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Der USA Bären-Thread
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ist leider nicht mehr gegeben.
Ich würde jedem Unternehmen dringend abraten in GR noch zu investieren.
Egal ob Goldmine oder ein anderes Unternehmen. Diese Politiker sind unberechenbar geworden.
Man kann jederzeit eine Minenentwicklung stoppen und die Arbeiter nach Hause schicken -- das ist eine politische Entscheidung. Aber dann muss man alle Investitionen und den Wert der Mine abgelten, so viel ist wohl auch klar.
Ich würde jedem Unternehmen dringend abraten in GR noch zu investieren.
Egal ob Goldmine oder ein anderes Unternehmen. Diese Politiker sind unberechenbar geworden.
Man kann jederzeit eine Minenentwicklung stoppen und die Arbeiter nach Hause schicken -- das ist eine politische Entscheidung. Aber dann muss man alle Investitionen und den Wert der Mine abgelten, so viel ist wohl auch klar.
also Bürgermeister bestochen, und in der Eu vorgeschriebene Schritte wie Umweltprüfungsverfahren und Beteiligung der Betroffenen nicht eingehalten wurden, die Firma sich nicht an die Auflagen hält und Grundwasser verunreinigt, ist es völlig klar, dass die Genehmigung widerrufen werden kann und der Verursacher von Umweltschäden für deren Beseitigung aufzukommen hat
das ist der Vorteil der EU :sollte Griechenland keine klare Rechtslage haben,gibt es zumindest EU-Vorschriften und notfalls den EuGH
das ist der Vorteil der EU :sollte Griechenland keine klare Rechtslage haben,gibt es zumindest EU-Vorschriften und notfalls den EuGH
ist es im Auftrag der FED? oder gab sie das Geld dafür schon früher oder steckt der mysteriöse Käufer in Belgien dahinter ?
www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-07/...arter-has-been-identified
www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-07/...arter-has-been-identified
der Wirtschaft vor dem IMF-Treffen ?
www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-06/...ncy-important-imf-meeting
...A simple example might be helpful here. When the Dollar is cheap and the Euro expensive, would airline carriers place an order with Boeing or Airbus? The answer is pretty straightforward, as everyone with a common sense about how economics work would say that Boeing would get the order due to a cheap dollar, reducing the expense in the third currency compared to buying an Airbus in Euro.
So, the Euro went down the drain lately and has lost approximately 25% of its value compared to the US Dollar in less than a year time. That’s obviously excellent for the exporting countries in the Eurozone, but then the question arises why on earth the US government (or the Fed, for that matter) allows the US Dollar to appreciate this fast? It would only need a few comments from Fed chair Yellen saying the Fed will not raise its interest rate this year to make that happen.
.......
www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-06/...ncy-important-imf-meeting
www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-06/...ncy-important-imf-meeting
...A simple example might be helpful here. When the Dollar is cheap and the Euro expensive, would airline carriers place an order with Boeing or Airbus? The answer is pretty straightforward, as everyone with a common sense about how economics work would say that Boeing would get the order due to a cheap dollar, reducing the expense in the third currency compared to buying an Airbus in Euro.
So, the Euro went down the drain lately and has lost approximately 25% of its value compared to the US Dollar in less than a year time. That’s obviously excellent for the exporting countries in the Eurozone, but then the question arises why on earth the US government (or the Fed, for that matter) allows the US Dollar to appreciate this fast? It would only need a few comments from Fed chair Yellen saying the Fed will not raise its interest rate this year to make that happen.
.......
www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-06/...ncy-important-imf-meeting
If I had an easy way and a non-risk way of shorting a whole lot of 20- or 30-year bonds, I’d do it,” said our favorite uncle Warren Buffett on CNBC. These kinds of bonds have been on a terrific bull run ever since Paul Volker, as Chairman of the Fed, cracked down on inflation. But now, even the avuncular face of capitalism would bet against them.
He was behind the curve. On April 22, Bill Gross, at Janus Capital, tweeted that 10-year German government debt was “The short of a lifetime.” The “only question” was “Timing.” Other bond gurus have jumped into the fray. Selling bonds outright, or selling them short if you didn’t already own them, particularly European government bonds, has become the thing to do in certain circles. Now valuations are falling, and yields are soaring off their ludicrously low levels.
