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Der USA Bären-Thread

Vontobel Werbung

Passende Knock-Outs auf DAX

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Beiträge: 156.465
Zugriffe: 26.673.766 / Heute: 302
S&P 500 6.581,46 +0,10% Perf. seit Threadbeginn:   +351,10%
 
Kicky:

Heidelberger Druckmaschinen hat es auch erwischt

8
30.05.08 08:09
......`We've had a slump in the U.S.,'' Schreier said today at a press conference at Drupa. ``Customers haven't been buying. It's not that they bought something else. They didn't buy at all.'' www.bloomberg.com/apps/...109&sid=aj7ZOXNzbgAw&refer=exclusive

was die angeblich niedrigeren Öl-Lieferungen an der Golfküste wegen Nebel angeht ,müsste man sich wohl fragen,ob das nicht Venezuela ist oder warum hier derartig weniger Lieferung erfolgten.s.EIA-Bericht oben,2.Tabelle tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip_crude.html  
Laut vesseltrax.com/crude_oil_imports.html   werden hier die Tanker aus Mittelamerika und Afrika auch umgeladen.Da dürfte wohl eher stimmen ,was ich gestern las,dass eben weniger geliefert wird,es gab da eine Tabelle der einzelnen Länder,die bis auf wenige wie Mexiko und Russland und Kasachstan deutlich weniger lieferten als in den Jahren zuvor
Antworten
Kicky:

Oil prices to be probed by US regulator CFTC

5
30.05.08 08:15
angeblich auch ein möglicher Grund:diese unerwartete Prüfung der Ursachen des Preisanstiegs
www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/...5/30/cnoil130.xml
detailliert hier
Antworten
Kicky:

neue Warnsignale im Debt Market

8
30.05.08 08:22
meint Ambrose Evans-Pritchard heute
The debt markets in the US and Europe have begun to flash warning signals yet again, raising fears that the global credit crisis could be entering another turbulent phase.

The cost of insuring against default on the bonds of Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch and other big banks and brokerages has surged over the last two weeks, threatening to reach the stress levels seen before the Bear Stearns debacle. Spreads on inter-bank Libor and Euribor rates in Europe are back near record levels.

Credit default swaps (CDS) on Lehman debt have risen from around 130 in late April to 247, while Merrill debt has spiked to 196. Most analysts had thought the coast was clear for such broker dealers after the US Federal Reserve invoked an emergency clause in March to let them borrow directly from its lending window.
But there are now concerns that the Fed itself may be exhausting its $800bn (£399bn) stock of assets. It has swapped almost $300bn of 10-year Treasuries for questionable mortgage debt, and provided Term Auction Credit of $130bn.

"The steep rise in swap spreads this week is ominous," said John Hussman, head of the Hussman Funds. "The deterioration is in stark contrast to what investors have come to hope since March."

Lehman Brothers took writedowns of just $200m on its $6.5bn portfolio of sub-prime debt in the first quarter even though a quarter of the securities had "junk" ratings, typically worth a fraction of face value.

Willem Sels, a credit analyst at Dresdner Kleinwort, said the banks are beginning to face waves of defaults on credit cards, car loans, and now corporate loans. "We believe we're entering Phase II. The liquidity crisis has eased a little, but the real credit losses are accelerating. The worst is yet to come," he said.The jump in corporate bankruptcies has not yet been picked up by the usual indicators, which tend to lag the market, lulling investors into a false sense of security. The true losses are already known to specialists in the business, said Mr Sels.
www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/...ILC-mostviewedbox
Antworten
Kicky:

GB und F mit Kolonialgebaren in den Ozeanen

7
30.05.08 08:30
da werden derzeit bei der UN um all die kleinen Inselchen ,die noch zu Grossbritannien und Frankreich gehören, die Claims abgesteckt für Olförderungen.Argentinien droht die Falklands als Agression anzusehen
Record prices drive secret underwater land-grab as old enemies capitalise on colonies. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard reports
A fevered scramble for control of the world's seabed is going on - mostly in secret - at a little known office of the United Nations in New York.

