Der USA Bären-Thread

08:42 Uhr

Jungs, Mädels,

bitte hier nicht in gegenseitige Rechthaberei und Streit geraten! Das ist der US-Bären-Thread und deshalb muss es hier pessimistisch sein... Nein, im Ernst: metropolis, Katjuscha - ich lese mit großem Interesse Eurer Bemühen im Antizykliker-Thread das Tief zu erwischen. Ich glaube auch, dass es da im Moment was zu fischen gibt. Aber machen wir uns umgekehrt nichts vor: selbst eine Ralley von 50% würde uns im Dow Jones auf knapp 10.000 Punkte hieven. Ein Wert, der noch vor einem halben Jahr für einen absoluten Tiefpunkt gehalten worden wäre.

Ich denke man darf hier nicht die kurz- mittel- und langfristigen Perspektiven verwechseln. Im "Quo Vadis" Thread geht es um tages- und stundenweises Handeln. Da sind auch 50 Punkte plus ein echtes Ereignis. Im Antizykliker-Thread geht es um mittelfristige Trends. Da würde ich 500 Punkte als bewegende Größe ansetzten. Und hier im US-Bären-Thread geht es um die langfristige Perspektive, wo erst Bewegungen über 5.000 Punkte als solche wahrgenommen werden.

Ist ein bißchen zugespitzt, denn ich denke hier im US-Bären-Thread geht es noch nicht mal um's große "Zocken". Ich lese hier viele volkswirtschaftlich interessante Beiträge. Zum Handeln schau ich dann öfter im Antizykliker- und Quo-Vadis-Thread vorbei. Und so gesehen haben beide Perspektiven Recht: evtl. gibt es im Moment ein temporäres Tief am Aktienamarkt, aber es kann mir doch keiner erzählen, dass das das Ende der Krise ist. Das wird noch ein steininger Weg - an den Börsen, aber v.a. auch draußen, in der realen Wirtschaft. Deshalb wird es auch den US-Bären-Thread noch eine ganz Weile geben (müssen).

Schon jetzt machen sich die Folgen des Exporteinbruchs auch für den Staatshaushalt bitter bemerkbar. Die wegen der Wirtschafts- und Finanzkrise sinkenden Steuereinnahmen trugen dazu bei, dass das Defizit im vergangenen Jahr mit 3,3 Mrd. Euro doppelt so hoch ausfiel wie bislang prognostiziert. Das BIP sank von Oktober bis Dezember um 2,1 Prozent im Vergleich zum dritten Quartal. Das war das größte Minus seit 1987, bestätigte das Statistische Bundesamt eine erste Schätzung.

Auch die Ökonomen großer Banken erwarten keine schnelle Besserung der Lage. Die im Rekordtempo sinkenden Industrieaufträge und das unter der globalen Rezession leidende Auslandsgeschäft ließen für das erste Quartal eine "ähnlich hässliche Zahl" wie am Jahresende erwarten, sagte UniCredit-Ökonom Alexander Koch. Der Deutschland-Chefvolkswirt der Citigroup, Jürgen Michels, rechnet mit einem Minus von etwa 1,5 Prozent. Bereits im Frühjahr und Sommer war die Wirtschaftsleistung geschrumpft - um jeweils 0,5 Prozent.

Neben der Wirtschaftskrise verursachte auch das Urteil des Bundesverfassungsgerichts zur Pendlerpauschale erhebliche Einnahmeausfälle: Die Rückzahlungen mussten teilweise schon Ende 2008 verbucht werden. Allein der Bund kam insgesamt auf einen Fehlbetrag von 15,8 Mrd. Euro. Die Länder verbuchten ein Minus von 3,6 Mrd. Euro. Dagegen meldeten die Gemeinden einen Überschuss von 8,4 Mrd. Euro und die Sozialversicherungen ein Plus von 7,7 Mrd. Euro.

