Der USA Bären-Thread

Nordkorea hat als Reaktion auf die „feindselige Politik“ der USA eine Aufrüstung seines Atomwaffenarsenals angekündigt. US-Präsident Barack Obama kritisierte daraufhin zum Abschluss des G20-Gipfels in Toronto das kriegerische Verhalten Nordkoreas sowie Chinas bewusste Blindheit im Zusammenhang mit den nordkoreanischen Provokationen.


www.focus.de/politik/weitere-meldungen/...rea-_aid_524291.html

...verbunden mit Exportbeschränkungen.

Neo-Keynesianern zur Warnung:

www.spiegel.de/spiegel/print/d-42001423.html

Da kann man sehen, wohin es führt, wenn unkontrollierte Wirtchaftsstimuli auf eine Wirtschaft treffen, der es an Produktionslücken mangelt.

null

U.S. consumer spending rose slightly more than expected in May even as savings touched their highest level in eight months, a government report showed on Monday.

 

The Commerce Department said spending edged up 0.2 percent after being flat in April. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected consumer spending to rise 0.1 percent.

Consumer spending is being closely watched to gauge the strength of the economic recovery after the government lowered estimates for the first quarter, holding back gross domestic product growth during that period.

A government report on Friday showed consumer spending, which normally accounts for 70 percent U.S. economic activity, rose at a 3 percent pace in the January-March quarter—slower than the 3.5 percent the government had estimated last month.

Spending adjusted for inflation increased 0.3 percent last month after being flat in April. Real spending on services increased 0.3 percent, while spending on goods rose 0.2 percent, reversing the prior month's 0.1 percent decline, the Commerce Department said.

 

Personal income increased 0.4 percent after gaining 0.5 percent in April. Markets had expected income to rise 0.5 percent last month.

Real disposable income climbed 0.5 percent following a 0.6 percent increase the prior month.

The saving rate rose to 4.0 percent from 3.8 percent in April. Savings increased to an annual rate of $454.3 billion, the highest level since September. The report also showed the personal consumption expenditures price index, excluding food and energy, rising 1.3 percent in the 12 months to May.

The index, a key inflation measure monitored by the Federal Reserve, increased 1.2 percent in April.

Wenn ich etwas von (selbsternannten) Neo-Keynesianern lese, gucke ich meistens komisch, und das hat Gründe.

Z.B. :
      aus vorlesungen.info   "Keynes Gleichgewicht"

"Keynes spricht dem Zinsatz die alleinige steuernde Funktion für die Investitionsentscheidungen und Sparvolumen ab. Im Gegenteil gibt es mit der Einführung der Spekulationskkasse sogar eine inverse Reaktion auf dem Geldmarkt. Mit sinkendem Zins wird die Spekulationskasse ausgeweitet."

Das sollte uns bekannt vorkommen. Zockerbanken haben die Null-Zins-Programme der Zentralbanken ja reichlich genutzt. Für Spekulation, wie von Keynes vorausgesehen. Mehr Gelddrucken bringt nicht weiter. Auf Keynes sollte sich Prof. Krugman nicht berufen. 

im Ausland produzieren lassen, dürfte das Problem in der Dienstleistungsgesellschaft nicht mehr auftreten.
Auch nicht mehr jenes, dass die Löhne etwa schneller steigen als die Preise.

Falls der Dollar fällt und die Preise deshalb steigen, werden die Löhne nicht folgen können, dann gibts deflationäre Effekte trotz Inflation, eben Stagflation. Falls der Dollar gar nicht weit genug fallen kann, Deflation pur.

witzig der Spiegel-Titel: "Abitur - Fehlstart ins Leben" , so war das damals für sehr viele - komplett überflüssige Jugendliche überall.... ,-)

Reaktionen aufs Marktumfeld deutlich anders ausfallen als die amerikanischen, der DAX dann aber doch weitgehend hinterherläuft.  Allerdings fällt der Euro stärker zurück, als ich erwartet hätte.

The credit team at RBS in London are getting very bearish and warning clients to "get ready for the cliff-edge," where prices of stocks and commodities will "collapse."

RBS credit chief Andrew Roberts said the edge is just around the corner for the European banking industry and the economies of Europe and the US.

 

"Surely risks associated with us being wrong are low, i.e. rates stay where they are," Roberts wrote in a research note.

"But risks associated with us being right are 10 percent returns in (10-year US Treasurys) and at the same time that equities/commodities will collapse far beyond what even some equity bears anticipate."

As a result Roberts is advising investors to get into maximum long-duration bonds in safe-haven markets.

