Since there is no new news, I have not paid too much attention here. so let us look at some fundamentals. Numbers can’t lie but of course future projection is tricky. There is no argument that
Aixtron as a company is the leader of the segments it participates. All these segments have tremendous growth projections. I hold my investment and not trading.
From the quarterly presentations and taking 80% revenue as equipment sales, Aixtron’s 2018 quarterly sales per sector are (million):
LED: 7, 9, 6
Power semi: 5, 1, 4
Opto: 35, 30, 38
others: 2, 5, 4
After 3 Q’s the Opto (VCSEL) sector is dominant (103m), followed by LED (22m). The Power semi sector is still at infancy (10m). The other sector (11m) is probably for PV, black magic and maybe even OVPD Gen2.
Aixtron forecasts 79m Q4 revenue which translates to 63m equipment sales. Bernd said "lumpy" on LED (ROY) orders and lowered Q4 gross margin, which would imply a higher LED sector sales in Q4. Therefore I project the whole year LED sector= 40m (Q4=18m), power semi = 20m (Q4=10m), Opto = 135m (Q4=32m) and others = 13m (Q4=2m). They add up to 208m equipment and 260 projected full year total sales.
Going into 2019, 5G and EV could double the power semi to 40m. MOCVD for ROY LED would grow 10% to 45m due to the RGB fine-pitch and mini LED display applications. Opto stays flat at 135m due to some digestion from Apple and increasing Androids and auto applications. Other = 15m.
Total projected 2019 equipment sales = 40+45+135+15=235m, which translates to 294m PROJECTED 2019 total revenue.
www.marketscreener.com/AIXTRON-SE-3975874/financials/
For those who care about financial numbers, currently the analysts project 296m revenues and 0.36 EPS in 2019. Using today’s closing price of 8,32, the 2019 forward PE=24.8.
With earning growth rate of 20% (0.36/0.3=1.2), the PEG (P/E/G)=24.8/20=1.24. If one focuses on operating profit (EBITDA), the growth rate would be 39% from 2018 to 2019. These numbers say that Aixtron is not an expensive stock judging from its high growth rate.
OLED could add revenue in 2019 and I don’t think it is not included in the forecast.