Trotzdem blieb Deutschland mit einem Defizit von 0,2 Prozent das dritte Jahr in Folge unter der Maastricht-Grenze, die eine Verschuldung von maximal drei Prozent des BIP erlaubt. Steinbrück hofft, trotz der milliardenschweren Konjunkturprogramme die Defizitgrenze auch 2009 einzuhalten. Für 2010 wird allerdings ein Minus von mindestens vier Prozent erwartet.
www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article3275685/...rise-extrem-hart.html

das was Sie nun von sich geben, wußten die Ariva-Bären schon seit mindestens einem halben Jahr, hehehehehe..........

Deutschland überproportional profitieren und wie Phönix aus der Asche aufsteigen wird, sobald sich die Weltwirtschaft wieder erholt.......

ROTFL

Tausende Deutsche sind abhängig von scheinbar harmlosen Nasensprays. Aus eigener Kraft können sie sich nur schwer von der Sucht befreien.

Die Junkies bunkern den Stoff in jeder Jackentasche. Die Fläschchen mit dem Sprühverschluss stecken auch im Aktenkoffer, im Auto-Handschuhfach, in der Schreibtischschublade oder im Nachtkästchen. Panik bricht aus, wenn der Nachschub einmal nicht zur Hand ist. Dann kann es passieren, dass die Süchtigen bei Veranstaltungen oder Essenseinladungen plötzlich schweißüberströmt ins Auto springen - oder sich im Badezimmer am Medikamentenschränkchen der Gastgeber vergreifen. Weit mehr als 100.000 Menschen sind nach Angaben der Deutschen Hauptstelle für Suchtfragen hierzulande von Nasensprays mit abschwellender Wirkung abhängig. "Und die Zahl ist eher zu niedrig gegriffen", glaubt Stefan Tesche, HNO-Spezialist am Hamburger Uni-Klinikum in Eppendorf.

www.spiegel.de/spiegel/0,1518,609020,00.html

www.forbes.com/2009/02/25/...s-columnists_nouriel_roubini.html
ausgerechnet Nouriel Roubini und seine Mitarbeiter stellen die Frage in einem ausführlichen Artikel
......... current problems faced by some European Monetary Union members show that EMU membership alone is no panacea. Moreover, previous experience shows that currency pegs can be double-edged swords that often end in capitulation. The current test case for the entire region is Latvia, whose currency peg looks increasingly fragile even after its IMF-led 7.5 billion-euro bailout package. Devaluation, with its ripple effects, would be devastating for the mostly foreign-owned banks in the region.

Unlike EMU member countries, E.U. countries that have not yet adopted the euro have access to the "medium-term financial assistance" facility worth 25 billion euros, of which 10 billion euros in loans have already been extended to Latvia and Hungary. Additional assistance to the region will have to come from a revamped IMF, as noted before, and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development is also providing funds to banks in the region. Despite a 20% funding boost, however, its resources are much smaller.

Which brings us to Ukraine. European banks are also exposed to vulnerable economies outside of the E.U. Russia is the second-largest borrower from E.U. banks, and it has over $100 billion of debt that must be financed this year.
However, it is the Ukraine that may pose the biggest contagion risk, particularly if the next tranche of IMF-funding continues to be deferred. Austrian, French, Swedish, Italian and German banks have a collective exposure of around 30 billion euros to Ukraine. The country has $46 billion in foreign debt obligations falling due in 2009, and the swift plunge of the Hyrvnia has boosted the cost of servicing these debts even as corporate debts are on the rise. .....
(heute hat S&P Ukraine auf CCC+ gestuft!)
There's more in the region to worry about. The series of riots that erupted in Bulgaria, Lithuania and Latvia in January, followed by Latvia's government collapse last week, raise concerns that Eastern European countries may experience a period of deep destabilization and social strife as the economic crisis deepens and unemployment rates soar....Dissatisfaction linked to the economic woes will be amplified in the countries where governments have been weakened by high-profile corruption and fraud scandals (Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria)....In sum, the crisis could put the E.U.'s free market rules under pressure. A big rise in support for populist and radical parties in the region could put social, structural and environmental reforms on hold and even call into question the economic and political model Eastern European countries have followed since the 1990s....The return of Eastern European migrant workers, in turn, may add to social discontent in their countries of origin.......