"This means the US, UK and Germany in that order," he wrote. "Be long gold, think the unthinkable. Get ready for (sub-2-percent yields on two-year Treasurys, sub-2-percent on 10-year bunds) and the UK will not be far behind."

Bulls are, as always, talking up the strength of non-financial firm’s balance sheets and low price earnings ratios, Roberts said. (Click here for world stock markets)

"Call us old fashioned, but we will buy at low price/earning ratios, and sell at high PEs. So a PE now of 20 sits very uncomfortably right at the top of its range if we take out the pre-first Great Depression spike in 1929 and NASDAQ 2000 spike," Roberts wrote.

 

The note also highlights RBS' fears over the health of the European banking system, shaken by the euro zone debt crisis.

"We have seen downgrades continue in Europe this week," he said. There is also a $450 billion shortage of dollar asset funding for non-US banks, he noted.

Focus on 2a-7

We are amazed there is not now immense market and media focus on the new letters that will bring forward the end-game and worsen it: 2a-7, he said.

This new Securities and Exchange Commission rule "forces US money market funds – up to now the provider of USD liquidity to those who need it – to become 'safer,'" Roberts wrote.

"From what we can see, the USA is basically pulling up the drawbridge and retreating into its fortress, trying to protect its financial system from coming European banking problems," he said.

"But the consequence is clear. Banking is about confidence. If you are reliant on markets to fund yourself and that confidence wanes, a total stop can occur immediately/within days," he added.

'Monster' Quantitative Easing Coming

Roberts is predicting the central banks are going to have to start pumping more money into the system.

"With fiscal policy off the agenda, we have always expected more quantitative monetary easing," he wrote. "And this time will be different. We have always argued that buying of bonds is less efficient than guaranteeing yield levels, and that yields are the key, not raising money supply, given demand for credit is dead."

Having seen previous QE simply lower the banks' cost of raising money, Roberts said there will be a new move.

"The next shock and awe will be in the form of large scale QME (Quantitative Monetary Easing), but with one massive difference – it will be focused on lowering yields, not expanding money supply," he said.

"So do not be surprised if the next QME is about guaranteeing yields at, say, 2 percent on the (10-year US Treasury) or lower," he wrote.

A recent paper by the San Francisco Fed argues that interest rates should now be minus 5pc under the bank's "rule of thumb" measure of capacity use and unemployment. The rate is currently minus 2pc when QE is factored in. You could conclude, very crudely, that the Fed must therefore buy another $2 trillion of bonds, and even more if Europe's EMU debacle goes from bad to worse. I suspect that this hints at the Bernanke view, but it is anathema to hardliners at the Kansas, Richmond, Philadephia, and Dallas Feds.

Societe Generale's uber-bear Albert Edwards said the Fed and other central banks will be forced to print more money whatever they now say, given the "stinking fiscal mess" across the developed world. "The response to the coming deflationary maelstrom will be additional money printing that will make the recent QE seem insignificant," he said.

Despite the apparent rift with Europe, the US is arguably tightening fiscal policy just as hard. Congress has cut off benefits for those unemployed beyond six months, leaving 1.3m without support. California has to slash $19bn in spending this year, as much as Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Hungary, and Romania combined. The states together must cut $112bn to comply with state laws. ....

It is sobering that zero rates, QE a l'outrance, and an $800bn fiscal blitz should should have delivered so little. Just as it is sobering that Club Med bond purchases by the European Central Bank and the creation of the EU's €750bn rescue "shield" have failed to stabilize Europe's debt markets. Greek default contracts reached an all-time high of 1,125 on Friday even though the €110bn EU-IMF rescue is up and running. Are investors questioning EU solvency itself, or making a judgment on German willingness to back pledges with real money?

Clearly we are nearing the end of the "Phoney War", that phase of the global crisis when it seemed as if governments could conjure away the Great Debt. The trauma has merely been displaced from banks, auto makers, and homeowners onto the taxpayer, lifting public debt in the OECD bloc from 70pc of GDP to 100pc by next year. As the Bank for International Settlements warns, sovereign debt crises are nearing "boiling point" in half the world economy.

Fiscal largesse had its place last year. It arrested the downward spiral at a crucial moment, but that moment has passed. There is a time to love and a time to hate, a time for war and a time for peace. The Krugman doctrine of perma-deficits is ruinous - and has in fact ruined Japan. The only plausible escape route for the West is a decade of fiscal austerity offset by helicopter drops of printed money, for as long as it takes.

Some say that the Fed's QE policies have failed. I profoundly disagree. The US property market - and therefore the banks - would have imploded if the Fed had not pulled down mortgage rates so aggressively, but you can never prove a counter-factual.

