Original-Research: KPS AG (von GBC AG): BUY

Original-Research: KPS AG - von GBC AG

Einstufung von GBC AG zu KPS AG

Unternehmen: KPS AG
ISIN: DE000A1A6V48

Anlass der Studie: Research Comment
Empfehlung: BUY
Kursziel: EUR 18.00
Letzte Ratingänderung: 
Analyst: Matthias Greiffenberger

Growth continues in Q3 2016/17 - acquisition of ICE Consultants Europe SL
creates further potential - forecasts for FY 2017/18 confirmed - Target
Price: EUR18.00 - Rating: BUY
 
On 11/08/2017, KPS AG released its figures for the 3rd quarter and
confirmed the forecast for the financial year. In the 3rd quarter, revenue
rose by 3.4% to EUR39.7 million (previous year: EUR38.4 million) and
revenue of EUR122.53 million was thus achieved in the first 9 months. Given
the company's own forecast of EUR160 million in revenues, this would mean
further revenue of EUR37.47 million would be required in the 4th quarter
(previous year: EUR37.72 million). This is an indication of an extremely
conservative forecast as, with this forecast, an implicit slight decrease
in revenue for the 4th quarter would be expected. In our view, revenue of
EUR164.25 million should be reached in FY 16/17 and we consequently expect
a revenue increase to EUR41.72 million in the 4th quarter. On the results
side, EBIT remained at the previous year's level in the 3rd quarter at
EUR5.9 million (previous year: EUR6.0 million). This is in particular due
to higher investments in head count, which should form the basis for
further growth.
 
Furthermore, the acquisition of ICE Consultants Europe SL, Barcelona, (ICE)
was also announced in the past quarter (see corporate news dated
01/08/2017). The finalisation of the acquisition is planned for 02/10/2017.
In addition to the approximately 100 consultants, ICE should also have an
EBIT margin on a par with KPS's and have a similar growth dynamic. Besides
the high profitability, the acquisition should, in particular, create
access to new customers in new industries for KPS. Stronger local contact
with customers through small, regional teams is planned. At the same time,
the majority of the value creation will be realised in the SmartFactory in
Dortmund. This will make higher margins possible in the long term, as this
will allow an industrialisation of the consultancy approach. ICE
effectively has a broader industry focus than KPS and assists companies in
the sectors of retail and wholesale, consumer products, automotive and
pharmaceuticals. This provides KPS with cross-industry expertise and new
customer groups. Given ICE's excellent market position and the potential
synergies, we regard the acquisition as highly valuable; however, the
purchase price and financing must be analysed in further detail for a
qualified evaluation. Further information in this regard is to be published
later.
 
In our view, KPS AG is extremely well-positioned in the current market
environment and should be able to achieve gradual margin improvements with
dynamic revenue in the long term with the industrialisation of the
consultancy approach. Besides providing further important access to
customers, the recent acquisition of ICE will also be able to provide KPS
AG with supplementary expertise. We there-fore expect the long-term growth
dynamic of KPS to be even further strengthened by the acquisition. Based on
our DCF model, we have determined an unchanged fair value of EUR18.00 per
share and assign a BUY rating.

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/15579.pdf

Kontakt für Rückfragen
Jörg Grunwald
Vorstand
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
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http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung.htm
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