Der USA Bären-Thread

FTD - Das Kapital

Viel Spaß beim Investieren

Die Aktienanleger sollten sich weder Anleihenrenditen von zwei noch

... (automatisch gekürzt) ...

http://www.ftd.de/finanzen/maerkte/marktberichte/...ren/50034553.html

- The upper class has got all the money and pays no taxes
- The middle class does all the work and pays all the taxes
- The poor are only here to scare.

wie wahr! Und in diesen Tagen der steuerlich finanzierten Unternehmensgewinne umso wahrer.

Wieso schreit der Vatikan nicht auf? Der war doch bis jetzt die "Schnittstelle zu Gott"..

Vielleicht hat GS durch seine Erfahrung mit High-Frequency Trading inzwischen ein besseres Schnittstellen-Knowhow als der Papst? Der Vatikan braucht dringend ein Update. Die Bandbreite von Rosenkränzen reicht heute nicht mehr aus.

Paul Krugman zu der Demo am Donnerstag vor dem Weissen Haus,die von den Republikanern initiiert war
www.nytimes.com/2009/11/09/opinion/...tml?_r=1&ref=opinion
Last Thursday there was a rally outside the U.S. Capitol to protest pending health care legislation, featuring the kinds of things we’ve grown accustomed to, including large signs showing piles of bodies at Dachau with the caption “National Socialist Healthcare.” It was grotesque — and it was also ominous. For what we may be seeing is America starting to be Californiafied......  
      And if Tea Party Republicans do win big next year, what has already happened in California could happen at the national level. In California, the G.O.P. has essentially shrunk down to a rump party with no interest in actually governing — but that rump remains big enough to prevent anyone else from dealing with the state’s fiscal crisis. If this happens to America as a whole, as it all too easily could, the country could become effectively ungovernable in the midst of an ongoing economic disaster.

The point is that the takeover of the Republican Party by the irrational right is no laughing matter. Something unprecedented is happening here — and it’s very bad for America.


PS:mein neuer Avatar ist ein  Roter Bär der Indianer

ohne Grenzen, wehalb auch nicht, mit Geld kann man alles kaufen und mit tripple auch seine Seele verkaufen.

But the statistical system is not yet up to the task of sorting out which components are made here, which are made overseas and the resulting impact on employment...

The statistical distortions can be significant. At worst, the gross domestic product would have risen at only a 3.3 percent annual rate in the third quarter instead of the 3.5 percent actually reported, according to some experts at the conference. The same gap applies to productivity. And the spread is growing as imports do.

That may help to explain why the recovery from the 2001 recession was a jobless one for many months and why the recovery from this recession is likely to generate few jobs for many months...
The same holds for services. An accounting firm in New York with 50 employees outsources some of its functions to less expensive accountants in India: the paperwork on an income tax return, for example. That work comes back to New York by computer transmission and is billed at New York rates, as if it were value added in this country. .......

weil´s so schön ist hier komplett der Artikel in der Sunday Times
www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/...cas/article6907681.ece
Auszug:aus 7 Seiten Artikel!
.....He understands that "people are pissed off, mad, and bent out of shape" at bankers’ actions. Goldman played its part in the meltdown that almost destroyed the global financial system. It, like most other banks, lent too much money, made its first quarterly loss for more than a decade last year and ended up taking bail-out cash from Washington. "I know I could slit my wrists and people would cheer," he says. But then, he slowly begins to argue the case for modern banking. "We’re very important," he says, abandoning self-flagellation. "We help companies to grow by helping them to raise capital. Companies that grow create wealth. This, in turn, allows people to have jobs that create more growth and more wealth. It’s a virtuous cycle." To drive home his point, he makes a remarkably bold claim. "We have a social purpose."

Social purpose? Those who have lost their jobs or seen their pay slashed thanks to bankers who flogged dodgy mortgages and dreamt up investments so complex not even they understood them, would gladly tell him where to stick his social purpose. But the problem is, Blankfein is a good advertisement for wealth creation. His own. He is no scion of privilege, dispensing plummy-voiced homilies to raw capitalism from his 30th-floor eyrie. Born in a tough neighbourhood in the Bronx, the son of a postal worker and a receptionist, he was the first in his family to go to college and used financial aid to go to Harvard.

