Original-Research: KPS AG (von GBC AG): BUY

Original-Research: KPS AG - von GBC AG

Einstufung von GBC AG zu KPS AG

Unternehmen: KPS AG
ISIN: DE000A1A6V48

Anlass der Studie: Research Report (Anno)
Empfehlung: BUY
Kursziel: 16,60 EUR
Letzte Ratingänderung: -
Analyst: Matthias Greiffenberger

Strong financial year 2016/17 offers a solid basis for long-term growth plans with successive margin improvements

In the past financial year 2016/17, KPS AG was able to increase its revenue by 10.6% to EUR160.30 million (previous year: EUR144.93 million). This slightly exceeded the company's own forecast of EUR160 million; however revenue was slightly below our expectations of EUR164.24 million. At the same time, EBIT also increased by 11.2% to EUR24.76 million (previous year: EUR22.26 million), which resulted in a slight margin improvement. Hence, the company achieved an EBIT margin of 15.4%, which continues to be significantly above the industry average.

The first quarter of 2017/18 developed as expected and lower revenue and profit levels were achieved accordingly. Revenue fell by 5.5% to EUR38.10 million (previous year: EUR40.30 million) and EBIT fell by 51.6% to EUR3.10 million (previous year: EUR 6.40 million). The weaker result was primarily due to costs for project acquisitions, which should have a disproportionately positive effect on corporate development in the future. The forecast for the current financial year was again confirmed in the context of the quarterly figures and significantly higher profit levels are accordingly expected for the coming quarters.

For the coming financial year 2017/18, KPS AG has published a comparatively modest forecast of EUR160-170 million in revenue with EBIT of EUR23-26 million. On the one hand, this restraint is due to a major customer's postponement of a project and, on the other hand, the inadequate invoicing of long project cycles. In general, KPS projects last 18-24 months. The long project run times can result in uneven fluctuations in revenue, which is not only evident on a quarterly level, but also significant in the full year trend. Nevertheless, we remain convinced of the long-term growth potential of KPS AG.

Accordingly, we expect revenue growth of 2.7% to EUR164.55 million for 2017/18, with EBIT of EUR24.95 million. We therefore expect the company to remain at approximately the same level as the previous year in the coming year. At the same time, the project cycles should result in significantly more dynamic growth in the subsequent year. Accordingly, our forecast for 2018/19 is significantly higher, with revenue growth of 9.4% to EUR180.08 million and an operating result of EUR28.51 million. Therefore, we expect a slight decline in the EBIT margin to 15.2% in 2017/18, followed by overcompensation in 2018/19 to 15.8%. This also corresponds to the management's statement, namely that the EBIT margin should exceed 16.0% in the long term, with double-digit growth in revenue.

Against the background of the current development, we assume that the KPS investment case will continue to exist. Due to the digitisation megatrend, there is a lively demand for digital transformation and KPS can serve this field as European market leader in the area of commerce and logistics. This is also reflected in the consulting team's almost full workload. At the same time, there should be an increase in margins in the medium- to long-term as a result of the changeover to its own consultants. In combination with the industrialisation of the consultancy approach, we assume that the long-term target for the EBIT margin of over 16.0% is feasible. On the basis of our DCF model, we have determined a target price of EUR16.60 per share (previously EUR18.00) and have awarded the BUY rating.

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/16173.pdf

Kontakt für Rückfragen
Jörg Grunwald
Vorstand
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR. Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,7,11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter:
http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung.htm
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