Another problem is that big institutional investors in Western Europe — banks, pension funds and insurance companies — have large holdings of East European debt. If the banks need further infusions of capital from Western governments already straining to pay for stimulus packages and to maintain their social safety nets, it could put additional pressure on the euro as well.....

und Kenneth Rogoff diskutiert das Thema in der New York Times
www.nytimes.com/2009/02/24/business/....html?_r=1&ref=business
.....For Central and Eastern Europe, which enjoyed breakneck growth thanks to a wave of credit from these banks, the squeeze could not have come at a worse time. Already bruised by the global downturn, they are on the verge of a downward spiral as the flow of credit dries up. Average growth among countries in the region slid to 3.2 percent last year, from 5.4 percent in 2007. This year, it is forecast to contract by 0.4 percent — and very likely more....Add to that a new worry: International finance officials fret that the worst regional economic crisis since the Berlin Wall came down could set off a contagion among the region’s currencies...."There's a domino effect. International credit markets are linked, and so a snowballing credit crisis in Eastern Europe and the Baltic countries could cause New York municipal bonds to fall.".......

Bericht aus Berlin auf englisch über den Protest der deutschen Bäcker zu Salzvorschriften der EU,ja wer nicht wusste was Bürokratie ist muss sich nur mal die detaillierten Vorschriften der EU zu Lebensmitteln ansehen,da kann einem wirklich der Hut hoch gehen.Da streitet man sich um 0,5g weniger Salz /100g Mehl !              !Natürlich bemerkt der Reporter das steigende Ressentiment eines Landes ,das lange die EU unterstützt hat.(wobei wir wieder an AL´s Behauptung denken müssen ,die angelsächsische und US-Presse würden gerne über europäische Friktionen berichten.)
www.nytimes.com/2009/02/26/business/....html?ref=worldbusiness
Echoing a recent furor over legislation dictating the size, shape and texture of fruits and vegetables, German bakers have criticized a proposal that would force a change in the salt content of their products.

The anger of the bakers — who condemned the bureaucrats in Brussels as “taste police” — seems to reflect a rising resentment of the European Union by a country that has long been among its biggest supporters....
German heavy brown loaves, which are the mainstay of breakfasts and suppers here, contain 1.5 grams of salt for every 100 grams of flour. The European Commission had proposed reducing salt levels to 1 gram for every 100 grams of flour....
“The E.U. is trying to change the way we bake our bread, change the way we market it — and of all things, change the taste of our bread,” Mr. Wiemers said. “And all this is taking place just months before we go to the polls to elect a new European Parliament. This is exactly the kind of interference and overregulation by Brussels that annoys citizens and even makes the E.U. unpopular.”

kann man natürlich auch positiver ausdrücken: AIG soll in drei Teile filetiert werden und bleibt bestehen ....berichtet die Finacial Times heute

AIG and the US authorities are in advanced discussions over a radical restructuring that would split the stricken insurer into at least three government-controlled divisions in an attempt to keep it afloat, according to people close to the situation.

The restructuring, described by one insider as a “controlled break-up”, could lead to the end of AIG’s 90-year history as a stand-alone global insurance conglomerate. It also could provide a template for carving up other troubled financial groups – such as Citigroup – should they be brought under government control...

Under the plan, the government would swap its current 80 per cent holding in the insurer for large stakes in three units – AIG’s Asian operations, its international life insurance business and the US personal lines business. A fourth unit, comprised of AIG’s other businesses and troubled assets, could also be formed.

In return, the authorities would relax the terms, or even cancel a large portion, of a $60bn five-year loan to AIG and convert $40bn-worth of preferred stock into shares, in an effort to ease the company’s burden.

