Der USA Bären-Thread

Kakophonie unter der Regierungen der Eurozone wieder zulegt. Der Euro steigt sonst in ungesunde Höhen:

xi.onvista.de/...URR_FROM=EUR&CURR_TO=USD&QUALITY=RLT" style="max-width:560px" />

der Euro attraktiv, weil die europ. Bonds bei Inflation bessere Zinsen bieten werden als die USA. Wer also jetzt seine Dollar in kurzlaufenden  europ.bonds anlegt,  sattelt in Jahr auf Longbonds um - schlagen wird er die auf Niedrigzins subventionierten T-Bonds immer.

Jetzt ebenfalls in der Mainstreampresse angekommen:

Zuerst das Immobilien-Debakel, dann das Banken-Beben. Jetzt kollabieren die Zinspapiere der Städte und Staaten – viele werden Leute entlassen müssen.
„Municipal Bonds“ – der Begriff klingt so unscheinbar. So technokratisch. Und doch verbirgt sich hinter ihm ein gigantischer Markt: Fast 3000 Milliarden Dollar haben sich die amerikanischen Städte und Bundesstaaten mithilfe dieser Zinspapiere geliehen.

Investoren wie Warren Buffet hatten es schon lange vorausgesagt: Das nächste Opfer der Finanzkrise werden die großen unterfinanzierten Städte – von New York bis San Francisco. Und die chronisch klammen Bundesstaaten – wie Illinois oder New Jersey.

weiter: www.focus.de/finanzen/doenchkolumne/...ollt-an_aid_591167.html

bei Staatsanleihen von allen Euroländern mit anerkannter Solvenz sinken momentan die Kurse. Wegen der guten wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung im Euroland werden sie es sehr wahrscheinlich weiter tun. Der aktuell kleine Renditeunterschied bei kurzen Restlaufzeiten und zusätzlich notwendigen Währungsabsicherungskosten lassen die beschrieben Spekulation als nicht sinnvoll erscheinen.

Man könnte behaupten, diese Spekulanten kennen die zukünftige Währungsentwicklungen. Dazu kann ich nur sagen, die kennt keiner.

Quelle: David Rosenberg, Breakfast with Dave v. 17.1.11

U.S. CONSUMER HITTING AN AIR POCKET?

Well, that January consumer sentiment number was nothing to write home about. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index sagged to 72.7 from 74.5 in December and is a good 20 points shy of the level that in the past typified an overall economic expansion. Sadly for those expecting a job market bounce in January, not only are initial jobless claims now back on the rise but the University of Michigan index of ‘facts-on-the-ground’ current conditions sank from 85.3 to 79.8 in January, a three-month low and the steepest decline since last July when double-dip was the flavour du jour. Buying conditions for large household goods slumped to 129 from 140 ― auto buying plans fell to a three-month low.

Beneath the veneer of all the enthusiasm is the reality that real organic incomes are under pressure. So with that energy-induced 0.5% MoM hike in the December U.S. CPI, real wages contracted 0.4% and are down now in three of the past four months. The pace over the past six months is now running just 15 basis points north of zero ― well below the 3.6% trend in mid-2010. The three-month trend, which was more than 5% at an annual rate back in mid-2010, has since swung to a -0.5% annualized pace.

The added hurdle is that, according to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey, household income expectations for the year ahead collapsed nine points in January to an 11-month low of 116. That is in nominal terms. The real story was the similar-sized slide in “real” income expectations from 64 to 55, which puts this index at the third lowest level on record (going back nearly 60 years) ― only lower in the severe 1980 and 2008 recessions.

So all of a sudden we are starting to see the U.S. consumer waver just a touch. Retail sales came in a tad below expected at +0.6% MoM in December and this headline was indeed exaggerated because the “core control” number (the one that goes into the consumer spending segment of the GDP data, which excludes gas, autos, and building materials) was only up 0.2%, quite a break from the +0.6% average over the prior three months. Adjusted for inflation, the real spending data are now showing signs of either stagnation or mild contraction. We would have to say that it is now abundantly clear that November holiday sales “stole” activity from December. How else would you explain why clothing sales fell 0.2%, electronics sagged 0.6%, and department stores plunged 1.9% and were down in three of the past four months.

MARKET MUSINGS & DATA DECIPHERING

Breakfast with Dave

SQUARING THE ROUND TABLE

The Barron’s Roundtable was even more raucous than usual and there were
some truly remarkable comments that need reprinting:

Felix Zulauf: “You also have a tremendous social division. In the U.S., the top
20% of the population owns 93% of the financial assets. That tells you the
average guy is in bad shape. He spends what he makes, and at the end of the
month he’s even."

