super!! Jetzt knacken wir die 13000 im Dow und die 7500 im DAX, da bin ich mir gaaaanz sicher;---))
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Der USA Bären-Thread
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...überlesen haben, wiederhole ichs hier:
[meines Erachtens, wird DIES den eigentlichen Crash auslösen, sobald die ersten Probleme auftauchen, also bald...]
"Laut meinem Gewährsmann bei Merrill Lynch beträgt das seit 2003 im COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE SEKTOR akkummulierte Kreditvolumen etwa das Zwölf- bis Fünfzehnfache dessen im HOUSING SEKTOR.
Die Finanzierung von Großprojekten erfolgte progressiv über Hedgefonds mit gehebelten Finanzprodukten. Diese Problematik ist dem REAL ESTATE HOLDING & DEVELOPMENT INDEX schon seit Juli d.J. "bewusst". Dessen Preiskurve crasht seither munter vor sich hin. "
Intraday Reversal war zwar nicht, aber immerhin blieb der Dow zum Schluß recht stabil. Der Schein bleibt bis morgen drin, war eh nicht als Daytrading gedacht. Mal sehen, was der Dax draus macht.
Sorry, aber auch bei uns Bären wachsen die Bäume nicht in den Himmel. Ein Reversal wird von Tag zu Tag wahrscheinlicher.
Sorry, aber auch bei uns Bären wachsen die Bäume nicht in den Himmel. Ein Reversal wird von Tag zu Tag wahrscheinlicher.
also ich hatte es nicht überlesen und fand es sehr interessant.
Aber an dieser Stelle erst mal ein dickes Lob an metro, dessen selbstloser Einsatz für die armen geschundene Bären uns diesen wirklich schönen Downmove beschert hat.
metro ich glaube für uns alle sprechen zu können, wenn ich Dir hiermit Danke sage;-)
Aber an dieser Stelle erst mal ein dickes Lob an metro, dessen selbstloser Einsatz für die armen geschundene Bären uns diesen wirklich schönen Downmove beschert hat.
metro ich glaube für uns alle sprechen zu können, wenn ich Dir hiermit Danke sage;-)
Bei der Kälte sollte man wohl nicht ohne Shorts ins Bett. ;-)
der Name ist schon richtig gewählt, für 'ne Lokalrunde würde es wahrscheinlich momentan auch nicht langen.
http://www.ariva.de/Was_nun_kommt_ist_die_groesste_Rallye_t299942
http://www.ariva.de/Was_nun_kommt_ist_die_groesste_Rallye_t299942
Bei der Affenkälte zieh ich lieber lange Unterhosen an. Aber keine Sorge, ich werde nicht zum Bullen. Ist lediglich die Konsequenz aus dem Jucken im großen Zeh. Es kann aber auch nur mein Hühnerauge sein.
Also doch, nachbörslich berichtet HP.
Interessanter wäre jedoch zu wissen, welchen Ausblick sie liefern? Hat da schon jemand was?
H-P reports 28% quarterly profit increase
By Rex Crum Last Update: 4:06 PM ET Nov 19, 2007
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Hewlett-Packard Co. on Monday reported a fiscal fourth-quarter profit of $2.2 billion, or 81 cents a share, on revenue of $28.3 billion. During the same period a year ago, H-P earned $1.7 billion, or 60 cents a share, on $24.6 billion in sales. Excluding charges and one-time items, H-P would have earned $2.3 billion, or 86 cents a share. By that measure H-P beat the estimates of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial, who forecast H-P to earn 82 cents a share on $27.4 billion in sales. For its fiscal first-quarter, H-P forecast a profit of 80 cents a share on revenue between $27.4 billion and $27.5 billion.
Weiß der teufel warum:
For the first quarter, the company expects non-GAAP earnings of 80 cents a share on revenue of between $27.4 billion and $27.5 billion.
The current average analysts' view is for earnings of 77 cents a share in the January period.
For fiscal 2008, the Dow component sees non-GAAP earnings of $3.32 to $3.37 a share on revenue of $111.5 billion.
Wall Street's consensus estimate is for earnings of $3.27 a share for fiscal 2008 on revenue of $109.55 billion.
For the first quarter, the company expects non-GAAP earnings of 80 cents a share on revenue of between $27.4 billion and $27.5 billion.
The current average analysts' view is for earnings of 77 cents a share in the January period.
For fiscal 2008, the Dow component sees non-GAAP earnings of $3.32 to $3.37 a share on revenue of $111.5 billion.
