QV ultimate 2012
|Neuester, letzter geles. Beitrag Seiten: Übersicht ... 508 509 511 512 ... Zurück Weiter Antwort einfügen | Börsenforum|
"...There's an election in France that could blow apart the eurozone and a Fed meeting to obsess over. And there's Apple (AAPL -2.46%) to worry about. ... Apple was a big reason for the decline, falling fell for the second week in a row. Its 5.3% decline was its largest since the week of Oct. 17. Apple just won't go away and hide. All Apple, all the time Which brings us to Tuesday, after the close, when Apple is scheduled to report fiscal-second-quarter earnings. There are a couple of reasons why there's a big obsession with Apple's earnings. Apple is the world's most valuable company, with a market capitalization of $524 billion or so. Exxon Mobil, which reports earnings on Thursday, is second with $402 billion. Apple's share price had soared briefly to as high as $644 during the day on April 10. That represented a 59% gain from the end of 2011. But the stock is off more than 11% since. Maybe it's investors taking profits. The stock had become wildly overbought. Its peak close of $636.23 on April 9 was 47% above its 200-day moving average. Normally, a 20% premium to the moving average will trigger some selling. Its relative strength index hit as high as 96 in February; a reading above 70 suggests a stock is overbought. Apple didn't fall below 70 until April 3. The index level was 42 when the stock closed down $14.46 at $572.98. That price is just above its 50-day moving average, a key measure of investor confidence. But maybe the issue is that Apple's numbers won't be as gaudy as in the fourth quarter, when revenue was up 73% and earnings jumped 115%. There were hints of that possibility this past week when Verizon Communications (VZ +1.52%) said iPhone sales fell from 4.2 million units in the October-December quarter to 3.2 million units in the January-March quarter. In any event, analysts expect sales of about 12 million iPhones, Apple's most profitable product, during the entire quarter. That would be down from the last holiday quarter but more than double the sales in the same period last year. But you don't know. The consensus is that earnings will be $9.99 a share, with a high estimate of $11.30, compared with $6.40 a year ago. Revenue is seen jumping 24.7% to $36.6 billion, but the high estimate is $41.1 billion. There are some tensions in iPhone land. A big one is that the phone companies are getting tired of subsidizing Apple. They buy an iPhone at $600 or so from Apple and charge customers $200 or so, with the hope of making the cost back over the course of a two-year contract. These costs are weighing on AT&T (T +0.39%) and Verizon because they're forced to upgrade their networks to handle all the smartphone traffic. Verizon wants to charge $30 if you upgrade. There's one more thought to consider in why Apple shares are falling. Apple has been the single most popular stock among hedge funds. Maybe the funds are having trouble elsewhere and are selling Apple to fix other problems. The rest of the earnings This will be a huge week, with seven Dow companies reporting. The earnings season so far has been quite good. Of 113 S&P 500 companies that have reported results so far, 81% have beaten Street estimates. That's a record, according to Thomson Reuters. In addition, 76% have beaten revenue estimates. The average beat is 9%, also a record. The typical beat since 1994 is 6%. Which means companies are doing better than thought, or analysts were too conservative. Here are the week's key reports: Monday: Homebuilder D.R. Horton (DHI +5.20%), ConocoPhillips, Netflix and Texas Instruments (TXN -0.52%). Netflix has been a wildly up-and-down company for the past year after it tried to change its pricing strategy. Texas Instruments is a supplier to Apple. Its results will hint at what to expect from Apple. Tuesday: Apple (of course), AT&T, 3M (MMM +0.78%), U.S. Steel (X +1.40%) and Baker Hughes (BHI -1.37%). The latter will hint at how bad the natural gas depression is. Wednesday: Boeing, Caterpillar, iron-ore producer Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF -1.54%), Corning (GLW -2.59%), Harley-Davidson, health insurer Wellpoint (WLP +0.08%) and auto renter Zipcar (ZIP +0.37%). Boeing and Caterpillar are true barometers of the health of the global economy. Thursday: Exxon Mobil, Amazon.com, Starbucks, PepsiCo