Fred Hickey added to that sentiment: “Last August, things weren’t looking so
well. Then Ben Bernanke gave a speech in Jackson Hole that implied the Fed
would engage in quantitative easing, and from that point forward, the Dow
added 1,400 points. Gasoline prices went from $2.65 a gallon to well over
$3.00. a $50 billion hit to consumers. Food prices rose to record levels. It
caused a major imbalance in the economy. If you own financial assets, you’re
doing quite well. If you don’t, you’re getting hit by higher food prices, higher
insurance costs, higher everything, and you’re not getting any interest on your
savings... The economy has structural problems and we aren’t dealing with
them. Money-printing won’t work, yet that’s the prescription we continue to give
the patient. If the Fed keeps printing after June we’ll have higher gasoline and
food prices and more imbalances until this ends. And at some point, it will end,
because the dollar will fall apart. What we are doing now makes everything
appear rosy. But it is devastatingly terrible policy for the long-term.”

Geez, where have you heard that before. Hope Fred isn’t getting any hate mail.

Marc Faber: “If you measure the stock market not in dollars but gold, it is down
80% since 1999. I no longer regard the U.S. dollar as a valid unit of account.
People shouldn’t value their wealth in dollars because one day, in dollars,
everyone will be a billionaire."

That zinger is too good.

Bill Gross one-upped that one: “We are looking at a currency that almost
certainly will depreciate relative to other, stronger currencies in developing
countries that have lower levels of debt and higher growth potential. And, on
the short end of the yield curve, we are looking at creditors receiving negative
real interest rates for a long, long time. That, in effect, is a default. Ultimately,
creditors and investors are at the behest of a central bank and policymakers
that will rob them of their money.”

As for the market action for 2011, we have two giants in our camp.

Zulauf: “The market will range between 10% up and 10% down.”

Faber: “I expect to see the market move up and down at least 20% this year, as
it did in 2010.”

The case for classic long-short hedge fund strategies is compelling if these two
pundits are anywhere close to being right.

Jimmy Rogers wasn’t on the roundtable but in a separate interview with
Bloomberg, he may well have had the best quote of the past decade:

“Paper money is made of cotton, and I’m long cotton, by the way. One reason
I’m long cotton is because Dr. Bernanke is out there running the printing
presses as fast as he can.”

How great is that, short the U.S. dollar and go long cotton.

Another non-roundtable member that had a quote worth mentioning over the
weekend was Christina Romer in her Economic View piece on page 5 of the
Sunday NYT biz section (titled What Obama Should Say About the Deficit). Talk
about brutal honesty:

“President Obama needs to explain that while these cuts will be painful, there is
no way to solve our problems without shared sacrifice.”

“Shared sacrifice”. Wow. For a nation that sent kids overseas to fight wars
against terror states while cutting taxes here at home to stimulate consumption
of iPads and diamond necklaces. A nation so fearful of a “double dip’ that it
raided Social Security to keep the retailer cash registers ringing for the New
Year.

So what Ms. Romer had to say about the need to stop the excessive borrowing
madness. The U.S. government now spends 1.6 for every one dollar it brings in
with respect to revenues. was telling: “Even with bold spending cuts, there will
still be a large deficit. The only realistic way to close the gap is by raising
revenues. Some of it can and should come from higher taxes on the rich. But
because there are far more middle-class families than wealthy ones, much of
the additional money will have to come from ordinary people.”

The era of spending-beyond-our means denial is on its last legs.

TIME TO FADE THE MUNI HYPE

There is a clear buyers’ strike in the market for state and local government debt
that is largely based on fear and misperception. The mass selling of muni’s,
which represent the bedrock of the U.S. economy, is incredible. nine
consecutive weeks of net redemptions totalling $16.5 billion ($1.5 billion in the
January 15 week). Talk about fertile ground for a huge long-term buying
opportunity.

First, even if you buy into the default talk, look at the yield protection you get
now. There are some long-term muni’s trading north of eight percent. even
higher than junk bonds (a premium of over 100bps!). Long-term AAA-rated
muni’s are now trading well north of five percent or 116% vis-a-vis Treasury
bonds (typically, muni bond yields are equivalent to 82% of Treasury yields given
their tax advantage). California off-the-run 30-year 6% bonds are now being
quoted at a yield premium to dollar-denominated debts offered by the likes of
Mexico and Columbia.

Give me a giant break.

Even in California, only teachers come in front of bond holders. In other states,
the debt holders are the first to get paid. It’s amazing how few people know
that.

The spurious reasons beyond default concerns is that the lower levels of
government are saddled with a huge supply calendar (partly because of the
expiration of the federal Buy America Bonds subsidy). But in truth, new issuance
this year at an estimated $350 billion is lower than the $439 billion in 2010.