Even though he proudly pays himself more in a year than most of us could ever dream of — $68m in 2007 alone, a record for any Wall Street CEO, to add to the more than $500m of Goldman stock he owns — he insists he’s still "a blue-collar guy".

But what about the charge sheet? Bankers brought the world to the brink of bankruptcy and instead of doing the decent thing and jumping out of the nearest window, they turned up cap in hand to governments to hoover up taxpayers’ money to save their skin. Now, just one year on, they are carrying on as if nothing has happened, gambling, and winning, handsomely, with our cash. Goldman’s profits in the second quarter were a record $3.4 billion. Most of the money is being made in trading in bonds, currencies and commodities.

Goldman is coining it again for two reasons. First, global markets are booming — up 50% from the credit-crunch lows, as new money, much of it from governments, has gushed into the financial system. Second, with Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns off the street, Merrill Lynch a crippled shadow of its former self, and neither Citigroup nor UBS the forces of old, Goldman has a bigger slice of a growing pie. "We didn’t f*** up like the other guys. We’ve still got a balance sheet. So, now we’ve got a bigger and richer pot to piss in," is how one Goldman banker puts it. Small wonder the bank is on course to set aside over $20 billion for salaries and bonuses.

.....Whatever the truth behind the bail-out, not even the smartest Goldmanite can deny that it is only thanks to government aid that the bank still has a financial system to work with. Washington has bolstered the US economy and banks to the tune of $12 trillion. Does Blankfein not acknowledge that it is maddening for most of us to watch Goldman gobble up so much cash while we struggle? Quite the opposite. He insists we should be celebrating his bank’s success, not condemning it. "Everybody should be, frankly, happy," he says. Can he be serious? Deadly. Goldman’s performance, he argues, is the firmest indication of a nascent economic recovery that will benefit not just him and his firm but all of us. "The financial system led us into the crisis and it will lead us out."

Blankfein goes on to say something equally audacious. We should welcome the return of titanic paydays at Goldman.....
Like a patient who has survived a near-death experience, for Blankfein the credit crunch has rekindled his innate passion for moneymaking. Talking to him is like talking to a man who has greenbacks, not blood, running through his veins. He believes he’s good at what he does and what he does is good. He has his supporters. Vanity Fair awarded him the coveted No 1 spot in its 2009 New Establishment list, its league table of the 100 top power players in the information age, above such luminaries as the Apple boss, Steve Jobs, and the Google founders, Sergey Brin and Larry Page. Others, such as the New York Times columnist Andrew Ross Sorkin, argue that the public "cannot have it both ways". At the height of the crisis last year, Sorkin recalls, "many crossed their fingers, hoping Goldman and the rest of Wall Street would be saved to halt the downward spiral. But now when the banks finally get back on their feet, we want them to fall flat again". ......

und weiter mit Berichten über die superintelligenten Mitarbeiter...

Tyler Durdan in altgewohnter Schärfe zu OTC Derivaten,der Verschuldung der USA  und den  drohenden Gefahren
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/here-there-be-big-nymbers-sic
.....the total notional value of all OTC derivative contracts as of the most recent count (sucks to be on the recount committee), was $592,000,000,000,000.00 at the end of 2008. Fear not: this number is actually a reduction from the most recent previous read of $683,700,000,000,000.00 in June of 2008. Well wait, that thing we said about fear not, ignore that: because the net notional, or the market value of all OTC contracts, i.e. what someone (cough taxpayer cough) would be on the hook for when the Fed's plans go astray, increased by 66.5% over the same period, to $33,900,000,000,000.00. Like we said, big numbers - and this is just OTC. The real number includes regulated exchanges, and to estimate that, double the numbers above. In totality, the "sidebets" on everything from interest rates, to F/X to corporate default risk, amount to about $1.3-$1.4 quadrillion (that's 15 zeroes before the decimal comma) in terms of uncollateralized liquidity (think inflation buffer): take all those zeroes away and the value of the dollar would go down by 1E10-15: you listening yet American middle class? And the actual exposure, or "money at risk" is roughly $60 trillion: a number which is about the same as the world GDP if one were to remove all the various stimulus programs. Take away Goldman, JP Morgan, and all the other wannabe BSD's, and this is what you end up with: the heart and soul of the Too Big To Fail monster itself. And there is no way on earth to stop that mangled, mutated heartbeat without destroying the very fabric of both our capital markets and societal system. Please give the FederalReserve a golf clap for this truly amazing accomplishment.