Bemused officials are watching with a mixture of awe and suspicion as Britain and France stake out legal claims to oil and mineral wealth as far as 350 nautical miles around each of their scattered islands across the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian oceans. It takes chutzpah. Not to be left out, Australia and New Zealand are carving up the Antarctic seas.......
www.telegraph.co.uk/money/...l=/money/2008/05/27/ccseas127.xml
(Verkleinert auf 56%) vergrößern
Der USA Bären-Thread 166185
Antworten
Malko07:

In den USA sind bis

14
30.05.08 09:30
dato die Konsumentenausgaben nicht gesunken sondern weiter angestiegen. Darin ist heute ein größerer Anteil für Energie enthalten. Die Verschuldung der Verbraucher steigt also weiter an. Das soll sich unter anderem in einer Explosion der Konsumentenkrediten widerspiegeln. Die gibt es bei dem momentanen niedrigen Leitzins sehr billig und ohne umfangreiche Prüfung. Die Zinsen  sind wesentlich niedriger als die reale Inflation. Für den Verbraucher momentan ein Geschäft. Die Fed erzeugt mit ihrem Verhalten damit die nächste Blase im Kreditsektor. Diese Rechnung wird allerdings erst nach den Wahlen präsentiert werden. Diese Blase kann sogar die Rezession (nach US-Messmethoden) verzögern. Da kann man nur sagen: Nichts dazugelernt. Augen zu und durchmogeln bis es kracht.

Das Rohöl schein die von mir prognostizierten 124 $ je Fass anzusteuern, also gleichbleibende Preiserhöhungsgeschwindigkeit. Es wird interessant wie stark die Spekulanten nächste Woche zurückkommen werden.
Antworten
Dreistein:

Noch mal zu Steffens

7
30.05.08 09:59
Aus dem vorgestrigen Mailing:

Ich muss Ihnen heute leider mitteilen, dass ich bereits Ende dieser Woche meine Arbeit für den Investor Verlag aufgeben werde. Ich weiß, es kommt etwas überraschend. Aber, um Spekulationen Vorschub zu leisten, dem liegt kein plötzliches Ereignis zugrunde. Zu den Gründen kann ich nur so viel sagen, dass es hin und wieder auch im Job ähnlich wie in Beziehungen ist, man lebt sich einfach auseinander. Und ich glaube wirklich, das trifft es am ehesten.

Das klingt für mich nicht gerade nach gesundheitlichen Gründen.
Aber sei´s drum...
Antworten
wawidu:

Deutliche Bremsspuren im Einzelhandel

6
30.05.08 10:52

12:50 29.05.08 Hoffman Estates (aktiencheck.de AG) -

Der amerikanische Einzelhandelsgigant Sears Holdings Corp. , der Betreiber der Sears-Kaufhäuser und der Kmart-Discountgeschäfte, gab am Donnerstag bekannt, dass er im ersten Quartal einen Verlust erwirtschaftet hat, was auf verstärkte Preissenkungen und die daraus resultierenden geringeren Margen zurückzuführen ist.
Der Nettoverlust belief sich demnach auf 56 Mio. Dollar bzw. 43 Cents pro Aktie, verglichen mit einem Gewinn von 223 Mio. Dollar bzw. 1,45 Dollar pro Aktie im Vorjahr. Auf bereinigter Basis lag der Verlust bei 53 Cents pro Aktie, nach einem Gewinn von 1,15 Dollar pro Aktie im Vorjahr. Der Umsatz ging um 5,8 Prozent auf 11,07 Mrd. Dollar zurück.



Eigene Ergänzung: Sears hat in Q1/08 rd. 30 % (bereinigt sogar 36,5 %) weniger verdient als im Vorjahresquartal. Trotz einer "Rabatt-Schlacht" sank der Umsatz deutlich.
(Verkleinert auf 90%) vergrößern
Der USA Bären-Thread 166215
Antworten
wawidu:

@kat - # 22539

 
30.05.08 14:11
Sieht das Chartbild des SPX wirklich "so ähnlich" aus wie das des NDX?
(Verkleinert auf 80%) vergrößern
Der USA Bären-Thread 166265
Antworten
Katjuscha:

Manche nehmen es aber auch genau

 
30.05.08 15:33
Okay, der S&P sieht nicht so ähnlich aus. Hatte ich mir gestern nicht extra nochmal angeschaut. In Bezug auf 38TageLinie und überwinden des Verlaufstiefs ist es aber letztlich die gleiche Argumentation. Vor dem Bruch der 1370 braucht man nicht übereilt short zu gehen. Was bringt es denn darauf im Vorfeld zu spekulieren? Die 1,5% Performence machen doch den Kohl auch nicht mehr fett. Da warte ich eben genau wie im Nasdaq100 auf klare Signale. Bei Überschreiten der 1430 würd ich long gehen. Bei Unterschreiten der 1370 würd ich short gehen.
Aux Armes!
Aux Armes!
Nous sommes Babelsberg!
Et nous allons gagner!
Allez blau-weiß !
Allez blau-weiß !
Antworten
CarpeDies:

Chicago Einkaufsmanager-Index gestiegen

4
30.05.08 16:06
Letzte Zuckungen?!?

CHICAGO (dpa-AFX) - In der Region Chicago hat sich die Stimmung der
Einkaufsmanager im Mai überraschend deutlich aufgehellt. Der
Einkaufsmanagerindex sei saisonbereinigt von 48,3 Punkten im Vormonat auf 49,1
Punkte gestiegen, teilte die regionale Einkaufsmanagervereinigung von Chicago am
Freitag mit. Von Thomson Financial News befragte Volkswirte hatten im
Durchschnitt einen Anstieg auf 48,5 Punkte erwartet.

Der Unterindex für bezahlte Preise kletterte von 82,9 Punkten im Vormonat auf
87,5 Punkte. Der Index für neue Aufträge kletterte von 53,0 Punkten auf 56,1
Punkte.

Indexstände von über 50 Punkten signalisieren eine wirtschaftliche Belebung,
während Werte darunter auf einen Rückgang hinweisen. Der Chicago-Index gilt als
zuverlässiger Indikator für den nationalen Einkaufsmanagerindex ISM./FX/jha/js
Antworten
astrid isenberg:

at 22553 kicky, dazu passt

2
30.05.08 16:11
die feststellung von trich....wir, die ezb sind sehr wachsam und allzeit bereit...fragt sich nur , mit welchen handlungsinstrumenten......  wir werden sehen.....
Antworten
CarpeDies:

Uni Michigan: Konsumklima weiter abwärts aber

2
30.05.08 16:12
besser als befürchtet. Typischer fake für Dummies

MICHIGAN (dpa-AFX) - In den USA ist das von der Universität von Michigan
ermittelte Konsumklima höher als zunächst ermittelt ausgefallen. Der
entsprechende Index sei laut vorläufigen Berechnungen von 62,6 Punkten im
Vormonat auf 59,8 Punkte gefallen, hieß es am Freitag in den Kreisen. In der
Erstschätzung war jedoch nur ein Wert von 59,5 Punkten für den Mai ermittelt
worden. Von Thomson Financial News befragte Volkswirte hatten mit einer
Bestätigung der Erstschätzung gerechnet.

Der Index der Universität Michigan gilt als Stimmungsbarometer für das
Kaufverhalten der US-Verbraucher. Der private Konsum ist die wichtigste
Konjunkturstütze der größten Volkswirtschaft der Welt. Angesichts der jüngsten
Finanzmarktturbulenzen steht der Konsum besonders im Blick./FX/js/wiz
Antworten
Katjuscha:

Ab August/September wirds wohl erste Zinserhöhung

2
30.05.08 16:13
geben.
Aux Armes!
Aux Armes!
Nous sommes Babelsberg!
Et nous allons gagner!
Allez blau-weiß !
Allez blau-weiß !
Antworten
metropolis:

Steffens bleibt uns erhalten

5
30.05.08 16:52
Offensichtlich wechselt er zu stockstreet.de und es gibt einen Newsletter "steffens-daily".

www.jochen-steffens.de/
Antworten
permanent:

Don't Even Bother Trying

4
30.05.08 16:57


Some Home Sellers Are Told: Don't Even Bother Trying
HOUSING, SELLERS, HOME SELLERS, REAL ESTATE, BANKS, SUBPRIME, FORCLOSURE
By ReutersReuters
| 30 May 2008 | 07:02 AM ET
In some areas of California, so many foreclosed homes are available to buy on the cheap that real estate agents are discouraging prospective sellers from even putting their houses on the market.