The case for fresh QE is not to inflate away the debt or default on Chinese creditors by stealth devaluation. It is to prevent deflation.
......
We are much nearer the tipping today. The M3 money supply has contracted by 5.5pc over the last year, and the pace is accelerating: the 'trimmed mean' index is now 0.6pc on a six-month basis, the lowest ever. America is one twist shy of a debt-deflation trap.

There is no doubt that the Fed has the tools to stop this. "Sufficient injections of money will ultimately always reverse a deflation," said Bernanke. The question is whether he can muster support for such action in the face of massive popular disgust, a Republican Fronde in Congress, and resistance from the liquidationsists at the Kansas, Philadelphia, and Richmond Feds. If he cannot, we are in grave trouble.
www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/...he-Federal-Reserve.html

Russia's top energy official said he expected BP chief executive Tony Hayward to step down soon, ahead of a meeting with him in Moscow later today.

"We know that Tony Hayward is leaving his position and he will introduce his successor," Igor Sechin told reporters ahead of his meeting with the embattled BP boss. Sechin, Russia's deputy prime minister and the chairman of the country's biggest oil company Rosneft, was responding to a question about what would be discussed at the meeting....aber BP sagt,das stimmt nicht? www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/jun/28/...ll-bill-100m-day

immer noch und durch die Nebenwirkungen der Verschuldungsrettung, und sieht darin Gefahren für einen Rückfall des Patienten. Allerdings seien die Kassen für eine erneute Rettung nun leer...

www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/...t-vor-neuer-Krise-article943504.html

erfordern die Gründung eigener Banken. Siemens Bank startet unbelastet.


Das Volumen der Problemkredite deutscher Banken hat sich einer Studie zufolge im vergangenen Jahr verdoppelt. Nach Berechnungen der Wirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaft PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) hatten die Geldhäuser Ende 2009 sogenannte notleidende Kredite («Non-Performing Loans», NLP) im Wert von 213 Milliarden Euro in ihren Büchern. Die Summe war etwa doppelt so groß wie 2008.

Damit habe Deutschland weit mehr Schuldner, die mit ihrer Rückzahlung in Verzug sind, als andere europäische Länder, hieß es. Banken im Vereinigten Königreich verzeichneten demnach im Dezember vergangenen Jahres eine Belastung von rund 155 Milliarden Euro, in Spanien summierte sich das Volumen der faulen Kredite auf 96,8 Milliarden Euro. Italienische Banken hatten eine Belastung von 59 Milliarden Euro zu tragen.


Einige Banken hätten die Voraussetzungen für den Verkauf von Problemkrediten bereits durch die Bildung interner Abwicklungseinheiten geschaffen. «Dabei dürften zunächst hypothekengesicherte Kredite für Wohn- und Gewerbeimmobilien im Fokus stehen», erklärte Rönnberg.
www.news.de/wirtschaft/855063014/...n-voller-fauler-kredite/1/

habe ich mich beim Kaffee verschluckt. Bin deshalb short.

O.T. aber trotzdem eine Meldung wert:

Der Tod Hayeks hinterlasse eine grosse Lücke in der Schweizer Uhrenindustrie, sagte der Chef der Uhrenfirma Hublot, Jean-Claude Biver, gegenüber dem Westschweizer Radio RSR. Die Schweiz verliere einen aussergewöhnlichen und visionären Unternehmer.

Der Vollblutunternehmer Hayek war die treibende Kraft hinter der Wiedergeburt der Schweizer Uhrenindustrie in den 1980er Jahren. 1985 übernahm er die Mehrheit der Schweizerischen Gesellschaft für Mikroelektronik und Uhrenindustrie (SMH), die Vorgängergesellschaft der Swatch Group.

www.bluewin.ch/de/index.php/24,291323/.../news/wirtschaft/sda/

Wo bleibt der Dollar-Infarkt ?

blog.markusgaertner.com/2010/06/28/...eibt-der-dollar-infarkt/

Die Krisenbewältigung beginnt erst

blog.markusgaertner.com/2010/06/28/...ewaltigung-beginnt-erst/

Die Auszehrung Amerikas

blog.markusgaertner.com/2010/06/28/die-auszehrung-amerikas/

Morgen schlägt die Stunde der Wahrheit: Dann muss die EZB erneut für Griechenland in die Bresche springen und Anleihen des Landes aufkaufen. An diesem Tag fliegen die von den Ratingagenturen herabgestuften griechischen Staatsanleihen aus wichtigen Bond-Indizes. Indexfonds und anderen Geldverwaltern bleibt keine Wahl: Sie müssen verkaufen.

http://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/anleihen/...griechenland;2609248

(der Chart unten mit -3,2 % ist 20 min. zeitverzögert)