Experts Predict Housing Market Will Soon Favor Buyers

Dienstag, 29.11.2016 14:05 von

PR Newswire

SEATTLE, Nov. 29, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- U.S. home values are up over 6 percent over the past year, to a Zillow Home Value Indexi (ZHVI) of $191,200, according to the October Zillow® Real Estate Market Reportsii.

Home values across the country have been rising for more than four years. Due to low inventory, prospective buyers often face intense competition. Less than half of buyers are successful in purchasing the first home they make an offer on, according to the Zillow Group Consumer Housing Trends Report.

Despite unfriendly market conditions for buyers, housing experts predict things will change in the near future – the majority of experts surveyed in the latest Zillow Home Price Expectations Surveyiii said they expect the housing market to shift from a seller's market to a buyer's market in 2018 or 2019. Zillow forecasts home values to slow to a 3 percent appreciation rate by next October.

"The housing market has been favoring sellers for the past few years," said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Svenja Gudell. "Sellers in the current housing landscape often have the luxury of listing their home 'as-is' without fixing it up or with only minimal window-dressing since demand for homes has been high and inventory low. It's common for sellers to receive multiple bids, and in the hottest markets, sell for over asking price, but these conditions will change in the future. As the number of homes for sale increases and home value appreciation slows, we expect the market to meaningfully swing in favor of buyers within the next two to three years."

Portland, Dallas and Seattle reported the highest year-over-year home value appreciation among the 35 largest metros across the country for the third month in a row. Home values in Portland rose almost 15 percent to a median value of $349,500. Dallas and Seattle home values have appreciated just over 12 percent since last October.

Rents across the nation are up 1.4 percent, to a median rent payment of $1,402 per month. Seattle, Portland and Sacramento reported the highest year-over-year rent appreciation among the 35 largest U.S. housing markets. Rents in Seattle are up 9 percent to a Zillow Rent Indexiv (ZRI) of $2,087. Rents in Portland and Sacramento are up 7 and 6 percent, respectively.

There are 6 percent fewer homes for sale across the country than a year ago, with Boston, Indianapolis and Kansas City reporting the greatest drop in inventory among the 35 largest U.S. metros. In Boston there are 26 percent fewer homes to choose from than a year ago, and 24 percent fewer in Indianapolis.

Metropolitan
Area

Zillow Home
Value Index
(ZHVI)

Year-over-
Year ZHVI
Change

Zillow Rent
Index (ZRI)