Perhaps the most extreme example of this is Stockton, about 85 miles east of San Francisco, where roughly three of every four homes for sale are in or on the path to foreclosure.


The city's resale market is "pretty much gone," said Cameron Pannabecker, owner of Cal-Pro Mortgage.

"I don't know an agent today who would take your listing unless you're a hard-luck case. There is just too much competition," Pannabecker said.

Properties that at the peak of the market two years ago were selling at $500,000, or appraised at $500,000, are now selling for $200,000, he said.

And because foreclosures dot all areas of Stockton, buyers have their pick of properties, said John Knight, a professor of finance and real estate at Stockton's University of the Pacific Eberhardt School of Business.

"Honestly, there isn't a huge amount of difference between a foreclosed home and a regular home than the prices," Knight said.

May Last for Months

Worse for people trying to sell their homes, lenders in possession of houses and condominiums may keep their fire-sale in full swing for months to come to attract investors to a market near the top of U.S. surveys of areas hit by foreclosures.

"It's a tough market to be a normal seller," said Stockton real estate agent Michael Blower of Blower Realtors.

"I'll really ask them, 'Do you need to sell?' Because your competition are banks who want to clean it off their books."

Calling up listings on a database, Blower noted just over 3,500 of nearly 5,000 local homes listed for sale are in some stage of foreclosure. "There are more listings coming," he added.

More listings would add pressure on local home prices. But they may only hold prices down rather than drag them lower because investors are slowly coming to Stockton in search of bargains, and in some cases they are in bidding wars, albeit at comparatively low prices.

"We heard yesterday there were 36 offers on one house," said Terry Hull Sr., a veteran Stockton property manager and owner of property management company W.T. Hull. Hull said he, too, may soon put offers on local properties because they have become so cheap: "We're going to buy about 50 houses because we know it's an opportunity you rarely see."

Stockton's home prices surged earlier this decade amid a building boom seizing on skyrocketing prices in the San Francisco Bay area displacing middle-class buyers. Many headed to Stockton, historically a sleepy agricultural distribution center, and neighboring towns more than hour's driving commute east.

Routine home financing, as in many other markets, was in the form of risky adjustable-rate mortgages. When low interest rates reset, many of those mortgages became too expensive to maintain, triggering a wave of defaults and foreclosures.

The Renting Option

Distressed borrowers who manage to sell their houses are in many cases able to rent equivalent properties for about half the cost of their monthly mortgage payments.

"I don't know of anybody who has been foreclosed who is moving into an apartment," said Paul Jacobson, an associate at W.T. Hull.


Investors have taken notice that rental demand in Stockton is on the upswing while home prices have fallen, providing an opportunity to turn foreclosures into profits, said Cesar Dias, a Stockton real estate agent who arranges bus tours of foreclosed properties.

Dias said one foreclosed home he showed last month sold for $80,000, or $11,000 above its asking price, after 12 days on the market. The two-bedroom, one-bathroom house may rent for up to $1,000 a month and generate a monthly profit of up to $400.

Investors likewise pounced on a three-bedroom, three-bathroom home in a gated subdivision that Dias just showed. It has at least three offers at its $220,000 asking price, he said.

"People are cherry-picking and finding the right ones," Dias said. "They see prices are at a bottom." "Do I see the tide turning? Yes," Dias added.

Antworten
CarpeDies:

@Katjuscha

6
30.05.08 16:58
Ich verstehe dich nicht ganz, wenn Du ab 1430 im S&P long gehst; ich würde da genau short gehen, weil die Fundamentals ganz klar eine andere Sprache sprechen.

Jetzt wird noch mit billigen Verbraucherkrediten und den Almosen von der Regierung die Zeit bis zur Wahl überbrückt, komme was wolle; wenn dann Obama erst im Amt ist, spätenstens kracht dann, da
a) die Banken die Zinsen für Verbraucherkredite massiv anheben müssen, denn es wird Privatpleiten ohne Ende geben; hier funktioniert dann das Spielchen der Verbraucher, einfach den Hausschlüssel auf den Tresen der Banken zu legen nicht mehr
b) die Inflation den Verbrauchern im grossen Stil den knock out verpasst

Man kann also für das System nur hoffen, dass sich die Banken bis in den Herbst eine ordentliche Kapitaldecke angefressen haben für den Sturm der Verbrauer-Insolvenzen, der sich gerade mit den Niedrigzinsen zusammenbraut.
Bis dahin wird die Fed die Zinsen nicht noch viel weiter senken können,
- da die eh schon bei nur noch 2% sind und
- Firmen vom Kaufkraftverlust der Verbarucher dann so gebeutelt werden, dass die Inflation unbedingt gestoppt werden muss. Spätestens dann jubeln die Bären
Antworten
thomweh1:

metro,

 
30.05.08 17:00
schon, ich lese auch gerne steffens.

