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Andrew Nelson: Still on the topic of commodities which have yet to turn, uranium seems to be a contrarian’s dream right now. What’s currently happening and give us your 2-3 year outlook.
Rick Rule: The uranium market is absolutely ludicrous right now. We are right back where we were in the year 2000, except we are accommodating the shortfall with a continued production ramp up which probably goes another 18 months. This is mainly due to Kazataprom, the state owned uranium producer of Kazakhstan.
On a global basis experts estimate, including the cost of capital, that it takes the industry between USD $60-$65/lb to produce a pound of uranium. That is total cost, including cost of capital, not just operating costs. So you produce uranium for $60 and then sell it for USD $26/lb. You lose USD $34/lb by being a producer in the uranium business. It doesn’t work. It can work for a couple of years because of the ramp up in Kazak production and because of the above ground storage piles that exist as a consequence of the shutting down of the Japanese reactor fleet.
But when the price changes, it changes with a vengeance. You’ll recall in 2003 the last time the price changed when it went from USD $8/lb to USD $130/lb, the price doesn’t just rise to a market clearing price. It doesn’t clear because supply destruction means the market can’t react to pricing signals by an increase in supply once you’ve destroyed the ability to produce.
I think 2-3 years is what it requires to recover. Sprott is going to deploy capital in the uranium business aggressively in the middle of next year. We tentatively have scheduled a uranium investment conference. We think by focusing on uranium next summer that we will have about a year to deploy before we come into a bull market in uranium.
So for people that have the patience and fiscal ability to wait a year and a half to be really right, uranium is a good place to be. Most people don’t have that much patience. My suspicion is that by beginning to focus on uranium now and focusing on uranium aggressively next summer that we as a firm at Sprott will be able to use up the float in the few remaining successful uranium juniors. Exactly the same way we did in 2000 to 2002. The rewards in the period in 2002 to 2005 were legend. It took us 24 months of patient dull slugging between 2000 and 2002, but by the end of 2002 our clients owned the float in the 5 viable uranium juniors and the outcome was breathtaking.
www.mining.com/web/...lients-to-hold-physical-precious-metals/
In China werden nach Angaben des Kraftwerksbauers SNPTC in den den kommenden zehn Jahren mehr als 60 neue Atommeiler entstehen.
Die drei großen chinesischen Nuklearfirmen SNPTC, CNNC und CGN würden künftig jeweils mindestens zwei neue Atomkraftwerke pro Jahr bauen, sagte SNPTC-Vizepräsident Zheng Mingguang am Freitag auf einer Branchenkonferenz in London der Nachrichtenagentur Reuters.
30 neue Meiler sollten binnen der kommenden fünf Jahre entstehen, eine noch darüber hinaus gehende Zahl in den fünf Jahren darauf.
Großbritannien hatte am Donnerstag grünes Licht für den ersten Atomkraftwerks-Bau in der EU seit der Katastrophe im japanischen Fukushima vor fünf Jahren gegeben. Am Bau von Hinkley Point ist auch China beteiligt. Österreich will den mit milliardenschweren Subventionen geplanten Bau mittels einer Klage vor dem Europäischen Gerichtshof (EuGH) verhindern, die aber durch den Austritt Großbritanniens aus der EU hinfällig werden könnte.
wirtschaftsblatt.at/home/nachrichten/...60-neue-Atomkraftwerke
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