If we are talking about looking for what is S.I.R.P.-like (safety and income at a
reasonable price), investors should screen for:

Regions with a manageable refinancing calendar, A or better credit rating, low
levels of foreclosure rates and excess housing inventory, low unfunded pension
obligations, and growing population bases. And best to concentrate on bonds
backed by a non-cyclical revenue stream like water and power.

And have a read of Older Workers Are Keeping a Tighter Grip on Jobs on page
B3 of the Saturday NYT. As we have long argued, the prime reason for this
phenomena is that the boomers increasingly need income as an antidote to this
last decade of lost wealth. And right now, in the muni space, we may well have
the most compelling opportunity to add income to portfolios since the rapid
meltup in corporate bond yields in late 2008...

MORE ON THE DEBT CEILING ISSUE

The weekend FT had a very good take on the issue on page 15 (Talk is Cheaper
Than Money in Battle to Bring Down Ceiling). Usually, passing the debt ceiling is
a purely perfunctory exercise. occurring 80 times in the past 70 years. The Tea
Party is not going to give in at all and the fiscal hawks in the GOP are looking for
$50 billion of spending cuts out of the White House. And according to the latest
Reuters poll, 71% of Americans oppose lifting the debt ceiling too. Now Mr.
Geithner does have a slate of funding alternatives like Bob Rubin had at his
disposal back in 1996 that did not technically breach the ceiling. imagine that
back then the limit was $104 billion, not $14.3 trillion. This is now page 15
news. By March it will be front-page news. It promises to be a distraction for
investors (one that compresses the P/E multiple) and a disruption for the
economy.

And what can President Obama really say in his defense. Back in 2006, as
Senator he went on record actually resisting support for a raise in the debt
ceiling proposed by George Bush 43. To wit:

“Leadership means the buck stops here. Instead, Washington is shifting the
burden of hard choices today on to the backs of our children and grandchildren.
America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.”

Absolutely incredible. And the debt bill has surged $3.5 trillion since the “Big O”
(make that Owe) took office in early 2009.

For those that see the debt ceiling file as a non-issue, think again. Back in
1996, when it was more of a non-issue, the yield on the 10-year Treasury-note
spiked nearly 100bps, and if memory serves us correctly, it was the first time we
saw a major credit agency (Moody’s) put the U.S. government on review for a
possible downgrade (and the agency has recently been issuing some other
warnings). It’s safe to say that back in 1996, the U.S.A. was not the same fiscal
basket case it is today.

THE FED REALLY MISSED THE BOAT

It is incredible that the investment class is putting its faith in the same
institution that totally blew the housing meltdown. see Fed Misread Dangers of
Housing Crash, Minutes Show on page 2 of the weekend FT. The 2005 set of
transcripts from the FOMC meetings that year were just released and reveal a

central bank that was clearly in denial. The Fed staff economist, at the time,
David Stockton, said at the June meeting that “our story basically is that we’re
basically worried about valuations in the housing market, but we don’t
necessarily see that as having profound consequences for our policy going
forward”.

Mike Moskow, the Chicago Fed President back then, added “in the event of a
sharp drop in housing prices, the odds of a spillover to financial institutions
seems limited”.

Oh well, nobody’s perfect.

States Warned of $2 Trillion Pensions Shortfall

  MARKETS STOCK BONDS FUNDS FOREX FUTURES COMMODITIES CURRENCIES OPTIONS Financial

... (automatisch gekürzt) ...

http://fairshare.attributor.com/guardian/...4d3aa802e5b97919bb8b500ba

Wie in jedem Jahr treffen wir uns Anfang Januar zur Jahreshauptversammlung unseres Karpfenzuchtverein. In diesem Jahr am 21. Januar. Seit Jahren sacken die Börsen pünktlich zu diesem Termin ab. Eine große Menge Geld wird vernichtet und veschwindet im Schlund dieses Burschen:
view.stern.de/de/picture/1531836/...-Braun-Animal-510x510.jpg" style="max-width:560px" />

Permanent

passende Metapher, A.L.


The Run-Flat Market

By Timothy Collins
Street.com Contributor
1/18/2011 9:06 AM EST


With the run higher seemingly endless, and every dip being bought, some are calling this market a "bubble." Even if the word "bubble" isn't the one used, the meaning is implied. I know I've been close to using the word a few times myself, but the more I think about it, the less I think "bubble" is the right description. This market is more like a run-flat tire. A run-flat tire resists the effects of deflation when punctured. In our case, the market resists the effects of selling when the economy is punctured. In addition, the economy is resisting the effects of inflation as the Fed continues to jab its knife of monetary policy. Unfortunately, a run-flat tire is only supposed to be used for a limited distance at a limited speed. The market is running at anything but a limited speed, and the distance we've traveled since early December has been farther than most anticipated. At some point, it will need some fixing via a correction. The longer the Fed is willing to push this tire, the more risk we run of an outright blowout.

