftshistorischer Sicht ist es nicht ungewöhnlich Schwächphasen von einer Generation (25 Jahre) zu sehen. Das ist im Kontext der menschlichen Entwicklung nicht unbedingt nachteilig. Für den einzelnen ist es nur dumm wenn die eigene (endliche) Lebenszyklus in eine solche Phase fällt.

Sollte die Schuldenbremse in Deutschland tatsächlich durchgezogen werden, so wird es nicht lange dauern bis viele sich in das Lager von Helicopter Ben schlagen.
Welches ist der Weg der geringeren Schmerzen?

Permanent

sind doch immerhin Franzosen

dass die BASF ohnehin ihre Preise setzen kann, wie sie will und damit nicht auf den Euro angewiesen ist
nur was deren Import von Hilfsgütern und Rohstoffen betrifft, spielt er eine poitive Rolle wenn er stark ist und der Dollar schwach, aber bitte lest selbst:

http://www.ariva.de/news/...-Vorteil-fuer-deutsche-Wirtschaft-3330040

BASF-Chef: Schwacher Euro kein Vorteil für deutsche Wirtschaft
08:03 16.03.10

BERLIN (dpa-AFX) - BASF-Chef (Profil) Jürgen Hambrecht sieht im schwachen Euro keinen Vorteil für die exportstarke deutsche Wirtschaft. "Ich warne davor, den schwachen Euro als Vorteil für die deutsche Industrie zu sehen. Das ist ein scheinbarer Wettbewerbsvorteil, den wir uns nicht wirklich erarbeitet haben. Unsere Lohnstückkosten in der Krise sind gestiegen. In den USA und in Asien sind sie gefallen", sagte Hambrecht der Bild-Zeitung (Dienstagausgabe).

Die notwendigen Reformen dürften jetzt nicht verschoben werden, sonst gebe es noch ein bitteres Ende, mahnte der Chef des weltgrößten Chemiekonzerns. Er betonte die Bedeutung des Euro für die Industrie: "Ein stabiler Euro ist für die Wirtschaft enorm wichtig, um besser planen und kalkulieren zu können. Die Kanzlerin handelt hier richtig: Die Griechen müssen zeigen, dass sie sparen wollen." Die europäische Währung sei für BASF "ein Segen" und der Euro insgesamt "ein Riesenerfolg"./jha/sk

Wenn der Yen fällt, weil bei Japan-Staatsanleihen Risikoaversion aufkommt wegen zu hoher Staatsverschuldung und weiterer Rating-Downgrades, dann ist das mMn keine gute Grundlage für eine japanische Aktien-Rallye. Es gibt dann kein Vertrauen mehr in die Währung und in die Bonds. Wer soll in einem solchem Umfeld Aktien vertrauen?

Genausogut könnte man argumentieren, der Peso-Crash in Argentinien 2002 wäre gut für argentinische Aktien gewesen, weil die Firmen danach besser exportieren können. Der Peso-Kollaps war aber ein Staatsbankrott. Die Argentinier haben ihre Schulden (Staatsanleihen) seitdem nicht beglichen.

www.faz.net/s/...1EABE50FAE2AEBA30B~ATpl~Ecommon~Scontent.html

kann man sich nur noch auf durch grammtikalische Klimmzüge möglichst undurchschaubar gemachte Statements einigen:

The Eurogroup reaffirmed the commitment by euro area Member States to take determined and coordinated action, if needed.   It clarified the technical modalities enabling a decision on coordinated action and which could be activated swiftly in the case of need.  
(which in diesem Satz bezieht sich auf modalities?, action?, decision?, keine der 3 Varianten macht wirklich Sinn)

The objective would not be to provide financing at average euro area interest rates, but to safeguard financial stability in the euro area as a whole.  

The proposals (welche Vorschläge?) would be fully consistent with the Treaty framework and national law and would provide strong incentives to return to markets as soon as possible.

überflüssig.

