Comerica Bank's Texas Index Sees Another Month of Gains

DALLAS, Jan. 31, 2017

"The Comerica Bank Texas Economic Activity Index increased for the third consecutive month in November, showing that the state's economy is turning the corner after the dramatic slowdown in oil field activity that began in late 2014. Seven out of eight index components were positive in November, including nonfarm payrolls, unemployment insurance claims (inverted), housing starts, rig count, home prices and hotel occupancy. Only state sales tax revenue eased. Job growth in Texas slowed from well above the national average in 2014, to near the national average through 2016. The most recent data shows a net of essentially zero new jobs for Texas in December 2016, which is the third weakest month for job growth in recent history. March 2015 and March 2016 both saw net job losses. However, we expect the state to bounce back from the weak December jobs report and show ongoing positive job creation through 2017," said Robert Dye, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank. "The drilling rig count improved through late 2016, indicative of more economic activity in oil-intensive areas."

The Texas Economic Activity Index consists of eight variables, as follows: nonfarm payrolls, exports, hotel occupancy rates, continuing claims for unemployment insurance, housing starts, sales tax revenues, home prices, and the Baker Hughes rotary rig count. All data are seasonally adjusted, as necessary, and indexed to a base year of 2008. Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Index levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving averages.

Comerica Bank is a subsidiary of Comerica Incorporated (NYSE: CMA), the largest U.S. commercial bank headquartered in Texas, strategically aligned by three business segments: The Business Bank, The Retail Bank, and Wealth Management. Comerica focuses on relationships, and helping people and businesses be successful. In addition to a local banking center network throughout Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Austin, San Antonio and Kerrville, Texas, Comerica Bank locations can be found in Arizona, California, Florida and Michigan, with select businesses operating in several other states, as well as in Canada and Mexico.

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