If the plan goes ahead, AIG would remain as a holding company for now. But people involved in the talks say that company could disappear if the government decides to recoup taxpayers’ investments in the insurer by selling or listing the three divisions separately.....

However, people close to the situation said AIG was on track to announce the overhaul on Monday, when it is expected to report a $60bn loss with its fourth-quarter results....
www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fe997b42-0380-11de-b405-000077b07658.html

Japan’s banks did not, as a rule, load up on toxic US mortgage debt. Yet the crisis affected the country deeply. For many years while leverage was easily available, the “carry trade” – borrowing in yen at its low rates to park cash elsewhere – kept Japan’s currency cheap. Then, once the credit market turned, bringing the carry trade down with it, there was a prolonged period when the yen functioned solely as a perverse “safe haven”, gaining whenever volatility was rising, as measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange’s Vix index.The carry trade appears to have been squeezed out of the system by about late November, when the yen and the Vix halted their joint ascent. When the yen peaked a few weeks ago, it had risen on a trade-weighted basis by 48 per cent in barely 18 months.

The yen has weakened in recent days even as volatility has risen, showing that economic fundamentals have at last taken over from the perverse correlations of the credit bubble. The problem now for Japan, and everyone else, is the health of those economic fundamentals. For Japanese trade, the financial crisis had two critical effects – it made its exports too expensive, thanks to the yen appreciation, and it slashed away global demand for those exports. As a result, the latest data show that Japan’s exports have suffered a horrific decline. ...
Japan suddenly has a big trade deficit to deal with. The economic logic is inexorable. Even if investors are feeling nervous, and they are, the yen has nowhere to go but down.....www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6b718234-0370-11de-b405-000077b07658.html

www.sueddeutsche.de/finanzen/55/459694/text/

Britain launched a scheme on Thursday which could end up insuring more than 500 billion pounds ($712 billion) worth of toxic assets in a bid to get lending in the recession-hit economy flowing again.

British retail banks with more than 25 billion pounds in eligible assets will have until March 31 to join the Asset Protection Scheme which will run for a minimum of five years and cover them against huge losses from their riskiest assets.

 

Royal Bank of Scotland, already 70 percent owned by the taxpayer, said on Thursday it would put 325 billion pounds of its assets into the scheme as it also announced the biggest loss in UK corporate history -- 24.1 billion pounds.

Lloyds Banking Group is expected to put in another 200 billion pounds worth of risky assets into the scheme on Friday.

"These are things like commercial loans or mortgages which are worth less now that perhaps they were a few months ago which we hope will increase in value as we get through this recession," said finance minister Alistair Darling. "The object of this is to provide that certainty and that confidence that will maintain lending and that's essential for each and every one of us."

For Full Coverage of Europe's Banking Crisis

In return for the insurance, the government will get a fee and also a commitment to increase lending as a lack of credit is squeezing both consumers and companies, plunging Britain into its first recession since the early 1990s.

RBS said it would raise its lending by an extra 25 billion pounds over the next 12 months.

 

Under the scheme, banks will incur a "first loss" and then be covered for the next 90 percent of falling value.

"Both the "first loss" amount and the residual exposure provide an appropriate incentive for participating institutions to endeavor to keep losses to a minimum on those assets included in the Scheme," the Treasury said.

The scheme will allow banks to put in corporate and leveraged loans, commercial and residential property loans, and structured credit assets including residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities.

The Treasury said it would also consider extending the scheme more widely to other UK incorporated authorized deposit-takers, including subsidiaries of foreign institutions.

Shares of RBS were up over 32 percent, while Lloyds TSB shares rose 27 percent and Barclays was up almost 14 percent.

in bester Bildzeitungsmanier die Überschrift eines Artikels ,ein Bericht über ein Interview mit Harvard economic historian Niall Ferguson ,der mir schon gestern irgendwo begegnete. 5 Seiten lang!
www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/...crashandrecovery/home

....Policy makers and forecasters who see a recovery next year are probably lying to boost public confidence, he said. And the crisis will eventually provoke political conflict, albeit not on the scale of a world war, but violent all the same.....
And much of today's mess is the fault of central bankers who targeted consumer-price inflation but purposefully turned a blind eye to asset inflation......

