Interstate movers chased affordability in 2023

SEATTLE, Jan. 9, 2024

• Charlotte, Providence and Indianapolis saw the highest net in-migration among the 50 largest markets.
• Chicago, San Diego and Cincinnati witnessed the most outbound moves compared to inbound relocations.
• Record-high housing costs in 2023 likely drove the continued trend of moving toward affordability.
• Movers are also, increasingly, relocating to areas with more home listings per resident.

SEATTLE, Jan. 9, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Households that moved across state lines in 2023 relocated to markets where homes cost on average $7,500 less than where they came from, a new Zillow® study of United Van Lines® data shows. That's down a bit from $8,900 at the peak of the pandemic housing market in 2021, but up from a savings of just $2,800 in 2019. 

The five metro areas that saw the largest net migration gains according to the United Van Lines data were relatively affordable markets in the South, Midwest and Northeast. Although housing affordability has always played a key role in explaining migration patterns, the increase in house prices during the pandemic and the subsequent jump in mortgage rates appears to have intensified the search for more tolerable monthly payments.

"Affordability is one of the biggest considerations for home buyers and sellers, and clearly plays a major role in deciding where to put down roots," said Zillow Senior Economist Orphe Divounguy. "Housing costs hit record highs last year, and made both buying and selling difficult, even for homeowners sitting on massive equity. Finding a less expensive area where dollars aren't quite so stretched was a smart move for a lot of people." 

Affordability may improve slightly in 2024, but it has declined significantly over the past four years. The share of median household income needed to pay rent has risen from less than 27% in November 2019 to nearly 30% in November 2023. The share of income needed for a monthly mortgage payment on a typical home purchase has risen even more dramatically, from about 23% to nearly 39% over the same period. In many places, especially the West Coast, costs are so high that a family making the median household income won't even qualify for a mortgage. 

United Van Lines customers have higher average household incomes than movers overall, but migration flows in the U.S. Census Bureau's American Community Survey reveal a similar pattern. In 2021, the average interstate mover moved to a metro area where homes would save them about $10,000 when compared to where they came from; that's in comparison to savings of a little less than $700 in 2019, before the pandemic.