My best guess! ;-)))

Ist doch eh nur Wischiwaschi, d. h. eine "Schaumermal"-Strategie um zu sehen, ob sich das "Problem" nicht doch von alleine löst. ;-)))

Modalitäten, die bei Bedarf zügig aktiviert werden können

ROFL

schwammig zu halten. Die Gegenpartei soll nicht einschätzen können was wann passieren könnte. Wo kämen wir auch hin, wenn man Spekulationen vorher ausrechnen könnte. Weder von der Fed noch von der US-Administration wissen wir was die im Falle eines Falles unternehmen würden. Ist also ein total übliches Unterfangen.

• Roubini Worried by 'Runaway Fiscal Deficits'

  Stock market volatility is likely to increase as investors are faced with the dilemma of government and central banks' exits from stimulus strategies, economist Nouriel Roubini told CNBC Tuesday. Housing Market Sure to Double-Dip: Whitney

• U.S. Housing Starts, Permits Fall in February

www.zeit.de/newsticker/2010/3/16/...fk-20100316-53-24230496xml
Die EU bleibt zerstritten über strengere Regeln für hochspekulative Hedgefonds. Entgegen ursprünglicher Pläne verhandelten die EU-Finanzminister bei ihrem Treffen in Brüssel nicht über eine bessere Kontrolle der Fonds, die als Mitauslöser der weltweiten Finanzkrise gelten. Wie EU-Diplomaten berichteten, wurde das Thema wegen des starken Widerstands der Briten von der Tagesordnung genommen. Der Entwurf für ein EU-Gesetz begrenzt die Gehälter der Fondsmanager und schreibt ihnen mehr Transparenz vor.....

www.nytimes.com/2010/03/17/business/global/....html?ref=global
BRUSSELS — E.U. finance ministers delayed a decision on new rules for hedge funds Tuesday in a reprieve for Britain, which fears that too-tight regulation could drive the industry from London.

The ministers, meeting in Brussels, decided to take a couple more months to try to reach consensus on the issues, according to E.U. diplomats. The diplomats spoke on background before an official announcement by ministers.

“It’s a good outcome for U.K.,” said an official from the British Treasury....

Corporate Debt Coming Due May Squeeze Credit
www.nytimes.com/2010/03/16/business/16debt.html?ref=global
......2012 also is the beginning of a three-year period in which more than $700 billion in risky, high-yield corporate debt begins to come due, an extraordinary surge that some analysts fear could overload the debt markets.

With huge bills about to hit corporations and the federal government around the same time, the worry is that some companies will have trouble getting new loans, spurring defaults and a wave of bankruptcies.

The United States government alone will need to borrow nearly $2 trillion in 2012, to bridge the projected budget deficit for that year and to refinance existing debt. ....

...Even Moody’s, which is known for its sober public statements, is sounding the alarm.

“An avalanche is brewing in 2012 and beyond if companies don’t get out in front of this,” said Kevin Cassidy, a senior credit officer at Moody’s.

Private equity firms and many nonfinancial companies were able to borrow on easy terms until the credit crisis hit in 2007, but not until 2012 does the long-delayed reckoning begin for a series of leveraged buyouts and other deals that preceded the crisis.

That is because the record number of bonds and loans that were issued to finance those transactions typically come due in five to seven years....

....The result is a potential financial doomsday, or what bond analysts call a maturity wall. From $21 billion due this year, junk bonds are set to mature at a rate of $155 billion in 2012, $212 billion in 2013 and $338 billion in 2014. ....

www.zerohedge.com/article/...r-predicts-market-may-crash-april
von madhedgefundtrader:
Charles Nenner of Charles Nenner research in Amsterdam, for Hedge Fund Radio. Bottom line: A second deflationary tidal wave may hit the US as early as April. The Dow could crash, possibly heading for a double bottom at 6,000, and bonds could go up for the rest of the year. Oh, and by the way, crude oil futures are discounting way with Iran by 2013!

