Der USA Bären-Thread

U.S. mortgage applications leaped last week as rock-bottom rates lifted demand for home refinancing loans to its highest level in 15 months, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Wednesday.

 

Home loan refinancing puts extra cash into consumers' hands that can be used to pay off existing debt or funnel into the economy through purchases. By lowering a monthly mortgage payment it may also help some homeowners avoid default and foreclosure.

The MBA said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage applications, which includes both purchase and refinance loans, for the week ended Aug. 13, increased 13.0 percent. The four-week moving average of mortgage applications, which smoothes the volatile weekly figures, was up 2.6 percent.

The MBA's seasonally adjusted index of refinancing applications increased 17.1 percent, the highest since the week ended May 15, 2009.

Borrowing costs on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, excluding fees, averaged 4.60 percent, up 0.03 percentage point from the previous week's record low. The survey has been conducted weekly since 1990.

Interest rates were also below their year-ago level of 5.15 percent.

Thomas Meyer, CEO of J.I. Kislak Mortgage in Miami Lakes, Florida, said people in Florida, and other hard-hit housing markets, are finding it difficult to refinance because of appraisals coming in significantly below their current mortgage amount.

"High unemployment has certainly had a dampening effect, but that runs up against the psychological orientation that now is the time to get a deal, with housing prices low and interest rates low," he said.

Meyer said he is seeing a pick up in activity, mostly in the home loan purchase business as opposed to the refinance business.

"There is a feeling that we are at, or very close to, the bottom in the fall of housing prices and that now is the time to buy," he said.

The housing market has been struggling since the April 30 expiration of popular home buyer tax credits. The Commerce Department on Tuesday said U.S. housing starts rose but to a much weaker rate than expected in July, while permits for future home construction fell to their lowest level in more than a year.

Low rates failed to foster demand for loans to purchase a home last week, with demand sliding for the first time in five weeks, MBA data showed.

The MBA's seasonally adjusted purchase index, a tentative early indicator of home sales, decreased 3.4 percent. Demand is down about 42 percent since the tax credit expiration.

To take advantage of the tax credits, buyers had to sign purchase contracts by April 30. Contracts originally had to close by June 30, but that was extended by three months.

The MBA said fixed 15-year mortgage rates averaged 3.99 percent, up from the previous week's record low of 3.95 percent. Rates on one-year adjustable-rate mortgage, or ARMs, decreased to 6.90 percent from 7.00 percent.

bedenklich.....www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2010/...no-return/8186/5/ ...In Israel, of course, officials expend enormous amounts of energy to understand President Obama, despite the assurances they have received from Emanuel, Ross, and others. Delegations from Netanyahu’s bureau, from the defense and foreign ministries, and from the Israeli intelligence community ha  The increased tempo of these visits is only one sign of deepening contacts between Israel and America, as Iran moves closer to nuclear breakout: the chief of staff of the Israeli army, Lieutenant General Gabi Ashkenazi, is said to speak now with his American counterpart, Admiral Mullen, regularly. Mullen recently made a stop in Israel that had one main purpose, according to an Israeli source: “to make sure we didn’t do anything in Iran before they thought we might do something in Iran.”  ....Benjamin Netanyahu feels, for reasons of national security, that if sanctions fail, he will be forced to take action. But an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, successful or not, may cause Iran to redouble its efforts—this time with a measure of international sympathy—to create a nuclear arsenal. And it could cause chaos for America in the Middle East. One of the few people I spoke with in Israel who seemed to be at least somewhat phlegmatic about Iran’s nuclear threat was the country’s president, Shimon Peres, the last member of Israel’s founding generation still in government. Peres sees the Iranian nuclear program as potentially catastrophic, to be sure. But he advocates the imposition of “moral sanctions” followed by economic sanctions, and then the creation of “an envelope around Iran of anti-missile systems so the missiles of Iran will not be able to fly......  Not long ago, the chief of Israeli military intelligence, Major General Amos Yadlin, paid a secret visit to Chicago to meet with Lester Crown, the billionaire whose family owns a significant portion of General Dynamics, the military contractor. Crown is one of Israel’s most prominent backers in the American Jewish community<, and was one of Barack Obama’s earliest and most steadfast supporters. According to sources in America and Israel, General Yadlin asked Crown to communicate Israel’s existential worries directly to President Obama. When I reached Crown by phone, he confirmed that he had met with Yadlin, but denied that the general traveled to Chicago to deliver this message. “Maybe he has a cousin in Chicago or something,”But he did say that Yadlin discussed with him the “Iranian clock”—the time remaining before Iran reached nuclear capability—and that he agreed with Yadlin that the United States must stop Iran before it goes nuclear. ....   ....Gabi Ashkenazi, the Israeli army chief of staff, is said by numerous sources to doubt the usefulness of an attack, and other generals I spoke with worry that talk of an “existential threat” is itself a kind of existential threat to the Zionist project, which was meant to preclude such threats against the Jewish people.... Benjamin Netanyahu feels, for reasons of national security, that if sanctions fail, he will be forced to take action. .... Shimon Peres, the last member of Israel’s founding generation still in government. Peres sees the Iranian nuclear program as potentially catastrophic, to be sure. But he advocates the imposition of “moral sanctions” followed by economic sanctions, and then the creation of “an envelope around Iran of anti-missile systems so the missiles of Iran will not be able to fly.” ..##

