Nachdem die Kniereflex-Rallye, die Marcin in # 25 prophezeit hatte, gekommen ist (offenbar in Vorwegnahme der Fed, von der "verbale Hilfe" erwartet wird), will er nun Teil 2 seines Aktionsplans umsetzen und in die (zweifelhafte) Stärke hinein Positionen abbauen.
Der Markt ist schon wahnwitzig mit seinen 300 Punkte-Moves - abwechselnd nach oben und nach unten. Auf die Fed-Entscheidung hin könnte noch ein weiterer Move nach oben folgen, der dann vermutlich ein gutes Short-Setup abgibt.
Ein Grund für die Rallye ist, dass die Large Specs eine extrem große Short-Position in den ES (E-mini-Futures auf SP-500) aufgebaut haben bzw. hatten.
Robert Marcin
Use Relief Rally8/6/2007 4:24 PM EDT
The relief rally I expected this morning is in full swing.
My guess is that it can continue for another day or two, depending on the Fed statement.
It was a sharp reversal today, so much so that I think it proves that investors still really want to be long. This should not be present at the actual bottom. Or it could be the negativity bubble.
Either way, the sharpest rallies occur in declining trend markets. I would use the recovery to reposition my portfolio in cheap, large cap stocks which already taken big hits and away from small/mid cap and momentum shares.
If we get a retest or new low, the mo-mo wil go the most.
Tony Crescenzi
Large Spec Short in E-Minis8/6/2007 3:57 PM EDT
Helping the equity market back from the brink is probably the large short base that exists in the
S&P 500 E-Mini contracts.
New data released late Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission indicate that large speculators increased their collective net short position by about 40k contracts to 337,776 contracts as of last Tuesday, just 10k contracts below the record high of 347,208 contracts set in the week ended April 3.
This large short base gives more juice, so to speak, to recoveries in the market.
Buying Looks Like Some Pre-Fed Optimism
By Rev Shark
Street.com Contributor
8/6/2007 4:24 PM EDT
Kommentar zum heutigen Marktschluss
Yet another huge closing-hour move is keeping market players off balance. We have now had a series of unusually big alternating ups and downs over the last seven days. If you aren't changing direction every day, you are very likely to be feeling some whiplash.
What does it tell us when, after last week's extremely poor action, the DJIA is up huge primarily due to a bounce in financials but overall market breadth is close to flat?
The answer is that it tells us that we probably have an unsustainable dead-cat bounce and that we better not be overly optimistic about this continuing. The internal action today undermines the strong showing of the indices.
Financials simply sold off so hard that they were ripe for a big reflexive bounce, driven to a great extent by aggressive short-term traders. This action isn't a proclamation that the worst is over. It is simply some opportunistic short term trading.
Keep in mind that we have the FOMC interest rate decision tomorrow afternoon. I suspect some of the buying today is due to hope that the Fed will have some calming words for the market. That is going to set the stage for some more volatility when the news hits.
I feel quite strongly that this market has more downside to come, but I'm trying not to get caught leaning the wrong way in these quick swings. That means staying with high levels of cash and very short-term trades.
There is no easy way to game this market right now, so don't feel frustrated. Unless you went from 100% short to 100% long in the course of a day, you were on the wrong side of this market at some point.
Zurück
