Der USA Bären-Thread

U.S. mortgage applications for home purchases rose for a second straight week, with demand at its highest level since early May as potential homeowners took advantage of record low interest rates, data from an industry group showed on Wednesday.

 

Demand for home refinancing loans, however, slumped for a fifth straight week as tight lending standards and a weak labor market prevent many homeowners from taking advantage of rock-bottom rates.

The Mortgage Bankers Association on Wednesday said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage applications, which includes both purchase and refinance loans, for the week ended Oct. 1 decreased 0.2 percent. The four-week moving average of mortgage applications, which smoothes the volatile weekly figures, was down 3.0 percent.

The MBA's seasonally adjusted purchase index, a tentative early indicator of home sales, increased 9.3 percent, reaching the highest level since the week ended May 7.

Jay Brinkmann, chief economist at the MBA, said the increase in purchase activity was led by a 17.2 percent increase in Federal Housing Administration, or FHA, applications, while conventional purchase applications increased by 3.6 percent.

"One possible driver of last week's big increase in FHA applications was a desire by borrowers to get applications in before new FHA requirements took effect October 4th, which included somewhat higher credit score and down payment requirements," he said in a statement.

The housing market has been struggling since the April 30 expiration of popular home buyer tax credits. To take advantage of the tax credits, buyers had to sign purchase contracts by April 30. Contracts originally had to close by June 30, but that was extended by three months.

Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts, said the housing market remains vulnerable to setbacks.

 

"Right now we are digging out of the very deep hole left behind by the first-time home buyer tax credits, which pushed sales forward, but plunged after expiration," he said.

"Data on pending home sales has been positive, but we are still at very low levels and until we get faster growth in employment we are not going to see a housing market recovery," he said.

The National Association of Realtors earlier this week said pending sales of previously owned U.S. homes in August rose to a four-month high.

"Excess inventory is weighing heavily on the housing market and it will take time to resolve that problem," Gault said.

The MBA's seasonally adjusted index of refinancing applications decreased 2.5 percent.

"We have record low interest rates, but many people cannot take advantage of them because credit is tight and many people are unemployed," he said.

Borrowing costs on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, excluding fees, averaged 4.25 percent, down 0.13 percentage point from the previous week. That is a lowest level in the survey, which has been conducted weekly since 1990.

Interest rates were also below their year-ago level of 4.89 percent.

The drop-off in home loan refinancing demand does not bode well for the flailing U.S. economy as this activity typically encourages an increase in consumer spending. By lowering monthly mortgage payments, lower rates may also help some homeowners avoid default and foreclosure if their credit is good enough.

Euro durch die Spekulation nach Süden getrieben und die "Fachpresse" sah schon die Eurozone untergehen. Jetzt wir der Euro durch die Spekulation nach Norden getrieben und die "Fachpresse" sieht die Wirtschaft der Eurozone demnächst am Boden. Na, was wollen sie denn? Nur sinnlos die Bits im Computer füllen?

Gut, dass die EZB bei diesen Währungsmanipulationen nicht mitmacht. Während ein "fairer" Europreis im Bereich 1,15 bis 1,25 US-$ liegt, ist er momentan wieder überbewertet. Die Wirtschaft der Eurozone hat sich auf diese Schwankungen allerdings schon gut eingestellt und diesmal werden ja auch die Währungen in vielen Entwicklungsländern und Ölförderländern in die Höhe getrieben. Unsere Hauptkunden können also weiterhin unsere Produkte bezahlen. Nur Exporte in die USA werden schwieriger. Das betrifft aber hauptsächlich Edelkarossen von Herstellern die inzwischen  schon eigene Werke in den USA haben oder kurz vor der Eröffnung stehen.

Leider steigen momentan die Rohstoff- und Energiepreise etwas schneller als der Euro und importieren so geringfügige Preiserhöhungen. Einen gewissen Ausgleich werden die billigeren chinesischen Importe bewerkstelligen. Die USA werden aber unter wesentlich höheren Importpreisen leiden und so den Konsum weiter dämpfen. Zum Exportieren haben sie kaum was und deshalb wird es diesbezüglich keinen Ausgleich geben.

www.stern.de/politik/ausland/...ent-verliert-sein-wappen-1611029.html

BREAKING

U.S. Sept. ADP employment down 39,000

dpa-AFX: *USA: BESCHÄFTIGTENZAHL SEPTEMBER  -39.000 - ADP (Prog +20.000)
-
C

INSTANT VIEW 2-US private payrolls fall 39,000 in Sept
   NEW YORK, Oct 6 (Reuters) - ADP's national employment report
on Wednesday said U.S. private employer payrolls fell by 39,000
jobs in September.
   STORY:

KEY POINTS:
* Reuters consensus forecast for ADP payroll change for September
was for increase of 24,000 jobs
* US ADP August payroll change revised to +10,000 from -10,000

COMMENTS:
ERIC VILORIA, CURRENCY STRATEGIST, FOREX.COM, NEW YORK:
   "The ADP number was disappointing, as it's still negative
overall. It looks like the dollar has declined a bit, though
ADP hasn't recently had that great a correlation with the
official NFP number. But it all adds to the case for the Fed
coming in to create more stimulus. Labor is the most important
thing to look at, as that's what's really driving the economy.
It all starts with employment, because if you have more jobs,
people spend more, you see more hiring."