Charles is talking about shorting the 30 year Treasury bond, a trade I’ve been yammering on about for the last several months, and seems to be on the verge of breaking a 29 year bull market trend line. The yield on this paper, now at 4.55%, will gyrate between 4.25% and 5.07% for the next year. Then sometime in 2011 we will break out to 7.5%, possibly very quickly. That would take the bond futures from 119 today to as low as 82.

But that’s just the opening act. Once inflationary fears take hold, the 30 year yield could fly as high as the November, 1981 high of 13%, bringing the futures down to 53. The Armageddon scenarios you hear about today could take it lower still. And this is all in a contract with a margin requirement of only $3,240 for a $100,000 position, giving you 30:1 leverage. No wonder the big hedgies are salivating.

Keeping this interest rate scenario in mind, I then pinned the erudite Dutchman down to calls on every other major market. The S&P 500 may grind back up as high as 1145, and then the next big move is down. The dollar is over extended here, but he sees it eventually moving to $1.18 against the Euro. The yen is ready for a big move down after peaking around here, initially targeting ¥105. Traders should take profits in the Ausie/Euro cross at 68 by May. Crude will peak in the low eighties by the end of March, and then begin a one year decline. Copper could also peak then at $3.73. Gold has peaked already, with Charles bailing on his longs at $1,220/ounce, and we are now in a downtrend that will last for some time, until the above mentioned inflation fears kick in and take it to new highs. Natural Gas looks terrible, having just peaked at $6/MCF. It’s headed downtown, first to $3.80 and then to $1.70. Gulp!

What is the one trade that Charles would put on today? Go long the Ausie/Yen cross, where you go long the Australian dollar and short equal value of Japanese yen at today’ price of $AUS 0.80. Charles’ calls were so hot, my hand was sizzling when I finally put the handset down. ...

Charles developed a huge following after 2007, when he accurately nailed the top in the Dow at 14,500 and urged his clients to put on short positions when everyone else was predicting that the market would keep grinding higher. I have been following Charles daily research reports myself for two years, and found them to be uncannily accurate.

Is It A Bluff Or Is It Battle Preparation? – Several blogs have picked up on reports that the U.S. may be transferring “bunker-buster bombs” to a base in the Indian Ocean. Here’s a part of a story in the Sunday Herald of Scotland:
Hundreds of powerful US “bunker-buster” bombs are being shipped from California to the British island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean in preparation for a possible attack on Iran.
   The Sunday Herald can reveal that the US government signed a contract in January to transport 10 ammunition containers to the island. According to a cargo manifest from the US navy, this included 387 “Blu” bombs used for blasting hardened or underground structures.

   Experts say that they are being put in place for an assault on Iran’s controversial nuclear facilities. There has long been speculation that the US military is preparing for such an attack, should diplomacy fail to persuade Iran not to make nuclear weapons.

   Although Diego Garcia is part of the British Indian Ocean Territory, it is used by the US as a military base under an agreement made in 1971. The agreement led to 2,000 native islanders being forcibly evicted to the Seychelles and Mauritius......www.zerohedge.com/article/...art-cashin-thoughts-iran-shipment

Zew fällt wieder, ist aber besser als erwartet
US-Baubeginne ebenfalls im Rückwärtsgang, aber besser als erwartet (mir war so als hätte ich das schon mal gehört ;-)

Ansonsten warten Alle auf das FED-Sitzungsprotokoll heute abend: Werden 'die Bullen' Ackermann&Co weiterhin Futter bekommen auf Kosten der Allgemeinheit oder werden zur Abwechslung mal Nägel mit Köpfen gemacht?
Ach ja die Frage beantwortet sich von selbst... ich vergaß, dass die Ackermänner selbst ja im FED-Gremium sitzen ;-)

In dieser Woche sind die Fundamentaldaten eher Nebensache (ich weiß, dass sind sie schon länger...), aber jetzt spielen andere Faktoren eine Rolle. Es wird spannend, was das Settlement Niveau im DAX sein wird. Unter 6.000 wird es nicht - gut möglich dass wir noch einen schönen Squeeze Out erleben.