Ich bin auch im Investor-Verlag und hab Andreas Wolf abboniert. Was hälst Du den von dem und seinen Analysen?

Schönen Gruss


TOM
Antworten
CarpeDies:

Consumer Spending and Personal Income Slow

3
30.05.08 17:07
Aus der New York Times

WASHINGTON — Consumer spending barely budged in April while growth in personal income slowed, even though the government started sending out billions of dollars in economic stimulus payments.

The Commerce Department said in a report on Friday that consumer spending edged up a small 0.2 percent in April, just half the 0.4 percent rise in March. When inflation is excluded, the performance was even weaker, showing no gain in spending after excluding price changes.

Incomes rose 0.2 percent in April, just half of the March increase. That performance would have been even weaker without a boost as the government began mailing out the first of $106.7 billion in economic stimulus payments.

Consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of total economic activity, is being closely watched at present for signs that the economy could be slipping into a recession.

The government reported Thursday that the overall economy, as measured by the gross domestic product, grew at an annual rate of 0.9 percent, slightly better than the 0.6 percent G.D.P. growth originally estimated. However, growth at that level remained very anemic and some analysts are worried that the G.D.P. could slip into negative territory in the current quarter.

The Bush administration is hoping that a recession can be averted with the help of the economic stimulus payments.

The Commerce report said that those payments, which did not start until the end of April, totaled $7.8 billion at an annual rate for that month.

The small 0.2 percent rise in personal incomes in April was the weakest gain since a 0.2 percent rise in January. Commerce analysts said it would have been an even weaker 0.1 percent without the economic stimulus payments.


Incomes were depressed because private wages and salaries fell at an annual rate of $18.2 billion in April, the biggest setback in a year. This weakness comes in part from four consecutive months of job layoffs, starting in January.

The economy is being battered by a series of blows, from a prolonged slump in housing to a tight credit market and soaring energy prices. All of these factors have rattled consumer confidence, sending it to levels not seen in more than two decades.

For April, consumer prices, measured by an inflation gauge tied to consumer spending, rose 0.2 percent, down from a 0.3 percent rise in March. However, the rise in inflation was a more modest 0.1 percent in April when volatile food and energy costs are excluded.

The personal savings rate, the amount of spending compared to after-tax incomes, held steady at 0.7 percent in April, the same level as in February and March.
Antworten
Katjuscha:

#22566 carpedies

 
30.05.08 17:19
Muss jetzt leider los. Vielleicht antworte ich dir heute am späten Abend darauf.
Aux Armes!
Aux Armes!
Nous sommes Babelsberg!
Et nous allons gagner!
Allez blau-weiß !
Allez blau-weiß !
Antworten
metropolis:

tom

4
30.05.08 17:43
Wolf habe ich auch abboniert, lese ihn aber sehr selten. Er ist mir zu sehr Chartist und analysiert nur mit kurzfristigem Horizont, meist für den aktuellen Tag. Das entspricht nun mal nicht meinem Anlagestil.

Steffens war auch nicht immer auf meiner Linie, da stets zu optimistisch. Aber es ist interessant, einen fundierte (!) andere Meinung zu lesen. Steffens und Gehrt haben sich da wunderbar ergänzt.
Antworten
thomweh1:

danke Dir metro

 
30.05.08 17:58
für Deine schnelle Antwort.
Antworten
CarpeDies:

Doppelt gestraft

5
30.05.08 18:55
Echt krass: wenn Häuser immer weniger wert werden und eine Versteigerung ansteht, dann ist die Differenz von aufgenommenen Schulden und Restwert des Hauses zu versteuern und zwar für die Leute, die diese Immobilie nicht selbst genutzt haben...