...Here is the world's biggest economy, which gave us subprime mortgages, rampant securitization, the collateralized debt obligation, Lehmann Brothers, Merrill Lynch. It is, in a sense, the fons et origo of this crisis. And yet, because it retains safe-haven status, in a global crisis, investors want to increase their exposure to the U.S. Hence, the dollar rally. Hence 10-year Treasuries down below 3 per cent yields. It's almost paradoxical that an American crisis ... reinforces the status of the United States as a safe haven.”...

....that is a depression-style contraction, and we're in quite early stages of the game at this point. This is before the shock has really played out politically. Before protectionist slogans have really established themselves in the public debate. Buy America is the beginning of something I think we'll see a lot more of. So I think there's a real danger that globalization could unravel....

There will be blood, in the sense that a crisis of this magnitude is bound to increase political as well as economic [conflict]. It is bound to destabilize some countries. It will cause civil wars to break out, that have been dormant. It will topple governments that were moderate and bring in governments that are extreme.

....most of these models, including, I'm told, the one that policy makers here use, don't really have enough data to be illuminating … You're going to end up assuming that this recession is going to end up like other recessions, and the other recessions didn't last that long, so this one won't last so long. But of course this isn't a recession. This is something really quite different in character from anything we've experienced in the postwar era......

Ein Kapital von 10.000 € wird zu 2,3% Zinsen angelegt. Die Zinsen werden dem Kapital jährlich zugeschlagen und dann mitverzinst. Dies kann als exponentielles Wachstum mit dem Wachstumsfaktor 1,03 beschrieben werden. Nach einem Jahr hat man nämlich das Anfangskapital 10.000 * 1plus die Zinsen 10.000 * 0,03. Das kann man so schreiben:

K(n) = 10.000 * 1,03n  (1,03 hoch n).

Die Zinsen steigen durch den Zinseszins exponentiell. An dem Punkt an dem die gesamten

Schulden nicht mehr gesteigert werden können bricht das System vollends zusammen. Eine

stetige und drastische Ausweitung der Geldmenge -die wir bei den Staatsschulden aktuell

erleben- führt mittelfristig zu einer Hyperinflation, es sei denn, der starke Nachfragerückgang   

und die stark verminderte Umlaufgeschwindigkeit des Geldes zerbricht das System bereits zuvor

in Form einer Deflation. Beides führt zwangsläufig zum Staatbankrott.

 

Nun kann ich meine Anlageentscheidung an anpassen in dem ich mir Wahrscheinlichkeiten für

beide Szenarien zurechtlege.

 

Man ertet was man sät.

Gruß

Permanent

President Barack Obama will forecast a 2009 deficit of $1.75 trillion in a budget proposal on Thursday that sets goals of overhauling the healthcare system and shoring up the US economy.

 

The huge deficit would represent 12.3 percent of US gross domestic product -- the largest share since World War II.

Two senior administration officials, speaking on condition of anonymity ahead of the release of the 2010 budget at 11 am New York time, said Obama's expensive policy goals would be offset by cuts to put the country in better fiscal shape.

Federal spending is skyrocketing as officials try to jolt the faltering economy with public-works spending and tax cuts and bail out the troubled financial industry.

Obama, a Democrat, has pledged to halve the more-than $1 trillion deficit he inherited from former Republican President George W. Bush in four years. The budget lays out spending cuts in agriculture subsidies and other areas to meet that goal.

But spending would increase to meet key objectives. The budget sets aside $250 billion as a "placeholder" if Obama decides to ask Congress for more money to help the troubled US financial system. No such decision has been made yet, officials said.

It also includes a 10-year, $634-billion reserve fund to help pay for the president's proposed healthcare reforms.