So within the last 30 days, the 10-year US Treasury yield jumped from 1.83% to 2.23% as I’m writing this; the German 10-year Bund yield, instead of dropping below zero, skyrocketed from 0.05% to 0.60%; the Italian 10-year yield soared from 1.18% to 1.93%. And so on. Sharply rising long-term yields are percolating through the system.
In the era when several trillion dollars of even crappy government debt is so overpriced that it sports negative yields, thanks to central-bank machinations, this bout of selling is somewhat inconvenient.
Bonds with long maturities are particularly vulnerable. That’s what Buffett, the ultimate “smart money,” would focus on. And selling them is exactly what companies are doing at a record pace while there are still eager buyers for them out there.
.....
So far this year, according to Bloomberg, companies have sold $39 billion in bonds that mature in over 30 years. That’s over five times more than during the same period in 2014.
...
Companies have sold $627.2 billion in bonds so far this year, up 6.57% from last year at this time, which had already been a record year. For the full year 2014, total issuance hit a vertigo-inducing $1.57 trillion.
So, companies are borrowing a record amount to fund share buybacks, acquisitions, and other mouthwatering hocus-pocus goodies. They’re leveraging up their balance sheets with these records amounts of debt, and they’re venturing at a record pace into maturities that exceed the remaining lifespan of many bond-fund investors.
These companies, too, are the ultimate smart money. They’re doing what Buffett would like to do, and what the shorts are now doing, this being the deal of a “lifetime”: they’re selling bonds that mature so far in the future that redeeming them is going to be another generation’s problem.
Heck, governments do it too. Even Mexico, ...But for the buyers, for the very folks who have been scrambling over each other to grab a piece of this reeking pie, for the yield-desperate bond-fund managers, insurance companies, and others that have been driven to near-insanity by years of interest-rate repression and QE, for all those eager buyers who’ll end up owning these bonds in their conservative-sounding bond funds, for them, these bonds might curdle.
...... if there is a big bout of inflation at any one time during the next many years or decades – a lot of stuff happens in 30 or 40 years – that record amount of debt, issued during times of super-low interest rates, will become the scourge of those who own it......
wolfstreet.com/2015/05/06/...to-profit-from-bond-market-swoon/
He was behind the curve. On April 22, Bill Gross, at Janus Capital, tweeted that 10-year German government debt was “The short of a lifetime.” The “only question” was “Timing.” Other bond gurus have jumped into the fray. Selling bonds outright, or selling them short if you didn’t already own them, particularly European government bonds, has become the thing to do in certain circles. Now valuations are falling, and yields are soaring off their ludicrously low levels.
So within the last 30 days, the 10-year US Treasury yield jumped from 1.83% to 2.23% as I’m writing this; the German 10-year Bund yield, instead of dropping below zero, skyrocketed from 0.05% to 0.60%; the Italian 10-year yield soared from 1.18% to 1.93%. And so on. Sharply rising long-term yields are percolating through the system.
In the era when several trillion dollars of even crappy government debt is so overpriced that it sports negative yields, thanks to central-bank machinations, this bout of selling is somewhat inconvenient.
Bonds with long maturities are particularly vulnerable. That’s what Buffett, the ultimate “smart money,” would focus on. And selling them is exactly what companies are doing at a record pace while there are still eager buyers for them out there.
.....
So far this year, according to Bloomberg, companies have sold $39 billion in bonds that mature in over 30 years. That’s over five times more than during the same period in 2014.
...
Companies have sold $627.2 billion in bonds so far this year, up 6.57% from last year at this time, which had already been a record year. For the full year 2014, total issuance hit a vertigo-inducing $1.57 trillion.
So, companies are borrowing a record amount to fund share buybacks, acquisitions, and other mouthwatering hocus-pocus goodies. They’re leveraging up their balance sheets with these records amounts of debt, and they’re venturing at a record pace into maturities that exceed the remaining lifespan of many bond-fund investors.
These companies, too, are the ultimate smart money. They’re doing what Buffett would like to do, and what the shorts are now doing, this being the deal of a “lifetime”: they’re selling bonds that mature so far in the future that redeeming them is going to be another generation’s problem.
