Short term Ausblick

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Short term Ausblick Scavenger

Short term Ausblick

Liebe Leute,
ich bin neu am Board, und wenn ich mehr Zeit habe, werde ich mich eingehender vorstellen.
Heute nur ein Auszug aus Gene Ingers daily briefing, das ich seit einigen Monaten beziehe ( Der Mann steht zur Börde, wie wir alle es tun sollten: Nicht Bulle, nicht Bär, distanziert, kein Glaubensbekenntnis.

Heute schreibt er:
" In Summary. . . an old fisherman would say the "mullet have been run" already, referring to the kind of upside we had in the past month or so overall, much of which may negate what would be a normal January Effect this year. However, we're still optimistic that enough pressure combined with tax-selling in the downtrodden, will enable something like that to occur this year, even if a bit more than usual actually happens in January itself, rather than before it's start, due to the Y2k transition. From that standpoint, the most bullish set-up would be a very hard hit ahead of then. A Dow Jones nearing 9,000 would be much more attractive for rallying than one pushing 11,000.
Our guidelines remain short the December S&P for the moment from the 1426-27 level, which is inline with our looking for a correction, and speculating that last Friday's conclusion might be a bit soft, in front of this week, particularly if traders believe that the rebound was a test of earlier highs, and not the commencement of any new upside leg. For now that is our market viewpoint; with more accomplished for traders Tuesday, and particularly for those holding position shorts.
The McClellan Oscillator spent much of the last week eroding, while the Averages progressed, until the expected downside most recently seen, interrupted by the expected intervening rally in front of the Thanksgiving holiday, but not afterwards, in a Friday that was expected to fade later in the day, and a defensive Monday, in the midst of a rocky interest rate environment, and then a very dramatic Tuesday, which turned into an outside-down day for the Dow, and just down in the S&P and NDX. The Oscillator posting for Monday was around -98; and on Tuesday near -120.
Lurking in the wings. . . don't forget, is Friday's Employment Report. And while we don't tend to embrace hinging the market's future on any indicator, everyone is certainly watching it. While the tip-off for this market may be more related to the combination of 5% GDP growth along with 5% inflation (think about that, and ponder who would have foreseen exactly where this all is); we can't imagine even the staunchest permabulls showing much willingness to chase rallies in front of Friday's number. That means that while a bounce-back is reasonably appropriate to look for in tomorrow's (Wednesday's) midday timeframe, much more than that isn't; so it could be down-up-down in such a tentative climate.
As of 6:30 p.m. Tuesday, Globex S&P behavior is weaker than the regular Chicago closing. As of now, premium is a -57 discount, with futures at 1388.60, down 290 from the 1391.50 close. We continue short overnight, from the 1426-27 area (or better), depending on intraday actions. It was expected to be increasingly likely that we move well back into the S&P 1300's, with a little drama; and that is what we're getting. An old saw holds that the market does best when climbing a wall of worry. Anyone seen a "wall of worry" lately?


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