Original-Research: Expedeon AG (von GBC AG): BUY

Original-Research: Expedeon AG - von GBC AG

Einstufung von GBC AG zu Expedeon AG

Unternehmen: Expedeon AG
ISIN: DE000A2YN801

Anlass der Studie: Research Note
Empfehlung: BUY
Kursziel: 3.20 Euro
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 31/12/2020
Letzte Ratingänderung: 
Analyst: Cosmin Filker, Marcel Goldmann

Half-year figures for 2019 meet our expectations, significant increase in
revenue and earnings, stock price target and BUY-rating confirmed
 
Expedeon management confirmed its previous forecast with the publication of
the 2019 half-year figures. As a result, double-digit sales growth compared
with 2018 and adjusted EBITDA of more than EUR 2.0 million is still
expected. Based on the 30.8% increase in revenue achieved in the first six
months of 2019, the revenue forecast should be easily achievable. On the
basis of the second quarter of 2019, in which revenues of EUR 3.90 million
were generated, the run rate projected for the financial year is EUR 15.60
million. Against this backdrop, our revenue forecasts of EUR 15.93 million,
which also include a continuation of the positive growth momentum in the
second half of the year, are realistic assumptions.
 
In addition to increased revenue from existing products (expansion of
sales, expansion of partner business, cross-selling, etc.), Expedeon AG
should also benefit in the medium term from the introduction of new
products that are based on existing technology. Within the platform
technologies TruePrimeTM, Lightning-Link(R) and CaptSureTM, new products
could be introduced in the short and medium term leading to potential
revenue of over EUR 20.0 million per year. In addition, products in the
field of diagnostics should increasingly complement our product range.
Accordingly, we expect sales growth to continue at the same level in the
medium term and expect to exceed EUR 20.0 million turnover as early as the
coming financial year 2020.
 
At the earnings level, we also confirm the forecasts published in the
research study (see study dated 23/07/19). The EBITDA of EUR 2.18 million
that we expect for 2019 Expedeon shares, assuming a constant development of
the share price, would amount to an adjusted EBITDA of approximately EUR
3.0 million. Expedeon AG achieved an adjusted EBITDA of EUR 1.21 million
for the first six months of 2019, making our EBITDA forecast easily
achievable. We expect the EBITDA margin to increase to over 20% in the
coming financial years, with EBITDA margins of 35% achievable on the basis
of correspondingly high revenue levels combined with an increasing share of
high-margin licence revenue. This assumption is shown in the continuity
phase of our DCF valuation model.
 
Due to the fact that half-year development was in line with our
expectations in absolute terms, we not only confirm our forecasts, but also
leave our DCF valuation model unchanged. We thus confirm our previous stock
price target of EUR 3.20 per share and maintain the BUY rating.

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/19119.pdf

Kontakt für Rückfragen
Jörg Grunwald
Vorstand
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR. Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (4,5a,7,10,11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter:
http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung.htm
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Date (Time) of completion: 04/10/2019 (1:51 pm)
Datum (Time) first distribution: 07/10/2019 (09:00 am)

-------------------übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.------------------- Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw. 
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oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.