Even with several large earnings reports pending, Apple (AAPL) is going to dominate the headlines both before the bell and after. The trading is going to be very emotional today, but I do think the news about Jobs will underscore the need for a strong quarter. Any miss or sign of weakness in AAPL with its earnings announcement tonight will likely be punished even if shares fail to bounce this morning. If revenue or earnings uncertainty adds to concerns about Steve Jobs' health, it is quite possible AAPL sees $300.

market pulse

Jan. 18, 2011, 10:00 a.m. EST
Builders index stuck at 16 for third month
Related stories

   * Coming up: Empire State, TIC and builder survey (8:01a)
   * Home builders cautiously optimistic about recovery (Jan. 11)
   * Citigroup profit misses forecasts; shares slip (9:13a)
   * Inflation boost puts pressure on Bank of England (6:25a)

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By Steve Goldstein

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo housing market index, which measures confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes, stayed at 16 in January for the third straight month. Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected the gauge to pick up a point, to 17, and the figure is in weak territory in any event. The seasonally adjusted index is designed so that any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor, which hasn't been the case since April 2006. Subcomponents on current sales conditions and sales expectations for the next six months were unchanged, while the subcomponent gauge traffic of prospective buyers edged up a point.

Man sieht sehr schön die zwei sehr volatilen Seitwärtsphasen in 2007.Als Chartie sollte man glauben, dass so eine Zone eine gewisse Aussagekraft hat, aber was das angeht könnte man in der Tat sagen: Dieses mal ist alles anders!

Bernake hat den Kurs hochgedruckt. In Amiland gibt es nur noch positive Chartbilder, die eindeutig ein prosperierendes Amerika anzeigen. Seitwärtsphasen entstehen bestenfalls durch Eurokrisen. Ohne diese stände die Welt und auch Amerika noch viel besser da. LOL

Sollte sich in in Kürze eine Korrektur andeuten sollte vor allem auch der Russel erst mal runter, weil dieser eine gewisse Marktbreite aufweist und solange die im Sinne eines steigenden Charts positiv ist, sollte man seine kurzfristigen Shortambitionen unterdrücken, selbst wenn es weh tut.

Bei 796 ist der Kurs zweimal nach oben abgeprallt und das wäre für mich eine Marke, die mich aufhorchen ließe, sollte diese kurzfristig Unterschritten werden. In der anderen Richtung winkt schon das 2007er Hoch.

Wollen wir mal hoffen, dass die Choreographie dieses für die nächste Jahresendrally vorsieht.

weil eh schon Rohstoff-Inflation besteht:

Ben Bernanke’s QE program may well have induced a nice positive equity wealth
effect but by inducing investment flows into all asset classes, food inflation has
emerged, along with energy, as a potential source of global economic weakness
and strife as prices soar in China and India and riots start to break out in Africa.
Gold is rallying today though the chart does look quite choppy and sloppy right
now — while we remain long-term bulls, one must wonder if things are starting to
become a little nutty when you read stories (as we did this morning on
Bloomberg News) that vending machines selling bullion are starting to be
installed in Japan.

As we said before, movements in oil prices still exert a statistically significant
impact on the economy and earnings with a 12-24 month lag. In other words,
growth was still receiving a tailwind from the sharp downdraft in crude prices
experienced from mid-2008 to early 2009 right through last year. But the gig is
up and the economy is going to feel the effects of the near-120% surge in oil
prices for the balance of 2011 and into 2012 barring a reversal. Only once in
the past did the U.S. economy fail to sputter or head into outright recession after
such a two-year surge in oil prices (food will only make matters worse in terms of
depressing real wages) and that was in 2006 when the economy generated over
two million jobs, the unemployment rate was 4.5%, wages were rising at a 6%
annual rate, home prices rose an average of 8%, and bank credit expanded
10%. Those offsets are not in play this year.

And the question is whether the Fed would dare embark on QE3 with headline
inflation in acceleration mode (even if core is still well contained). It’s one thing
to bring on QE1 when oil prices are at $45/bbl and the CRB spot index is sitting
at 325 (futures at 215) as was the case in March 2009. And then to announce
QE2 nearly 18 months later when oil is sitting at $75/bbl and the CRB is sitting
at 380 (futures were at 270). But can the Fed really be serious about yet
another round of balance sheet expansion to please the stock market when oil
is now above $90/bbl and the CRB is at a record high of over 530 (futures now
north of 330)? Talk about rolling the dice with the bond market vigilantes.