Heck, governments do it too. Even Mexico, ...But for the buyers, for the very folks who have been scrambling over each other to grab a piece of this reeking pie, for the yield-desperate bond-fund managers, insurance companies, and others that have been driven to near-insanity by years of interest-rate repression and QE, for all those eager buyers who’ll end up owning these bonds in their conservative-sounding bond funds, for them, these bonds might curdle.
...... if there is a big bout of inflation at any one time during the next many years or decades – a lot of stuff happens in 30 or 40 years – that record amount of debt, issued during times of super-low interest rates, will become the scourge of those who own it......
wolfstreet.com/2015/05/06/...to-profit-from-bond-market-swoon/
For years, it threatened to print money. Now it is actually printing money and buying debt, and it’s inflicting its negative deposit rates on the markets. This drove much of European sovereign debt into the absurdity of “negative” yields – in quotation marks because logically, there should never be such a thing. But in this upside down era of central-bank deities, everything is possible.
At the same time, the Fed stopped QE and is currently contemplating interest rate increases. This juxtaposition of euro easing and dollar tightening unleashed a ferocious tsunami of hot money from Europe to the US.As a result, the euro plunged 25% against the dollar within 12 months, from $1.40 to $1.05 by mid-March. For shorts, it was the biggest no-brainer in the history of mankind. Everyone was short the euro. They were doing what the ECB wanted them to, which was push down the euro. ....
wolfstreet.com/2015/05/07/...ocket-euro-in-epic-short-squeeze/
At the same time, the Fed stopped QE and is currently contemplating interest rate increases. This juxtaposition of euro easing and dollar tightening unleashed a ferocious tsunami of hot money from Europe to the US.As a result, the euro plunged 25% against the dollar within 12 months, from $1.40 to $1.05 by mid-March. For shorts, it was the biggest no-brainer in the history of mankind. Everyone was short the euro. They were doing what the ECB wanted them to, which was push down the euro. ....
wolfstreet.com/2015/05/07/...ocket-euro-in-epic-short-squeeze/
eigenen Empfehlungen (# 281), verkaufte Puts auf den Bundfuture leer (= leicht kurs-bullische Posi mit riesigem Verlustpotenzial, wenn Bunds fallen) und erlitt offenbar bei Janus hohe Verluste.
www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-07/gross-bets-against-gross-loses
Am 21. April empfahl Bill Gross Bunds als "short of a lifetime"...
...Around a week later, Bunds begin to sell-off hard and as April turned to May, a “cascade of small events created a large splash in a structurally ever-thinner mkt” (to quote HSBC), triggering a veritable rout that sent yields on the 10-year from around 10bps when Gross made his short call to a high of more than 70bps during Thursday’s session. The sell-off has been variously attributed to factors ranging from profit-taking, to scarce liquidity, to the frontrunning of what is expected to be a positive month for EGB supply.
Given the above, one might have expected that Gross, assuming he followed his own advice, has fared well over the last several weeks. Unfortunately, it appears he may have bet that Bunds would remain range-bound over the short-term (perhaps believing that Mario Draghi’s bazooka would be enough to prevent a dramatic sell-off) because as Bloomberg reports, by the end of March, Gross had sold puts on Bund futures in an amount equal to nearly 5% of his fund’s net asset value. Those puts have risen by as much as 11,000% in the case of one contract, and 6,000% in the case of another....
------------------
Das wird also aus einem Spezi mit fast einem halben Jahrhundert Markterfahrung im "neuen Normal" der Notenbank-Anormalität...
www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-07/gross-bets-against-gross-loses
Am 21. April empfahl Bill Gross Bunds als "short of a lifetime"...
...Around a week later, Bunds begin to sell-off hard and as April turned to May, a “cascade of small events created a large splash in a structurally ever-thinner mkt” (to quote HSBC), triggering a veritable rout that sent yields on the 10-year from around 10bps when Gross made his short call to a high of more than 70bps during Thursday’s session. The sell-off has been variously attributed to factors ranging from profit-taking, to scarce liquidity, to the frontrunning of what is expected to be a positive month for EGB supply.