Wall Street's consensus estimate is for earnings of $3.27 a share for fiscal 2008 on revenue of $109.55 billion.
so ganz ohne Medienrummel sacken unsere alten Freunde immer weiter ins finanzielle Nirvana:
Countrywide heute auf Fünfjahrestief: $10.57 -12.4%
Northern Rock: 1,48Eur -21%
nicht im Nirvana, aber auch nicht gerade toll
Citigroup; $32 -6%
Countrywide heute auf Fünfjahrestief: $10.57 -12.4%
Northern Rock: 1,48Eur -21%
nicht im Nirvana, aber auch nicht gerade toll
Citigroup; $32 -6%
Extended Trading - After Hours Stock Quotes
HPQ
After Hours Last: $ 49.73
After Hours High: $ 50.74
After Hours Low: $ 48.50
After Hours Volume: 2,348,400
na so prall sieht das nicht aus.
HPQ
After Hours Last: $ 49.73
After Hours High: $ 50.74
After Hours Low: $ 48.50
After Hours Volume: 2,348,400
na so prall sieht das nicht aus.
Da die Zinssenkungs-Chöre momentan wieder stark anschwellen, entnehme ich dazu gerade mal einen interessanten historischen Fakt als von der Hussmann-Seite:
As Jim Stack of Investech recently noted, a market drop of even the recent -7.1% following a third discount rate cut has happened only 3 times in the past 80 years: February 1930, July 1982, and March 2001. In each case, the economy was already in recession (or worse). “Those are not the kind of odds that make one feel comfortable in today's uncharted waters.” I should add that while the 1982 instance was different than the others (in that it was followed by very strong market returns), this is because the S&P 500 price/peak earnings multiple in July 1982 was already less than 7. These periods are also interesting for another reason: if you look at what happened to S&P 500 earnings over the following year, you'll find that earnings plunged in each instance. 1930: -39.4%, 1982: -15.9%, 2001: -49.8%.
Den kompletten Weekly Market Comment „Critical Point“ gibt’s hier
www.hussmanfunds.net/wmc/wmc071119.htm
As Jim Stack of Investech recently noted, a market drop of even the recent -7.1% following a third discount rate cut has happened only 3 times in the past 80 years: February 1930, July 1982, and March 2001. In each case, the economy was already in recession (or worse). “Those are not the kind of odds that make one feel comfortable in today's uncharted waters.” I should add that while the 1982 instance was different than the others (in that it was followed by very strong market returns), this is because the S&P 500 price/peak earnings multiple in July 1982 was already less than 7. These periods are also interesting for another reason: if you look at what happened to S&P 500 earnings over the following year, you'll find that earnings plunged in each instance. 1930: -39.4%, 1982: -15.9%, 2001: -49.8%.
Den kompletten Weekly Market Comment „Critical Point“ gibt’s hier
www.hussmanfunds.net/wmc/wmc071119.htm
money.cnn.com/data/afterhours/widelyheld/
Die allermeisten sind im grünen Bereich. Anscheinend haben die HP-Zahlen einen positiven Eindruck hinterlassen. HP + 1,5%.
Ich will ja nicht bullish werden, aber HP ist nun mal der größte Comuputerhersteller der Welt. Möglicherweise kann der positive Ausblick den Markt doch kurzfristig drehen.
Außerbörslich iast allerdings nicht sehr aussagekräftig, daher obacht.
Die allermeisten sind im grünen Bereich. Anscheinend haben die HP-Zahlen einen positiven Eindruck hinterlassen. HP + 1,5%.
Ich will ja nicht bullish werden, aber HP ist nun mal der größte Comuputerhersteller der Welt. Möglicherweise kann der positive Ausblick den Markt doch kurzfristig drehen.
Außerbörslich iast allerdings nicht sehr aussagekräftig, daher obacht.
Habe vor ner Stunde eine Artikel bei Spiegel Online gelesen über einen amerikanischen Investmentbanker, der in seiner Freizeit zwei sehr schöne Country-Stücke über die derzeitige ... nun ja ... missliche Lage am Finanzmarkt gemacht hat ("H-E-D-G-E" und "In the Hamptons"). Seeehhhr nett, finde ich. Zu finden bei You Tube.
Mal bei You Tube nach "Merle Hazard" suchen, dann ist man direkt da. Viel Spaß!
Der DJ US FINANCIAL SERVICES COMPOSITE INDEX ($DJUSFV) hat heute ein neues EOD-Verlaufstief seit Oktober markiert. Seit Oktober minus 19,4 %, nach einer kurzen Up-Korrektur minus 10,4 % in den letzten vier Handelstagen.