Year-over-
Year ZRI
Change

Year-over-
Year Inventory
Change

United States

$               191,200

6.2%

$         1,402

1.4%

-5.7%

New York, NY

$               398,000

5.7%

$         2,384

0.9%

-9.6%

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA

$               584,700

6.0%

$         2,606

5.0%

-6.8%

Chicago, IL

$               202,100

4.6%

$         1,637

-0.3%

-11.0%

Dallas-Fort Worth, TX

$               198,900

12.3%

$         1,550

3.8%

-17.8%

Philadelphia, PA

$               213,400

4.0%

$         1,573

0.8%

-12.9%

Houston, TX

$               175,800

7.5%

$         1,566

-0.6%

1.9%

Washington, DC

$               375,900

2.6%

$         2,120

0.4%

-17.5%

Miami-Fort Lauderdale, FL

$               243,800

9.1%

$         1,881

3.6%

12.4%

Atlanta, GA

$               171,100

7.5%

$         1,324

3.9%

-6.8%

Boston, MA

$               405,200

6.0%

$         2,312

3.3%

-25.8%

San Francisco, CA

$               821,800

5.4%

$         3,390

2.6%

-1.2%

Detroit, MI

$               133,100

9.0%

$         1,168

3.1%

-18.2%

Riverside, CA

$               316,500

6.7%

$         1,736

2.8%

-7.6%

Phoenix, AZ

$               227,500

7.0%

$         1,298

3.8%

-0.3%

Seattle, WA

$               409,900

12.2%

$         2,087

9.1%

-1.5%

Minneapolis-St Paul, MN

$               233,000

6.2%

$         1,542

2.5%

-8.6%

San Diego, CA

$               524,900

6.4%

$         2,432

5.0%

8.9%

St. Louis, MO

$               147,000

6.8%

$         1,121

-0.2%

-14.4%

Tampa, FL

$               175,200

11.0%

$         1,333

3.1%

-9.3%

Baltimore, MD

$               254,800

3.1%

$         1,727

0.5%

-13.4%

Denver, CO

$               350,400

10.2%

$         2,004

3.0%

4.4%

Pittsburgh, PA

$               133,000

5.1%

$         1,086

-1.4%

2.5%

Portland, OR

$               349,500

14.6%

$         1,792

7.0%

-6.0%

Charlotte, NC

$               165,800

7.2%

$         1,240

1.6%

-11.8%

Sacramento, CA

$               348,600

7.6%

$         1,700

6.3%

-5.1%

San Antonio, TX

$               155,600

6.5%

$         1,322

1.2%

19.6%

Orlando, FL

$               195,400

9.1%

$         1,378

3.0%

-11.3%

Cincinnati, OH

$               146,900

5.6%

$         1,236

0.8%

-14.6%

Cleveland, OH

$               129,900

5.1%

$         1,146

1.5%

-10.4%

Kansas City, MO

$               151,400

5.9%

$         1,235

3.2%

-21.8%

Las Vegas, NV

$               212,600

10.1%

$         1,239

2.0%

28.5%

Columbus, OH

$               159,200

3.6%

$         1,292

1.5%

-17.8%

Indianapolis, IN

$               133,100

1.1%

$         1,190

0.2%

-24.0%

San Jose, CA

$               958,900

4.5%

$         3,495

2.8%

-6.0%

Austin, TX

$               258,600

8.4%

 n/a

n/a

16.8%

 

Zillow
Zillow® is the leading real estate and rental marketplace dedicated to empowering consumers with data, inspiration and knowledge around the place they call home, and connecting them with the best local professionals who can help. In addition, Zillow operates an industry-leading economics and analytics bureau led by Zillow's Chief Economist Dr. Svenja Gudell. Dr. Gudell and her team of economists and data analysts produce extensive housing data and research covering more than 450 markets at Zillow Real Estate Research. Zillow also sponsors the quarterly Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey, which asks more than 100 leading economists, real estate experts and investment and market strategists to predict the path of the Zillow Home Value Index over the next five years. Zillow also sponsors the bi-annual Zillow Housing Confidence Index (ZHCI) which measures consumer confidence in local housing markets, both currently and over time. Launched in 2006, Zillow is owned and operated by Zillow Group (NASDAQ:Z and ZG), and headquartered in Seattle.

Zillow and Zestimate are registered trademarks of Zillow, Inc.




i The Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) is the median estimated home value for a given geographic area on a given day and includes the value of all single-family residences, condominiums and cooperatives, regardless of whether they sold within a given period. It is expressed in dollars, and seasonally adjusted.

ii The Zillow Real Estate Market Reports are a monthly overview of the national and local real estate markets. The reports are compiled by Zillow Real Estate Research. For more information, visit www.zillow.com/research/. The data in Zillow's Real Estate Market Reports are aggregated from public sources by a number of data providers for 928 metropolitan and micropolitan areas dating back to 1996. Mortgage and home loan data are typically recorded in each county and publicly available through a county recorder's office. All current monthly data at the national, state, metro, city, ZIP code and neighborhood level can be accessed at www.zillow.com/local-info/ and www.zillow.com/research/data.

iii This edition of the Zillow® Home Price Expectations Survey surveyed 111 experts between October 28 and November 15, 2016. The survey was conducted by Pulsenomics LLC on behalf of Zillow, Inc. and asked the experts about their expectations for the housing market.

iv The Zillow Rent Index (ZRI) is the median Rent Zestimate® (estimated monthly rental price) for a given geographic area on a given day, and includes the value of all single-family residences, condominiums, cooperatives and apartments in Zillow's database, regardless of whether they are currently listed for rent. It is expressed in dollars.

 

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SOURCE Zillow