Based on months of interviews, I have come to believe that the  administration knows it is a near-certainty that Israel will act against  Iran soon if nothing or no one else stops the nuclear program; and  Obama knows—as his aides, and others in the State and Defense  departments made clear to me—that a nuclear-armed Iran is a serious  threat to the interests of the United States, which include his dream of  a world without nuclear weapons.

..

www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/...lear-sites/61669/

Während sich Amerikas Superreiche selbst dafür feiern, dass sie Milliarden spenden, geht es dem Rest des Landes schlechter denn je. Selten zuvor hatte die USA so viele Langzeitarbeitslose. Die Kluft zwischen den Ärmsten und der Spitze der Gesellschaft hat sich dramatisch geöffnet.
www.spiegel.de/spiegel/0,1518,711867,00.html

US-Langläufer sind seit April um 20 % gestiegen. Aktien-Bullen behaupten, das sei eine Bond-Blase. Was aber würde es für Aktien bedeuten, wenn es KEINE Bondblase wäre, sondern ein deutliches Signal für gestiegene Deflationserwartung?

Oder lässt sich das alles auf den "primitiven" gemeinsamen Nenner bringen, dass in Zeiten, wo QE 2 in der Luft liegt, ALLES hochgekauft wird, das liquide handelbar ist? (Wobei QE 2 ja bislang lediglich "angedacht" wird...)

In dem Fall hätten wir eine General-Rallye dank Sterntalern, die endet, wenn die Sterntaler am Firmament verglühen. Liquidität verdampft beim Verglühen übrigens auch.

noch erzählen werden:

In 2010 gab es Deppen, die sich bei einer Festlegung von 10 Jahren mit einem Zinssatz von 2,3% begnügten ( vergnügten )...

oder

In 2010 wurden sogar noch 2,3% Zinsen gezahlt bei 10- jähriger Laufzeit?

http://www.ariva.de/news/...l-der-Renditen-Nord-LB-3507715?secu=31527

oder sie unterhalten sich über einen Short-Einstieg (sind ja schliesslich Bären-Enkel) nachdem der Dow die wichtige Marke von 975 Pt. nach unten durchbrochen hat.

heute aufgestockt..... im long , thailand ebenfalls......

Der Ratiochart der ETFs TLT:SPY lässt sehr schön erkennen, was Sache ist.

die sich da seit Juli entwickelt. Bin gespannt, wann die platzt.

finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=JKS+Profile

Ach ja: Price/Book 6,2

2009 hat ein Evening Star  seine ganze Kraft entfaltet.
Ob's diesmal auch so kommt?
Natürlich sind es Wochen- und keine Tageskerzen, aber ein Anfang wäre gemacht.
Vielleicht auch nur selektive Wahrnehmung eines Sternenguckers...

market-ticker.org/archives/...-Flash-Crash-A-Forced-Error.html

www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/08/...-mortgage-rates-and.html

Die Refinance-Aktivitäten sind zunächst mal lediglich Anträge auf Refinanzierung der Hypotheken. Laut Dave Rosenberg haben jedoch lediglich etwa 30 bis 40 % der Antragsteller Aussicht auf Erfolg.

globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/...screaming-buy.html

wirtschaftquerschuss.blogspot.com/2010/08/...einzelhandel.html

Eine sehr eingehende Analyse, die aufzeigt, dass im "Wirtschaftswunderland" längst nicht alles glänzt. Exporte werden übrigens nach wie vor vom Bund über die KfW kräftig subventioniert, äh: garantiert.

Eine solche Häufung von Narrow-Bar-Kerzen wie beim Financial ETF XLF habe ich bislang noch nie gesehen.

Die US-Einzelhandelsunternehmen haben seit Q4/08 den größten prozentualen Anstieg an Ratenzahlungskäufen zumindest seit 1990 generiert. Dies halte ich in Anbetracht der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Situation der USA für eine höchst fragwürdige Entwicklung.