Given the above, one might have expected that Gross, assuming he followed his own advice, has fared well over the last several weeks. Unfortunately, it appears he may have bet that Bunds would remain range-bound over the short-term (perhaps believing that Mario Draghi’s bazooka would be enough to prevent a dramatic sell-off) because as Bloomberg reports, by the end of March, Gross had sold puts on Bund futures in an amount equal to nearly 5% of his fund’s net asset value. Those puts have risen by as much as 11,000% in the case of one contract, and 6,000% in the case of another....
------------------
Das wird also aus einem Spezi mit fast einem halben Jahrhundert Markterfahrung im "neuen Normal" der Notenbank-Anormalität...
(Verkleinert auf 77%)
www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/...nwirtschaft-fort-a-1032576.html
Die Priceline-Aktie ist nach der Berkshire A-Aktie die teuerste.
"The Priceline Group Inc. provides online travel and travel related reservation and search services. The company operates Booking.com, which provides online accommodation reservation services; and priceline.com that offers hotel, rental car, and airline ticket reservations services, as well as vacation packages and cruises through its Name Your Own Price and Express Deals travel services. It also operates Agoda.com, an online accommodation reservation service for consumers in the Asia-Pacific region; and rentalcars.com that offers car rental reservation services. In addition, the company offers KAYAK Websites and mobile apps that allow consumers to compare airline ticket, hotel reservation, and rental car reservation information from various travel Websites at once; and online restaurant reservation services to consumers, as well as reservation management services to restaurants under the OpenTable brand name."
(Quelle: finance.yahoo)
"The Priceline Group Inc. provides online travel and travel related reservation and search services. The company operates Booking.com, which provides online accommodation reservation services; and priceline.com that offers hotel, rental car, and airline ticket reservations services, as well as vacation packages and cruises through its Name Your Own Price and Express Deals travel services. It also operates Agoda.com, an online accommodation reservation service for consumers in the Asia-Pacific region; and rentalcars.com that offers car rental reservation services. In addition, the company offers KAYAK Websites and mobile apps that allow consumers to compare airline ticket, hotel reservation, and rental car reservation information from various travel Websites at once; and online restaurant reservation services to consumers, as well as reservation management services to restaurants under the OpenTable brand name."
(Quelle: finance.yahoo)
(Verkleinert auf 90%)
2016 sind in USA Wahlen. Die Reps (GOP) wollen unbedingt gewinnen, nachdem sie bereits zwei Mal gegen Obama verloren haben. Deshalb werden sie es bis zu den Wahlen auf keinen Fall zulassen, dass die US-Wirtschaft, die gerade in eine weitere Schwächeperiode rutscht, mit weiteren Stimulusprogrammen gepäppelt wird. Wegen des "Gridlock" in Washington (entspricht einer oppositionellen Bundesratsmehrheit in D.) können die Reps alles blockieren.
www.marketwatch.com/story/...ash-of-2016-is-ticking-louder-2015-05-08
...The GOP is hungry for power, very hungry. They lost the presidency twice to Obama. They want it back. And now their collective ego is convinced that with the $889 million backing from the Koch Empire they can beat Hillary and take absolute control of the American democracy: win the presidency, hold Congress, gain the power to issue executive orders and veto legislation, appoint more than 6,000 insiders including cabinet officers, regulatory heads, federal judges, ambassadors, staff bureaucrats, and more. Yes, the GOP knows all that power is on the line in 2016.
Listen: 2016 sounds more and more like McCain/Palin’s 2008 loss when the GOP was also deep in denial about the coming market crash. Money manager Jeremy Grantham’s predictions see beyond the Big Oil-funded GOP’s gross denial, he sees that “around the presidential election or soon after, the market bubble will burst, as bubbles always do, and will revert to its trend value, around half of its peak or worse.”