 

Another official said the budget included hundreds of billions of dollars in revenues, starting in 2012 and going over many years, from a greenhouse gas emissions trading system, one of Obama's key proposals to fight global warming.

Officials planned a high profile roll-out of the 134-page budget outline on Thursday. A more detailed version will come out in mid or late April.

The budget, for the fiscal year that begins on Oct. 1, 2009, requires passage by Congress to take effect.

Obama's $1.75 trillion budget deficit forecast for this year reflects shortfalls accumulated under Bush as well as new spending proposals under the $787 economic stimulus package that the Democratic president recently signed.

His stimulus package and other efforts to revitalize the economy have done little to cheer Wall Street. US stocks prices hit 12-year lows this week.

The United States has experienced 14 months of recession triggered by a financial crisis that has spread across the world.

Obama says a big increase in government spending is crucial to avoid economic catastrophe.

A big challenge for Obama will be selling the budget to lawmakers, some of whom may resist cuts to such programs as farm subsidies that are popular in Congress.

"There's no doubt that there are going to be things that we do that are going to create some political heartburn," one official said. "But our fundamental mission is restore the health of the economy, put the budget on a better (footing) moving forward."

Record Borrowing

The budget reflects the delicate balance Obama must strike between making sure there is enough money to fix the economy while avoiding excessive pressure on long-term finances.

Some experts fear that if the record pace of government borrowing to finance debt continues, it could affect financial markets by raising interest rates for borrowers, which would slow economic growth.

Obama will aim to bring the deficit down by 2013 to $533 billion, or 3 percent of GDP.

For the Investor:

• Pros Say: European Banks STILL Not Attractive
• Market Tips: Don’t Be Tempted, Stick to Safe Havens

  Tax increases on wealthier Americans and a troop drawdown from Iraq will curb the shortfall, the budget will say.

  The budget projects costs of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars totaling just over $140 billion this year and $130 billion in the 2010 fiscal year.

  Annual costs will drop after that to $50 billion annually. Washington spent about $190 billion on the wars in 2008.

  Obama looks likely to order US combat troops to withdraw from Iraq over about 18 months, according to US officials.

  At the same time, he is ramping up the US military effort in Afghanistan. Officials were eager to point out Obama's plans for cuts.

  The budget would phase out government payments to crop producers making more than $500,000 -- saving $9.8 billion over 10 years -- and eliminate subsidies for cotton storage, saving an additional $570 million over the same period.

  But the proposals do not lose sight of Obama's political and economic goals.

  In a major address to Congress on Tuesday night, Obama signaled he has no intention of delaying his campaign promise of expanding healthcare to the 46 million people who are uninsured in the United States, a goal that may prove tough amid eye-popping deficits.

  The United States spends more on healthcare than any other country, but its system is widely considered inefficient and it lags many other nations in key quality measures.

  Past efforts to make major healthcare changes have died in Congress.

  Obama, who is eager to show he is mindful of the need to tackle the burgeoning deficits, held a "Fiscal Responsibility Summit" on Monday bringing together lawmakers and budget experts to discuss the long-term budget challenges.

  In an open letter to Obama, experts at the Brookings Institution, the Washington think tank, warned that a soaring national debt would have consequences.

  "We will have to borrow money in domestic and international capital markets to finance this debt, and without a serious commitment to long-term fiscal restraint, lenders will eventually question the nation's fiscal credibility," they wrote.

blog.markt-daten.de/2009/02/24/...ervertrauen-liegt-darnieder/

zum Vergleich: Consumer Sentiment der Uni Michigan

globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/...-frog-plan-to.html

oder so ähnlich...

Den 125,1 Yen Stein hat es nun zerbröselt und weil ich damit gerechnet habe EUR/JPY Longs aufgestockt

Nochmal kurz zu deinen Charts. ME ist es nicht richtig, in sehr langfrisitigen Charts die Charttechnik zu analysieren, Trends einzuzeichnen, etc.