FRANK LESH, FUTURES ANALYST, FUTUREPATH TRADING LLC, CHICAGO:
   "That's going the wrong way. But we're not really coming off
too hard, actually. Maybe we'll take a little more time to react
here today. Market just got done making new highs here, but we
are sort of holding. So for the moment it seems like we are
discounting this number and we'll wait for the real thing and
hope for the better on Friday. But for now, it may well have
stopped our advance.
   "The market has been looking pretty good and there seems to
be some decent sentiment about earnings, which we are going to
start dealing with real soon."

MARKET REACTION:
STOCKS: U.S. stock index futures pare gains
BONDS: U.S. Treasury debt prices extend gains
DOLLAR: U.S. dollar hit a 15-year low versus the yen
Keywords: USA ECONOMY/INSTANT
(Reporting by New York Economics and Markets Desk; +1-646 223-6300)


2010-10-06 13:26:30
3N|ECO IND|USA||

gemäß Challenger-Bericht. Passt zu den schwachen ADP-Daten aus # 481.

Eric Harding, street.com
Layoffs Edge Up in September From a Yearly Low
10/6/2010 7:48 AM EDT

Employers announced 37,151 planned job cuts in September, up 7% from the 34,768 job cuts reported in August, according to the report from global outplacement consultancy Challenger Gray & Christmas. Still, this tally was the second-lowest of the year. Overall, employers have announced 411,272 job cuts so far this year, 64% below the 1,136,908 layoffs announced by this point in 2009.

denn noch so hat man immer eine Hintertür offen

Developed economies to slow, IMF says
IMF cuts U.S. growth forecasts for 2010 and 2011

By Steve Goldstein, MarketWatch

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Economies in developed countries such as the United States and Europe will slow during the second half of 2010 and the first half of next year, the International Monetary Fund predicted Wednesday as it warned of “downside” risks....

www.marketwatch.com/story/...omies-to-slow-imf-says-2010-10-06

momentan erinnert die Situation irgendwie an 2007/2008. Stocks up, Commodities up, Precious Metals up, usw., usf., die Gehirnwäsche, dass die Fed nun umgehend "QuantSleaze 2.0" implementiert und damit die inflationäre Entwicklung somit ein gutes Stück weiter vorantreibt, das scheint bereits weitgehend Früchte zu tragen. Mir klingen allerdings stets noch die Worte von Prof. Keen in den Ohren, welcher zu Anfang diesen Jahres u.a. die nachfolgenden Ausführungen tätigte:

"In den Vereinigten Staaten betragen die Schulden des Privatsektors rund 42 Billionen
Dollar. Um für Inflation zu sorgen müsste die Zentralbank mindestens weitere 25 Billionen Dollar direkt in Umlauf bringen. Statt dessen hat sie nur eine Billion gedruckt in der Erwartung, der Geldmultiplikator würde den Betrag verzehnfachen. Das aber würde
voraussetzen, der amerikanische Privatsektor wollte neun Billionen Dollar neue Schulden
aufnehmen. Aber das ist unrealistisch: Im Moment will keiner Kredite vergeben und keiner aufnehmen - der Mechanismus kann also nicht funktionieren."

baer45.schmartz.de/extern/Finanzblase-Keen.pdf

der redet uns noch den Aufschwung kaputt. ;-)

d.h. China versucht, den US-am. Vorstellungen zu entsprechen. Da die USA den Chinesen verwehren, US-am. Firmen zu kaufen, kauft China eben UST und hilft damit, das amerik. Defizit zu finanzieren. Durch die Lieferung billiger Produkte kommt China dem US-Konsum entgegen. China liefert also Kapital nach USA. Dass die USA es nur konsumieren und nicht zum Vermögensaufbau nutzen, liegt nicht in der Verantwortung Chinas.  Das Kuriosum ist nun, dass in den USA China genau dies vorgeworfen wird. Der Link dazu: (aus dem QV übernommen von erstdenken)

www.washingtonsblog.com/2010/10/...currency-war-what-does.html

Die Überschrift "Currency war" ist etwas irreführend. Tatsächlich geht es darum, dass China den USA das gibt, was diese haben wollen. China hat allerdings kein Interesse daran, dass auf Basis von Dollarkrediten chinesische Investitionen finanziert werden. (Weil die Chinesen wissen, dass diese Kredite mit der Festplatte generiert werden. ) China hat also durchaus das Realkapital im Auge und versteht es,  dies vom Finanzkapital (der USA) abzutrennen. Damit möchten die USA natürlich nicht konfrontiert werden, am allerwenigsten die "Tea-Party-Fraktion".

