er sieht die wahre Gefahr in steigenden Zinsen für Spanien und Italien und fährt dann fort zu sagen ,dass der EFSF vielleicht für GR,Irland und Portugal reicht ,aber gewiss nicht für diese beiden Länder...der EFSF müsste verdoppelt oder verdreifacht werden
und er müsste richtig kapitalisiert werden...darauf wird man sich heute nicht einigen und deswegen wird das Problem nicht gelöst werden
und er hat Zweifel,ob GR seinen Verpflichtungen nachkommen kann,wenn es nach dem Default immer noch mit 130% verschuldet ist
it appears that the eurozone is forcing Greece into a selective default. As part of such a package, short-term Greek debt will be more or less forcibly converted into long-term debt. The wretched bank tax is mercifully off the table. And the European financial stability facility will most likely be allowed to purchase Greek debt at a discount. Let us not mince words here. This would be a default, the first by a western industrialised country in a generation. I am not quite sure how it is possible for the European Central Bank to agree to this, or to all of this. But I will surely be intrigued to hear how Jean-Claude Trichet will manage to be consistent with what he said a few days ago. There are also reports that the eurozone leaders may accept a more flexible EFSF beyond those bond purchases.
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The problem of the eurozone is not Greece, or some other small country on its periphery. The existential danger is the rise in market interest rates of Italy and Spain, two large countries in the eurozone’s core. To state the goal of today’s meeting in simple terms would be to say: the survival of the eurozone depends on whether its leaders will be able to take decisions that would allow Italy and Spain, and everybody else as well, to remain inside the eurozone on a sustainable basis. Greece is now just a side-show
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EFSF:the ceiling will not be big enough to bring in Spain, let alone Italy. To do that that the ceiling would have to be doubled, or trebled. Without this increase, it is inconceivable that the eurozone can get through this crisis intact. One could think of other constructions, such as having no fixed limits at all or sliding limits. The structure of the EFSF would have to be changed if it was going to be made this big. It would have to be properly capitalised. Italy’s 18 per cent share in the EFSF would otherwise not be credible.
If one accepts the logic of an involuntary private-sector participation, and the advent of a selective default rating, then one should better make sure that one ends up in a situation where Greece defaults, and yet is still not in a position to repay its debt in the long run.
What’s the point of default in such a scenario? If the final construction leads to a reduction in the Greek debt from an estimate year-end level of 175 per cent of gross domestic product to 130 per cent after a default – with no changes to its real exchange rate – it is not clear at all how Greece can be solvent at such a still high level of debt.
...blogs.ft.com/the-a-list/2011/07/21/...y-to-jump/#axzz1SkumBZWN
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