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Am Mittwoch endet aller Voraussicht nach QE. Man kann aktuell beobachten, dass die US-Indizes nicht - wie sonst - "in Vorfreude" auf die Fedsitzung hochlaufen (das war an den Montagen und Dienstagen vor den jeweiligen Fedsitzungen in den letzten Jahren fast IMMER zu beobachten). Statt dessen geht es heute zügig südwärts (Nasdaq -1,33 %).
Offenbar preist der Markt das "sichere" QE-Ende nun bereits im Vorfeld ein.
Hier die Prognosen eines Forbes-Gurus, der bereits im Juni vor den möglichen Folgen des nun "drohenden" QE-Endes warnte:
www.forbes.com/sites/robertlenzner/2014/06/20/...-5-year-bull-market/
Forbes - 20.6.14
The Bull Market Will be Over When QE Ends
The moment of truth for the stock market is close is hand. That"s because the Fed"s tapering off of bond and mortgage purchases is winding down. In three months or so [also jetzt, A.L.] I believe the Fed will no longer be practicing its vaunted Quantitative Easing program to keep interest rates low and push the value of common shares higher. As I wrote in October, it was only in the weeks that QE was active from 2009 on and the Fed was buying that stocks roared ahead. When the Fed was out of the bond market, the stock market softened.
Consider the record. From early 2009 when the S & P 500 index bottomed at 700, the broad stock market average has hit new record peaks above 1900, nearly a tripling of stock prices. This astounding performance would never have happened had the Fed not been pouring $85 billion every month into Treasury securities and mortgage backed bonds which pushed down interest rates and pushed up bond prices as well as stock prices. The goal was to increase consumer balance sheets, contribute to growth in the economy and restore confidence after a devastating recession that could very well have become a depression. And it bloody well worked.
As Bernanke put it in 2010: "Higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can also spur spending. Increased spending will lead to higher incomes and profits that, in a virtuous circle, will further support economic expansion." Be glad it worked toward creating the longest period of recovery in the American economy between recessions since the 1930′s. Just by dint of historic example this bull market should have mostly run its course.
The issue now is whether the momentum in the economy will be slowing down without the stimulus that came from the central banks policies, which were more transparent than ever before and were the fuel for the bull market in stocks. The Fed already has reduced its monthly purchases from $85 billion a month to $35 billion a month. At this rate of reducing purchases by $10 billion a month the Fed is likely to be flat in its acquisitions by the end of September.
What happens when there is no longer a central bank maintaining low interest rates and sending the message that it means to create more wealth through higher prices for common stocks? Will interest rates start to edge higher, reducing the motivation to buy residential homes and take out mortgages? If the economy starts growing at a 3% rate later this year, which some forecast, it could push the cost of money higher. [vgl. # 350].
What will the Fed do with its $4.3 trillion balance sheet? Will it begin letting its bonds mature and not replace them? Or will it use the revenue created to buy a smaller fraction of Treasuries than it has been doing. These are the kind of questions being asked in Wall Street. This is the kind of fresh challenge to policy making that the nation faces for the first time. As Janet Yellen is considered a dove, the odds are that interest rates will be maintained at a lowish level, though perhaps not exactly zero. The financial markets are waiting for some advance direction or hints of a direction from its new leadership.
Here"s Jim Bianco of Arbor Research, a widely respected bond analyst, on what he expected in a report to investors last fall. "QE has been extraordinarily effective in boosting stock prices and the FOMC (the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee) is correct to worry what happens when they stop. Restated, the bull market of the last 4+ years has a lot to do with FOMC stimulus. If history is any guide, its removal would figure to be a profound negative for equity prices."
Offenbar preist der Markt das "sichere" QE-Ende nun bereits im Vorfeld ein.
Hier die Prognosen eines Forbes-Gurus, der bereits im Juni vor den möglichen Folgen des nun "drohenden" QE-Endes warnte:
www.forbes.com/sites/robertlenzner/2014/06/20/...-5-year-bull-market/
Forbes - 20.6.14
The Bull Market Will be Over When QE Ends
The moment of truth for the stock market is close is hand. That"s because the Fed"s tapering off of bond and mortgage purchases is winding down. In three months or so [also jetzt, A.L.] I believe the Fed will no longer be practicing its vaunted Quantitative Easing program to keep interest rates low and push the value of common shares higher. As I wrote in October, it was only in the weeks that QE was active from 2009 on and the Fed was buying that stocks roared ahead. When the Fed was out of the bond market, the stock market softened.
Consider the record. From early 2009 when the S & P 500 index bottomed at 700, the broad stock market average has hit new record peaks above 1900, nearly a tripling of stock prices. This astounding performance would never have happened had the Fed not been pouring $85 billion every month into Treasury securities and mortgage backed bonds which pushed down interest rates and pushed up bond prices as well as stock prices. The goal was to increase consumer balance sheets, contribute to growth in the economy and restore confidence after a devastating recession that could very well have become a depression. And it bloody well worked.
As Bernanke put it in 2010: "Higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can also spur spending. Increased spending will lead to higher incomes and profits that, in a virtuous circle, will further support economic expansion." Be glad it worked toward creating the longest period of recovery in the American economy between recessions since the 1930′s. Just by dint of historic example this bull market should have mostly run its course.
The issue now is whether the momentum in the economy will be slowing down without the stimulus that came from the central banks policies, which were more transparent than ever before and were the fuel for the bull market in stocks. The Fed already has reduced its monthly purchases from $85 billion a month to $35 billion a month. At this rate of reducing purchases by $10 billion a month the Fed is likely to be flat in its acquisitions by the end of September.
What happens when there is no longer a central bank maintaining low interest rates and sending the message that it means to create more wealth through higher prices for common stocks? Will interest rates start to edge higher, reducing the motivation to buy residential homes and take out mortgages? If the economy starts growing at a 3% rate later this year, which some forecast, it could push the cost of money higher. [vgl. # 350].
What will the Fed do with its $4.3 trillion balance sheet? Will it begin letting its bonds mature and not replace them? Or will it use the revenue created to buy a smaller fraction of Treasuries than it has been doing. These are the kind of questions being asked in Wall Street. This is the kind of fresh challenge to policy making that the nation faces for the first time. As Janet Yellen is considered a dove, the odds are that interest rates will be maintained at a lowish level, though perhaps not exactly zero. The financial markets are waiting for some advance direction or hints of a direction from its new leadership.
Here"s Jim Bianco of Arbor Research, a widely respected bond analyst, on what he expected in a report to investors last fall. "QE has been extraordinarily effective in boosting stock prices and the FOMC (the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee) is correct to worry what happens when they stop. Restated, the bull market of the last 4+ years has a lot to do with FOMC stimulus. If history is any guide, its removal would figure to be a profound negative for equity prices."