Generell, der erste tripple witch des Jahres ist derjenige Zeitpunkt, der historisch neue Trends ausgelöst hat. Das letzte Jahr ist ein sehr gutes Beispiel dafür. Ab der kommenden Woche - mit einem negativen Newsflow - wäre eine breitere Konsolidierung bis in den Sommer hinein sicherlich denkbar. Diese Woche aber würde ich keine Positionen eingehen. Alles wird rosarot gemalt - siehe aktuelles Beispiel von S&P, die den "Sündenbock" Griechenland von der Watchlist herunternehmen. Solche Aktionen sind sicher nicht vom Zufall geprägt ;-))

I.d.S. viel Erfolg
Contrade121

Deutsche Bank AG, Germany’s biggest bank, paid 2.2 billion euros ($3 billion) in bonuses last year to employees who conduct “high-risk” business.

The lender’s “risk-taker population,” or “employees who can create high-risk positions,” received 921 million euros in cash bonuses, 961 million euros in deferred equity awards and 317 million euros in restricted incentive awards, according to the company’s compensation report published today.

The bank, which declined to identify how many employees are defined as risk takers, gave the group 367 million euros in fixed pay.  Chief Executive Officer Josef Ackermann’s pay rose more than sixfold last year to 9.55 million euros after the Frankfurt-based company returned to profit, helped by a rebound in trading. The bank paid its 77,000 employees compensation and benefits of 11.3 billion euros, or an average of 147,000 euros per worker, down 14 percent from 2007, it said today.

   The risk-taker population included 28 business heads in the group executive committee and management board members and managing directors at selected subsidiaries, the bank said.

www.bloomberg.com/apps/...01087&sid=aNYsbScpeVqo&pos=3

Milchmädchenrechnung: Macht pro "Risktaker": 78571428,57e

Mailt das doch 'mal der Kanzlerin zu (auch mit dem Gehalt von Schröder & Joschka Fischer ) - Deutschland hat kein Problem.....

 

viel Glück

 

kennt sich laut eigenem Bekunden nicht in finanziellen Dingen aus.

Vermutlich ist Sie deshalb auch an der Führungsspitze,heheheheeee.....

David Rosenberg geht völlig d'accord mit Meredith Whitney (# 59085). Anbei die Rosenbergschen Charts dazu.

David Rosenberg evidently agrees with Meredith  Whitney that you should be pessimistic about housing.

He takes a look at the recent data in this morning's Breakfast With Dave note.

The NAHB housing index dropped two points  to 15 in March despite government
resources that have been expended  to put a floor under the residential real
estate market.  This  attests to the view that the problems to the sector are more
secular  in nature than they are cyclical.

Of major concern was the slide in the  homebuyer traffic index, from 12 to 10 in
March — during the era of  the green shoots last spring and summer, this
component surged from  13 to 17.  Only three other times in history has this
measure been  this low. 

Prospects for sale activity over the next  six months also declined two points to
24 in March and this  subindex leads new home sales by six months with a 76%
correlation.  

The S&P 500 homebuilding group has  managed to rally 17% so far this year or a
1,400bps outperformance  vis-à-vis the overall market.  There is scant a sector
that deserves  such status when one takes the fundamental housing backdrop
into  consideration.

  
http://www.businessinsider.com/davide-rosenberg-you-think-housing-is-recovering-check-out-these-charts-2010-3

 

 

 

US-Kongress droht China mit Strafzöllen

HB WASHINGTON. Der US-Kongress will China mit der Androhung von Strafzöllen zwingen, seine Währung gegenüber dem Dollar aufzuwerten. Ein entsprechender überparteilicher Gesetzentwurf wurde am Dienstag im Senat vorgestellt. Er sieht vor, dass eine „Fehlbewertung“ (misalignment) nationaler Währungen vom US-Handelsministerium als Anlass für Strafzölle genommen werden kann. Die USA werfen China seit längerem vor, ......................................

http://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/...fzoellen;2547151

The Federal Reserve held benchmark rates near zero Tuesday and renewed a promise to keep them exceptionally low for an extended period while pointing to increased momentum in the economy's recovery.

