CANADIANS GEARING UP TO RE-ENTER THE HOUSING MARKET DESPITE DECLINING CONFIDENCE IN THE ECONOMY

TORONTO, Jan. 17, 2024

According to the findings of the Dye & Durham's Canadian Pulse Report for Q4 2023, a survey of 1,003 Canadians on trends in the economy, technology and real estate market conducted via the online Angus Reid Forum, fewer Canadians say they are planning to wait for house prices and interest rates to decrease before buying a property, despite lingering concerns about the strength of the economy. Only one-in-five (20%) Canadians say they plan to wait for purchase prices to drop in 2024, and 21% plan to wait for interest rates to decline - down from 24% and 23% respectively in Q3.

High interest rates continue to impact financial well-being and spending patterns
Only 20% of Canadians feel better off financially this year than last year, down from the 25% who thought so in Q3. Conversely, the number of Canadians who say they are worse off financially today rose to 44% in Q4 from 39% in Q3. High interest rates and inflation have played a considerable role in this, as Canadians are expecting they will need to spend more on groceries (57%), gas (41%), insurance (auto, 30%; home, 28%) and rent (25%) next year than they have in the past year.

Canadians are also now more pessimistic about the overall economy in 2024, with 59% believing there will be a recession in the next 12 months - considerably higher than 54% who expected as much in Q3. Less than one-in-ten (9%) believe Canada will avoid a recession in the next 12 months, with 31% believing we're already in one.

"Inflation is cooling and interest rates are stabilizing, and with that Canadians are telling us that they have renewed optimism in the outlook for their housing plans," says Martha Vallance, Chief Operating Officer, Dye & Durham. "It appears that many prospective homebuyers are growing tired of trying to time the market, and pent-up demand could lead to a long-awaited volume rebound for lawyers, realtors and all those that serve real estate interests across the country in 2024."

Positive signs for real estate market resurgence in 2024
The number of Canadians who say they plan to sell their primary residence and purchase a new one in the next 12 months increased modestly during the end of 2023, from 10% in Q3 to 12% in Q4. Additionally, the number of Canadians who had previously left the homeownership market in favour of renting but are now planning to re-enter the ownership market in the next 12 months has increased from 6% in Q3 to 8% in Q4. Finally, the number of Canadians who plan to buy an investment or income property in the next year has slightly increased from 8% in Q3 to 9% in Q4.

While Canadians appear more bullish on their real estate plans, they do not anticipate the cost of home ownership to be in their favour in 2024. More than half (52%) expect prices to increase in their areas in the next year, with 16% believing they will increase significantly. Most Canadians are also skeptical about mortgage rates becoming more manageable, with less than one-in-five (19%) saying they are expecting mortgage rates to decrease in the next year.