Der USA Bären-Thread

So, can the Trump bump in the stock market keep going? Stockman... says, "...This is delusional.  This is the greatest suckers’ rally of all time.  It is based on pure hopium and not any analysis at all as what it will take to push through a big tax cut.  Donald Trump is in a trap.  Today the debt is $20 trillion.  It’s 106% of GDP. . . .Trump is inheriting a built-in deficit of $10 trillion over the next decade under current policies that are built in.  Yet, he wants more defense spending, not less.  He wants drastic sweeping tax cuts for corporations and individuals.  He wants to spend more money on border security and law enforcement.  He’s going to do more for the veterans.  He wants this big trillion dollar infrastructure program.  You put all that together and it’s madness.  It doesn’t even begin to add up, and it won’t happen when you are struggling with the $10 trillion of debt that’s coming down the pike and the $20 trillion that’s already on the books.”

Could America Really Win a "Limited" Nuclear War?

...this past week, CQ Roll Call reported that a blue-ribbon Pentagon panel urged the Trump administration to make the U.S. arsenal more capable of fighting a “‘limited’ atomic war.”

According to the report, “The Defense Science Board … urges the president to consider altering existing and planned U.S. armaments to achieve a greater number of lower-yield weapons that could provide a ‘tailored nuclear option for limited use.’”

The strategy behind limited nuclear use sounds deceptively simple. You need to escalate a conflict just enough to end it.

As the theory goes, using low-yield nuclear weapons against an adversary’s conventional forces will demonstrate that you mean serious business and might be crazy enough to launch an all out nuclear attack. This will cause the enemy to “blink” and ultimately back down, rather than risk global thermonuclear war or continue conventional hostilities....

“No Congress of the United States ever assembled, on surveying the State of the Union, has met with a more pleasant prospect than that which appears at the present time.”
- Calvin Coolidge, December 4, 1928
(A.L. = zehn Monate vor Mega-Crash im Oktober 1929)

“There can be little argument that the American economy as it stands at the beginning of a new century has never exhibited so remarkable a prosperity for at least the majority of Americans.”
- Alan Greenspan, January 30, 2000
(A.L: = zwei Monate vor dem Platzen der Dot.com-Blase. Der Nasday fiel von 5000 im März 2000 auf unter 1000 im Oktober 2002).

“We believe the effect of the troubles in the subprime sector on the broader housing market will be limited and we do not expect significant spillovers from the subprime market to the rest of the economy or to the financial system.”
- Ben Bernanke, May 17, 2007
(A.L.: Bereits zwei Monate später, im Juli 2007, trocknete die "Hyperliquidität" ein, was Private-Equity Funds die Refinanzierung erschwerte. Im Herbst 2008 folgte - wegen Subprime - ein Horror-Absturz.)

"Investors haven’t been this optimistic on the global economy since 2011... A full 23 percent of investors expect an outright ‘boom,’ according to a survey released Tuesday by Bank of America Merrill Lynch... ‘The U.S. economy is not only humming on all cylinders, but in our view the optimism associated with a clean sweep by the Republicans in Washington is likely to create a self-fulfilling period of strong markets and at least the potential for strong growth.’ The optimism comes amid forecasts global growth will pick up and as Donald Trump promises to cut taxes, boost fiscal spending and loosen regulations in moves that could boost corporate earnings. ‘Macro optimism is surging,’ wrote the team.”

- Bloomberg, February 14, 2017

www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc170220.htm

The relationship between the economy and the stock market is a study in contradiction. It’s precisely when economic optimism is strongest, when caution is seen as misguided, and when bullish enthusiasm is most exuberant, that the stock market reaches its speculative apex and becomes most vulnerable to collapse. It’s precisely when economic pessimism is most dismal, when hope is set aside, and when bearish consensus is most dire, that market plumbs its deepest lows and carries the greatest potential for future returns.

Hussman: "The chart below updates several of these measures (A.L.: Case-Shiller-KGV usw. ) as of last week. We continue to view recent market action as the likely final blowoff of one of the most extreme speculative episodes in U.S. history."

www.marketwatch.com/story/...s-off-familiar-profit-warning-2017-02-28

Priceline’s stock soars to record high as Wall Street shrugs off familiar profit warning

Shares of Priceline Group Inc. shot up into record territory Tuesday in the aftermath of the online travel company’s fourth-quarter results, as Wall Street shrugged off another significant, but all-too-familiar, profit warning.
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Deutsch: Die Priceline-Aktie steigt auf ATH, nachdem Wall Street die übliche Gewinnwarnung ignoriert hat.

Dümmer geht's nimmer. Und so sieht die Idiotie im Schaubild aus:

Folge: Die Chance für März-Erhöhung ist stark auf 65 % gestiegen (Chart unten).

Fed’s Dudley says case for interest-rate hike has become ‘a lot more compelling’

...New York Fed President William Dudley ... said that “animal spirits have been unleashed a bit” in the wake of the presidential election, pointing to the rise in the stock market.

“It seems to me that most of the data we’ve seen over the last couple months is very much consistent with the economy continuing to grow at an above-trend pace, job gains remain pretty sturdy, inflation has actually drifted up a little bit as energy prices have increased,” Dudley said. So we’re very much on the trajectory that... we’re going to gradually remove accommodation,”