Lose Homes, Pay More Tax
By JONATHAN GLATER
Published: May 30, 2008

Some of the biggest losers in the real estate slump are not purchasers of mansions they could not afford. They are buyers of second homes — or third ones, for that matter — who are sitting on a tax time bomb.
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Jim Wilson/The New York Times

Many of these people will lose their properties in foreclosure and then stagger into bankruptcy under the weight of a sizable tax bill. While Congress has granted some tax relief to people who lose their primary homes, there is no such aid for those who fall behind on payments on a getaway condo in Las Vegas, a retirement home on the Florida coast or an old house that they are renting out for income.

Bankruptcy lawyers say they are seeing a wave of foreclosures among owners of second homes in such a position, owners who thought they had found sound advice for financial security.

Two years ago, Lilia Garcia and her husband, Jesus, bought their dream house in Linden, Calif., for $535,000 and financed it in part by taking out a bigger loan backed by their previous house in nearby Stockton. They decided to hang onto the Stockton house and rent it out, believing that it would more than pay for itself and could be sold years in the future to help pay for college for their two children.

“We wanted to make it an investment,” Ms. Garcia said. “I should’ve sold it.”

But the Garcias, who earn about $65,000 a year, fell behind on their payments after their tenant moved out and the interest rate on their mortgage rose, bringing their monthly payments on the rental home to nearly $2,700 a month, from less than $1,000. They view foreclosure as inevitable; they have not paid the mortgages on either house for months and now rent a home in Linden.

Then they discovered that they could expect a painful tax on the rental house.

Like many others, the Garcias borrowed more than their homes are now worth. The difference between the amount they borrowed and the rental home’s sale price in foreclosure will ultimately be considered taxable income as forgiven debt.

If the rental house sells for $160,000, which is about what they paid for it in 2003, they may still owe tax on $120,000 — the difference between the sale price and the $280,000 they borrowed against it over the years. That could mean a tax bill of more than $30,000.

“I just thought we would file for bankruptcy and everything would be clear. We’d start all over again,” said Ms. Garcia, who is a medical assistant in a doctor’s office in Stockton. Now she and her husband are waiting to see what price the house brings before seeking bankruptcy. “It’s bad.”

J. Scott Bovitz, a bankruptcy lawyer in Los Angeles, says the problem is widespread. “I’ve seen people not just buying properties to live in, they’re buying properties to become mini-Donald Trumps.”

Even if the condition of the economy generally improves, borrowers will face the double problem of foreclosure and then taxes, unless home prices begin to climb rapidly. And no one sees that as likely.

“My suspicion is most lawyers, even bankruptcy lawyers, aren’t focused on this issue,” said Charles Hastings, a bankruptcy lawyer in Stockton who is advising the Garcias on the tax ramifications.

Congress, deciding the tax impact was just too much for the nation’s already distressed homeowners, passed limited relief at the end of last year. Under the Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act, which is effective from Jan. 1, 2007, through Dec. 31, 2009, a homeowner does not have to pay tax on debt forgiven by a lender — if the loan is backed by the property the homeowner lives in.

The boom in real estate in recent years prompted a great many people — though no one seems to know exactly how many — to jump into the market with additional real estate. Some did so a few times, buying multiple properties with the hope of selling them for a quick profit. Several bankruptcy lawyers, who say they are busier than ever, compare the real estate frenzy of recent years to the California gold rush of the 1850s.

According to the National Association of Realtors, there are about 7.5 million vacation homes in the country, about 10 percent of the number of owner-occupied homes. According to the association, from 2002 to 2007, the number of vacation homes rose 18 percent, more than three times the growth in the number of owner-occupied homes and the growth in investor-owned units.

The financial distress wrought by ownership of second homes and investment properties is hard to quantify but significant, according to the association. It ripples through markets that have a lot of second homes as the full-time residents there find their home values falling in tandem.

While 60 percent of the foreclosures in Las Vegas last year involved properties held by nonresidents, in the first three months of this year the proportion has reversed: 60 percent involve owner-occupied houses, according to Applied Analysis, an economic and fiscal policy research firm in Nevada.

“Investors are easy in and easier out, and who’s left holding the bag are the individual homeowners,” said Jeremy Aguero, principal analyst at the company.