Also, have a look at The Latest American Export: Inflation in the op-ed pages
(A17 to be precise) of the WSJ. Indeed, not only has the Fed managed to create
an illusion of prosperity by stepping up the print press and swinging the stock
market around with QE2 chatter last summer, but now it is actually helping the
government cause a de facto real appreciation of the yuan by pursing a back-
door policy of boosting inflation in China. Bernanke is a true magician, no
question about it.

Then again, the name of the game seems to be to kick the can down the road as
far as it will go, buy as much time as possible, and hope that the economy can
manage to grow out of all its imbalances from bad debt elimination, excess
supply of housing, and pregnant government balance sheets. Bringing back
mark-to-model accounting in the banking sector was the first move. Using TARP
money as an industrial bailout strategy was next and right out of the 1930s FDR
playbook. Goosing the fiscal system and adding to a deficit that was already
running at nearly 10% of GDP was another, including a raid of Social Security
and not allowing a 10-year tax cut to expire that was always destined to do so (a
tax cut that was implemented to deal with the 2001 tech-wreck recession, not
the 2010 stuck-in-the-mud recovery). The Fed was going to start shrinking its
balance sheet a year ago, but instead re-expanded it by the end of the summer
and is now thumbing the nose of the new Congress by hinting at doing even
more to keep the speculative stock market rally alive. And the ballyhooed
financial overhaul continues to miss deadlines and in fact has no teeth as it is —
why cook the goose that lays the golden credit egg and must play a role in a
leveraged economic expansion?

The complexity in the banking system remains as opaque as ever and now the
lenders are generating profits by drawing on their loan loss reserves (Banken-

Gewinne stammen aus Senkung der Risikovorsorge, obwohl dazu kein Anlass besteht)

at a time when the unemployment rate is still perilously close to double-digits. The can
has indeed been kicked down the road. Outside of selected state legislatures
(see what Vallejo is doing to pension and benefits on page A6 of the WSJ), the
tough decisions have been delayed and as a result, the next bear market and
recession may end up looking just as bad as the last one. The only thing we
seemed to have learned coming out of the credit bubble was to add even more
debt to the overall national balance sheet. But as we saw in Ireland, not even
the lucky can expand its debt at a faster rate than nominal income forever,
especially now that the ratio in the U.S.A. is heading to unprecedented heights
for a peace-time economy and to levels that end up impairing growth in the
nation’s private sector capital stock. Borrowed time, that’s what the bulls have
on their side. But we’ll see for how much longer, especially as the debt ceiling
file plays out (see New Calls on GOP Side Not to Lift Debt Limit on page A8 of the
WSJ).

With portfolio managers cash ratios back close to levels that they were at in the
fall of 2007 and still just a trickle of inflows into mutual funds, the only source of
buying power we can see in the equity market is leverage (the surge in margin
borrowing) and massive short covering (short interest on the NYSE plunged 5.5%
in the second half of December, which largely explains why the stock market
absolutely rocketed during the month). If you want to have a good look at the
consensus view see the editorial by BlackRock’s Bob Doll on page 22 of the FT
(Prepare for Another Fine Surprise from U.S. Equities). Bob and I part ways on
the outlook but we are old friends and collegues and he is still worth listening to.

HEADWINDS AHEAD

It is truly difficult to understand why it is that everyone is so whipped up about
U.S. growth prospects. Even the latest set of data points has been less than
exciting. Retail sales, payrolls, and consumer confidence have all been below
expected and all of a sudden we see that jobless claims are moving back up.
The deceleration in core capex orders is quite telling and housing remains firmly
in the doldrums. To be sure, we have a slate of “diffusion” surveys telling us
that businesses are feeling better — the ISMs, the IBD/TIPP survey, the NFIB and
the array of regional manufacturing surveys too, but over 70% of the U.S. GDP is
the consumer and we did seem to close out 2010 with real spending and wages
roughly flat. Is that good? Or perhaps there is now this widespread belief that
the government will stop at nothing to achieve the holy grail of sustainable
economic growth and revived animal spirits among the investing class. The Fed
has made it quite clear that the road to prosperity lies through the equity
market, and that the primary objective of quantitative easing was to generate a
positive equity wealth effect on consumer and business spending. So far, the
stock market is biting because the rally has been non-stop in nature for months
now and whatever givebacks we see are brief affairs and widely treated as
buying opportunities. Hope springs eternal, so much so, that even soft
economic data like we saw last Friday are treated with little more than a shrug of
the shoulder.

The S&P 500 may still be some 17% away from its prior peak, but the Wilshire
5000 just closed at a new high after last week’s 1.8% advance, and in the short
span of just 22 months, has managed to double (+100%). In other words, from
the March 2009 lows, $8.3 trillion of paper wealth has been created. Thanks
Ben! The S&P 400 midcap index is at a new high too, as is the Wilshire small-
cap index, piercing its old high set back on July 13, 2007.