Yes, a crash of 20%, worse than 2008 and 2000, with the Dow dropping below 10,000. No wonder our brains tune out, turn off, why we prefer happy talk and good news, even if it’s just a pep talk intended to mislead. Like before the 2008 crash when our Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson was telling Fortune, “this is far and away the strongest global economy I’ve seen in my business lifetime.” They don’t even know....
www.marketwatch.com/story/...ash-of-2016-is-ticking-louder-2015-05-08
...The GOP is hungry for power, very hungry. They lost the presidency twice to Obama. They want it back. And now their collective ego is convinced that with the $889 million backing from the Koch Empire they can beat Hillary and take absolute control of the American democracy: win the presidency, hold Congress, gain the power to issue executive orders and veto legislation, appoint more than 6,000 insiders including cabinet officers, regulatory heads, federal judges, ambassadors, staff bureaucrats, and more. Yes, the GOP knows all that power is on the line in 2016.
Listen: 2016 sounds more and more like McCain/Palin’s 2008 loss when the GOP was also deep in denial about the coming market crash. Money manager Jeremy Grantham’s predictions see beyond the Big Oil-funded GOP’s gross denial, he sees that “around the presidential election or soon after, the market bubble will burst, as bubbles always do, and will revert to its trend value, around half of its peak or worse.”
Yes, a crash of 20%, worse than 2008 and 2000, with the Dow dropping below 10,000. No wonder our brains tune out, turn off, why we prefer happy talk and good news, even if it’s just a pep talk intended to mislead. Like before the 2008 crash when our Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson was telling Fortune, “this is far and away the strongest global economy I’ve seen in my business lifetime.” They don’t even know....
www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/...er-rattenlinie-13580277-p2.html
www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/...n-grossbritannien-13574138.html
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
A wave of turmoil is sweeping through sovereign bond markets, setting off the most dramatic gyrations seen in recent years and threatening to spill over into over-heated equity markets.
Yields on German 10-year Bunds spiked violently by almost 20 basis points to 0.78pc in early trading on Thursday as funds scrambled to unwind the so-called “QE trade” in Europe, with powerful ripple effects reaching Japan, Australia, Brazil and even US Treasuries.
“It is absolute pandemonium in the fixed income markets,” said Andrew Roberts, head of European credit at RBS......
www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/...n-global-markets.html
A wave of turmoil is sweeping through sovereign bond markets, setting off the most dramatic gyrations seen in recent years and threatening to spill over into over-heated equity markets.
Yields on German 10-year Bunds spiked violently by almost 20 basis points to 0.78pc in early trading on Thursday as funds scrambled to unwind the so-called “QE trade” in Europe, with powerful ripple effects reaching Japan, Australia, Brazil and even US Treasuries.
“It is absolute pandemonium in the fixed income markets,” said Andrew Roberts, head of European credit at RBS......
www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/...n-global-markets.html
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-08/...election-results
Zugang zu Archiven
www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/...icles_wsite1_1_07/05/2015_549819
www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/...icles_wsite1_1_07/05/2015_549819
It is great to see that some voters in Europe recognize leadership that addresses economic prudence and I believe that Mr Cameron deserves his victory. His containment strategy towards UKIP has worked very well, but he now needs to heed to the message that the British public expects an in/out referendum on Europe.
When you, like me, are used to a proportional representation system, it feels bizarre that the third largest party hardly gains a seat, but still, Nigel Farage has had a lot of beneficial influence on Britain's EU policy.
Hopefully, Brussels also gets the message but I doubt it. The EU never rolls anything back. It continues to amass more and more control in all areas.
The bureaucracy in Brussels has no self-criticism. No regrets. No matter how much and how often it fails. It just continues the roll out of its powers, and it will continue unabated, until someone says enough is enough. Until someone says stop.
The election outcome in Britain is our one chance to say stop!..An EU referendum in Britain is the biggest hope for the real Europe.
When you, like me, are used to a proportional representation system, it feels bizarre that the third largest party hardly gains a seat, but still, Nigel Farage has had a lot of beneficial influence on Britain's EU policy.
Hopefully, Brussels also gets the message but I doubt it. The EU never rolls anything back. It continues to amass more and more control in all areas.
The bureaucracy in Brussels has no self-criticism. No regrets. No matter how much and how often it fails. It just continues the roll out of its powers, and it will continue unabated, until someone says enough is enough. Until someone says stop.
The election outcome in Britain is our one chance to say stop!..An EU referendum in Britain is the biggest hope for the real Europe.