Der DJ US MORTGAGE FINANCE INDEX crasht seit Oktober unverändert unterhalb MA 10! (Chart im Anhang):
FNM: minus 7,6 %
FRE: minus 7,9 %
CFC (größte Hypothekenbank): minus 12,4 %
Ergänzend noch ein paar "Schmankerln":
ABK: minus 7 %
MBI: minus 7,3 %
WM (Washington Mutual): minus 7,3 %
ETFC (größte Internet-Bank): minus 13,4 %
GM: minus 8,4 %
SHLD (Einzelhandelsgigant Sears Holding): minus 5,2 %
Der DJ US MORTGAGE FINANCE INDEX crasht seit Oktober unverändert unterhalb MA 10! (Chart im Anhang):
FNM: minus 7,6 %
FRE: minus 7,9 %
CFC (größte Hypothekenbank): minus 12,4 %
Ergänzend noch ein paar "Schmankerln":
ABK: minus 7 %
MBI: minus 7,3 %
WM (Washington Mutual): minus 7,3 %
ETFC (größte Internet-Bank): minus 13,4 %
GM: minus 8,4 %
SHLD (Einzelhandelsgigant Sears Holding): minus 5,2 %
(Verkleinert auf 80%) 
Unglaublicher Chart, v.a. wenn man bedenkt, dass das ein INDEX ist.
Und an dieser Stelle von mir vielen Dank für das regelmäßige Einstellen der Charts!
als Schaubild:
Libuda: Niemand kommt an Christus vorbei, außer Bernanke!
Libuda: Niemand kommt an Christus vorbei, außer Bernanke!
CFC fiel heute um 12,43 %, Fannie Mae brach um über 7 % ein.
Welcome to reality.
Zyniker können feststellen: Wenn Perma-Bären wie Doug Kass "für einen Trade" long gehen (siehe meine früheren Postings), dann beginnen die Indizes WIRKLICH ernsthaft zu fallen.
Welcome to reality.
Zyniker können feststellen: Wenn Perma-Bären wie Doug Kass "für einen Trade" long gehen (siehe meine früheren Postings), dann beginnen die Indizes WIRKLICH ernsthaft zu fallen.
(Verkleinert auf 83%)
Die Countrywide-Aktie profitierte im September von dem Gerücht, Value-Investor Warren Buffett wolle einsteigen.
Der hat sich jedoch bereits vor einem Monat - klugerweise - zurückgezogen. Außerdem ist er skeptisch bezüglich des geplanten Auffang-Fonds für gestrauchelte Hypo-Leiher.
Countrywide Financial drops after Buffett denies interest
By Josh P. Hamilton
Bloomberg News
Monday, October 22, 2007
NEW YORK: Shares of Countrywide Financial fell to a four-and-a-half year low after the billionaire Warren Buffett said that he "never came close" to buying shares of the biggest U.S. mortgage lender.
Countrywide dropped $1.28, or 7.8 percent, to $15.23 [aktuell: 10,57 Dollar, A.L.] in trading Friday on the New York Stock Exchange. That was the lowest close since April 2003 for the company, based in Calabasas, California. Investors had speculated that Berkshire Hathaway might buy a stake.
The lender has lost almost two-thirds of its market value amid the worst U.S. housing slump in 16 years, which left Countrywide short of cash in August. Buffett said last week on Fox Business Network that he never bought any Countrywide stock, and that the company lacked a comprehensive recovery plan that might have attracted him.
"The trends are poor and nobody sees a turn," said Thane Bublitz, an analyst at Thrivent Financial for Lutherans, which owns Countrywide shares.
The Securities and Exchange Commission opened an informal inquiry into stock sales by Angelo Mozilo, the Countrywide chief executive, that were raised in a letter the North Carolina state treasurer, Richard Moore, sent to the Securities and Exchange Commission last week, according to a person with direct knowledge of the matter. The agency began the inquiry before getting the letter, the person said.
Mozilo repeatedly modified automated stock-trading programs to accelerate sales of his Countrywide shares before the price fell this year, avoiding losses, Moore wrote in the Oct. 8 letter.
Last week, Countrywide said it would take a pretax restructuring charge of as much as $150 million to cut operations and as many as 12,000 jobs because of slower lending. About $57 million of the expense will be booked in the third quarter, with the remainder coming in the fourth.
Buffett also said he was skeptical about the U.S. Treasury's plan to create an $80 billion fund to buy distressed assets from structured investment vehicles linked to home lending.
Der hat sich jedoch bereits vor einem Monat - klugerweise - zurückgezogen. Außerdem ist er skeptisch bezüglich des geplanten Auffang-Fonds für gestrauchelte Hypo-Leiher.