The Dow has now gained ground in each of the past seven weeks. The last time
it did that was back in the week ending April 23, 2010. Ahem. A month later, it
was down 1,200 points. You see, nothing lasts forever, not even a speculative
bounce. The Shiller cyclically-adjusted P/E ratio has expanded for six months in
a row and at 23.3x in January is now at its highest level in nearly three years.
Sentiment is wildly bullish. The market is seriously overbought, and it is
expensive on a “normalized” earnings basis.

In any event, as we look to the months and quarters ahead, what do we see?
We see that the Federal government just announced a bonanza of $858 billion
of stimulus measures towards the end of last year. Of course, almost all of that
just ensures that Washington will not be a source of contraction this year, but
the psychological impact has been huge so far. The Fed has allowed its balance
sheet to explode even further to obscene levels of $2.43 trillion or triple what it
was before the financial crisis took hold. In the past three years, the Fed’s
balance sheet has expanded by $1.5 trillion and nominal GDP has only
managed to rise over $500 billion. [schwache Effizienz! - A.L.] Fascinating. And we hadthe U.S. public
debt explode by $5 trillion over that same time frame — the country is 244 years
old and over one-third of the national debt has been created in just the past.

Aus seinem Newsletter v. 18.1.11

es zu QE3 ... kommen wird hängt nicht davon ab ob es Unruhen in Afrika gibt und sich die Hungertruppe stark vergrößert. Auch wird es die Amis nicht stören, dass darunter Schwellenländer und andere leiden. Auch dass die US-Verbraucher ärmer werden ist nicht so wichtig.

Wichtig alleine ist ob die Neuverschuldung weiter galoppiert, die Finanzierung von Staatsschulden Schwierigkeiten macht und es die Führungsschicht nicht schädigt. Wäre es anders, hätte es nie zu QE2 kommen dürfen.

Die Niederlande lehnen höhere Bürgschaften für hoch verschuldete Länder ab. Auch Deutschland tritt auf die Bremse. Das löst eine Verkaufswelle von Anleihen der Peripherie-Staaten aus.
Der anhaltende Streit über den Euro-Rettungsschirm lässt die Risikoprämien auf Staatsanleihen hoch verschuldeter Länder in die Höhe schießen. Zahlreiche Anleger trennten sich am Dienstagmittag von griechischen, portugiesischen und spanischen Schuldtiteln, nachdem der niederländische Finanzminister höhere Bürgschaften für strauchelnde Euro-Staaten ausgeschlossen hatte. Bundesfinanzminister Wolfgang Schäuble (CDU) warnte vor einer Überlastung finanzstarker Länder wie Deutschland.

www.ftd.de/finanzen/maerkte/...eckt-bond-anleger/50216423.html

Navigator.C

Das ist die schlechte Nachricht.

Die gute Nachricht offenbart sich schnell bei dem Kursziel von JPMorgen: 199 $ auf Sicht von 6 bis 12 Monaten. Das sind nur schlappe 4%. Die können Bären doch mit Leichtigkeit abwarten.


http://www.ariva.de/news/...enden-Wendepunkt-im-Internetmarkt-3615506

Companies wie Netflix, OpenTable, Priceline oder eben auch Amazon sind selbstverständlich recht gigantischen Wetten auf unsere digitale Zukunft. Auch der Facebook-Deal von Ghoulman fällt sicherlich unter diese Kategorie. Wir haben allerdings derlei Bewertungen & begleitend ausschweifende Kommentare diverser Protagonisten schon einmal gesehen, aber diesmal gilt selbstverständlich und klarerweise:

"This time is different!"

LOL.

.....As the Irish Independent stated:

   EMERGENCY lending from the ECB to banks in Ireland fell in December, the first decline since January 2010, but only because the Irish Central Bank stepped up its help to banks. The Irish Independent learnt last night that the Central Bank of Ireland is financing €51bn of an emergency loan programme by printing its own money. ECB lending to banks in Ireland fell from €136.4bn in November to €132bn at the end of December, according to the figures released by the Irish Central Bank yesterday.

According to the ECB, the Irish central bank is perfectly within its rights to create its own funds if it deems it appropriate — providing that the ECB is notified.
ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/01/18/461881/...h-euro-printing/

www.independent.ie/business/irish/...ng-own-money-2497212.html

Did ya know?

The European Central Bank — via its Securities Markets Programme — now owns almost 20 per cent of the outstanding government bonds of Greece, Ireland and Portugal.........

