Positiv (für Longs) wertet er, dass die US-Märkte auf die News von der "AIG-Rettung" heute nachmittag mit einem starken Abverkauf reagiert haben (lag auch an MS).
Dick Arms sieht im zweiten Artikel unten ebenfalls bald die Zeit für einen mittelfristigen Long-Zock gekommen. Im Prinzip gilt zurzeit das Umgekehrte vom letzten Sommer. Genauso gefährlich, wie es damals war, auf eine Fortsetzung des "reifen" Uptrends zu setzen, so tückisch ist es jetzt, nach dem Fall der 1200-Marke im SPX auf eine bruchlose Fortsetzung des Downtrends zu setzen - auch wenn Eliott dies jetzt "zwingend nehelegt" mit seiner laufenden Down-Welle.
Bei "dem Tief" - das ich für Mitte/Ende 2009 erwarte - werden wir sicherlich noch bedeutend tiefer stehen als jetzt. Doch der Weg dorthin führt durch eine Berg- und Tal-Landschaft. Als nächstes ist jetzt erst mal wieder ein kleiner Hügel dran. Dahinter soll übrigens ein wunderschön tiefes Tal liegen ;-))
Tepid Response to AIG News Is a Good ThingBy Rev Shark
Street.com Contributor
9/17/2008 8:34 AM EDT
The bailout of AIG (AIG) that many were hoping for has now occurred, but the market isn't doing much celebrating.
After the Bear Stearns bailout, the market enjoyed a very strong multiday bounce before it failed. After the Fannie (FNM) and Freddie (FRE) bailout, the market had a huge one-day bounce that then failed badly the next day.
This time, it doesn't look like the bailout is going to prompt any bounce at all.
The obvious conclusion is that market players now realize that government bailouts are just a bandage that is not going to cure the much deeper, systemic problems that are causing the need for bailouts in the first place.
I'm going to leave it to others to whine and complain about what the government should be doing. I think it's fairly clear that these bailouts are just prolonging the situation. The good news is that the market's hesitancy to rush in and buy this morning is a sign that maybe we can discount the problems and get to a bottom faster.
I've been quite bearish about the market for quite a while, but I am starting to see a glimmer in hope that a better market may lie ahead. Market bottoms are made from despair and a lack of hope. We need market players to get sick and tired of the poor action. It isn't panic, but disgust that will get us to a good low, and with the tepid response to the AIG solution, there is going to be lots of disgust out there.
I can see a scenario where we have a decent end-of-the-year rally, especially if we continue to wallow in misery for a while at this point. For now, we simply have to continue to respect the fact that we are in an ugly downtrend and there is no market leadership.
There is trading to be found playing bounces when we have bouts of panic-selling, but forget building positions. It is too early to trust our precious capital to hope that a turn is coming.
Frankly, I'm happy to see that the market isn't celebrating the AIG bailout. That is the sort of action that is going to help produce a better market much quicker. There might be more pain in the meanwhile, but if we are positioned correctly, so what?
The Time to Buy Is Near, But Not Quite Here
By Dick Arms
Street.com Contributor
9/17/2008 6:53 AM EDT
Out of adversity comes opportunity. But how much adversity? Certainly the last few days reflect a very adverse situation. The buying opportunity will be evident when the bearishness is at its maximum. As readers are aware, I have been bearish for months, and the bear market since almost a year ago justifies that position. But within that downtrend there have been and will continue to be opportunities to make money on the long side. We are getting close to such an opportunity.
But there are a few bothersome factors here. The most important is the Arms Index (unten), which directly measures the level of fear in the marketplace. On Monday it was bullish much of the day, only going to a mildly bearish reading at the dismal close. Tuesday, it was bullish all day.
So, what it was saying was that volume was going to those few stocks that were advancing. That is not what we want to see on a bottom. We want to see capitulation. That means we need a high AI, as traders throw in the towel. The current action implies that, in spite of the screaming of the press, traders are trying to second guess a bounce, and quietly buy. They still need to be scared.
Another bothersome factor is the breaking of the July lows. That means we need to find a new support level. [spricht für Wawidus laufende c-Welle..) Also, I would expect higher volume on an important low, and I would expect higher VIX numbers. We are, I believe, getting close to a good buying opportunity, but I am willing to hold back until the market tells me it is time to move. (Verkleinert auf 57%)
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