and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A +0.72%). Listen to Exxon Mobil about its comments on the natural-gas market, which has been glutted over the past six months. Amazon.com shares are off 7.5% since March 27 and 23% since peaking on Oct. 14 because of concerns about its heavy spending on infrastructure. And there are concerns that its Kindle business faces heavy competition from Apple's iPad. Friday: Chevron, Ford, Procter & Gamble, Newmont Mining (NEM -1.17%) and Goodyear (GT +0.63%). The Fed and the rest of the economy Can't forget the Fed next week. It has an important two-day meeting where the argument will be if the economy needs more help now in the form of more asset purchases. A decision by the Fed's Federal Open Market Committee is due at 12:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, with a news conference with Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke at 2:15 p.m. The economic data have been weaker than expected, especially housing. Housing starts were down in March from February. So were existing-home sales. But building permits were higher, and a home-sales measure for March that doesn't adjust for seasonal patterns was actually higher than in February. The March unemployment and payrolls report also was weaker, and other reports have suggested that a surge in January and February boosted by an exceptionally mild winter has started to run out of gas. Your best bet on the Fed is that the central bank won't raise rates. The Fed won't offer any new stimulus measures because officials want more data. Outside of the Fed is the French election on Sunday. Socialist candidate Francois Hollande is actually the favorite over Nicolas Sarkozy, but a runoff is likely first. It may have contributed to the market fade late Friday. Hollande wants to raise taxes and renegotiate the European Union's fiscal accords to help economies grow. Elsewhere in the economy: S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for February, due Tuesday. Look for prices to have fallen 3% year over year. New-home sales, due Tuesday. Look for a small increase, Nomura Securities says, perhaps to an annualized 335,000-unit rate. But new-home sales require a gutting of the inventory of foreclosed homes to grow to normal levels of about 800,000. Consumer Confidence for April, due Tuesday from The Conference Board. Rising stock price and a peak in gasoline prices have likely lifted household spirits, to use IHS Global Insight's description. AAA's Daily Fuel Gauge Report says the gas peak occurred March 31-April 2, when the price peaked at $3.925 " money.msn
Am 2.1.2012 startete ich einen Versuch des Daytradings mit der Hälfte meines Cashbetrages. Daxstand grob 6000. Am 17.04. beendete ich den Versuch beim Daxstand von ca. 6770. (Aktien-Depot lief nach den hier schon dargestellten Einstiegs- und Ausstiegsregeln weiter.) Das Ergebnis ist ernüchternd.
Gewinn durch Daytrading:+ 2,1% des zur Verfügung gestanden Kapitals. Zeiteinsatzt im Schnitt 2 Stunden am Tag fünf Tage die Woche. Unser Hausmeister verdient mehr pro Stunde.
Das Aktiendepot: + 13,4% im gleichen Zeitraum. Zeiteinsatz eine Stunde pro Monat. Zugegeben, im langjährigen Schnitt verdiene ich mit den Aktien in gut 3,5 Monaten auch nicht mehr als 2,1%. Aber: Vom Zeitbedarf stehen 40 Stunden gegen eine Stunde.
Den eigentliche Zweck des Daytradings (Kapitalschutz durch Short) konnte ich nicht erreichen. Zu groß war meine Sorge, auf einem Short sitzenzubleiben. Es würde mich natürlich brennend interessieren, welchen Gewinn in dieser Zeit durch unsere Profis, wie Mike, Rembrandt, erste... mit Daytrading erreicht wurde. (BM?)
Auf meinen Entschluss hätte die Antwort allerdings keinen Einfluss. Wenn die Profis prozentual mehr verdient haben sollten, wovon ich ausgehe, dann weiß ich nur, dass meine Kenntisse für den Tagshandel nicht ausreichen.
Also: Schluss für mich mit Tageshandel. Von daher habe ich dem Forum ab jetzt nichts wissenswertes mehr mitzuteilen, freue mich aber, auch weiterhin die vielen interessanten Meinungen lesen zu dürfen.
PS.: Beim Stand von 6560 habe ich ein dickes Dax-Paket gekauft. Ziel: 7360, SL auf 6580.
Viel Erfolg allen
EU sowie das Verbrauchervertrauen in den USA jeweils am Dienstag dürften eine nicht unerhebliche Rolle für den Euro, Dax und Dow spielen.Ich erwarte eher schlechte Daten. Sollte dieses Szenario zutreffen, dürfte dies einen Abverkauf nachsichziehen.