So with everyone and the kitchen sink focused on CDS and the neutron bomb that they undoubtedly must be if even such anointed shamans of CDSology as David Einhorn (one wonders, will David donate the billions of dollars he has made while trading CDS to charity?) say they are evil incarnate, here is the truth about CDS courtesy of the Fed's Fed- the Bank of International Settlements.

The volume of outstanding CDS contracts fell 27.0% to $41.9 trillion against a background of severely strained credit markets and increased multilateral netting of offsetting positions by market participants. This was a continuation of the developments seen in the first half of 2008. Single-name contracts declined by 22.8% to $25.7 trillion while multi-name contracts, a category that includes CDS indices and CDS index tranches, saw a more pronounced decrease of 32.7%, to $16.1 trillion.

Despite the lower outstanding volumes, the gross market value for CDS contracts increased by 78.2% to $5.7 trillion as a result of the credit market turmoil. Gross market values grew 95.6% to $3.7 trillion for single-name contracts and 52.5% to $2.0 trillion for multi-name contracts. [As noted previously, the $5.7 trillion number has since collapsed to under $3 trillion as per most recent DTCC data]....

Less than $3 trillion? I mean, how is that even worthy of an FT op-ed? Most people won't even bend over to pick up a $3 trillion bill on the street: sorry - if it doesn't have a quint-, or at least a quadr- in front of the -illion, people frankly don't give a shit, thank you Tim Geithner. Trillion is just so..... pre-Obama.

Yet where it gets moderately interesting is when analyzing Interest Rate derivatives (swaps, options and forwards), not only because the numbers suddenly really perk up, but because of the $420 trillion in notional OTC total, about $200 trillion is held by none other than the usual zombie stooges: Goldman, JPM, BofA, C and WFC. Do you see now why the Fed will kinda, sorta always and forever be forced to bail out this unholy pentagram? The shitstorm as a result of the collapse of one or more of the five major spokes of at least $420 trillion (and as much as $840 trillion) in IR derivs would basically wipe out anyone and everything in its path. No exceptions.

....CDS, when handled by the current group of greedy, risk seeking idiots, will undoubtedly destroy the world. It is just a matter of time. However, to keep things in perspective, how about we also consider Interest Rate swaps, whose numerical danger is more than 5x that of CDS (again, really big n(y)mbers here). And we haven't even touched on FX, commodity, and equity derivatives.

Which brings us to our point: thank you Mr. Einhorn for finally starting to focus people's attention on one of the many facets of the Fed's uncontrollable liquidity Frankenstein. CDS, while destructive, is merely the appetizer. What will truly annihilate financial markets are all those instruments that are in place only to perpetuate the myth that a 5% interest rate in 30 year Treasurys is somehow exorbitant (based on a quick back of the envelope calc, should prevailing interest rates move higher by 1%, the net IR exposure will rise by $3 trillion... in the wrong direction... at an exponential pace). Yet what better way to keep rates where they are than than to tell China: "Hey guys, you bust one auction, and this spring loaded balloon full of $420 trillion pieces of worthless Washington feces will blow up right in your face (and take us all down with you)." In essence this is an amusing revision of that old fable: the Fed owes the world a few billion here and there: well, Ben, you are out of luck, "You're Fired"; the Fed owes the world $1.4 quadrillion in naked and worthless pieces of paper (whose nudity will become apparent the second someone calls Bernanke's bluff) and the Fed owns the world. ...