USA haben sie schon in der hand, griechenland kommt noch dazu, irgendwann regiert China alles......   lol

DJ: FXDIREKT/FXnews CA: Ivey-Einkaufsmanagerindex 70,3 (erwartet: 62,0 zuletzt: 65,9)
Details folgen...

 (END) Dow Jones Newswires

 October 06, 2010 10:00 ET (14:00 GMT)
ISO-8859-11.0

dpa-AFX: Chinesen interessieren sich für Antwerpener Opel-Werk
   ANTWERPEN (dpa-AFX) - Der chinesische Autobauer und Volvo-Besitzer Geely
interessiert sich für das Opel-Werk im belgischen Antwerpen. Der Vorstandschef
von Geely, Li Shufu, traf sich am Mittwoch mit dem Regierungschef der Region
Flandern, Kris Peeters, wie die Nachrichtenagentur Belga berichtete. Opel hatte
bestätigt, Antwerpen zum Jahresende zu schließen. Bis Jahresende sollen dort
noch 10.000 Astra vom Band rollen.

   'Ich möchte die Möglichkeiten untersuchen, die Opel Antwerpen
bietet', sagte der Geely-Chef. Die Gewerkschaften reagierten vorsichtig auf den
Vorstoß der Chinesen. 'In den vergangenen Jahren haben wir zahlreiche
Ankündigungen dieser Art erlebt', sagte Luc Van Grinsven von der Gewerkschaft
ACV-CSC laut Belga./cb/DP/edh

alles auf.

Schon krass, wieviel Stimmrechtsmitteilungen es in den letzten Wochen zum Einstieg der norwegischen Staatsbank bei deutschen Unternehmen gibt.

Okay, interessiert euch vielleicht nicht so.

U.S. cities suffered more harm to their fiscal condition in the latest recession than during any other economic decline in nearly a quarter of a century, a survey released by the National League of Cities on Wednesday found.

 

And cities are just beginning to see the effect of the downturn that began at the end of 2007 on property taxes, even though the recession officially ended in June 2009. Property taxes, a key revenue generator for cities, fell 1.8 percent in 2010 from 2009, according to the survey.

"The full weight of the decline in housing values has yet to hit the budgets of many cities, and property tax revenues will likely decline further in 2011 and 2012," the survey of 338 cities with populations between 10,000 and 50,000 found.

Nearly nine in 10 city finance officers in the survey said their cities have been less able to meet fiscal needs in 2010 than in the previous year. Those cities that participated in the survey, conducted from April to June, are laying off workers, delaying or canceling infrastructure projects, or cutting basic services.

 

"In comparison to previous periods, the most recent decade, with recessions in 2001 and 2008-09, was one characterized by little stability in city fiscal conditions, and the effects of the current downturn are already more significant for city budgets than for the previous recessions tracked in NLC's survey," according to the survey, which the association of city leaders has been conducting since 1986.

Four out of five of the city finance officers in the survey said employee health benefit costs were having a negative impact on their budgets. Almost three quarters said they were impacted by infrastructure costs and more than half said they were dealing with cuts in aid from states.

The most common spending cut was a hiring freeze, while the most typical revenue generator was increasing the levels of fees for services.

As the new year begins, cities are worried about struggling real estate markets, consumer spending and unemployment. They are also concerned that states will respond to falling revenues by further cutting their aid to local governments.

City officials also expect to wrestle with underfunded pension and healthcare for years to come.

"Confronted with these issues, 80 percent of city finance officers forecast that their cities will be less able to meet needs in 2011 than they were in 2010," the survey said.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York purchased $2.069 billion in Treasury debt maturing from 2013 to 2014 on Wednesday, part of officials' pledge to reinvest cash from maturing mortgage-backed securities and housing agency debt back into the bond market to support the economic recovery. Dealers offered to sell the Fed $25.157 billion in debt.

bei Momentum getriebenen Werten:

blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2010/10/...?mod=yahoobarrons

EQUNIX hat Schulden in Höhe von 117 $ per equity - ist schon gewaltig!

Top-Ökonom – Notenbanken stürzen Welt ins Chaos

globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/...ment-currency.html