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Technische Analyse ist allgemein akzeptiert als Erfolg versprechende Trading-Methode. In letzter Zeit gingen aber viele Trader, die Breaks und Unterstützungen kauften oder an Widerständen verkauften, baden.
Grund sind professionelle Computer-Programme (die auch Käufe/Verkäufe tätigen können): Große Institutionen (Fonds) haben die Computer so programmiert, dass Leute, die nach anerkannten TA-Regeln vorgehen, regelmäßig ins Bockshorn gejagt werden (unten Punkt 3).
Technical Analysis
Four Lessons From a Tough Tape
By Alan Farley
TheStreet.com
8/17/2006 2:02 PM EDT
To paraphrase an old expression, traders who forget the past are destined to repeat it. This is especially true after this week's vertical rally. The harsh lessons of the last few months need to be hardwired into our brains so that we act smarter and perform better the next time the market loses its footing. Realistically, whatever happens as we head into the fourth quarter is unlikely to bring absolute clarity to our trading lives. And whether this is the bottom or not might be the least of our problems. Most of us have to a lot of healing work to do with our profit and loss statements before Dec. 31 rolls around.
Is this really the long-awaited recovery? September and October are rarely kind to the financial markets, especially in down years. And this would be an odd time for the markets to take a final stand. August is the most illiquid month of the year, when big players are working on their tans instead of their trading accounts. So the jury is still out. In the meantime, enjoy the rally, but take the time to ponder the harsh trading lessons that have been taught so far this year. To help you along, here are four nuggets of wisdom I've taken away from the 2006 selloff. 1. Making money requires superb timing and a very strong stomach. Don't believe in the magic moment when the market suddenly finds its legs and charges back to new highs. Hopefully we're headed into a more benign environment, but don't count on it. We could be entering a purgatory phase that denies hardcore trend followers for months or years to come. Hope in the bull market is a one-way ticket to washout city in these turbulent times. No, those broken stocks in your portfolio probably won't bail you out, regardless of what's happened this week. The market just isn't that simple anymore. In other words, we'll have to earn every penny and fight like dogs to keep any gains. 2. Holding period determines profits and losses. Were you getting burned on intraday plays this summer or the core positions you carried around for weeks at a time? Several times I was forced to stop trading a specific time frame that was hurting me and reassign the majority of my resources into the few plays that were performing well in the volatile tape. Indeed, the summer market has caused a lot of sleepless nights, even among professionals who have weathered tougher times in the past. Playing a twitchy seller's market can throw off your rhythm and force a lot of revenge trading, especially on days when things aren't going your way. I know that from personal experience. Not sure if your timing is bad? Step forward to claim your booby prize if you held off buying this week until Wednesday afternoon because you didn't believe the vertical rally. Did you fail to notice that buying high and trying to sell higher has been a loser's game all summer long? That probably didn't change just because the market decided to go up on Tuesday and Wednesday. 3. The profitable traders are making their money through a sense of feel. Instincts have guided profitability this summer, rather than textbook technical analysis. In fact, TA may be dangerous to your financial health in this twisted environment. The reason: Institutional computer programs are actively trapping retail traders by turning classic breakout and breakdown strategies upside-down. Making money when predators are on the prowl demands more patience than knowledge. A single strategy has worked well in this endless barrage of contrary institutional capital: Standing aside for days on end until the market reveals its hand, and then taking the first available exit after turning a profit. 4. Pick your fights carefully and let others put their money at risk first. This is especially true when prices reach or violate key support and resistance levels. There was a time when it made perfect sense to be the first one into the pool, but no longer. These uncertain times require a far more cautious approach because a single error can undo weeks of progress. Here's a trade I made this week that demanded absolute patience. Boeing (BA) got talked up for weeks but the stock kept falling until it broke the 200-day moving average. I established a line in the sand that price needed to cross before it issued a buy signal. This was a relatively simple process; I just visualized where the bears would fail. 
Note the four-bars below the 200-day moving average. All this stock had to do in order to hit the recovery trail was jump back above the resistance line at $77.20. My only job was to watch it closely and sit on my hands until the buy signal went off, which it did Wednesday morning. I then picked up the stock at $77.20 and rode the daylong rally. We found out this summer that holding on to profits is much harder than making them in the first place. You know what? That's not likely to change anytime soon. So enjoy this summer uptrend, but take the time to learn the valuable lessons of this exceptionally tough tape.
#6666cc; HEIGHT: 1px" width="100%" color=#6666cc noShade>At the time of publication, Farley had no positions in the stock mentioned, although holdings can change at any time. Alan Farley is a professional trader and author of The Master Swing Trader. Farley also runs a Web site called HardRightEdge.com, an online resource for trading education, technical analysis and short-term investment strategies.
Note the four-bars below the 200-day moving average. All this stock had to do in order to hit the recovery trail was jump back above the resistance line at $77.20. My only job was to watch it closely and sit on my hands until the buy signal went off, which it did Wednesday morning. I then picked up the stock at $77.20 and rode the daylong rally. We found out this summer that holding on to profits is much harder than making them in the first place. You know what? That's not likely to change anytime soon. So enjoy this summer uptrend, but take the time to learn the valuable lessons of this exceptionally tough tape. #6666cc; HEIGHT: 1px" width="100%" color=#6666cc noShade>At the time of publication, Farley had no positions in the stock mentioned, although holdings can change at any time. Alan Farley is a professional trader and author of The Master Swing Trader. Farley also runs a Web site called HardRightEdge.com, an online resource for trading education, technical analysis and short-term investment strategies.