sehr ungeschickt und bedient mit seinen Aussagen die gängigen Klischees und Vorurteile. Er und wir können nur auf die politische Stabilität der USA hoffen, die er mit solchen Aussagen nicht fördert.

die Exter Pyramide
www.zerohedge.com/article/...is-exters-2-quadrillion-liquidity

Dividendenrendite interessiert keinen mehr, es zählt nur noch der prozentuale Gewinn an der Börse. Hier heisst es: Die ersten werden die ersten sein. ( First in First Out. ) , das Prinzip des Ponzi Scheme.

Dax - Dreht er gleich wieder?

von Robert Schröder

Nein, der Dax ist nach der letzten Analyse "Könnte er jetzt direkt durchrauschen?" nicht direkt nach unten durchgerauscht. Er hat sich der wahrscheinlicheren Gegenbewegung Richtung 5.600er Marke gewidmet und stieg im heutigen Tageshoch auf 5.590 Punkte.

Die Aufwärtsbewegung seit dem Tief 3.11 mit 5.313 ist bisher äußerst zäh und volatil. Sie passt damit in die Annahme einer laufenden Korrektur gegen den Trend. Die Wellenzählung ist im Detail nicht ganz eindeutig. Zum Einen könnte die Gegenbewegung in Form der Welle 2/b ab dem genanten Tief abgezählt werden. Zum Anderen ist jedoch auch eine irreguläre Korrektur nicht gänzlich ausgeschlossen. Hier würde die laufende Korrektur dementsprechend schon am 29.10 begonnen haben. Am Ergebnis der Prognose würde das zunächst aber nichts ändern.

Ein direkter Test der 5.600 Punkte bzw. der roten Widerstandslinie ist heute noch möglich. Allerdings muss ab diesem Niveau mit einer größeren Umkehrbewegung (Welle 3/c) gerechnet werden, die den Dax im Laufe dieser Woche auf 5.250/5.200 zurückfallen lassen würde.

A widening gap between data and reality is distorting the government’s picture of the country’s economic health, overstating growth and productivity in ways that could affect the political debate on issues like trade, wages and job creation. #0000ff">(Interessant mit welcher Offenheit in der NYtimes dieses Thema angegangen wird.)

 

The shortcomings of the data-gathering system came through loud and clear here Friday and Saturday at a first-of-its-kind gathering of economists from academia and government determined to come up with a more accurate statistical picture.

The fundamental shortcoming is in the way imports are accounted for. A carburetor bought for $50 in China as a component of an American-made car, for example, more often than not shows up in the statistics as if it were the American-made version valued at, say, $100. The failure to distinguish adequately between what is made in America and what is made abroad falsely inflates the gross domestic product, which sums up all value added within the country.

 

American workers lose their jobs when carburetors they once made are imported instead. The federal data notices the decline in employment but fails to revalue the carburetors or even pinpoint that they are foreign-made. Because it seems as if $100 carburetors are being produced but fewer workers are needed to do so, productivity falsely rises — in the national statistics.

“We don’t have the data collection structure to capture what is happening in a real time way, or what is being traded and how it is affecting workers,” said Susan Houseman, a senior economist at the W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research in Kalamazoo, Mich., who has done pioneering research in the field. “We have no idea how to measure the occupations being offshored or what is being inshored.”

 

The statistical distortions can be significant. At worst, the gross domestic product would have risen at only a 3.3 percent annual rate in the third quarter instead of the 3.5 percent actually reported, according to some experts at the conference. The same gap applies to productivity. And the spread is growing as imports do.

That may help to explain why the recovery from the 2001 recession was a jobless one for many months and why the recovery from this recession is likely to generate few jobs for many months.

In addition, more detailed import data would help to explain wage inequality, by linking some low wages more accurately to particular industries exposed to import competition.