....bit of commentary from the BofAML analysts:

   The ECB now owns close to 20% of the outstanding bonds of Greece, Ireland and Portugal. Trichet’s hawkish rhetoric on Thursday will, therefore, have been aimed (at least in part) at increasing pressure on politicians to shift the burden of dealing with the periphery away from monetary authorities. Also, this number suggests that EU authorities may have to face the issue of burden-sharing between the private and the public sector well before 2013 unless they want to end up with the majority of the exposure to the periphery. This, in turn, points to the fact that the main elephant in the room remains the post-2013 crisis resolution mechanism, rather than any tweaking of the EFSF.
ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/01/17/460751/...-wrought-yet-aga

www.zerohedge.com/article/food-riots-2011
......According to the FAO, the global price of food hit a new record high in December.  For most Americans and Europeans, a rise in the price of food is just an inconvenience.  But in many areas of the world, even a relatively small rise in the price of food can mean that the survival of millions is suddenly threatened.

Global authorities are concerned that these food riots might start spreading - especially if the extremely harsh weather all over the globe continues to damage crops.

In fact, there are some signs that economic unrest is already beginning to spread....

*In the nation of Jordan, peaceful demonstrations were held in several locations around the country on Friday to protest rising food prices.

*In Libya, protests about the late completion of government subsidized housing entered their third day on Sunday.  Reportedly, hundreds of uncompleted units have been taken over by protesters and so far the police are not taking action to evict them.  There is also growing concern that the food riots in neighboring Tunisia will soon pour over into Libya.

*Economic protests also been reported recently in Mozambique, Morocco and Chile.....

"Least developed countries" spent 9 billion dollars on food imports in 2002.  By 2008, that number had risen to 23 billion dollars.

A study by the World Institute for Development Economics Research discovered that the bottom half of the world population owns approximately 1 percent of all global wealth.

So if things are this bad already, what kind of food riots are we going to see if all of this weird weather continues and global harvests are much lower than anticipated in 2011?

und in Südostasien

www.zerohedge.com/article/...ationary-coal-mine-southeast-asia
....Laos is one of the most sparsely populated countries in Asia; with just 6.3 million people, its numbers pale in comparison to regional neighbors such as Burma (50 million), Thailand (67 million) and Bangladesh (162 million).

The other thing that's important about Laos is that the country is home to some of the most fertile soil in the world: more than 20% of its land mass is ripe for agricultural use. This is an astounding number, and it's no wonder that agriculture makes up the preponderance of the Laotian economy.

Put another way, Laos, with its vast resources and small population, might loosely be considered an agricultural version of Kuwait. But Laos is nowhere near as wealthy, since oil is much pricier than rice, soy, and fish.

Given its resources, it certainly seems ironic that the prices of staple foods in Laos, including rice, have soared in recent months, and that the Laotian government is now under intense pressure to "do something" about it.

You expect this sort of thing to happen in Algeria, where the population is 35 million, where only 2% of the land is cultivated, and where agriculture makes up but a tiny percentage of the economy... but in Laos? This is akin to finding Kuwaitis unable to afford filling up their cars due to high gas prices. It's unthinkable.

Thing is, it's not that there are food shortages in Laos; this isn't an issue where supply has failed to keep up with demand (thus resulting in rising prices). The price hikes are simply another indicator of monetary inflation causing severe price inflation, particularly in the developing world.

How does this happen? The trillions of new currency units being compulsively manufactured by central bankers are finding their way to developing countries. This surge heats up local markets, causing prices to rise.

This effect is compounded when developing markets fight to keep their currencies artificially depressed against the dollar. When the price of milk goes up by a dollar in the developed world, people grumble about it, but they can afford it. In Laos, where the minimum wage is about $65/month, an extra few dollars for groceries is unfathomable.
The government in Laos will most likely raise the minimum wage. The figure that's being discussed is about a 40% increase from today's level, which itself is nearly double the minimum wage in 2009.

Rising wages like this are a common ingredient in hyperinflation, spawning a vicious cycle of higher prices, which then beget higher wages, which then beget higher prices, and so on. Wage hikes are always playing catch-up with rising prices, and the end result is a reduced standard of living.

Ich möchte allerdings ergänzen:

Dein geposteter Chart zeigt zugleich auch das Gegenteil.
Die Marke von 736 wurde dreimal (2x 2007, Anfang 2010) fakemäßig nach oben gebrochen, bevor es eine mehr oder weniger starke Korrektur/Absturz nach unten gab.