Buyers of second homes seem to have thought that if they did not borrow against these homes, they were wasting equity, said Cathleen C. Moran, a bankruptcy lawyer in Mountain View, Calif. “It comes from looking at your house as a piggy bank,” Ms. Moran said. People borrowed against homes without realizing that the debts would become “a bombshell that’s going to go off under you at some point,” she said.

For owners with a potential tax bill, there is one way to minimize the damage. Alan J. Fisher, a bankruptcy lawyer in Boca Raton, Fla., said that negotiating with a lender could prove beneficial. In one of his cases, he said, a lender agreed that foreclosure “fully satisfies all obligations under the loan.” With that statement, he hoped, there would be no outstanding unpaid debt reported by the bank that the Internal Revenue Service could treat as income.

But Mr. Fisher said he was not sure how the tactic would hold up in court. “I sure don’t want to be the one litigating it.”  
Antworten
pfeifenlümmel:

Ölpreis kann bald wieder steigen,

5
30.05.08 20:16
zumindest ist nicht auf einen Absturz zu schließen.
(Verkleinert auf 70%) vergrößern
Der USA Bären-Thread 166330
Antworten
relaxed:

#22572 Man lasse es sich auf der Zunge zergehen:

3
30.05.08 20:25
Jahreseinkommen 65000$,
Taking out a BIGGER loan backed by the previous house!
Um ein 535000$ Haus zu finanzieren. ;-))
Antworten
wawidu:

Na so was!

5
30.05.08 21:10
Die Ratingagenturen sind Lügner und Betrüger. Dies ist mittlerweile Konsens der Marktteilnehmer, die nicht zur Finanzbranche gehören. Doch seltsamerweise ist Moody´s nicht gleich Moody´s. Dort "reden" Analysten neuerdings mit "gespaltener Zunge":


Swap Traders Don't Trust Moody's, S&P
Bloomberg is reporting Moody's Implied Ratings Lab Reveals Ambac, MBIA Turning to Junk.


Moody's Investors Service has created a new unit that surprises even its own director.

The team from Moody's Analytics, which operates separately from Moody's ratings division, uses credit-default swap prices as an alternative system of grading debt. These so-called implied ratings often differ significantly from Moody's official grades.

The implied ratings frequently show that swap traders think debt is in more danger of defaulting than Moody's credit ratings signify. And here's the kicker: The swaps traders are usually right.

"When I first saw this product, my reaction was, 'Goodness gracious, Moody's has got a product that is basically publicizing where the market disagrees with Moody's,'" says David Munves, managing director for credit strategy research at Moody's Analytics.

Using the CDS market, Munves's unit rates both MBIA and Ambac Caa1. That's seven notches below junk and 15 below the official Moody's rating.

Swap traders see there's a huge risk that Ambac and MBIA will default, hedge fund adviser Tim Backshall says. He says swap traders don't trust S&P's and Moody's investment-grade ratings for the companies

"The only thing holding them at AAA is simply the model that the rating agencies claim they use to judge that capital and the fact they know that if they downgrade the companies, it'll push them into default," says Backshall, of Walnut Creek, California- based Credit Derivatives Research LLC.

The rating companies say their grades are correct.

"Moody's will not refrain from taking a credit rating action based on the potential effect of the action," says company spokesman Anthony Mirenda.
My Comment: There is hardly a person in the world that believe you Anthony. You have a severe credibility problem as well as a business model totally dependent on government sponsorship and based on conflicts of interest.

Munves says that over one year, the implied ratings have been a more accurate predictor of defaults than Moody's ratings. The Moody's unit reports that implied ratings for one year have a 91 percent accuracy ratio compared with an 82 percent ratio for Moody's official ratings.

"The Moody's accuracy ratio is consistently lower," he says.
The Surprising Thing

The surprising thing is that Moody's is surprised by their own findings.

Ambac (ABK) Daily Chart



click on chart for sharper image

MBIA (MBI) Daily Chart



click on chart for sharper image

Is there any explanation for maintaining AAA ratings of MBIA and Ambac through this debacle other than incompetence or corruption? If there is someone let me know what it is.

It's not just swap traders who do not trust the rating agencies, I do not think anyone does. How can they?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/...rust-moodys-s.html
 
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