 

On another front, many argue that labor productivity is rising faster than the pay of workers who made the greater productivity possible. That argument would be watered down if more accurate data showed that productivity had been overstated. #000080">(Wir rechnen uns die Produktivität schön.)

“What we are measuring as productivity gains may in fact be changes in trade,” said William Alterman, assistant commissioner for international prices at the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The federal agencies that compile the nation’s statistics increasingly acknowledge that they lack the detailed data needed to calculate the impact of imported goods and services as imports rise from an insignificant 5 percent of all economic activity 35 years ago to more than 12 percent today, not counting petroleum. As a result, many imports are valued as if they were made in the United States and therefore higher in price than their imported counterparts.

The problem is particularly acute in manufacturing. Imported components constitute an ever greater share of the computers, autos, appliances and other finished merchandise that roll off assembly lines in the United States — and an ever greater share of all of the nation’s imports.

But the statistical system is not yet up to the task of sorting out which components are made here, which are made overseas and the resulting impact on employment. As Lori G. Kletzer, an economist at the University of California, Santa Cruz, put it, “We don’t know what jobs have been offshored.”

The same holds for services. An accounting firm in New York with 50 employees outsources some of its functions to less expensive accountants in India: the paperwork on an income tax return, for example. That work comes back to New York by computer transmission and is billed at New York rates, as if it were value added in this country.

Grappling with these blind spots, nearly all of the 80 experts at the conference, which was sponsored by the Upjohn Institute and the National Academy of Public Administration, agreed that the statistics now published tend to overstate the strength of the economy. That view was shared by those who attended from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Federal Reserve, all big players in measuring economic performance.

The stated goal, among those at the conference, is to repair the statistics, but that requires several years, lots of money (from Congress) to gather more information about what companies are doing, and whole new procedures for measuring imports. Much of the conference was devoted to an analysis of the gap between existing data and reality, and ways to close that gap.

Imports and exports are recorded, of course, as they enter and leave the country. The American trade deficit speaks volumes. But when it comes to who gets what import — particularly which manufacturer gets what component or what metal or what machine — these details are not gathered.

Instead, the federal agencies use an import price index, much of it imputed from small samples, that fails to capture just when an auto company switches from a domestically made carburetor to a less expensive Chinese model, and whether that shift is in all of the company’s plants or just those in Michigan.

“We can’t pick up the price shift,” Mr. Alterman said. “We are not designed to do that.”

China will lift gasoline and diesel prices by around 7 percent from 1600 GMT on Monday to reflect the rising cost of crude oil, taking pump prices to their highest ever, a government official told Reuters on Monday.

The rise in prices was widely expected but the size, at 480 yuan ($70.32) per tonne, was more than the increase of around 350 yuan ($51.27) most market participants had expected, suggesting that China sees little danger of the inflationary worries that beset price rise decisions as little as a year ago.

 

The price rise is the first such adjustment in two months and the eighth this year, after four previous rises and three cuts. For a table of historical rises, please click on

The decision by China's price-setting ministry, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), means higher costs for China's swelling ranks of gas-guzzling motorists and for its huge industrial and agricultural sectors, the main users of diesel.

"There is no sign these price increases will curb demand — we think Chinese demand growth will continue and that it will continue to be supportive of global oil markets," said Mike Wittner, global head of oil research at Societe Generale.

 

All the evidence suggested demand would keep growing rapidly after rising 1.7 million barrels per day between January and July this year, he said. "The line is pretty much straight up."

The rise gives breathing room to state oil refiners Sinopec Corp and PetroChina, who have seen their margins crunched in recent weeks by a U.S. light crude oil price nudging up to and past $80 per barrel.

"The NDRC is sticking to its commitment that the flat price will not affect China's refining run rates," said a trading analyst with a Western firm. "It will be bullish for crude markets — potentially a big impact."

Record Refinery Runs

China's refineries have processed record amounts of crude since April, with monthly refining volumes breaking through 30 million tonnes in May and staying above

that level until at least September. Data for October is due to be issued on Wednesday.

"This will keep China's refining rates high, which again will support the country's crude imports," said an analyst who asked not to be named.

The heightened refining activity has in turn pushed China's apparent oil demand to record levels, although China has cast off large volumes of diesel and gasoline as exports.

Higher prices may give refiners more incentive to produce but they also may find fewer buyers, and traders said they expected gasoline exports, which barely slipped below 300,000 tonnes between April and September, to stay above that level this month.

"Although it does not have an immediate impact on the Chinese demand numbers it might lead to lower demand growth expectations and to weigh on prices due to psychological effects," said Eugen Weinberg, head of commodity research at Commerzbank in Frankfurt.

In its last adjustment to prices, China cut fuel prices by a modest 3 percent or 190 yuan per tonne for both gasoline and diesel on Sept 30 as global crude stood at around $67 a barrel.

That put domestic pump prices at an equivalent crude price of about $60 a barrel, a government think-tank researcher said.

"And it seems that the government is inclined to keep a $7-8 gap between the domestic price and global crude prices," he said.

Under the year-old pricing mechanism, Beijing may change fuel prices when a 22-day moving average crude price moves more than 4 percent.

"When they first started changing prices, there was concern in some quarters that this might have an impact on Chinese consumption growth," said Wittner. "But there is absolutely no sign of that. I take this as neutral for the global oil market."

Doom and Gloom on MainStreet.

Da bleibt man besser nur Zuschauer. Shorts scheinen im aktuellen Feiermodus gefährlich zu sein. So lange es Geld zum quasi Nulltarif gibt wird Druck aufgebaut.
Longpositionen verbieten sich aufgrund der schlechten fundamentalen Lage.

Abwarten und Tee  trinken.

 

Permanent

Bring mir doch bitte eins Deiner Kölsch`s.

Ich bin mehr für das Köpi zuständig.

http://www.koenig-filmaward.de/index.1577.html

Permanent

Aus dem Handelsblatt:


Verbriefungen: Banken fordern neue Anschubhilfen

Nach Ansicht des Bankenverbandes sollte der Bund auf sein 75 Mrd. Euro schweres Bürgschaftsprogramm zurückgreifen, um den Verbriefungsmarkt zu stützen.

und weiter unten

"Staatliche Garantien könnten nach Meinung der branchenweit genutzten Verbriefungsplattform True Sale International (TSI) einen gewaltigen Effekt erzielen: „Wenn der Staat in die mittleren Tranchen von Verbriefungen investiert oder Garantien gibt, dann ist der Hebel enorm“, sagte TSI-Geschäftsführer Hartmut Bechtold. Mit 20 Mrd. bis 30 Mrd. Euro könnte der Bund rund 100 Mrd. Euro an Eigenmitteln freisetzen."
--------------------------------------------------

Aber hallo! Herziger Name dieser Verbriefungsplattform: "wahrer (oder echter) Verkauf". Da sollte der Bund mal schnell einsteigen, denn dann wären seine Haushaltsprobleme mit einem Schlag gelöst. (Achtung: Ironie!)

market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/...Cashing-Out-401ks.html

In der in diesem Blog beschriebenen Entwicklung einer zunehmenden "Versilberung" von Pensionsplänen könnte eine Erklärung für den Anstieg der Verbraucherausgaben in den letzten Monaten liegen. Dieser Anstieg korrespondiert nämlich nicht mit den Fed-Daten zu den Verbraucherkrediten (seit nunmehr acht Monaten in Folge quasi in freiem Fall). Anscheinend versuchen viele (Teilzeit-)Beschäftigte und Arbeitslose nunmehr die  Konsumfinanzierungslücken aus ausgereizten Kreditkartenverträgen durch solch wahnwitzige Schritte wie Cash Outs von Pensionsansprüchen zu schließen.

meinem Fall. :)

bis Weihnachten gehts rauf, die USA sind schon im Santa-Claus-Fieber.

In God We Trust! Halleluja!