Die von mir höchstpersönlich entwickelte & propagierte Hauptregel der Neocharttechnik schreibt es schon fast zwingend vor, dass vor einer deutlichen Korrektur ein Fakeausbruch nach oben erfolgt.
Ich denke die "alte" Charttechnik können wir getrost ad acta legen.
So denkt heute jeder (Depp).
Wer gewinnen will, muss noch einmal mehr um die Ecke denken!
:D

Ich denke also konsequent weiter: der Bruch der Widerstands-Marke nach oben ist ein bearishes Zeichen... kurz- bis mittelfristig.
Zumindest wenn der Bruch des Widerstands -so wie jetzt- nach einem stärkeren Aufwärtstrend folgt.

www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jan/18/...ident-blogger-minister

Tschuldigung.
Ich muss korrigieren:
"Die Marke von 736 wurde dreimal (2x 2008, Anfang 2010) fakemäßig nach oben gebrochen, bevor es eine mehr oder weniger starke Korrektur/Absturz nach unten gab."

Daher aktuelles Russel2000 Kursziel auf Sicht von 1-2Monaten: 736 Punkte!
Da freuen sich die Bären.

 

Da muss ich Dir Recht geben! Ich hatte die Vermutung auch schon des Öfteren, dass die Charttechnik mittlerweile eher dazu dient die Masse in die Irre zu führen. Allerdings habe ich mal auf einem Seminar gehört, dass 60% der Ausbrüche eh Fehlausbrüche sind. Dann würde das die Normalität darstellen.

"Normalerweise" würde es bei weiterer Annäherung an das alte Top auch zu Gewinnmitnahmen kommen. Nur wir befinden uns in einem Freak Markt, der mit grünem Bullshit geflutet wird.

Selbst die Momentumabschwächung zum Jahreswechsel hat nicht zu einer vernünftigen Korrektur geführt, derweil das Momentum gerade wieder Fahrt aufnimmt.

Apple nach kurzem Schock wieder auf Kurs, Google mit neuem Jahreshoch an einer Marke, die schon zweimal Erfolglos angelaufen wurde und von Amazon gar nicht zu reden.

Versteh mich nicht falsch, ich hoffe ja auch auf eine Korrektur, aber das kann noch dauern.
Wenn die Anstiege nicht bald durch eine entsprechende "Nachricht" gebremst werden droht eventuell doch schon eine finale Euphorie.

Hoffen wir mal, dass GS das beste Mittel aus der Mottenkiste holt, dass die Masse im Zaum hält. Angst!

Hast du gut gesagt.
Wobei ich rede ja nicht von einem Trendwechsel, sondern von einer temporären Korrektur in einem übergeordneten Bullenmarkt.

GS wird sicherlich wieder die Angstkarte spielen & es wird wie immer: funktionieren.
Wie du bereits sagtest, keiner kann sagen wann.
Ich vermute nur: sehr bald.

AAPL ist der absolute Wahnsinn, diese Monsteraktie!
Bin echt beeindruckt.
Steve ist ein ausgefuchster Kerl.
GOOG kann da nicht ganz mithalten.

Was du zum Momentum sagst ist absolut korrekt.
Daher hoffe ich, dass diese laufende Woche absolut gigantisch TOP performt.
Wenn wir richtig schön hochscheißen, dann ist das für ein ein nochmals gesteigertes Zeichen einer bevorstehenden ca. 10%-Korrektur, die schon i.d. folgenden Woche getriggert werden könnte.

Wenn die Woche eher mau verläuft, bin ich mir auch nicht mehr so sicher, ob die obersten Finanzmarktplaner nicht evtl. doch noch eine Etage höher wollen vor der (SICHERLICH stattfindenden) Korrektur.

International Business Machines (IBM) produced a very good quarter along with a solid outlook. The stock has been stronger in afterhours trading than I anticipated, but it's still in very good territory for the earnings play, especially one with a bullish tilt. A close around $155 on Friday would maximize its value (though it is hard to expect shares to close right on that number). I may look to hedge or adjust this play tomorrow, but there are several more key reports to come in the morning, so the afterhours action now may not matter much come morning.

Volatility continued its trek into the abyss. The cash Volatility Index (VIX) had a bit of a pop today, coming very close to parity with the January futures (which ended trading today), so a trader looking at that number may be a little misled. The front month VIX futures were down across the board by 2% to 3%. There just continues to be no fear in this market. It even showed up at the close as traders rushed into equities, especially small-caps.

Traders aren't even waiting for numbers from Google (GOOG) as they piled into shares today as if the numbers were already known. Large moves in front of earnings tend to worry me a bit. Is it really smart money or is it overly aggressive money? With the tendency thus far for earnings to be initially sold off or disregarded, I think caution on specific names is warranted, but caution on the overall market has been unduly punished.

---

Apple schoss nachbörslich zunächst um 15 Dollar auf neues ATH, endete mit nur 1,25 % Plus aber "eher verhalten".