David Cameron’s re-election as Britain’s prime minister increases the risk that the UK will quit the European Union. It is still not a probability. But the possibility will concern business. An exit would degrade Britain’s access to by far its largest market.
Cameron has promised to renegotiate Britain’s relationship with the EU and then hold an “In/Out” referendum on its membership by the end of 2017. .....
blogs.reuters.com/hugo-dixon/2015/05/08/...arked-eu-exit-risk/
Cameron has promised to renegotiate Britain’s relationship with the EU and then hold an “In/Out” referendum on its membership by the end of 2017. .....
blogs.reuters.com/hugo-dixon/2015/05/08/...arked-eu-exit-risk/
Fed Rate Hike droht www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/08/...bs-idUSKBN0NS1DT20150508
www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/08/...ce-idUSKBN0NT19520150508
US-Futures ziehen an, obwohl die Zahlen unter der Erwartung von 228.000 lagen. Die ohnehin schon schwachen März-Zahlen wurden auf 85.000 runter-revidiert.
Schwach bleibt der US-Arbeitsmarkt auch hinsichtlich der Lohnentwicklung (Chart unten).
Die auf 5,5 % gesunkene AL-Quote ist zwar bereits in einem Bereich, in dem die Fed die Leitzinsen erhöhen müsste. ZH merkt jedoch an (unten), dass der 3-Monatsschnitt der neuen Jobs unter 200.000 gefallen ist, was unter der Fed-Schwelle für eine Zinserhöhung liege.
Dann könnte man allerdings auch argumentieren, dass die US-Börsen - gemessen an der schwachen Wirtschaftsentwicklung (inkl. Arbeitsmarkt) - viel zu hoch notieren. Die Makrodaten der letzten Monaten und die (bisherigen) Ergebnisse der SP-500-Firmen waren fast ausnahmslos dürftig.
www.marketwatch.com/story/...ack-in-april-with-223000-gain-2015-05-08
U.S. jobs creation springs back in April with 223,000 gain
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The U.S. churned out a healthy 223,000 new jobs in April, easing for now any worries about a big dropoff in hiring toward the end of a very weak first quarter in which the economy likely contracted.
Most major segments of the economy except for the energy industry added workers last month, the government said Friday, suggesting the second quarter got off to a pretty good start. Stronger job gains also tugged the unemployment rate down to 5.4% from 5.5% to mark the lowest level since mid-2008.
What’s more, the number of people who entered the labor force in search of work also rose, a sign jobs are easier to find. A separate government report has found that job openings are at an all-time high....
Das Haar in der Suppe sind u. a. die rückläufigen Lohnanstiege in USA (Chart unten).
www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-08/...er-wage-gorwth-disappoints-again
While the April payrolls came almost precisely as expected, at 223K, a tiny 5K below the 228K expected, the reason stock are soaring is that the already abysmal March payroll prints was revised even lower to just 85,000, the weakest print since June 2012, and pushing the 3 month average job gain to under 200K, or a level which the Fed has indicated previously it will hardly do much if anything material.
The household survey* did not provide an offsetting boost, with the number of employed Americans rising only 192,000 in April according to the "other" survey.
A.L.: *Die Haushaltsbefragungen - heute bei 192.000 - liefern in der Regel ein genaueres Bild als die Geschäftsbefragungen (business survey oben).
Schwach bleibt der US-Arbeitsmarkt auch hinsichtlich der Lohnentwicklung (Chart unten).
Die auf 5,5 % gesunkene AL-Quote ist zwar bereits in einem Bereich, in dem die Fed die Leitzinsen erhöhen müsste. ZH merkt jedoch an (unten), dass der 3-Monatsschnitt der neuen Jobs unter 200.000 gefallen ist, was unter der Fed-Schwelle für eine Zinserhöhung liege.
Dann könnte man allerdings auch argumentieren, dass die US-Börsen - gemessen an der schwachen Wirtschaftsentwicklung (inkl. Arbeitsmarkt) - viel zu hoch notieren. Die Makrodaten der letzten Monaten und die (bisherigen) Ergebnisse der SP-500-Firmen waren fast ausnahmslos dürftig.
www.marketwatch.com/story/...ack-in-april-with-223000-gain-2015-05-08
U.S. jobs creation springs back in April with 223,000 gain
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The U.S. churned out a healthy 223,000 new jobs in April, easing for now any worries about a big dropoff in hiring toward the end of a very weak first quarter in which the economy likely contracted.