Countrywide Financial drops after Buffett denies interest
By Josh P. Hamilton
Bloomberg News
Monday, October 22, 2007
NEW YORK: Shares of Countrywide Financial fell to a four-and-a-half year low after the billionaire Warren Buffett said that he "never came close" to buying shares of the biggest U.S. mortgage lender.
Countrywide dropped $1.28, or 7.8 percent, to $15.23 [aktuell: 10,57 Dollar, A.L.] in trading Friday on the New York Stock Exchange. That was the lowest close since April 2003 for the company, based in Calabasas, California. Investors had speculated that Berkshire Hathaway might buy a stake.
The lender has lost almost two-thirds of its market value amid the worst U.S. housing slump in 16 years, which left Countrywide short of cash in August. Buffett said last week on Fox Business Network that he never bought any Countrywide stock, and that the company lacked a comprehensive recovery plan that might have attracted him.
"The trends are poor and nobody sees a turn," said Thane Bublitz, an analyst at Thrivent Financial for Lutherans, which owns Countrywide shares.
The Securities and Exchange Commission opened an informal inquiry into stock sales by Angelo Mozilo, the Countrywide chief executive, that were raised in a letter the North Carolina state treasurer, Richard Moore, sent to the Securities and Exchange Commission last week, according to a person with direct knowledge of the matter. The agency began the inquiry before getting the letter, the person said.
Mozilo repeatedly modified automated stock-trading programs to accelerate sales of his Countrywide shares before the price fell this year, avoiding losses, Moore wrote in the Oct. 8 letter.
Last week, Countrywide said it would take a pretax restructuring charge of as much as $150 million to cut operations and as many as 12,000 jobs because of slower lending. About $57 million of the expense will be booked in the third quarter, with the remainder coming in the fourth.
Buffett also said he was skeptical about the U.S. Treasury's plan to create an $80 billion fund to buy distressed assets from structured investment vehicles linked to home lending.
Bei Goldman Sachs weiß offenbar die eine hand nicht, was die andere tut.
Man vergleiche mal hiermit: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/...eferer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fhome%2Fus
Fears that banks could still be feeling the impact of the credit squeeze by Christmas next year drove down shares globally on Monday after Goldman Sachs predicted a further $48bn (€32.7bn) of writedowns by the end of 2008.
The report of its three leading banking analysts – the trio who foreshadowed Merrill Lynch’s writedowns last month – helped prompt large falls on stocks markets on both sides of the Atlantic, taking European indices to their lowest point since August.
Wer weiß, ob nicht GS demnächst mit gigantischen Abschreibungen kommt... von denen man keine Ahnung hatte.
Ich denke, die Puts ließen sich langsam wieder ausbauen:
Nach der Lektüre des nachfolgenden Artikels aus der britischen Financial Times konstatiere ich: Das "große Fressen" unter den diversen "Hai-Arten" hat begonnen. Der "dicke Weiße Hai, GOLDMAN SACHS" sollte allerdings nicht vorschnell "reiche Beute wittern", denn dieser befindet sich nämlich bereits selbst im Visier "böser Jäger", auch "Technische Analysten" genannt. Diese finden nämlich, der "dicke Weiße Hai" zeige deutliche Schwäche: Triple Top mit c-Top EOD unter a-Top EOD. Die Indikatoren von CCI über MACD bis RSI sprechen für diese Annahme.
--------------------------------------------------
Goldman on Citi - SELL before the next $15bn hits
By Helen Thomas, 19 Nov 2007
The golden child of the banking world has turned on the prodigal son. Goldman Sachs - which will not, repeat not, be making significant write-downs - has had it with the cult of the disappearing dollars elsewhere on Wall Street.
The bank's analysts have slapped a sell order on Citigroup, downgraded their estimates, and lowered their target price to $33. US futures fell on the back of the note. Citi were down 2.6 per cent at $33.11 a share in premarket trading.
Citi's down 40 per cent this year, and 28 per cent over the past three months, but the team at Goldman believe that the rudderless banking behemoth has further to fall.
We see four factors driving underperformance: (1) additional write-offs on its remaining $43 billion of CDO exposure, (2) pressure on the firm to shore up Tier-1 capital ratios which may need to come from an equity infusion, asset sales, or a reduction in the dividend, (3) deteriorating consumer credit trends and higher corresponding provisions and charge-offs, and (4) no clear leadership at the firm.
Citi has already said that it will face $8 to $11bn of write-offs on its CDO porfolio in the fourth quarter. Goldman think that will come it at the top end of the range, with a further $4bn to come in the first quarter of next year.
With $84bn in SIVs and $73bn of ABCP facilities providing ample material for additional nasties to emerge, Goldman estimates that the bank could fall nearly $4bn short on its pledge to meet 7.5 per cent Tier-1 capital ratio by the end of the second quarter next year. Citi has indicated that it will not take assets from the SIVs it manages onto its balance sheet, notes Goldman, but the bank has already provided $10bn in emergency funding to the vehicles.
A Tier-1 shortfall would leave Citi facing some rather unpalatable options to boost its ratio from their estimate of 7.2 per cent to the desired level, including cutting its dividend, issuing equity and asset sales. Which of those is preferred will very much depend on who ends up in Chuck Prince's recently vacated hotseat.
The bad news for Citi isn't contained to its CDO and SIV exposure, argues Goldman's William Tanona. With the US consumer under pressure and housing metrics proving increasingly dire, the bank faces pressure across its businesses. And with an absence of leadership and the impetus on getting the firm's risk management under control, Tanona adds that Citi may be unable to move on new opportunities and put its meaty balance sheet to good use as openings appear.
That, suggests Goldman, may prove debilitating into late 2008 or even 2009.
--------------------------------------------------
Goldman on Citi - SELL before the next $15bn hits
By Helen Thomas, 19 Nov 2007
The golden child of the banking world has turned on the prodigal son. Goldman Sachs - which will not, repeat not, be making significant write-downs - has had it with the cult of the disappearing dollars elsewhere on Wall Street.
The bank's analysts have slapped a sell order on Citigroup, downgraded their estimates, and lowered their target price to $33. US futures fell on the back of the note. Citi were down 2.6 per cent at $33.11 a share in premarket trading.
Citi's down 40 per cent this year, and 28 per cent over the past three months, but the team at Goldman believe that the rudderless banking behemoth has further to fall.
We see four factors driving underperformance: (1) additional write-offs on its remaining $43 billion of CDO exposure, (2) pressure on the firm to shore up Tier-1 capital ratios which may need to come from an equity infusion, asset sales, or a reduction in the dividend, (3) deteriorating consumer credit trends and higher corresponding provisions and charge-offs, and (4) no clear leadership at the firm.
Citi has already said that it will face $8 to $11bn of write-offs on its CDO porfolio in the fourth quarter. Goldman think that will come it at the top end of the range, with a further $4bn to come in the first quarter of next year.
With $84bn in SIVs and $73bn of ABCP facilities providing ample material for additional nasties to emerge, Goldman estimates that the bank could fall nearly $4bn short on its pledge to meet 7.5 per cent Tier-1 capital ratio by the end of the second quarter next year. Citi has indicated that it will not take assets from the SIVs it manages onto its balance sheet, notes Goldman, but the bank has already provided $10bn in emergency funding to the vehicles.
A Tier-1 shortfall would leave Citi facing some rather unpalatable options to boost its ratio from their estimate of 7.2 per cent to the desired level, including cutting its dividend, issuing equity and asset sales. Which of those is preferred will very much depend on who ends up in Chuck Prince's recently vacated hotseat.
The bad news for Citi isn't contained to its CDO and SIV exposure, argues Goldman's William Tanona. With the US consumer under pressure and housing metrics proving increasingly dire, the bank faces pressure across its businesses. And with an absence of leadership and the impetus on getting the firm's risk management under control, Tanona adds that Citi may be unable to move on new opportunities and put its meaty balance sheet to good use as openings appear.
That, suggests Goldman, may prove debilitating into late 2008 or even 2009.
(Verkleinert auf 80%)
Was war denn hier los, habe gerade eben mal die "alten" Postings alle nachgelesen. Ihr schreibt so schnell und viel, da wird das am-Ball-bleiben echt schwer! Wenn dass mal nicht für ein Reversal spricht.
@metro: das gehört aber nicht zum guten ton!!! :)
20 Minuten NACH der Rally posten, dass man vor 30 Minuten Calls gekauft hat, macht mich meistens bissle misstrauisch demjenigen gegenüber, ders gepostet hat... humpf..
soweit meine Meinung...
dummdidummdidumm...
:(
| Auch wenn ihr mich steinigt |  metropolis | 19.11.07 20:21   |
| Bin vor 1/2 Stunde long im Dax gegangen. Zur Zeit sieht es sehr gut aus, das Intraday-Reversal scheint sich zu konkretisieren. ME der fällt damit heute der Startschuss für das Zurückschlagen der Bullen. Wie weit das geht? Keine Ahnung. Dauer 2-4 Wochen. |
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