Der positive Coba-Bericht nach dem Interwiew mit Linzbach. Ich gönne und wünsche allen, dass er Recht hat. Frühindikatoren hierzu entnehmen wir den Postings von Schmodo.
Profitability rebound to send a message
Sales in Q3 are likely to increase 15% year over
year to €728m helped by additional impetus from the Drupa trade fair in Q1 and a favourable
comparison base. We expect EBIT before special items to jump from €2m to €30m driven by
scale economies, a more profitable product mix and cost savings. This implies a bold
improvement in underlying margins with 4.1% after 0.3% in Q3 2011 and 0.1% in Q2. Note
that timing of financial one-offs and volatile tax leaves tangible risk to our reported estimates.
GIS conference conversation reassuring
We had a personal conversation with CEO Dr
Linzbach at our German Investment Seminar. As previously, management sees the printing
equipment market to have bottomed and reiterates confidence in achieving a 2013/14 EBIT
ex special items of €120m (after IAS 19) and a net profit. As a new theme it was also
suggested that by accounts receivable management (i.e. rising prepayments on equipment
sales) Heidelberger is seeking to further optimise its working capital going forward.
Confidence to increase further
We expect the coming two quarters to benefit from fewer
one-off items, scale economies on a shift of sales into H2 of c. €300m, the sales mix now
tilting towards equipment with longer lead times which is more profitable, and first
restructuring benefits aimed at €60m coming to light. Once our claim of a strong rebound in
operating margins is being substantiated, we expect confidence to further increase. We
reiterate Buy with a €2.0 target price (based on a DCF approach).
Key Data
Year-end Mar 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13E 2013/14E 2014/15E CAGR 2011-14E
Sales rep. (€ m) 2,306 2,629 2,596 2,734 2,729 2,796 2.5 %
EBITDA adj. (€ m) (24.8) 104 89.6 110 157 182 26.7 %
EBITA adj. (€ m) (129) 3.9 2.5 21.5 69.1 92.0 232.0 %
EBITA margin (5.6%) 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% 2.5% 3.3%
EBITA rep. (€ m) (159) 6.2 (140) (18.5) 69.1 92.0
FCF pre-div (€ m) (62.4) 74.9 9.8 (101) 6.1 48.5 70.3 %
FCF yield (14.9%) 9.5% 2.2% (27.1%) 1.6% 13.1%
EPS rep. (€) (2.94) (0.83) (0.98) (0.49) 0.06 0.18 n.a.
EPS adj. (€) (2.65) (0.86) (0.39) (0.32) 0.06 0.18 n.a.
DPS (€) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 n.a.
EV/Sales (x) 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
EV/EBITA (x) n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. 16.5 12.0
P/E (x) n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. 25.6 8.7
Div yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Net debt (€ m) 920 468 569 794 802 764
Net debt/EBITDA (x) (37.1) 4.5 6.4 7.2 5.1 4.2
Source: Company, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets