Original-Research: Mynaric AG - von GBC AG
Einstufung von GBC AG zu Mynaric AG
Unternehmen: Mynaric AG ISIN: DE000A0JCY11
Anlass der Studie: Research report (note) Empfehlung: Buy Kursziel: 108.50 EUR Letzte Ratingänderung: Analyst: Marcel Goldmann, Cosmin Filker
The market for laser-based communication networks offers enormous growth potential and is starting to gain momentum; Series production of ground stations has started; Cooperation with CEA-Leti has enabled further technological advances in the field of laser communications technology; Target price: €108.50; Rating: Buy
Mynaric has specialised in the development, production and sale of laser communications products for use in laser-supported communications networks in the aerospace sector. This business segment is still a young, less developed market; however, in our opinion, it is clearly beginning to pick up speed. For this segment, we are expecting very dynamic market growth and believe that over the long term, market volume in the double-digit billions range will be possible.
In the past, Mynaric has mainly concentrated on the development of preseries products, so as to use them with potential customers for testing and demonstration purposes. However, the main focus has changed to the transition from product development to series production. In this context, the company began series production of laser-based ground stations in November 2018. The company intends to transition further product groups to series production in the future.
As a result of technological cooperation with the renowned Leti CEA Tech Research Institute entered into in 2018, Mynaric has access to technologies that will enable further market-moving improvements to the company's laser communications products. As a result, Mynaric's laser products are expected to achieve significant performance improvements in the near future. Additionally, the cost structure and range of applications are also expected to improve.
In November 2018, Mynaric announced the opening of an office in Shanghai (China) in order to take advantage of the booming Asian aerospace market. This has enabled the company to further pursue its aim of internationalisation and to establish itself as a global player.
In addition, Mynaric has continued to further expand its previous product portfolio in the current financial year. After previously mainly focusing on developments in the air sector, the company began to develop terminals for the space sector in 2016. According to the company, the development of the space laser terminal is proceeding according to plan and is intended for completion at the beginning of 2019, so that the first devices can be delivered in the same year for use on satellites.
The company also announced in June 2018 that it had started developing laser terminals for use in precision agriculture. Specifically, it intends to develop a new lightweight laser terminal for use in compact drones for precision agriculture applications. In our opinion, this strategic step, which follows the precision agriculture market trend, should open up additional potential business. There is also further economic potential in other sectors (drone industries) that also manufacture and market drones (e.g. the security industry).
Mynaric also announced in November 2018 that it had received an order from UK company ArQit to carry out a study to develop a global high-security communications system. Laser communication is a core component of this study in terms of guaranteeing the highest possible IT security (cybersecurity). After successfully completing the study, the company could become the exclusive supplier of hardware for laser communications solutions.
Overall, Mynaric has established a good base from which to profit significantly from the expected dynamic growth in the laser-based communications networks market. We have revised our short and medium-term forecasts to take into account a slower pace of growth than initially expected. However, our long-term forecasts remain valid. For the current financial year 2018, we are now expecting total output of €9.20m and EBITDA of -€4.25m. In the following year 2019, the previously mentioned series production should result in a rapid growth in total output to €22.60m. In parallel, operating earnings should improve significantly to -€2.37m. For the subsequent financial years, we expect a strong rise in operating results (EBITDA) based on an expected dynamic total output trend and economies of scale. As a consequence of this, 2020 should significantly exceed the operating profit threshold and double-digit EBITDA margins should be achievable in the long-term.
It is on this basis that we have evaluated the technology company using our DCF model and calculated a fair value of €108.50 per share (previously: €95.00 per share). The increase in the target price is due to the 'rollover effect' (technical rise in target price, as the target price now relates to the following financial year 2019 (previously: 2018)) and a change in the risk-free interest rate. The revision of our short and medium-term forecasts has prevented an even sharper rise in the target price. Based on the current share price level, this once again results in a BUY rating.
Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden: http://www.more-ir.de/d/17475.pdf
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