George Soros

 

Unterdessen flatterte mir eine weitere interessante Meldung  der US-Börsenaufsicht auf den Schreibtisch. Wie aus einer Pflichtmitteilung  hervorging, baute „Investmentguru“ George Soros innerhalb seiner  Fondsgesellschaft seine Aktienpositionen im Juni drastisch – nämlich um fast die  Hälfte - ab. Da es sich um eine große Fondsgesellschaft handelt, haben wir es  hier mit Milliardenbeträgen zu tun. Bei einzelnen Titeln wie dem brasilianischen  Ölriesen Petrobras und anderen Leitwerten wie dem Discountriesen Wal-Mart, der  Großbank JP Morgan Chase und der Pharmafirma Pfizer wurde nahezu der gesamte  Bestand veräußert. Es gilt als sicher, dass ein großer Teil der freigewordenen  Mittel in US-Staatsanleihen umgeschichtet wurde, zumal die US-Notenbank in der  vergangenen Woche so (Großanleger-) freundlich war, in diesem Segment  Stützungskäufe vorher anzukündigen. Jeder große Fond hat also die Gelegenheit,  sich im Vorfeld einzukaufen und fast sichere Gewinne zu verbuchen, wenn die  Notenbank bald völlig überteuerte Anleihen kauft. Dämlichkeit oder  offensichtliche Manipulation durch die Notenbank, das ist hier die Frage. Auf  alle Fälle bleiben so die Zinsen für Staatsanleihen (und damit für die  Staatschulden) niedrig, was durchaus gewollt ist. 

 

>>>Die anhaltenden Verkäufe durch Chinas Zentralbank stellen nichts weniger als  eine schallende Ohrfeige für die amerikanische Schuldenpolitik dar. China war  über viele Jahre hinweg ein loyaler Gläubiger, der wenig Fragen stellte.  Inzwischen hat man allerdings offenbar auch bei der Peoples Bank of China das  Vertrauen in amerikanische Staatsanleihen verloren. Stattdessen wird zunehmend  diversifiziert. Die Notenbank kauft japanische Yen, britische Pfund und erhöht  vermutlich auch ihre Goldbestände, um ihre Abhängigkeit von den amerikanischen  Staatsanleihen zu verringern.

 

USA: Staatsverschuldung höher als Griechenland

 

ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/08/19/320151/...ndrum-citi-says/
Global stock prices have rallied 6 per cent over the past six weeks, while global bond yields have fallen a collective 25 basis points, according to Citi research. That’s rather contrary to their relationship over the past decade, or so. And yet, we have seen divergences before — specifically in the dreary days of 2009.

But we’ve also, says Citi’s Robert Buckland, seen them rather earlier:

   . . . de-coupling between bond yields and stock prices is not unusual. In fact, a similar event in 2004 contributed to Alan Greenspan’s famous Conundrum speech in 2005. On most occasions the equity market has been proven ‘right’. This would mean the current episode should resolve itself through higher government bond yields, not lower global stock prices.

Citi count eight previous episodes  where bond yields have fallen but equities have rallied, and found that the stock market turned out to be ‘right’ on five occasions.

In other words, after each episode it was bond yields that rose to catch up with stock prices — not stock prices which fell to catch up with bonds.

What to make of the current divergence then?

Buckland reckons the bond market is tracking weaker economic momentum, while equities are looking at strengthening earning expectations. So far, so standard — but why the asset-tinted goggles? :

   We think operating leverage is the answer. Positive operating leverage means companies can turn an uninspiring economic recovery into a healthy profits recovery. Bond yields can follow the L-shaped recovery in some parts of the economy… but equities can follow a V-shaped recovery in EPS… As companies contain costs any growth in revenues makes for big gains in profits. Macro investors, who focus on GDP, often underestimate the impact of operational leverage on EPS.

And Buckland thinks that based on this explanation, the current decoupling between bonds and stocks is not too dissimilar to what happened to make Alan Greenspan so confused in 2005.....

...Just as there was a new and large buyer of government bonds back then, we have another one now – US and European central banks. Talk abounds of further Quantitative Easing. Perhaps low fixed income yields tell us less about economic prospects and more about technical buying of government bonds.

So how was the de-coupling resolved back then? As we show in Figure 10
av.r.ftdata.co.uk/files/2010/08/citibonseqs10.jpg" style="max-width:560px" />
it was via bond yields eventually rising, not stock prices falling. From October 2005 to May 2006 stock prices rallied another 10% while global bond yields rose by 35 basis points.