 

The central bank's nod to a firmer rebound from the deepest recession in decades hints that it is moving closer to dropping its promise to hold borrowing costs at rock bottom levels, suggesting rate hikes could come within several months.

For a second consecutive meeting, Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Hoenig dissented, saying the commitment to keep rates exceptionally low for an extended period was no longer warranted.

The central bank reiterated that it intends to wrap up purchases of mortgage-related assets by the end of March, but would monitor the economic outlook and financial developments to see if more support is necessary.

The Fed said the labor market was "stabilizing," a view that was more upbeat than at the last meeting in late January, when the policy-setting committee said only that deterioration in the labor market was "abating."

The central bank also said business spending on equipment and software had risen "significantly," also a brighter assessment than the one it gave in late January.

The Fed has held the benchmark federal funds rate near zero since December 2008 to bolster the economy and help it through the most severe financial crisis in generations.

 

Last March, it committed to holding rates very low for "an extended period." The economy resumed growth in the second half of last year, and expanded at a robust 5.9 percent annual clip in the final three months of the year.

Although the unemployment rate held at a lofty 9.7 percent in February as the economy lost 36,000 jobs, some of the lost jobs were pinned on blizzards that hit much of the nation and many economists expect payroll growth as early as March.

Gains in manufacturing activity and retail sales have added to evidence the recovery was gaining traction.

The Fed has allowed special lending facilities to close as financial markets have returned to normal after the crisis, and it recently raised the discount rate it charges banks for emergency loans to 0.75 percent from 0.5 percent.

Fed officials stressed the move was in keeping with the settling of financial markets and was not a precursor to efforts to tighten lending conditions.

However, policymakers have begun to spell out steps they anticipate taking to move away from their easy money policies when the recovery gains steam.

Officials say the Fed would likely start by pulling back some of more than $1 trillion it pumped into the economy during the crisis before it begins raising rates.

ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/03/16/176711/...d-is-a-disaster/
ziemlich aggressiv:  die Eurozone hatte es viel leichter als Griechenland dabei war zu kollabieren.Frankreich hat offenbar erhebliche Probleme ,die 3% Defizit einzuhalten und mit Deutschalnd Schritt zu halten
......    Why does Germany depend for its demand on other people’s readiness to run up debts? Because its own spending is crushed by budget-balancing. GDP growth over the recent cycle may have been pathetic, but consumer spending growth is worse: non-existent. Now, not least because of EMU-driven measures, other people will not be running up debt. Germany will do even worse than before. And yet we are all expected to take their policy views seriously!

Is that fair? Well, for one thing, FT Alphaville wonders whether Lagarde hasn’t also made the heroic assumption that deficit countries would easily glide into becoming competitive economies, once Germany helpfully stepped out of the ring for them.

Not only that, but Stephen Lewis of Monument Securities suggests Lagarde’s petit problème allemand may lie rather closer to home (emphasis ours):

   The most disturbing question is why Mme Lagarde chose to proffer her advice to Germany at this stage. She may have been acting altruistically, with the interests of the Club Med countries close to her heart.

   The fear is, though, that the French economy, which until now has seemed to keep up with the pace Germany has set, is running out of breath. Germany has relatively little fiscal retrenchment to undertake in order to comply with the 3% deficit/GDP limit.

  If France is to match Germany’s progress to the target, it will need to make much deeper budgetary cuts. These would risk plunging the French economy back into recession. The euro experiment is reaching the crucial moment when divergence between French and German economic performance can no longer be disguised. This could be the breakdown point.

Sigh. The eurozone had it all so much easier when Greece was about to collapse.