Most major segments of the economy except for the energy industry added workers last month, the government said Friday, suggesting the second quarter got off to a pretty good start. Stronger job gains also tugged the unemployment rate down to 5.4% from 5.5% to mark the lowest level since mid-2008.
What’s more, the number of people who entered the labor force in search of work also rose, a sign jobs are easier to find. A separate government report has found that job openings are at an all-time high....
Das Haar in der Suppe sind u. a. die rückläufigen Lohnanstiege in USA (Chart unten).
www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-08/...er-wage-gorwth-disappoints-again
While the April payrolls came almost precisely as expected, at 223K, a tiny 5K below the 228K expected, the reason stock are soaring is that the already abysmal March payroll prints was revised even lower to just 85,000, the weakest print since June 2012, and pushing the 3 month average job gain to under 200K, or a level which the Fed has indicated previously it will hardly do much if anything material.
The household survey* did not provide an offsetting boost, with the number of employed Americans rising only 192,000 in April according to the "other" survey.
A.L.: *Die Haushaltsbefragungen - heute bei 192.000 - liefern in der Regel ein genaueres Bild als die Geschäftsbefragungen (business survey oben).
Die AL-Quote ist auf 5,4 % gefallen (nicht 5,5 %, wie ich oben schrieb). Damit liegt sie erst recht in einem Bereich, der Nullzinsen nicht mehr rechtfertigt.
Das schreibt auch Reuters in # 346:
U.S. job growth rebounded last month and the unemployment rate dropped to a near seven-year low of 5.4 percent, signs of a pick-up in economic momentum that could keep the Federal Reserve on track to hike interest rates this year.
Das schreibt auch Reuters in # 346:
U.S. job growth rebounded last month and the unemployment rate dropped to a near seven-year low of 5.4 percent, signs of a pick-up in economic momentum that could keep the Federal Reserve on track to hike interest rates this year.
der Arbeitslosenquote relevant, sondern wegen der Verschuldung.
Insofern ist auch eine Fixierung auf die Arbeitslosenzahl irrelevant, genauso wie die Forderung nach einer Anhebung der Zinsen, wenn sich besagte Quote "verbessert".
Solange die Verschuldung dermaßen exorbitant hoch ist, werden die Zinsen nicht angehoben.
Ein QE4 ist wegen des starken $ sehr viel wahrscheinlicher. Wie soll sich denn sonst das "freiste Land der Welt" finanzieren?
Insofern ist auch eine Fixierung auf die Arbeitslosenzahl irrelevant, genauso wie die Forderung nach einer Anhebung der Zinsen, wenn sich besagte Quote "verbessert".
Solange die Verschuldung dermaßen exorbitant hoch ist, werden die Zinsen nicht angehoben.
Ein QE4 ist wegen des starken $ sehr viel wahrscheinlicher. Wie soll sich denn sonst das "freiste Land der Welt" finanzieren?
..If TPA is passed and the TPP deal is sealed, Nike said, it would accelerate its U.S. investments and spur as many as 10,000 domestic manufacturing and engineering jobs, thousands of construction jobs, and up to 40,000 jobs elsewhere in its supply chain over 10 years.
Barack Obama is secretly negotiating a global economic treaty which would destroy thousands of American businesses and millions of good paying American jobs. In other words, it would be the final nail in the coffin for America’s economic infrastructure. Obama knows that if the American people actually knew what was in this treaty that they would be screaming mad, so the negotiations are being done in secret.....
www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-08/...s-made-sneakers-live-feed
schön dass es auch in USA Skeptiker gibt !
Barack Obama is secretly negotiating a global economic treaty which would destroy thousands of American businesses and millions of good paying American jobs. In other words, it would be the final nail in the coffin for America’s economic infrastructure. Obama knows that if the American people actually knew what was in this treaty that they would be screaming mad, so the negotiations are being done in secret.....
www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-08/...s-made-sneakers-live-feed
schön dass es auch in USA Skeptiker gibt !
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