Kanns kaum erwarten bis auch bei uns die Weihnachtsmärkte starten und mir der Glühwein den Verstand raubt. ;-))

ist, dass sie sich an Datenlagen und Szenarien der Vergangenheit "entlanghangeln" und diese als Referenz nehmen. Dies kann bei 0 % Zins dazu führen, dass sie falsche Buy-Signale rausgeben. Handelt es sich dabei nur um ein kleines HS eines Hintertreppen-Traders, so ist dies nicht weiter tragisch. Der wird, wenn er falsch liegt, einfach platt gemacht.

Problematisch ist die Lage, wenn diejenigen, die die "falsch programmierten" Rechner laufen haben, zugleich über riesige Kapitalmengen verfügen (GS und JPM, Geld kommt sogar womöglich von der Fed). Denn dann werden die zweifelhaften Vorgaben kraft ihrer schieren Masse zu einer Sich-selbst-erfüllenden-Prophezeihung. Momentum füttert sich selbst, egal was der Grund ist/war.

Da jedoch offenbar "wenig erhellende" Vergleichsdaten und zweifelhafte Annahmen (z. B. die, dass stimuliertes Wachstum von allein zu selbsttragendem Wachstum wird) zugrundeliegen, können Bären nach wie vor auf die "Sollbruchstelle" hoffen. Sie käme, wenn "das viele Geld" plötzlich wieder raus will, weil sich die Dinge "anders darstellen als errechnet". Dann gibt es plötzlich nachhaltiges und kaum zum bremsenden Abwärtsmomentum - wie in der 2. JH 2008.

WANN das kommt, weiß niemand. Der DOW hat mit 10.170 gerade ein neues Jahreshoch erreicht, EUR/USD steht über 1,50. Der maschinen-getriebene Dollar-Carrytrade rollt weiter. Automaten sind unbeirrbar. Leider - oder zum Glück? - fehlt ihnen der gesunde Menschenverstand. Das kann schlussendlich teuer werden für die "Betreiber".

Garantiezins bestanden. Kein Wunder, dass die Allianz durch die Decke geht, wenn sie diese Last los ist. ;-)

Investors snapped up a record $40 billion in three-year notes as the first leg of another big Treasury auction kicked off to a solid start.

 

The three-year notes fetched a high yield of 1.404 percent with a bid-to-cover of 3.33, meaning $3.33 cents were bid for each $1 auctioned.

Treasurys gained immediately afterwards, with the benchmark 10-year note up 5/32 to yield 3.47 percent, down a notch from before the auction.

A combination of short-covering and buying of longer-dated debt had pushed up bond prices earlier amid expectations the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates near zero well into 2010, analysts said.

 

The market's rise was mitigated by a rally on Wall Street in the wake of a pledge by the Group of 20 industrialized nations over the weekend to stick to measures to bolster the global economy.

"The market assumes the Fed's punch bowl will be on the table for awhile. It thinks a lot of liquidity will still be around," said Mark Pawlak, market strategist at Keefe Bruyette & Woods in New York.

"Some folks might look at three-years as the optimal part of the front end to own now," said George Goncalves, head of fixed income rates strategy at Cantor Fitzgerald in New York.

 

In the "when-issued" market, traders expect the pending three-year notes to yield 1.417 percent, higher than the 1.359 percent on the three-year notes actively traded in the open market.

Following the three-year auction, the Treasury will sell $25 billion in benchmark 10-year notes Tuesday and $16 billion in 30-year bonds Thursday.

The U.S. bond market will be closed Wednesday in observance of Veterans Day.

No major data was due Monday following last week's report from the government that showed the U.S. unemployment rate rose to 10.2 percent in October, the highest level in 26-1/2 years.

The disappointing job figures reinforced the notion the Fed will stick to its super-easy monetary policy in a bid to sustain the economic growth that returned in the third quarter.

After last week's policy meeting, Fed officials will speak this week on a range of subjects, ranging from the state of the economy to real estate.

On Monday, Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo will speak about financial regulations at an event in New York on Monday evening.

neuen Namen: Godman Sachs