Our rates strategists, Mark Schofield and Robert Crossley, believe that bond yields will rise. They believe the sustained global economic recovery, the historically low level of bond yields and gloomy fiscal outlook will all contribute to eventually drive yields higher. Their forecasts are for US bond yields to rise by 75 basis points by the end of 2010 and a further 70 basis points by the end of 2011. German 10-year yields are expected to rise by 60 basis points and another 15 basis points over the same periods.

so jedenfalls der Artikel, den Kicky ansprach...

Can't Get Much Higher
By Rev Shark
Street.com Contributor
8/18/2010 4:25 PM EDT

...Once again, the volume was around the lightest of the year and we closed a bit weak but, after the poor start this morning, breadth turned positive and we had some leadership from retailers....

Technically the Nasdaq still hasn't been able to make it through the 50-day simple moving average at 2,229 and the S&P500 sputtered out at 1,100 again. Although we do have positive action, it just isn't very vigorous, and market players seem to be happy keeping some of their powder dry.

It isn't bad action at all, but with volume so low and plenty of technical hurdles to the upside, it isn't an environment where you can feel comfortable with aggressive buying. There is a very good chance we'll roll back over, especially if the indices don't cut through the technical overhead with some conviction in the next day or so.

Smaller, short-term trades continue to be the way to go here, but I'm doing to start watching much more closely for some short-side trades. The oversold conditions that have helped produce this bounce are no longer an issue and further upside (especially on this very light volume) is going to be more difficult.

---

Das "Dead Cross" (Anfang Juli) bleibt als Mahnmal in der Chartwüste stehen. Wenn feuchte Bärenträume wahr werden, folgt ein Rutsch auf 960 im SPX. Das ist die Stoßkante der fehlenden bärischen Untertasse im Schrank.

Cent auf Aussagen eines Großspekulanten oder einer Zockerbank geben. Die wollen einen nur Einspannen oder über den Tisch ziehen. Manchmal machen sie blödsinnige Aktionen aber so schlau sind sie allemal dass sie wissen, dass nur eine Minderheit gewinnen kann.

In a country with monetary sovereignty in a floating exchange rate system (USA & Japan, for instance) the bond market is really nothing more than a mechanism through which the central bank controls the money supply.  It doesn’t actually fund anything as it does in Europe or under a gold standard.  This is best understood by studying the bond auction data in the USA.  Despite constant shrieking of a potential lack of buyers in government bonds over the years we continue to see incredibly high demand for US debt.   The auctions are always oversubscribed.  They never fail.  Why is this?  Why do the buyers keep coming back for more?  The simple answer is because the government puts the buyers there. The auctions are designed not to fail.  How is this you ask?

The government bond market is merely a monetary tool that the central bank utilizes to control the cost (or supply) of money by controlling the level of reserves in the system.  So, when the government auctions bonds they are merely targeting reserves in the system. ..Therefore, it’s incorrect to argue that there won’t be buyers of U.S. bonds – with the banks earning 0.25% on their reserves and the government offering anything above that (depending on duration) the trade is a no-brainer for the banks who hold these reserves.  The government is basically offering them free money and the Central Bank keeps control of the money supply in exchange (at least in theory).  What is not occurring is some sort of funding mechanism.

Over the years the classic hyperinflationist or defaultista argument has been that China will stop buying our debt or that Japan will stop buying our debt.  But the problem with this argument is that China is not our banker.  Japan is not our banker.  What do we care if they buy our bonds?  They desire to net save with the U.S. and we happily send them pieces of paper with old dead white men on them to satisfy this desire.  In recent months Chinese net holdings of U.S. debt declined:....

But U.S. treasury yields continue to plunge.  The demand for this paper is enormous even though the largest holder of these bonds appears to be getting scared off.  The demand is well beyond what the Fed even requires (as previously explained).  While the Chinese fret about U.S. insolvency we’ll gladly keep sending them pieces of paper in exchange for real goods and services. ....

When it comes to this whole debate the most important factor is the mere reality of our economic plight.  As we all know by now, we are currently confronted with the threat of deflation, 9.5% unemployment, 74.8% capacity utilization, falling home prices, durable goods orders that are more than 20% from their peak levels, rising unemployment claims, equity prices that are 30% from their peak and high historical private sector debt levels.  When your options are 0% cash, unstable real estate and equity in what appears like a weak economy that 2.6% government bond doesn’t sound so bad. Perhaps not the best bet in the world, but irrational?  Certainly not.  As Vanguard says, when compared to the long-term growth potential of equities bonds currently look like a fairly good hedge.....

In summary let us remember that a bubble (as it pertains to markets) is an irrational psychological  market environment resulting in extreme disequilibrium and ultimately some form of systemic collapse.  These characteristics are not currently attributable to the U.S government bond market.

sorry und der Link zum Bond Bubble
pragcap.com/the-myth-of-the-great-bond-bubble