The Soc Gen strategist has been poring over last week’s Flow of Funds report from the Federal Reserve…
www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/Current/z1.pdf
and comes to the following conclusion:

   US total credit continued to disappear down the plughole, despite the government’s best efforts to inflate us back to prosperity [see chart above]. The current recovery, based in very large part on the end of de-stocking, simply cannot be sustained while credit is disappearing at this debilitating dehydrating rate.
av.r.ftdata.co.uk/files/2010/03/...wn-the-plughole-SocGen.jpg" style="max-width:560px" />
So far, so bearish then. But when will this process of deleveraging end? Unsurprisingly, Edwards thinks it won’t be quick, for several reasons.

One is the level of household leverage:

   With nominal GDP actually managing to inch up some 0.8% in the year to Q4 2009, the economy managed its first baby step along the long and winding road to normality, with US debt dipping under 350% of GDP. Household leverage has returned to 94% from its peak of 96% in both 2007 and 2008. But consider this: at the peak of the Nasdaq bubble, household leverage was just shy of 70%. There is a very, very long way to go.

Another is non financial debt:

   In the case of the non-financial debt/GDP ratio, it remained at a record 240% high at end-2009. We need to “lose” some 60% of GDP worth of debt to get back to where we were at the peak of the Nasdaq bubble (I use this reference point for no other reason than these levels seem obscenely high relative to history at that time). Either way, investors should accept we have a long hard slog ahead.
av.r.ftdata.co.uk/files/2010/03/US-bank-lending-Soc-Gen.jpg" style="max-width:560px" />
But ultimately, Edwards reckons the great deleveraging will only be over when there is an end to the unprecedented decline in the pace of bank lending.And that could take a decade of Japan-like pain.
ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/03/16/176396/...ot-be-sustained/

www.huffingtonpost.com/eliot-spitzer/...ree-card_b_500867.html

....Valukas's findings reveal how Lehman used $50 billion in "repo" loans to fool investors into thinking that it was on sound financial footing. As our December co-author Frank Partnoy recently explained as part of a major report of the Roosevelt Institute, "Make Markets Be Markets," such abusive off-balance accounting was and is endemic. It was a major cause of the financial crisis, and it will lead to future crises.

According to emails described in the report, CEO Richard Fuld and other senior Lehman executives were aware of the games being played and yet signed off on quarterly and annual reports. Lehman's auditor Ernst & Young knew and kept quiet.

The Valukas report also exposes the dysfunctional relationship between the country's main regulatory bodies and the systemically dangerous institutions (SDIs) they are supposed to be policing. The NY Fed, the regulatory agency led by then FRBNY President Geithner, has a clear statutory mission to promote the safety and soundness of the banking system and compliance with the law. Yet it stood by while Lehman deceived the public through a scheme that FRBNY officials likened to a "three card monte routine" (p. 1470). The report states:

   "The FRBNY discounted the value of Lehman's pool to account for these collateral transfers. However, the FRBNY did not request that Lehman exclude this collateral from its reported liquidity pool. In the words of one of the FRBNY's on-site monitors: 'how Lehman reports its liquidity is between Lehman, the SEC, and the world'" (p. 1472).Translation: The FRBNY knew that Lehman was engaged in smoke and mirrors designed to overstate its liquidity and, therefore, was unwilling to lend as much money to Lehman. The FRBNY did not, however, inform the SEC, the public, or the OTS (which regulated an S&L that Lehman owned) of what should have been viewed by all as ongoing misrepresentations.
....We now know from Valukas and from former Treasury Secretary Paulson that the Treasury and the Fed knew that Lehman was massively overstating its on-book asset values: "According to Paulson, Lehman had liquidity problems and no hard assets against which to lend" .....

We believe that the Valukas report cries out for an immediate Congressional investigation.
....If we are to prevent another, potentially more devastating financial crisis, we must understand what happened and who knew what. Many SDIs are hiding debt and losses and presenting deceptive portraits of their soundness. We must stop the three card monte accounting practices that create the potential and reality of fundamental misrepresentation.....

das weiter bullish für diese woche zu sehen, meine kurzfristshorts  hab ich glattgestellt.... leicht verlustig.....