Original-Research: Aves One AG (von GBC AG): BUY

Original-Research: Aves One AG - von GBC AG

Einstufung von GBC AG zu Aves One AG

Unternehmen: Aves One AG
ISIN: DE000A168114

Anlass der Studie: Research Comment
Empfehlung: BUY
Kursziel: 13.60 EUR
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 31.12.2020
Letzte Ratingänderung: -
Analyst: Matthias Greiffenberger; Cosmin Filker

9 Monthly Figures 2019 - Aves One continues its good business development.
Slight adjustment of the forecast and our price target to € 13.60
(previously: € 13.87). Rating: Buy.
 
In the first nine months of 2019, Aves One AG generated revenues of € 85.82
million (previous year: € 50.41 million). The main revenue driver is the
rail segment with a revenue contribution of € 55.61 million (previous year:
€ 23.07 million) compared with € 27.72 million in the container segment
(previous year: € 23.52 million). The reason for the growth in turnover was
a significant increase in the asset portfolio. The EBITDA again improved
disproportionately by 80.4% to € 63.55 million (previous year: € 35.22
million), resulting in an EBITDA margin improvement from 69.9% to 74.1%.
This demonstrates the scalability of their lean management approach and
high utilization of assets. Adjusted for non-cash exchange rate effects
(accounting for the functional currency in the container segment), EBT
amounted to € 8.92 million (previous year: € 2.61 million).
 
With the publication of the nine-month figures, the guidance was confirmed
with revenues of at least € 110 million and EBITDA of more than € 80
million. We currently assess the company's business development as very
good, but we assume that the trade dispute between the USA and China will
have a slight impact on the container market. This should be particularly
reflected in the area of used containers, which are constantly being sold
by Aves One. A corresponding development can already be seen in the Q3
figures and should also be found in the Q4 results. As a result of this
effect, we have slightly adjusted our forecast and now expect EBT before
currency effects of € 11.07 million (previously: € 11.54 million).
 
Overall, it is also evident that the investment focus is also increasingly
on the rail segment. In our opinion, the rail-to-container ratio of assets
could be above the ratio of 75%/25% in the future. This development would
also reduce further volatility in business development in the context of
the current geopolitical situation. We are highly confident that further
growth will come from additional assets and further optimization of rents
and capacity utilization. The high-margin rail segment should play an even
more important role in the future.
 
The company continues to review various debt and equity financing options,
which could result in positive valuation adjustments. Based on our DCF
model, we have calculated a fair value of € 13.60 per share (previously: €
13.87) and confirm our Buy rating.

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/19699.pdf

Kontakt für Rückfragen
Jörg Grunwald
Vorstand
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
++++++++++++++++
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR. Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (4,5a,7,10,11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter:
http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung
+++++++++++++++
Date of completion: 05/12/2019 (11:50 am) (German version: 4/12/19 4:50 pm)
Date of first distribution: 06/12/2019 (10:30 am) (German version: 5/12/19 10:30 am)
Target price valid until 31.12.2020

-------------------übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.------------------- Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw. 
Ersteller der Studie verantwortlich. Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung
oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.