Zur Erläuterung: Ich war früher ein absoluter Fundi und hielt die Charttechnik für Humbug. Aber Jahre der Erfahrung haben mich die CT sehr schätzen gelehrt, so dass ich heute zu einem Großteil mit ihr arbeite.

Doch sollte man die Stärken und Schwächen dieser Herangehensweise kennen, die da lautet: Sie funktioniert umso besser, je kurzfristiger der Analysezeitraum ist. Im Minutenbereich funktioniert alleine die CT, im Dekandenbereich alleine die Fundamentalanalyse. Grund ist, dass Marktpsychologie, Preismuster, Volumen, etc. im Dekandenbreich keine Rolle mehr spielen, da das Gedächtnis der Anleger nicht so lange hält, Inflation mit reinspielt und natürlich die Änderung der allgemeinen Wirtschafts- und Politiklage.

Daher: Deine Langsfristcharts zeigen vielleicht die Message, die du hier verkünden willst (auch das ist für mich fraglich), aber sie liefern keine Prognose für die nahe und ferne Zukunft. Sie sind daher im Prinzip unbrauchbar. An deinem Bild oben belegt: Was nützen Trendlinien, wenn sie keiner ausser dir sieht (erkennbar daran, dass es beim Durchbruch keine Gegenwehr gab)? Was nützen MACD-Linien, die die Lage vor 10-20 Jahren zeigen? Was nützen Goldratios wenn Gold zur Zeit - anders als vor 10 Jahren - psychologisch gepusht wird und daher nichts mit der Infaltion zu tun hat (die es ja zur Zeit nicht gibt)?

Jobless Claims Rise 36,000 to 667,000;  Durable Goods Orders Fall More Than Expected Down 5.2%

Da muss sich der DOW aber anstrengen.

Gruß

Permanent

GM fährt 30,9 Milliarden Dollar Verlust ein 

26.02.2009, 13:32 Uhr

http://www.ariva.de/...sition_erhoeht_t283343?pnr=5478699#jump5478699

SL ist nun bei 2,70 €.

Ich glaube an den Erfolg der Reflationierung.

Gruß

Permanent

Aus diesem Grund glaube ich an den Erfolg der Reflationierung:
http://www.ariva.de/...on_des_Zinsesz_t283343?pnr=5492889#jump5492889
Editor hat mein Word Doc. leider ein wenig zerlegt.

Ein Misserfolg würde ins Chaos führen. Dann müssten wir noch länger auf die besseren Tage warten.

Permanent

http://www.handelsblatt.com/video/made-in-germany/...tz-krise;2174745

Sales of newly built U.S. single-family homes slumped to a record low in January, while prices fell to their weakest level in five years, according to a government report on Thursday that highlighted the continued distress in the housing market.

The Commerce Department said sales plunged 10.2 percent to a 309,000 annual pace, the lowest on records dating back to 1963, from an upwardly revised 344,000 in December.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast sales at a 330,000 rate in January.

The median sales price in January tumbled 13.5 percent to $201,100 from a year earlier, the lowest level since December 2003, the department said.

The percentage decrease was the largest since July 1970. The median marks the half-way point, with half of all houses sold above that level and half below.

 

The inventory of homes available for sale in January was at 342,000, #0000ff">(Das Inventar sinkt in absoluten Termen, ein erster Hoffungsschimmer, immerhin wächst die Bevölkerung mit einer Jahresrate von einem Prozent. Das bedeutet jährlich ca. 3 Millionen Neubürger die ein Haus benötigen, dazu kommt die Replazierung.) the lowest in over five years. However, because of the weak January sales pace, the supply of homes available for sale is now at 13.3 month's worth, a record high.

The report comes a day after the National Association of Realtors said sales of existing homes took an unexpected plunge from December to January, falling to the lowest level in nearly 12 years as pessimism about the economy grew and buyers waited to see how the new government would help revive the US housing market.

_____________________________________