Risk analysts and intelligence agencies fear that Egypt's uprising may set off escalating protests in the tense Shia region of Saudi Arabia, home to the world's richest oilfields.
www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/...r-Saudi-oil-fields.html
"Yemen, Sudan, Jordan and Syria all look vulnerable. However, the greatest risk in terms of both probability and severity is in Saudi Arabia," said a report by risk consultants Exclusive Analysis.
While markets have focused on possible disruption to the Suez Canal, conduit for 8pc of global shipping, it is unlikely that Egyptian leaders of any stripe would cut off an income stream worth $5bn (£3.1bn) a year to the Egyptian state.
"I don't think the Egyptians will ever dare to touch it," said Opec chief Abdalla El-Badri, adding that the separate Suez oil pipeline is "very well protected". The canal was blockaded after the Six Days War in 1967.
There has been less focus on the risk of instability spreading to Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province, headquarters of the Saudi oil giant Aramco. The region boasts the vast Safaniya, Shaybah and Ghawar oilfields. "This is potentially far more dangerous," said Faysal Itani, Mid-East strategist at Exclusive.
"The Shia are 10pc of the Saudi population. They are deeply aggrieved and marginalised, and sit on top of the kingdom's oil reserves. There have been frequent confrontations and street fights with the security forces that are very rarely reported in the media," he said.
The Saudi Shia last rose up in mass civil disobedience in the "Intifada" of 1979, inspired by the Khomeini revolution in Iran. Clashes led to 21 deaths. Mr Itani said it is unclear whether the Saudi military could cope with a serious outbreak of protest in the province.
Saudi King Abdullah is clearly alarmed by fast-moving events in Egypt and the Arab world. In a statement published by the Saudi press agency he said agitators had "infiltrated Egypt to destabilise its security and incite malicious sedition".
The accusations seem aimed at Iran's Shia regime, which has openly endorsed the "rightful demands" of the protest movement. There is deep concern in Sunni Arab countries that Iran is attempting to create a "Shia Crescent" through Iraq, Bahrain and into the Gulf areas of Saudi Arabia, hoping to become the hegemonic force in global oil supply.
Goldman Sachs said the Mid-East holds 61pc of the world's proven oil reserves – and 36pc of current supply – which may compel global leaders to make "concentrated efforts" to stabilise the region. The bank said high levels of affluence should shield Saudi Arabia and the Gulf's oil-rich states from "political contagion".
However, a third of Saudi Arabia's 25m residents are ill-assimilated foreigners and the country faces a "youth bulge", with unemployment at 42pc among those aged 20 to 24.
Nima Khorrami Assl, a Gulf expert at the Transnational Crisis Project, said Shi'ites have been "stigmatised as a result of excessive paranoia since Iran's Islamic Revolution" and face systemic barriers in education and jobs. "Should the Gulf states do nothing or attempt to preserve the status quo, social unrest becomes inevitable. The current situation is inherently unstable," he told Foreign Policy Journal.
Exclusive Analysis said Egypt's revolt had gone beyond the point of no return as protesters plan a 1m stong rally on Tuesday, with president Hosni Mubarak likely to be ousted within 30 days.
John Cochrane, the group's global risk strategist, said the regime has so far refrained from ordering the army to crush protesters knowing that many officers will refuse to obey. "If asked to use lethal force, it is questionable whether the army's cohesion will hold together," he said.
The Muslim Brotherhood, the best-organised of the diffuse protest movement, has reached out to the military, praising its "long and honourable history", but it has also begun to set up its own populist militias to protect the streets.
A future government – with the Brotherhood pulling some strings – is expected to renationalise parts of industry, shifting away from "free-market" policies used to weaken the labour unions and steer contracts to an incestuous elite. Ezz Steel and other parts of the business empire of Ahmed Ezz may be seized, as well as infrastructure assets linked to corrupt ministers.
The Brotherhood's "old guard" has so far controlled its hotheads but the organisation is close to Hamas in Gaza. Israel may soon find that it can no longer count on a secure southern border, even if Egypt's peace treaty remains in name.
The outbreak of Arab populism vindicates claims by US neo-conservatives that the region is ripe for change, but this is not what Washington had in mind. "US interests are the first casualty," said Mr Itani.
Fairly or unfairly, America is tarred with the Mubarak brush. Cairo may switch allegiance to the rising powers of Turkey, India, and above all, China.
etwas anders sieht das dieser Report,der für die Golfstaaten auf das grosszügige Subventionssystem verweist,so dass die Leute nicht hungern müssen
www.thepeninsulaqatar.com/middle-east/...protests-experts.html
.....In Gulf Cooperation Council states, most of which are rich in oil or gas, “the people have very little economic incentive to induce political change,” said Alanoud Al Sharekh, a senior fellow with the International Institute for Strategic Studies - Middle East.
“We will never see Tunisia or Egypt-style revolts because we are fairly rich welfare states, and kinship, tribal-based politics ensure a very different kind of rhetoric between ruled and ruler” than in Egypt and Tunisia, Sharekh said.
In one example of Gulf welfare programmes, Kuwait’s parliament last week approved a grant from Emir H H Sheikh Sabah Al Ahmad Al Sabah for 1,000 dinars ($3,580) to each Kuwaiti citizen plus free distribution of essential food items for 14 months.
Other countries in the GCC — which is made up of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab emirates — also provide benefits such as free plots of land, housing or subsidised fuel and energy. In the Gulf, “you have allegiance to the head of the state, to the sheikh or an emir or a king, and it is his job to look after your welfare,” Sharekh said. The GCC states are all ruled by family dynasties, most of which have been in power for centuries.
Bahrain and Kuwait both have elected parliaments, but the sovereigns there still maintain significant power. Bahrain, ruled by a Sunni dynasty but with a Shia majority, was transformed into a constitutional monarchy following Shia-led unrest in the 1990s. Though oil production there is dwindling, “even in Bahrain, it’s still a welfare state — the government subsidises a lot of utilities,” Sharekh said. Because of Gulf welfare systems, “even if politically, (citizens) are motivated to share the power base, they are not motivated to get any sort of regime change.”
However, when asked if protests elsewhere in the Arab world could encourage change in the Gulf, she said that “I think the ruling elites in the GCC might be ‘inspired’ to introduce changes.”
Sami Alfaraj, the president of the Kuwait Centre for Strategic Studies, also pointed to economic well-being as curbing the potential for anti-government protests in the Gulf. “The system of subsidies that governments give” in the Gulf means “there is kind of a wide and large satisfaction with the state, and this has created a sense that if you topple the regime, then you will not get better,” he said. “It is very difficult... to think of a popular sentiment based on living conditions,” Alfaraj said.
He noted that natural disasters can spark protests, such as when deaths from recent flooding in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia lead to demonstrations there. On Friday, dozens of people gathered in Jeddah following prayers to protest after 10 people were killed and three others missing from flooding that Jeddah’s infrastructure failed to contain. The protesters were quickly dispersed by police.
With a local population of about 18 million people, Saudi Arabia is the most populous Gulf state, and faces challenges from unemployment. It has seen limited past attempts at protests for political change that have been quashed by police.
Asked if protests elsewhere in the Arab world could spur reforms in the Gulf, Alfaraj said “we see that reforms are there already in the pipeline,” and they are “not driven by outside action.” However, the possibility of protests and unrest could “drive Gulf states to take greater guard against such things,” he said. “But in general, they will take precautionary measures, they will talk probably about new initiatives, and try to really not to show them that they are a response to what is happening in Egypt or Tunisia.”......
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